This is a pretty basic play, but I like looking at X's and O's, so I decided to draw up Jordan Marshall's 54-yard touchdown run against Purdue.
With a 1st and 10 on their own 46-yard line, Michigan put 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end) on the field. Wide receiver Andrew Marsh lines up wide left, WR Channing Goodwin lines up in the slot to the left, and TE Max Bredeson lines up as a wing to the left side. This is already a good look for Michigan to run the ball, because Purdue only has six guys in the box and Michigan has six guys to block them (5 linemen + Bredeson), not to mention QB Bryce Underwood and RB Jordan Marshall.
Michigan puts Goodwin in jet motion across the formation, which gets the two-high safeties to rotate. The weakside safety rocks down to be prepared for Goodwin coming across the formation, and the strongside safety drops back to the middle of the field. Michigan doesn't even need to block the defensive end to the offense's right since he's a) removed from the play by formation and b) needs to respect the bootleg from Underwood.
The key block here is Bredeson on the nickel. As long as the offensive line can get a hat on a hat, the play just requires the 250 lb. Bredeson to block the 6'0", 195 lb. nickel Smiley Bradford in space. With Bredeson making contact and blowing Bradford out of the way, now Marshall just has to beat the deep safety to the alley, which he does.
It's fight song time.
How about Crippen? He had to reach a 1-tech, and did so with great effect!
ReplyDeleteIt looks to my eye as the deep safety took a bad angle on Marshall. If I could post a picture in the comments, I'd show you the moment where, to my eye, a good angle would have resulted in a tackle. Which leads to me to ask: does Jordan Marshall have a "sneaky fifth gear" thing where he can accelerate in a step or two and punish guys for bad angles?
ReplyDeleteI think you answered your own question
DeleteJordan Marshall is no Justice Haynes when it comes to top end speed. But dude is faster than Deveon and Hassan, two bruisers that did quite well here. He may not be as strong as Mullings, but is faster than him too. He's not as fast as Don, but the vision & balance have been upgraded. He may not be Blake the Great yet, but he's bigger. I think Zach Charbonett is a good comp. Really good to great in many attributes, if not as ideal in some that we've seen from his predecessors
I don't think it's that sneaky that he has a fifth gear. He ran a 10.74 in the 100 meters in high school. But one or two steps? No, I don't think so. I don't think his acceleration is that great. He takes a few steps to get up to speed, but his top-end speed is still pretty good. He seems like a guy who would probably run the 40 in like 4.48, which is faster than Blake Corum but not absolutely blazing.
DeleteI think Haynes is the guy who can get up to full speed quicker. So if Marshall can do it in 1 or 2 steps, that would mean Haynes can get up to full speed in 0 or 1 step.
This is one reason I think Marshall is a good fit for outside zone, because his speed matches up well with how the blocks set up. If you're too fast, sometimes you get too close to the line and can't adjust properly. And if you're too slow, the defense can clog up the running lanes before you get to the line.
Did the deep safety just make a mistake? Or did the deep safety not have a good sense for the speed that Marshall possesses? (I'm trying to figure out what happened there ... to my eye, the deep safety had him if his angle led Marshall by a foot or so, but it looks like the safety aimed his body at a spot that Marshall cleared a moment earlier.)
DeleteI don't know the exact answer, but #21 got a 63 PFF grade for the game
DeleteOverall for the season he's decent, and 87 against the Run / 74 Tackling
Sometimes even a good player whiffs
The deep safety was going in the wrong direction at the snap. As I mentioned in the post, the motion back toward a 2x2 set made the weak safety rock down and the strong safety roll deep. When the ball is snapped, you can still see the strong safety rotating back toward the middle of the field. He's out of position and going in the wrong direction to fill the alley.
