Kansas City (MO) Park Hill quarterback Kendrick Bell committed to Michigan back in October of 2022. Again, as I was in the throes of football season, I did not have time to put together a commitment post, especially of a player nobody really thought was a Michigan-level prospect at the time. Of course, that runs in his family, since his brother Ronnie Bell was a basketball player and not much of a football prospect until Michigan hopped in with an offer. Kendrick picked Michigan over UMass and Northern Iowa.
Bell is listed at 6'3" and 180 lbs. As a senior in 2022, Bell completed 224/339 passes (72%) for 3,570 yards and 37 touchdowns. He also ran for 670 yards and 10 touchdowns.
RANKINGS
ESPN: 3-star, 77 grade, #19 dual-threat QB
On3: 3-star, 88 grade, #25 ATH
Rivals: 3-star, 5.6 grade, #38 ATH
247 Sports: 3-star, 86 grade, #95 ATH
Hit the jump for more.
Kendrick Bell was mildly on my radar for the past year or two just because he was Ronnie's little brother, and those things tend to stay in the back of your mind. Sometimes that pays off where younger brothers pick the same school (Ben Bredeson begat Max Bredeson), and sometimes it doesn't (Ben Van Sumeren's little bro Alex ditched Michigan for MSU). In the Bells' case, both were under-the-radar football recruits, but Kendrick's position at quarterback indicated either having to play at a lower level or having to switch positions.
Bell has some good traits as a quarterback. He's tall and lanky, and he will certainly add some weight (although brother Ronnie never got very thick at Michigan). Perhaps his best playing trait is the fact that he can create when things break down, keep things alive, and make some accurate throws on the run. Despite questionable footwork, he has an impressive ability to throw with accuracy, touch, and decent velocity while moving to his left. His whip-like throwing motion allows him to make off-platform downfield throws, even when his feet aren't set.
My issues with Bell as a quarterback do not stem from his physical abilities so much as his mechanics and decision making. He rarely makes early, quick decisions with the football, and instead, his entire highlight film is full of him making throws off schedule. I remember watching Trevor Lawrence's high school film, and the most amazing thing about him was how he made such quick decisions off the snap and knew where the ball was going. And while that's not always possible - sometimes the defense calls the right coverage or just has better athletes - there should be at least some evidence of that capability. Then there's the question about Bell's footwork, which is all over the place. The nice thing is that he's an athlete, so he can move his feet, but he's never consistent with his drops, does not always get lined up to throw - which is tough when you're always running - and runs flat when rolling to his left rather than getting depth and cocking his shoulders.
Overall, Bell is a project as a quarterback. Along with the things mentioned above, somehow Park Hill went just 8-14 over the past two seasons with him at quarterback and scoring 30+ touchdowns each season. It doesn't seem to be very often where a quarterback from a bad high school team comes in and suddenly elevates his college team to the next level. I think Bell has the size and athleticism to make the move to receiver, and he could also be tantalizing to use on double passes, reverses (and reverse passes), wildcat packages, etc.
If Bell remains at quarterback, here's what the current depth chart looks like for the fall of 2023:
- J.J. McCarthy (Jr.)
- Davis Warren (RS So.)
- Jack Tuttle (6th)
- Alex Orji (So.)
- Jayden Denegal (RS Fr.)
- Kendrick Bell (Fr.)
I enjoyed reading this. I think the project label is fair. Highlights are highlights so they're not going to show you a representative sample or routine reads and throws. But you can see the way a guy moves. From my brief scan I saw good vision, playmaking instincts, and a few nice plays stepping into the pocket, but again, these are highlights. I think it's obvious though that the mechanics and footwork need development, possibly a lot of it. This is clearly not a kid attending expensive QB camps in HS like McNamara and McCaffrey did.
ReplyDeleteMy only take on his prospects as a QB is that our assessments (or rather the recruiting industries takes, as interpreted by the fanbase) have been exceptionally wrong throughout the Harbaugh era. Not saying rankings are useless - guys like Villari and Malzone have been deep bench players and McCarthy has been a rockstar - but in the Harbaugh era they have mostly been wrong. Guys outside the top 200 have end up being quality starters at power program (McNamara, Milton, Speight) while highly ranked "the next great thing" have been total duds (Morris, McCaffrey, Peters) that jump ship to lower levels after getting passed over.
