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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Poll Results: Breakout Defender?

Blake Countess is the overwhelming choice for breakout defender of the year.

A couple weeks ago, I suggested that Desmond Morgan and Courtney Avery were both in the running for being breakout defenders.  Some readers disagreed with me, so I created a poll that received over 300 votes.  Which defensive player had the biggest breakout season in 2011?  Here are the results:

Blake Countess: 64%
Jake Ryan: 28%
Desmond Morgan: 4%
Thomas Gordon: 1%
Courtney Avery: 0% (2 votes)
Other: 0% (1 vote)

Freshman cornerback Blake Countess is your clear winner.  Countess started five games and played in eleven contests as a true freshman.  Midway through the season, he seemed to have usurped the starting cornerback job from fifth year senior Troy Woolfolk, who suffered from nagging injuries all year.  Countess finished the regular season with 36 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble, and 6 pass breakups (second on the team).  Furthermore, Countess showed the promise to be a potential all-conference corner for the next two or three seasons.

Redshirt freshman linebacker Jake Ryan received the next most votes.  Ryan is a 6'3", 230 lb. SAM 'backer who started ten games.  He made several timely big plays throughout the year, including forcing a fumble against San Diego State and causing an interception against Western Michigan that was returned 94 yards for a touchdown by Brandon Herron.  Ryan has 30 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery on the year.

True freshman WILL 'backer Desmond Morgan finished third, despite starting more games than Countess.  He led the team in tackles twice and finished the regular season with 53 tackles (fifth most on the team), 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.  The 6'1", 220-pounder likely suffered damage in the area of public perception when he was juked and outrun multiple times by Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller, but not many linebackers match up well with Miller in open space.

Redshirt sophomore free safety Thomas Gordon surprisingly finished fourth in the voting, despite having a largely forgettable 23-tackle performance in 2010.  Gordon started nine games at free safety and seemed to lose his job late in the season simply because the coaches didn't want to relegate Woolfolk to the bench.  Gordon finished the regular season with 59 tackles (third on the team), 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, 4 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles.  His interception was one of the highlights of the season when he expertly read a double pass against Eastern Michigan and made a one-handed pick.  Gordon also has a knack for being around the ball, which is apparent with his 4 fumble recoveries.

Sophomore cornerback Courtney Avery is down at the bottom, receiving only two of the votes.  Avery started only two games at cornerback, but he made several big plays.  One was an 83-yard fumble return for a touchdown against Minnesota.  He also made two impressive interceptions - the game-clinching one against Ohio State and another nice one against Purdue - to finish tied for first on the team in that category.  Avery's regular season stats include 24 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1/2 a sack, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries (1 for a touchdown), and 1 forced fumble.

There was one vote for "Other" but I'm not sure which player earned that vote.

In order, my ballot would be Desmond Morgan, Blake Countess, Thomas Gordon, Jake Ryan, and Courtney Avery.  Morgan earned the starting job over several contenders, including a senior (Herron), a junior (Brandin Hawthorne), and others.  There were some bumps along the way, but he acquitted himself well.  I already expected good things from Countess from when he was recruited, so his success wasn't really a "breakout" to me; I also expected good things from Morgan, but not quite so soon.  Gordon had more experience than either of those freshmen, but he watched from the sideline for most of 2010 and still turned into a big-play guy who filled up the stat sheet.  Ryan made some big plays, but also has some chinks in the armor.  He will be good soon, but 30 total tackles is a little underwhelming for a linebacker.  You could make a case that Avery deserves to be higher, and I might not argue; Michigan is in decent shape if he's the nickel corner.

14 comments:

  1. Depending on your definition of "breakout" you could consider Van Bergen.

    I don't think anyone would have dreamed he'd be dominant against Nebraska and the Bucks.

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  2. @ Roanman 7:35 a.m.

    I do think Van Bergen has improved, but his production has stayed pretty consistent for the last three years:

    2009: 40 tackles, 5 sacks
    2010: 36 tackles, 3 sacks
    2011: 41 tackles, 5 sacks

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  3. I agree with Roanman. It seems like we could include several returning upperclassmen on the breakout list if we wanted to stretch the point. Maybe we could get a second poll for most improved returning defender. I vote Heininger with Demens a close second. Demens jump from special teams, to Mike-3rd in tackles behind Mouton and Kovacs, to All Big Ten caliber Mike has been impressive, but not as impressive as Heiningers performance as a walkon scholar-athlete.

