tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post2726048692734766189..comments2024-03-28T20:09:43.455-04:00Comments on Touch the Banner: Feedback Requested: Potential Rating SystemUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-22545659763725998512011-05-24T13:45:09.361-04:002011-05-24T13:45:09.361-04:00Here is the player rating system that I use. It us...Here is the player rating system that I use. It uses the whole scale and could probably be adapted to recruits (say, based on likely performance as an upperclassman):<br /><br />10: the best in the country at his position<br />9: outstanding starter, probably all-conference and at least 3rd-team all-America<br />8: very good starter, probably at least 3rd-team all-conference<br />7: good starter, probably at least honorable mention all-conference<br />6: above-average starter (relative to the B1G, not to previous UM teams)<br />5: average starter<br />4: below-average starter or above-average backup<br />3: average backup (possible low-rotation player on average team) or special teamer<br />2: emergency player, may see meaningful snaps if someone gets hurt<br />1: plays only in garbage time<br /><br />For example, as recruits Tate Forcier probably would have been about an 8 and Ray Vinopal a 4.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-30030374698593250332011-05-23T19:22:59.935-04:002011-05-23T19:22:59.935-04:00I'd say keep the letter grade as a separate is...I'd say keep the letter grade as a separate issue entirely. I agree that 9.6A is goofy but 96A isn't much better. Just say the player is a 96 or 9.6 and say the impact to Michigan is an B or whatever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-16179104835187788632011-05-23T19:12:29.377-04:002011-05-23T19:12:29.377-04:00@ Lankownia
I think you're right that I shoul...@ Lankownia<br /><br />I think you're right that I should establish a baseline for an average Michigan recruit. Perhaps I can attach a player from recent years with each category so people have a reference point. For example, Jake Long would be in the 90's, Jonas Mouton might be in the 80's, etc. (Keep in mind that those are just examples, not actual ratings.)Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-45487791213322077152011-05-23T19:04:26.533-04:002011-05-23T19:04:26.533-04:00@ Meeechigan Dan, Lankownia, and Anonymous
I do l...@ Meeechigan Dan, Lankownia, and Anonymous<br /><br />I do like the idea of perhaps adding a letter at the end that represents some sort of expression of how the guy fits with the team. Obviously, I would try to make it clear what each of those letters means.<br /><br />However, adding a letter to the end makes me MORE inclined to use a 100-point scale. For example, "96A" looks less confusing than "9.6A." I'm trying to create something simple and easily understood, and I think that decimal point goes a bit too far in the opposite direction. I'd rather go for clarity than just to do something weird to spite Rivals/247/ESPN/Scout.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-80140232596425001632011-05-23T18:51:14.195-04:002011-05-23T18:51:14.195-04:00I kind of like M-Dan's idea (never thought I&#...I kind of like M-Dan's idea (never thought I'd say that...) Definitely can give a guy an objective numerical rank and then add a Grade for impact to Michigan or overall excitement/relief level.<br /><br />Guys like Pipkin and Washington are potentially going to be freshman year starters - A+. Meanwhile, the linebackers like Ringer and Bolden, while they may be nice prospects, are just going to be added to the mix - C. Kiel may be the #1 QB in the country, but for Michigan he might just be a B+ addition because of Gardner/Morris. Royce-Jenkins might be a low-level 4-star, but he started some big time momentum that helped land Ross and Richardson.<br /><br />-LankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-62812195786305696572011-05-23T18:42:42.175-04:002011-05-23T18:42:42.175-04:00@Anon 4:32 wasn't me, but I agree. The decima...@Anon 4:32 wasn't me, but I agree. The decimal point may seem superfluous, but it helps distinguish the category the guy belongs in. 81 vs 79 - no body cares. But if being in the 8 category vs the 7 category is understood to mean something (like having 5 stars instead of 4) then its a worth making that distinction.<br /><br />-LankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-4022056598491567072011-05-23T18:34:30.405-04:002011-05-23T18:34:30.405-04:00I think what is missing from all these rating syst...I think what is missing from all these rating systems is a couple intangibles that we all look for and understand, but are not included in one-number-fits-all numeric ratings: instincts, readiness to play, value to the team.<br /><br />For example: Ondre Pipkins might be the same number recruit as Brionte Dunn (just suppose), but Pipkins would be twice as valuable to this team right now. Pharoah Brown might be the same number recruit as Royce Jenkins-Stone, but he is perhaps a year or two behind Stone given when he actually is productive on the field. James Ross might be the same number as an NFL body physical freak at LB, but his instincts are way better.