DeleteThunder, at the end of the season, it will be nice if you could do a ranking of the fantastic RBs we had in the past few years Blake vs Haskins vs Haynes vs Mulllings vs Marshall. Just a suggestion…
ReplyDeleteYou know, it's interesting that you bring that up, because last week during the bye week, I started to update my running back rankings. I haven't updated them in a few years to include Haskins, Corum, Mullings, etc.
DeleteYOU WON'T BELIEVE WHO COMES IN AT #7!!!
#clickbait
I look forward to reading that!
DeleteBredeson is so great in space. The other big contributor to my eyes here is Frazier at LT pushing his guy (DE) way out, creating the big hole for Marshall to run through full speed and also allowing El Hadi to move to the LB decisively. I can't tell if El Hadi even got a hand on the end to execute the double or if Frazier did it all himself.
ReplyDeleteI have 2 (amateur) questions:
1. Does the End make a mistake to let himself get shoved out by Frazier? Or is Frazier making an above average block?
2. Would Kuzdzal or Parker have done the same here? Marshall doesn't do much other than run fast here, to my eye. But BK is supposedly faster than Marshall and Parker is supposed to be a 4.5 guy like JM.
I think it's safe to assume that a RB with really good speed scores on this one ... unless they trip on grass
DeleteYep. I think any number of RBs on the current or past roster or on past rosters could have scored here. Maybe not slower backs like Hart, Smith or Haskins but hard to say. They might have stiff armed or juked to get the same result if 4.5 vs 4.7 40 times was the difference.
DeleteHart & Haskins were RB1s on great teams. If they can't score on a gash THAT big, RB definitely matters
DeleteHart got caught from behind multiple times. He was still an excellent RB. He produced in other ways, making guys miss tackles, or more often deflect off him, generating a lot of YAC. He wasn't very fast though. Different ways to be effective. Different flavors. Or maybe a tea spoon vs a soup spoon if you prefer that analogy.
DeleteJust saw this PFF stat: MICHIGAN run game is at 2.6ypc Before Contact (9th in the nation). This follows observations of weekly improvement from the OL, especially since that first Bye
ReplyDeleteJoe Moore? No (especially not early). But we've enjoyed some big lanes as OL wear down opponents
https://youtu.be/bnzoOsTxGXo?si=nqtQhvdRqhWnelSu
Yes, I have been impressed with the OL development this year, especially with the injuries. They weren't doing great in the run game against Oklahoma, but I think Oklahoma's defense is pretty good. But since then, the OL has steadily improved in the run. I think they've improved in pass protection, too, but that's still too weak of an issue to get them the Joe Moore Award.
DeleteI don't know whether to heap credit on Grant Newsome or maybe suggest that Juan Castillo is the secret sauce. I suspect that Castillo is being a giant help behind the scenes.
No question. Probably the #1 most encouraging development in the program this year.
DeleteAfter last year's OL debacle this did not feel like a sure thing. Despite Moore's background. But Moore/Lindsey/Newsome/Castillo all deserve credit. Castillo was hyped up in some corners in the offseason and that seemed like a great fit to bring in an analyst to mentor a young coach like Newsome. Moore realistically does not have time.
Harbaugh, like his coach/mentor/role model Bo, had built his Stanford and Michigan programs around dominant OLs. Last year that looked like it was falling apart but to Moore's credit they have regrouped and done so without relying on any of the big freshman recruits. Moore is of course influenced by Harbaugh, and one degree of separation from Bo, but it appears that the tradition and identity maybe back on track.
Especially encouraging is that it is happening in the midst of multiple big injuries (albeit not at OC where Crippen has been a rock) and happening with mostly younger players like Sprague, Guaranera, and Frazier.