None of that may have anything to do with Bell at all. But if he inherited any of the character that his big brother had I would bet on him outplaying his modest ranking.
As for sticking at QB, I would bet on it through the end of 2023 at least. Coaches aren't always very honest but I think Harbaugh is generally pretty transparent (if you can get past his Harbaugh-speak his public assessments are typically pretty instructive) and that is probably a little contagious with the staff. Holding back the truth is work for most people. They seem to like Bell as a QB for now at least.
Anyway with 2 guys going out potentially at the end of the year, possibly more, and perhaps only one HS recruit coming in, I think they'll give Bell a real shot to compete with the other developmental QBs (Denegal, Orji) and see what they might have. If he takes the Gentry/Villari route in the long run - no one will be all that shocked but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. Orji is another guy who people thought might move so maybe that happens in 2024 and Michigan keeps Bell for depth instead. Who knows.
I double checked to see if my memory was right. Peters was ranked 61 overall nationally, Morris 71, and McCaffrey 123. Everyone else (besides McCarthy) has been outside the top 200.
DeleteMcNamara was a placeholder for JJ. I appreciate his 2020 contributions, but his job was not to screw things up. To his credit, he did not
DeleteSpeight was not a quality starter, here or at UCLA
Milton sucked in Ann Arbor, and was benched before conference play began at Tennessee ... maybe year6 will be different?
I can agree on Milton ... completely. He is inaccurate, on a good day.
DeleteSpeight got his throwing shoulder hurt and was in pain throwing the football. I had two occasions to stand there and watch him warm up, and it was painful to watch. Does he play on Sunday otherwise? I doubt it, but prior to jacking his shoulder he was a solid young quarterback with a chance to be something more than a game manager here.
That's a completely unfair comment on McNamara. The kid can play. He did a helluva job for us. He legitimately held a stud athlete off for a year by being better. And might have done it again had he not let the competition get into his head ... opinion.
Then there's that thing where Harbaugh poisoned the minds of the offensive line in order to make him look bad.
I think he'll be a very solid QB at Iowa. Iowa and McNamara were made for each other. He'll have a nice offensive line to keep him mostly clean, and at least one quality TE to check down to. That he doesn't have the physical gifts that McCarthy has? Really, how many guys do?
Roanman
@JE
DeleteI think you're underselling McNamara a bit given he started games over 3 seasons. He got beat out by McCarthy yes, but you can't take away what he accomplished in 2021, regardless of his limitations - which are significant IMO. And he beat out Milton, who I'll get back to in a second. I'm not a fan and never really have been but he was pretty solid by mid 2021. Not bad for the player-to-be-named-later in the Jake Rudock trade.
My post is about expectations coming in. When McNamara committed in spring of 2018 he was 5th in line and expected to be a backup for a long time.
Michigan had a proven 5-star starter lined up for 2018 - the only concern was if he was going to go pro after his junior year or you could pencil him in for 2. Then they had a line of highly regarded backups behind him - Peters (JR), McCaffrey (SO), and finally a raw project expected to take many years - Milton. By Cade's freshman year, Peters was out of the picture, and the hype train was on to McCaffrey (even though he was a JR who hadn't done anything - Thunder described him as "too talented to sit on the bench for a third season"). And then Milton's arm cannon was also waiting in the wings (after the most impressive red-shirt season in history to-date LOL) - maybe someday he would be somebody. McNamara, despite enrolling early, was a sure thing to red-shirt, with 3 guys ahead of him including a guy with 3 years of eligibility that everyone (including me) thought was in line to be a starter the year after that.
We all know how things turned out -- a year later Patterson was gone after not meeting the very high expectations set for him, McCaffrey was beat out and gone without sniffing a start, and McNamara was the backup who was about to be the starter when Milton floundered.
The perception of the depth chart were completely overturned in one year and the guy people expected to have to sit and wait behind 3 more talented and more experienced players - someone to not really even think for a few years - was thrust into/pushed his way into a starting role a few games into his sophomore (RS FR) year.