<br /><br />I think in addition to the raw number, you should follow with a letter or two for these critical intangibles. Maybe readiness to play and value to the team. So Ondre Pipkins (me likey) might be a 96AA (because he is ready to play and the team desperately needs him).<br /><br />Just trying to suggest a system that is customized for Michigan recruiting and would increase the value of the review. Doesn't have to be letters, but could be a color system (for readiness to play - blue would be right away; yellow, probable redshirt; red, two-year project, etc.)Meeechigan Danhttp://www.logictimes.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-89907065785068799762011-05-23T18:33:04.936-04:002011-05-23T18:33:04.936-04:00All good points. I just find it kind of pretentio...All good points. I just find it kind of pretentious to have a 100 point scale - though its certainly better than the weird rivals number that no one understands.<br /><br />I guess the main thing I'd like to know is what a baseline for an average or typical M recruit is. If you rank a guy a 77 but Michigan typically lands 82s then I might take something away from that. I think with any number system you want to know what it means for your team. With 3-5 stars you kind of have an idea (average prospect, strong prospect, stud) about the individual. I don't have a strong sense of what ESPN or 247's rankings on the 100 point scale mean as objective values (though I assume something in the 90s is pretty good). I tend to just go to their rankings and see if a guy is top 10 at his position or what.<br /><br />-LankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-40267994999642424792011-05-23T18:21:14.861-04:002011-05-23T18:21:14.861-04:00@ ryan 11:51 a.m.
Thanks a lot. That's quite...@ ryan 11:51 a.m.<br /><br />Thanks a lot. That's quite a compliment.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-84260913400646743832011-05-23T18:09:47.305-04:002011-05-23T18:09:47.305-04:00@ Lankownia 3:20 p.m.
You wrote a lot, and thanks...@ Lankownia 3:20 p.m.<br /><br />You wrote a lot, and thanks for the thoughtful feedback.<br /><br />re: NFL stuff<br />Part of the reason behind rating these kids based on NFL potential is that I pay a lot of attention to the NFL Draft, NFL football, etc. As a fan it's something I like projecting, and I always do some sort of NFL Draft Preview sort of thing. I think a large number of fans want to know who has "next level potential", and again, college success at Michigan likely means a high draft position. Antwaan Randle-El and Tim Tebow were both fairly high picks, even though they weren't prototypical NFL quarterbacks; and they were "5-stars" based on college production, too. If for no other reason, NFL potential will be included simply because it's my blog and I'll do what I want. :o)<br /><br />I guess I don't see the difference between naming a kid an 88 versus an 8.8. They're both the same thing.<br /><br />I do kind of like the idea of giving a mid-level player a 50/5/C grade, but again...I would hate to name a kid a "1" or an "F+." And as a Michigan fan site, there are probably some Michigan recruits who would get wind that "Hey, some Michigan fan just gave you an F+ ranking on his site." And even if the kid doesn't give a rat's ass what I have to say - which he shouldn't - that would still hurt a little bit to be told that a Michigan fan thinks you'll be a failure. I'm a fan of constructive criticism (which is why I do appreciate all of this feedback), and as a Michigan fan, I think giving a grade of F+ probably isn't constructive. Getting a 52/100 isn't quite as demeaning (IMO) as getting an "F", even if they mean the same thing.<br /><br />I know I criticize Rivals and Scout for not using the 1-star ranking (and rarely using the 2-star category), but they're also "objective" sites that rate every BCS-caliber recruit around the country. And like you said, Go Blue Wolverine can say to a kid, "Our national analyst gave you a 3-star rating," but when it comes from a Michigan fan site, it's "This particular Michigan fan thinks you suck." It's a tightrope for me, so I'm trying to figure out a good balance.<br /><br />I'm not as familiar with 247's rankings, but ESPN puts virtually all the kids in the 77-81 range. Only the "elite of the elite" get a 90+ ranking. I'm hoping the kids I rate will span a larger range than from 77-81.<br /><br />I do think the categories need to be slightly more defined, but yeah, right now I'm leaning toward a 100-point scale. A 10-point scale would be fine, too, but like I said...there's not much of a difference between those two things.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-90828278197846136432011-05-23T16:32:34.602-04:002011-05-23T16:32:34.602-04:00What about something along the lines of the 100 po...What about something along the lines of the 100 point scale but instead use the decimal point to point out differences. You could in general just use the whole and half numbers, so 8.0, 8.5, 9.0 etc, and if you have some prospect who is a notch below what you consider a 9.0 you give them an 8.9 or 8.8. With a 100 point scale, people might be more focused on the second number, and as we all know recruiting isn't an exact science, so pushing the focus to the first number, making the focus a bit more general might be better.