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  4. General question for whomever wants to tackle it:

    Do you think Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan are at their ideal playing weights? I have NO sense of "ideal weights" for LBs. I'm sure one of the biggest variables has to do with maintaining mobility (quickness, speed). But given their frame, their play, things of that sort, do they seem to be "at" their ideal size?

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  5. You mentioned that Ryan started ten games. Who started in his place the other two?

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  6. Maybe you give Van Bergen the breakout game award.

    Or better yet the Out Of Left Field award.

    For me he was among the most pleasant surprises of the year, right behind Toussaint.

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  7. @ Michael 9:49 a.m.

    I actually think Demens would get very few votes for most improved defender. I'm guessing most people found him to be pretty stagnant this year. He made 82 tackles last year in a part-time backup role and has made only 86 this year as a full-time starter.

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  8. @ Anonymous 10:03 a.m.

    IIRC, the other two games were started by a nickel corner - Courtney Avery.

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  9. @ Anonymous 9:50 a.m.

    I think both Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan need to get bigger. Ryan is a little light at 230 and probably wants to be 240-245 or so. Morgan is actually at a decent size to play WILL, but I think there's a good chance he'll end up at MIKE after Demens graduates; if that position change occurs, he'll need to get up around 240.

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  10. Should an OLB/edge rusher like Ryan be expected to put up similar tackling numbers to an ILB like Morgan?

    Both guys made a significant number of mistakes but were very impressive for first-year players overall. Both beat out incumbent starters, but I had the sense that Ryan made more big plays.

    Something like this can go either way. Regardless, it was good to see Ryan, Morgan, and Countess emerge and, in lesser roles, people like Avery, Campbell, and Black show that they'll be quality contributors.

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  11. @ Lankownia 11:45 a.m.

    Well, in Crable's senior season, he made 90 tackles, 28.5 tackles for loss, and 7.5 sacks. Now Crable had an excellent senior season, but it seems to me that 30 tackles/2 sacks is a long way from 90 tackles/7.5 sacks. Ryan probably should have made more than 30 tackles, but typically, those two inside backers (MIKE and WILL) are probably going to get run at a little bit more. Morgan's job is to flow to the ball, whereas sometimes Ryan's job is to set the edge and funnel things back inside to Demens/Morgan.

    I agree that Ryan made more big plays, but if you're basing the choice of breakout defensive player on big plays, then I think both Thomas Gordon and Courtney Avery need to be ahead of Jake Ryan, Blake Countess, and Desmond Morgan. After all, Gordon was a turnover machine while Avery made 2 picks and scored a touchdown. In fact, if we just go by big plays, I'd rank these guys like so...

    1. Thomas Gordon
    2. Courtney Avery
    3. Jake Ryan
    4. Desmond Morgan
    5. Blake Countess

    (I'm not trying to argue with you because I know you're just throwing out thoughts. I just figured I would kind of play Devil's advocate.)

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  12. I remember being somewhat incredulous when Gordon was benched in favor of Woolfolk, as Gordon had 4 (!!!) fumble recoveries, some in consecutive games, and was playing rather well in my eyes.

    I remember when Gordon was benched he was a bit upset and chalked it up to "politics." From that comment, it appears the motivation behind his benching was a result of something Hoke has emphasized repeatedly: this team belongs to the seniors. So when a RS So and a RS Senior are playing at the same position with relatively equal skill, the senior will get the nod. If that's the case, then I'm fine (and even pleased) with it. If Woolfolk clearly outplayed Gordon, then please correct me. Gordon will get the same favoritism when he puts in his 5 years at Michigan, so until then please kindly support your teammates and the TEAM.

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  13. @ GregGoBlue 2:17 p.m.

    The problem is that Gordon significantly outplayed Woolfolk, in my opinion. Woolfolk didn't have a hand in a single turnover, and Gordon had a hand in 7 of them. Gordon probably should have been playing over Woolfolk the whole season. Ultimately, I don't think it hurt the team when it comes to wins and losses, but it probably hurt the team in smaller ways (yardage, turnovers, etc.).

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  14. @Thunder

    That makes sense, I was just going off the top of my head. I'm not a huge believer in reading too much into defensive statistics because, it's far more of a team-oriented thing than offense. It's kind of like basketball. You can tell a little bit about blocked shots and defensive rebounds, but it's an extremely limited picture.

    I do think you can make some comparison between people at the same position though (e.g., sacks for DEs). Crable's numbers are crazy, so I guess we can set the bar pretty high for Ryan if he sticks to a similar role.

    I can't believe you didn't put your man Brandon Herron on that list of big-play-makers!

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