Maybe there's a lesson there in not dismissing the guy nobody expected anything from for a many years. And taking recruiting ratings and perceptions about talent with a grain of salt.
Patterson - good college player but overhyped, undrafted
McCaffrey - a flat out bust who struggled badly even at a lower level, throwing more INTs than TDs
Milton - took even longer to develop than expected but a starter in the SEC
McNamara - first starting QB to beat OSU since Denard and about to be a starter at a big ten school for the 4th time
Very little expected from these guys 4 years ago turned out to be true.
If you told the Spring 2019 version of yourself the fate of each of those guys - you would not have believed any of it. It's been a wild ride.
@Roanman @JE
DeleteYou aren't going to change your minds on Milton but there are some facts to contend with.
He has started games at Michigan and Tennessee over 3 years and it looks likely to be 4 this fall. These are two of the best programs in CFB.
His career passer rating is 145, he average 8.6 YPA, and he has 17 TDs, 6 INTs, and has totaled 2,500 yards. These are unquestionably good passing stats.
He was a backup to a guy projected to go pretty high in the NFL draft and got beat out at Michigan 3 years ago, after getting hurt, by a guy who turned out to be a pretty decent college QB himself (or at least Iowa thinks so).
He was 2-0 as a starter last year including a win over Clemson. He completed 65% of his passes, 10TDs to 0INTs, and had a passer rating over 200(!) in 2022.
Milton is considered a Heisman contender heading into 2023 - 7th overall by DraftKings, ahead of McCarthy and Corum.
Oh and BTW, as fortold in his recruiting profile, he's mostly a pocket guy - having run for just 77 yards on the year on a handful of attempts.
Roanman & Lank, my take on McNamara may seem harsh. As Lank clarifies, he beat ohio & won a B1G title ... but my post was in response to the "quality P5 starter" Only the P5 starter is accurate, as a "quality" guy (IMO) is one HC & DC lose sleep over. Minter & Harbaugh will not stress if McNamara is on the opposite sideline at next year's B1G title game. None of us will. He's limited throwing, and practically a liability as a runner ... the offense around him must click, but he's not the "danger" man ... Ugh, this sounds bad too, but I promise I do appreciate the team's accomplishments under his tenure
DeleteOn Milton, he's a P5 QB, yes. Quality? No. Starter? He'll get a third try (in year6), but so far benched at two programs, once for a guy Lank has limited compliments of "solid"
@JE. I think you can quibble with the definition of quality. Set that bar wherever you like but if you're good enough to start at Michigan AND good enough to start at places like UCLA, TENN, IOWA as well, I would say you're a quality starter.
DeleteIf you look at a guy like Jake Rudock (who I would also call a quality starter) these guys produced at similar level statistically (PERs are 130, 134, 139, 145 and YPA are 8.6, 7.5, 7.3, and 7.3.) All of them lost their jobs and transferred. All of them had nice stat days against bad defenses. All of them had brutally bad days against good defenses. I still call them quality starters. YMMV. You can also think about injuries which made Rudock get almost twice as many attempts out as Speight in his career and cost McNamara most of his senior year.
Guys I would NOT call quality starters - Peters (6.6 YPA and 120 PER), Morris (6.8 YPA and 121 PER), McCaffrey (~6 YPA and ~110 PER).
Rudock and Speight both got NFL looks. I would not be surprised if McNamara and Milton did too. That league is hard up for anybody who MIGHT be good, and both McNamara and Milton - if they have good years - will have enough traits to draw camp invites at least IMO.
DeleteI think if the only QBs in 20 years who are "quality" at Michigan are Henne, Denard, and JJ that's excessively harsh. Gardner might have been another affecting sleep patterns.
DeleteNo DCs are losing sleep over McNamara, Rudock, or Speight -- there I agree. I'm not even sure they were losing sleep over Patterson. And it may have been premature to include JJ on that list too.
I might change my mind on Milton if he can put together a season. But I have yet to see him play well. I watched Tennessee some, three or five times over the last two years. He sits.
DeleteI am on record here as saying McNamara can't run, then later that he makes me think of Billy Kilmer running ... if you've ever seen that.