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-17172494166215937152011-05-23T15:41:25.207-04:002011-05-23T15:41:25.207-04:00I agree with what you are saying about the idea of...I agree with what you are saying about the idea of a 91 vs. a 93. On a 1-10 scale, you would have to give some recruits the same number (a 9 for both Ross and Jenkins-Stone without differentiating the two). Introducing the 1-100 allows you to give a little extra for the recruit that you like just a little bit more - exactly what you are trying to achieve with YOUR ranking system!<br /><br />I like the 1-100 even if only the upper half will get used. I follow your blog and am interested in whether you like Ross or Jenkins-Stone just a little bit more to separate them by a point or two, say. This can also make it more interesting when we go back and revisit your rankings after watching a player develop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-82535444636553249732011-05-23T15:20:01.509-04:002011-05-23T15:20:01.509-04:00I say go for it Thunder. However, if you do, be pr...I say go for it Thunder. However, if you do, be prepared for more people arguing with what you say. Since you're a one-man show, there's not hiding behind a team of 'analysts' or 'scouts' when people take umbrage or call you out for your mistakes. You're a big boy, I'm just saying...be prepared for people to view your rankings as an excuse to criticize you.<br />Here are my thoughts, many echoing the previous thoughts. <br />Re: NFL potential.<br />I don't think it should matter. College football is a big enough deal on it's own. If a 5'10 QB can win a Heisman in college then he should be a 5 star, regardless of what his NFL career looks like. Denard won't be an NFL QB (probably) but he's still a superstar (5-star) college player.<br />RE: Clarity<br />Regardless of what numbers you choose I agree that the most important thing is that you clearly define the criteria and the categories. Everyone should know what the rankings mean.<br />Re: Number of Categories<br />The first question I’d ask is: how many categories do you think you can realistically define with clarity?<br />I kind of like the star system, but wished they used all 5 stars instead of 95% of recruits falling into either a 3 or 4 star category. 2 or 3 categories for most prospects is clearly too few, but I’d argue 100 is too many - false precision. How many guys do you think you’ll realistically grade. If its 300 or so, do you really need a 100 point scale? You might as well just rank them in order by position.<br />Re: Inclusion<br />Agree with the guy who said 0-49 is a waste. Why bother? You’re not ranking those guys anyway. Don’t bother including categories for guys who don’t get BCS offers. None of your readers care. The majority of people reading this stuff are going to be Big 10 fans or other BCS conference caliber football fans – so cater to that. An average BCS caliber recruit could get an average rank on the midpoint of your scale. <br />Taking it a step further, this is a Michigan blog -- so why not just base your scale on Michigan recruits? Historically, an average recruit is a high 3-star or low 4-star player. Make that guy a 5 out of 10 points (e.g. Henson and Mallet were 10s – obvious 5 stars. Morales and Vinopal are 1s or zeros. If a guy is in the bottom, say, 5% of a historical norm for Michigan football recruits, he should get the lowest ranking possible.)<br />RE: Scale<br />I kind of like letter grades. Between A+ and F- you have 18 possible categories and that seems about right. But there is an association problem with grades and grade inflation and whatnot, so you get people peeved when recruits are Cs because they’re average.<br />The nice thing is that you can easily define 6 categories (A to F) and then use the +/- for some additional differentiation.<br />I’d ask, again, how many categories can you clearly define? You had 7 in your post.<br />My suggestion: <br />Use a 10 points scale. 10 is clear, concise, understandable, and differentiates you from the stars and 1-100 (which ESPN uses). Make it 10 categories and clearly define each. If you think 10 categories is not enough definition within the category via decimals, .5s, or pluses and minuses. <br />I suggest a 10 point scale, dividing each recruit into where they would be in the historical norm of Michigan or BCS recruits. 5 = 50% i.e. average. 10 = top 10% (probably a 5 star). <br />If you want to get into saying X guy is better than Y guy because he’s an inch taller, theres no harm in just ranking the players within a category, after you give them a number.<br />Lankownia<br />P.S. Seems like you’ve mostly already decided on the 100 point thing. How would this be any different from ESPN’s scale or 247’s scale? They both have stars but also use a 1-100 scale. I’d at least suggest using a decimal. That way a guy who is an 8.1 you could clearly say the 8 means “____” and the .1 means he’s on the low end of that category. You can call that 81, I suppose, but again, it doesn’t differentiate you at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-67868325214274399012011-05-23T13:55:51.559-04:002011-05-23T13:55:51.559-04:00@ Remember Bo 12:40 p.m.