Agree on Castillo
DeleteMy first impression was negative: ElHadi, Crippen and Norton got shoved around. Link still had too many mistakes. Sprague was green
After OU but especially since that first Bye, they found stuff Crippen could handle. Norton was upgraded with Guanara. Link improved a bit, and Frazier has shown no dropoff. Sprague has been really good
ElHadi isn't awful, but I don't think he's very good either. Efobi was fine, perhaps equal (not as experienced or a leader, but stronger in run blocking)
Castillo is my guy. Maybe keep him around another year and Newsome will continue to learn
*I'd love to have this data (Yards before contact) for 2o15-19. My impression is that - at least lately - this OL is right up there with some of the best non-JoeMoore OLs we enjoyed under Harbaugh. Probably a gap behind 2o23, but right there with the rest
You can see various rush stats at the link below and choose the year. Not exactly YBC but gets at similar ideas of evaluating the OL statistically. The advanced rush stats generally assume OL gets more credit in the first few yards (near the LOS) and more blame for negative carries while RBs get more credit for stuff 5 yards past the LOS. Simplified and imperfect but probably better than say YPC for evaluating an OL or RB.
Deletehttps://collegefootballdata.com/team/Michigan
"One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is isolating the degree to which each of the 22 men on the field is responsible for the result of a given play. Nowhere is this as significant as the running game, in which one player runs while up to nine other players—including not just linemen but also wideouts and tight ends—block in different directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring rushing—yards, touchdowns, yards per carry—differentiate between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics DVOA and DYAR.
We do, however, have enough play-by-play data amassed that we can try to separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effects of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the opposing defense. A team might have two running backs in its stable: RB A, who averages 3.0 yards per carry, and RB B, who averages 3.5 yards per carry. Who is the better back? Imagine that RB A doesn’t just average 3.0 yards per carry, but gets exactly 3 yards on every single carry, while RB B has a highly variable yardage output: sometimes 5 yards, sometimes minus-2 yards, sometimes 20 yards. The difference in variability between the runners can be exploited not only to determine the difference between the runners, but the effect the offensive line has on every running play.
At some point in every long running play, the running back passes all of his offensive line blocks as well as additional blocking backs or receivers. From there on, the rest of the play is dependent on the runner’s own speed and elusiveness and the speed and tackling ability of the opposing defense. If Nick Chubb breaks through the line for 50 yards, avoiding tacklers all the way to the goal line, his offensive line has done a great job—but they aren’t responsible for the majority of the yards gained. The trick is figuring out exactly how much they are responsible for."
https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-explainer
"one of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is ... "
DeleteYep, that's why it's important to know the game, and actually watch the plays unfold, not just a boxscores
Extremely important!
Delete*the UFR for purdont is out. The way they write about Marshall's improvement in vision & patience, and his ability to power through tackles from multiple defenders at once describes a RB who matters. Jasper Parker is discussed too, and the take there was opposite. Kuzdal had a good night but is a Guy not a Dude: behind the same OL, against the same defense, on the same night
ReplyDeleteA RunFirstRunOften offense like MICHIGAN is more likely to have TWO RBs that matter than none. The Haynes pickup was a brilliant move by Moore
NW:
ReplyDeleteBlake Frazier jersey & pants sag off his thin body. Impressive what they've gotten out of him
Third play was playaction to no one. Two weeks off, and the third (scripted) play was unknown by our QB or RB
McCulley is a better athlete than I expected, but I'm not sure about his football IQ. Either him or Bryce are too often on the wrong page
That opening drive was sooo 2o25. Just almost
Another 2o25 moment: defense opens w/a good drive, and SpTms gives up the 1st Down
Zeke Berry got outMANNED on that no catch. Puney NW WR wanted it more
Bryce has been HOT ... Marsh is a true playmaker. We may only need a WR2 from the portal if he continues to develop
Hausman absolutely steamrolled the poor NW RB on their second drive
El Hadi, a RSSr Captain, gets pushed back far too often for my liking
NW only had four drives in the Half. Rather than rotate our starters back in, we rotated to third stringers, allowing some Wildcat momentum
Seems like we have this, but it's a one point game. I said after OU that we should expect rock fights, nailbiters, tossups. Here we are
GO BLUE
NW D was a lot better than we've faced recently. Guys were in position and tackling was sound
DeleteOn Marshall's big run, he's a step slow ... Haynes gets six; Corum too. Don, if he sees the hole, hits the hole and doesn't trip. RB matters!