But strangely, he can get away. We have seen him move the chains with his feet. He's crafty in the pocket and has the ability to slip out, the fact that it looks like a slow motion replay, notwithstanding. Our defensive side will absolutely worry about him and will be telling people to maintain discipline and stay in their lanes.
On coaching QBs. You can absolutely coach em up, but no they either got it or not when it's putting it on the dime.
And again, Michael got better as a shooter, Lebron also ... maybe moreso, but both of those guys came in and could shoot it at least some.
Hell, I got better at shooting. I practically had to make it my life's work to do so, but I got better, but could I shoot it? Meh.
You say Jason Kidd who did improve more than a little at the line, but Shaq went from really bad to better but never good enough to make you not want to hack him.
John Beilein, famously and correctly told his coaches, "Don't bring me a kid that can't shoot" Because shooters like accurate QB's are born, not made.
The thing about making a blanket/universal statement is that the onus is on the side saying "this is always and for everyone" not on the side saying "nuh uh". Shaq didn't get better and neither did a lot of people - probably most - but there's many examples that did. So you know it can be done.
DeleteI'm a pretty big fan of Michigan basketball but I don't remember Beilein ever saying that, let alone it being famous. Are we talking about the guy who recruited Darius Morris (career 63% FT shooter) to play PG and Jordan Morgan (career 57% shooter) in his first recruiting class? Or the one who recruited Xavier Simpson and GR3?
Beilein is definitely an argument against you because you can bet your ass JB believed he could develop shooting ability. He "wrote the book" on it (actually a DVD but you get the point):
https://www.championshipproductions.com/cgi-bin/champ/p/Basketball/John-Beileins-Shooting-Drills-Player-Development_BD-05601C.html
He's a player development coach for the Pistons now -- his job is literally to do the thing you say can't be done.
Natural skill is definitely an important factor in throwing accuracy and shooting. Some people are not skilled enough and will never be "good" even if improve -- that's something I agree with. Bill Russell and Shaq were too far away to ever be great shooters. But it's a skill that can be improved with hard work and lots of people do it - particularly those not blessed with great coaching in their youth, or maybe those who get by on physical gifts that don't require them to sharpen their skills.
DeleteI brought up another good example above: Xavier Simpson.
Freshman year shot 26% from 3 and senior year shot 36% from 3. Now as a pro he is shooting 50% on the year. Those number are low volume and high variance but Simpson also went from a 59% free throw shooter in college to a 67% free throw shooter in the pros. He also famously developed a hook shot. These are things that you can improve in you work on them.
NBA rookie Jeremy Sochan is up to 70% free throw after switching to a 1-hand motion. He shot 59% in college last year.
Personally I think it's a lot easier to improve on a skill like this than a more general physical characteristic like speed or balance. You can run all damn day long and it's not going to make you sprint any faster necessarily (more likely you work on your starts and pacing), but if you shoot free throws all day long and refine your technique you can probably get substantially better.
Yes Lanky, by all means, "develop shooting ability" let shooting inability go play for the other guy.
DeleteOk, Shaq didn't get better, which is to my point. Do you think anybody coached him on it? Everybody coached him on it. He was borderline desperate.
A guy that can, can get better with coaching. A guy that really can can get better with coaching. A guy that can't, might get a little better, but he still can't, because it ain't in him.
Beilein definitely said it, maybe it's not famous and I just think it should be. It's either in his book, or in some puff piece I went through when it started working for him here. The exact quote is, "I told my guys, don't bring me a guy that can't shoot" It was directed to his assistant coaches at one of his stops during the middle part of his career the point being don't recruit the kid here if he can't shoot it in.
So here, I'll give you one. Yes, you can coach shooting/accuracy. You can coach it till you are blue in the face. It's your precious time on this earth, do what you want. That's on you. What I'm gonna do is find the kid that can and then coach him up.
You win one Lanky. You can coach it. Some ... most/nearly all, in the case of Kendrick Bell, people can't learn it. Use you time wisely, is the moral here.
RE: Shaq.
DeleteOne man not doing a thing doesn't prove that a thing can't be done.