Personally, I think a 17...@ Remember Bo 12:40 p.m.<br /><br />Personally, I think a 17 (a.k.a "high 8") would be way too confusing. I think the goal is to simplify my ratings, and 100 points is an easier scale to understand than something like that. Perhaps a scale of 1-50 might be enough, but again, I think some people (including me) are leary of the connotation of giving someone a rating of, say, 6 on a scale of 1-50.<br /><br />The difference between a 91 and a 93 might just be a half-step of quickness or a little nugget of leadership I see on film, maybe even personal preference because I like the way a kid speaks to the media. Again, I think if my ratings are so accurate that we end up splitting hairs between my 91 and 93, I'll consider it a success.<br /><br />For example, let's say I gave Jake Long a 91 but Brandon Graham a 93. Well, Long was the #1 pick and Graham was the #10 pick (I believe), so technically my ratings would have been a little off...but I'm still going to be dancing a little victory dance.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-9389866634576094432011-05-23T13:50:02.111-04:002011-05-23T13:50:02.111-04:00Scout tosses out 5 stars like confetti and if you&...Scout tosses out 5 stars like confetti and if you're a 3 star you're either rated by national depth at that position or you get a NR. But NR kids don't get 2 pr 1 stars, they get a different type of 3 star which is dumb. Still the 3, 4, or 5 stars I just don't get. "What size drink would you like? We have Large, Extra-Large, and Super-Extra-Large." Isn't the large really a small then? Subdividing kids by what type of 3 and 4 star is dumb, they should just start using 2 and 1 stars.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16110824687189541761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-71791017978830221972011-05-23T13:40:34.793-04:002011-05-23T13:40:34.793-04:00@ KB 12:21 p.m.
I absolutely won't have a set...@ KB 12:21 p.m.<br /><br />I absolutely won't have a set number of 4-star types, 5-star types, etc. Scout is the worst at that, and it annoys me. If I think every one of Michigan's recruits will bomb, I'll give them all low ratings.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-86680792369871845992011-05-23T13:37:46.222-04:002011-05-23T13:37:46.222-04:00@ KB 12:18 p.m.
I agree that college success and ...@ KB 12:18 p.m.<br /><br />I agree that college success and NFL success are separate things, but ultimately, the vast majority of FBS players aim for the next level. As a fan, I want to know if the players my school is bringing in have the talent to be first round picks. In retrospect, Denard Robinson, Eric Crouch, and Tom Brady all should have been in the 90's (knowing what we know now). They're very different players, but they were all very successful. And as I mentioned in one of the comments above, if we're splitting hairs in four years because I gave Ross a 93* and he turned into an All-American and 2nd-round pick, but I only gave Jenkins-Stone a 91* and he wasn't an All-American but turned into a 1st rounder...well...I'll be pretty happy if my rankings are that accurate.<br /><br />I see what you're saying; I just think it's hard to come up with a solution that satisfies all the cravings...aside from giving two rankings for every player, which sounds like it would be confusing and cumbersome.<br /><br />*These ratings are not meant to indicate my actual ratings of Ross and Jenkins-Stone, since the system hasn't even been finalized yet. They are purely hypothetical.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-32478316416704985082011-05-23T13:24:21.919-04:002011-05-23T13:24:21.919-04:00@ Anonymous 11:31 a.m.