Semaj: five broken tackles for ONE yard, and then fumbles ... a pLaYmAkEr, but not for MICHIGAN
Hillman has been wrapping up. If he was indeed benched v Washington, that was a great move
Crazy to say out loud, but I'm relieved that Joe Taylor is our Kick Returner. Get him on Punts too please
On Marshall's second TD, he needs to learn from Blake the Great: TWO hands on the ball
Defense played well, but Preston Stone = Davis Warren
Ryan Day doesn't need to prove his team's toughness. Just leave the game to Smith & Tate; our Secondary can't stop them
Another attempt to McCulley where it seems he could/should have adjusted to the ball, but continued to run his route. Definitely not a master of his trade
Bryce, Damn. Even if the LB doesn't get the second INT, their Safety would have. Terrible second half
Fantastic PBU by Jordan Young, but why is a TrFR back there???
I wanted them to go for it on 4th, but GD it Bryce
Cam Brandt escapes with a facemask ... should not be out there
OL was powerful on that last series!
Kuzdal has the patience & speed. Is he durable enough for Maryland? Can we please get Haynes back for The Game?
#RBmatters
Escape and advance. It's all we can ask for this year
#tossups
GO BLUE
I am glad that je93 started with complimenting NW defense. I thought Northwestern defense, which Klatt call “Iowa-lite”, did what it was intended to do. Create some confusion on more talented offense in the hope of creating turnovers. Undersized but disciplined.
DeleteUnlike many fans who are screaming for Chip Lindsay’s removal and the lack of improvement on Underwood, I thought the offense played very well today. We almost gained 500 yards! We would have won this game handily if not for Special Teams. Even the All American Zvada has gotten the Special Team bug, missing a chip shot from 35 yards.
Kundzal hands-off gaffe on 4th and 1 is reminiscent of Mulling ls fumbling against TCU. This is what you get when you play your 3rd string RB. Mulling got over it. Kundzal will too.
I thought our OL played well enough that Kundzal gets a wide gaping hole. Kundzal is good enough to gain yards on NW defense. I also don’t have an issue with the coaches letting Bryce make some of these RPO decisions. Better make mistakes against NW than against OSU. Complain again when we still see the same errors next year.
Haynes is out for the season. If Marshall is not back for the Game, the only way we are winning that game is if Bryce can mimic Gardner’s Superman effort.
Semaj: he deserves better than this. This is a guy who has lost confidence and trying too hard to prove himself. Coaches should sit him down one game and get his head right for the game. He was way better as a freshman. Get him to focus on fundamentals of securing the ball. Andrew Marsh as a punt returner?
No one should be blaming Lindsay. He's the best OC we've had in a long time, and it shows with the stats we get despite a young & rotating OL, a TrFR WR1, TrFR QB, carousel at TE and third RB ... the long season has gotten the best of Bryce. The talent pops, but it was obvious he needed the Bye, and then slipped up in the second half. That's the freshman 'worse case scenario' we identified preseason, showing up late
DeleteThe fumble wasn't on Kuzdal, it was on Bryce. Neck high give, and never transferred control
OL was really good on the ground again. Sprague had a couple issues, and I'm no fan of ElHadi. But the holes were there to win running. If fans want RunFirstRunOnly, we will continue to have a hard time getting WRs through recruiting & Portal. I'm perfectly fine with Chip building our Receiving room in game, as well as on the recruiting trail
Not surprisingly, the MGo podcast agrees w/my NW take:
DeleteWith Marsh exceeding expectations, we may only need a WR2 from the Portal
We're a RunFirstRunOften team, and NIL might be better spent on the Defensive side, specifically the Line