I googled the quote and couldn't find it. Beilein definitely recruited a bunch of guys who can't shoot. I do believe he could have said something like that at some point -- but given he teaches shooting ability it was probably for effect. Bring me something I can work with not the hopeless Shaq.
ouch, they desperately need a legit QB prospect next class
ReplyDeleteEven if JJ stays for 2024 (I think so) and even if we get Jayden Davis (who knows), we'll need a transfer QB for 2025 ... Davis would need more time (and size), and the others are not playoff caliber QBs, or even Power 5 starter material
DeleteWe have 6 QBs now and if we swap Tuttle for Davis there is absolutely not a need to add a 7th. Even if someone like Orji or Bell switches position Michigan would still have 5 options including a couple seniors (McCarthy, Davis) in this scenario. LOL. I think we'd be alright.
DeleteHow many of those are "quality P5 starters?". For extra credit, who?
DeleteAll of them for all we know -- but certainly JJ.
Delete
ReplyDeleteOk, so in the interest of full disclosure. On the issue of knowing where to go with the ball at the line of scrimmage, I kind of only sort of know what I think I'm looking at ... sometimes. So Thunder has given me another thing to look for and try to figure out.
Having said that, let me say this, I like every single thing about this kid, particularly that he is coming here.
To begin with, 72% on 340 passes. As we all know, and despite Lanky's contrary opinion and protestations, you cannot teach accuracy. In particular, you can't teach whipping it (and that's just the perfect adjective for what this kid does) seemingly from the hip, 30 yards down field to a sort of covered receiver running away from him with just the perfect air under it that allows the receiver to run under the football, catch it in stride, and then leave. That kind of stuff is either born with it, or not. And it isn't that you can't teach it, it's that you can't learn it.
On the other hand, I do think that you can teach/learn where to go with the ball either from, or walking up to the line of scrimmage. That's film study. Trevor Lawrence was a camp warrior with a family and a program that got him coached up. We had a guy like that, Shane Morris, an all time camp warrior. He knew what he was looking at/for ... mostly ... his problem was delivering a catchable ball to the receiver. That is absolutely not a problem for Kendrick Bell.
In his film, notice how his receivers keep running downfield, or working across the middle, no matter how long it takes. They be doing that because they know … KNOW … that the ball is coming out and it will be catchable.
Footwork? I know nothing, and haven't even the first clue regarding what I'm looking at, except to say that even I can teach a kid to belly out from the line of scrimmage. I would just say, "Ok son, right here, you gotta belly out from the line of scrimmage some so you can get your shoulders more parallel to the line of scrimmage. Ok? Good! What I'm not sure about is if I would want to. I might be a little afraid to screw it up, coaching. Guys have done that.
I bet if you ask him who his favorite QB is, he's gonna say Patrick Mahomes, on account of just watch him play.
I think Orji is an excellent RB prospect in our system. I liked Denegal better than Thunder did, but ... probably, meh.
I think this kid could very well be the real deal.
That’s without even discussing his ability to run with the football, which he really can.
Roanman
It's not contrarian. That's a big reason why these guys go to QB camps and have QB coaches. It's like saying a pitcher can't improve their control, a basketball player can't improve their shooting. Demonstrably untrue. You can even do it with your feet (in soccer).
DeleteLook at all the civil arguing in this thread! It's a beautiful thing.
ReplyDeleteGlad to be a part of brightening your day.
DeleteRoanman
I like it too.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmT-zUuF0tM
ReplyDeleteHere's young Bill Kilmer who really could run, to the point that he came into the NFL as an RB/QB if you can imagine. Then he was in an automobile accident and got his legs jacked so much so that he was told he would never play.
He missed a season.
Real interesting career in that he mostly split time at QB with another guy, the other guy was mostly always really good. He played a long time, it is the fat, slow, very long in the tooth billy Kilmer that I reference when watching our former boy Cade. He'd somehow wiggle his fat self out of the pocket and lumber/limp for 8 and a first down and you'd just want to scream at the TV.
Finally, the clip above ends with arguably the most famous play in NFL history. That was Billy Kilmer's fumble that Jim Marshall returned for a safety.
Also, much of that clip is against the Lions. Night Train Lane, Yale Larry, Lions.
ReplyDeleteRoanman