1. I see what you're ...@ Anonymous 11:31 a.m.<br /><br />1. I see what you're saying about the solution looking for a problem. I guess perhaps I didn't frame the post in the right way, but I mentioned the issues I have with Rivals and ESPN and what I'm trying to correct. It's not that their ratings don't have any value. It's just that there's very little differentiation, and what's the point of doing my own rankings if they're going to be mirror images of Rivals/Scout? I think the larger scale allows me some flexibility to differentiate between a high 4-star and a low 4-star where those two players aren't necessarily seen as equals.<br /><br />2. My predictive skills aren't that accurate that I can necessarily see the difference between a 72 and a 73. However, sometimes you might have two similarly rated players but one small trait that puts Player X above Player Y. All other things being equal, Cornerback X might be an inch taller than Cornerback Y. Such a scale will allow me to say, "I prefer Cornerback X over Cornerback Y, which is why I gave one a 73 and the other a 72." And while it's true that most rating systems use a 5-point scale (my job does it, recruiting services, hotel ratings, etc.), I'm trying to create something different and (in my opinion) more useful. I see the advantages and simplicity of the 5-point scale, but I also see some major flaws.<br /><br />3. If a kid has Heisman potential, he would most likely be ranked somewhere in the 90's. I don't think college success (i.e. success at Michigan) is mutually exclusive from NFL success. All-Americans at Michigan typically get picked high in the NFL draft. And since I only plan to rank kids who are committed to Michigan or who are seriously considering Michigan, that's the frame of reference that I'll use. In my original proposal above, a ranking in the 90's would suggest that a player would likely be a 1st round pick or an All-American. If a kid is an All-American at Michigan, he'll likely be a 1st round pick; and if he's a 1st round pick, he was probably an All-American. And if somebody comes back at me in three years and says, "You ranked Joe Schmoe as a 92, and he got picked #10 but wasn't an All-American," my response would probably be...<br /><br />...What's your point? If anyone's upset that my All-America choice wasn't also a #1 pick or vice versa, I'll chalk that up as a win in my book. :o)<br /><br />Thanks for the feedback. I don't know whether it will change my final system or not, but it gives me some food for thought on how to frame/portray the rankings.Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-46033505067701975682011-05-23T13:02:48.678-04:002011-05-23T13:02:48.678-04:00@ Jasper 10:36 a.m.
Thanks!@ Jasper 10:36 a.m.<br /><br />Thanks!Thunderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09708792562446136381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-27995692612523982692011-05-23T12:40:22.538-04:002011-05-23T12:40:22.538-04:00What if you were to reduce the scale a bit? My que...What if you were to reduce the scale a bit? My question would be how you'd be able to determine a 91 vs a 93...<br />Perhaps a smaller scale (even something to 50 or 20) would reduce that a bit, because you run the risk of having the first number (in the tens column) outweigh the second digit.<br />You could even use 1-10, and rate people "high" or "low" as a comment. Taking the scale to twenty would make it unnecessary to use the high or low - for example, 17 is a "high" 8, 18 is a straight 9, and so on.Remember Bohttp://maizenbrew.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-27304839796201232112011-05-23T12:21:22.239-04:002011-05-23T12:21:22.239-04:00Also, if you create a system please don't do w...Also, if you create a system please don't do what Rivals does where a 4 star doesn't mean the same thing from year to year. Don't say you need x number of 5 stars and x number of 4 stars. Just make it be a 4 is a 4 is a 4 and if one year there are tons more than the next so be it. It's not like the NFL draft where somebody has to be a Top 10 pick even if the talent isn't there.KBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00140063912226053155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-60870769617010349322011-05-23T12:18:50.566-04:002011-05-23T12:18:50.566-04:00I think NFL potential should be used but not be th...I think NFL potential should be used but not be the key in the ratings. Eric Crouch was a productive college QB. What are Denard's chances of being an NFL QB? But on a good Michigan team could he lead us to a Big Ten title? Odoms is a good college WR but he has 1/2 the NFL potential that Arrington had. College success should be the key when we're looking at HS recruits. However, NFL potential tends to speak to a players projections but they might not necessarily ever be an NFL fit. <br /><br />I think you've said you like Ross more than RJS but Ross' height limits his NFL appeal. That shouldn't matter for a college recruit.KBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00140063912226053155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-20168170388344305082011-05-23T12:14:02.874-04:002011-05-23T12:14:02.874-04:00I like where your aiming here Magnus. Services all...I like where your aiming here Magnus. Services all invent their own mystery number and kids get to be a 5.45 or and 82 (very good) and you need to learn new ones for each website, but in college these kids all land at different plateaus and highlighting which one they're likely to end up in makes too much sense and is why no-one has ever done it before. ELITE Prep would rather give kids 4 2/3's purple ducks and never be wrong because they'll never given them a REAL benchmark rating. :o)Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16110824687189541761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-14773596599531553382011-05-23T11:51:45.805-04:002011-05-23T11:51:45.805-04:00None of these objections are really significant. ...None of these objections are really significant. Looks good. Make it so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2440694009017367434.post-54544229465191428552011-05-23T11:51:27.964-04:002011-05-23T11:51:27.964-04:00Mangus, love the blog! Keep up the good work. I...Mangus, love the blog! Keep up the good work. I'm actually starting to favor it more than mgoblog. <br /><br />Others have voiced concerns of using a 100 point scale would omit ratings of 1-50 but I think there is a justification for doing so. Think about all the HS football players in america, not all of them are good enough to be recruited and those are the ones that fall in the 1-50 catagory.ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387793343501851251noreply@blogger.com