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Friday, September 9, 2011

Preview: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

White shorts?  I hope this picture was taken before Labor Day.

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Michigan's receivers didn't have a chance to look particularly great against Western Michigan last week, with only one big play (Junior Hemingway's 37-yard reception) coming in the passing game.  There are some capable receivers, though, and Jeremy Gallon looks like he's become a more frequent target this season.  In last year's matchup, Denard Robinson was able to use the short passing game on the way to a 24-for-40 day with 244 yards and 1 touchdown.  The Fighting Irish played pretty well on defense this past Saturday in allowing only 128 yards passing and 4.3 yards per attempt.  I expect Robinson to throw a lot of short passes this Saturday, too, while taking a couple shots downfield.  The Irish have some solid defensive backs and Robinson's downfield accuracy is mediocre at best, so any passing yardage will be hard earned.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Michigan's top two running backs (Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith) combined for 12 carries and 29 yards last year, even though the Irish were keying on quarterback Robinson (28 carries, 258 yards, 2 touchdowns).  Brady Hoke and Al Borges plan to run Robinson less this season, which means he won't be getting 28 carries, and I still have my doubts about whether they can be as effective at creating running lanes for the fleet-footed quarterback.  If Michigan wants to run the ball, they seem to have two options: either run Robinson a lot and hope that he breaks one, or line up in the I-formation and pound the ball.  The latter takes away some of Robinson's strengths, and the former might get Robinson dinged.  If I'm the Notre Dame defensive coordinator, I stack the box and make Robinson beat me with his arm.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
Newly minted starting quarterback Tommy Rees played about one half of football on Saturday and threw for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He also threw 2 interceptions, but that's beside the point . . . which is that Rees could very well carve up Michigan's secondary.  Last year starter Dayne Crist was 13/25 for 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception when he left the game with an injury.  And while Michigan's secondary has improved since then (no more Cam Gordon at free safety, for example), cornerback Troy Woolfolk's sprained ankle suffered in the Western Michigan game might prove to be a problem.  Wide receiver Michael Floyd is a threat to win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver and had 12 receptions for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.  Michigan has the options of covering the 6'3", 224-pounder with a slightly hobbled Woolfolk, a diminutive Courtney Avery, or a physically inferior J.T. Floyd.  The Irish also have an effective tight end in Tyler Eifert and a pass receiving threat out of the backfield in Cierre Wood.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will likely have to call some creative blitzes to get to the quarterback, which will leave somebody on an island with Floyd . . . and that could get ugly.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
The Wolverines' rush defense didn't look particularly effective against WMU's offense.  While they didn't allow any huge plays, they also got gashed several times on misdirection.  If linebacker Cam Gordon returns this week from his back injury, that could help keep some of the young guys off the field, but I'm not holding out much hope for Michigan to stuff the run.  Notre Dame running backs combined for 22 carries and 109 yards in last season's matchup, and running back Cierre Wood is coming off of a 21-carry, 104-yard performance against South Florida.  I don't expect Wood to have a career day against Michigan, but it would not surprise me to see him replicate last week's game.  With Notre Dame's ability to pass the ball and throw to Michael Floyd on the outside, that might prevent Greg Mattison from allowing the safeties to poke their nose up into the box.
Advantage: Notre Dame


Predictions

  • Denard Robinson throws his first two interceptions of the year
  • Robinson throws for 225 yards but gets "bottled up" for less than 80 yards rushing
  • Michael Floyd goes for 120 yards and 1 touchdown
  • We see Michigan's first trick play of the season
  • Final score: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27

8 comments:

  1. I can't say I disagree with any of your analysis, but I think you miss a point of emphasis: tactics. Al Borges against the ND DC is a bad mismatch. I have a lot of confidence that ND's lack of speed on D will be exposed and that we will score plenty. Look for waggles, roll-outs, and oh-noes...I expect both teams to be in the 30s, but I like Mattison to engineer an extra stop or two for the win.

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  2. I appreciate the analysis.

    I don't see how you say that ND defense against UM offense is a ND advantage. Last year, we ran for nearly 300 yards. They had no answer for Denard. If we can get the Shaw/Toussant combination to be a viable threat, then that takes some pressure off Denard to run so much, and also opens up more throwing lanes if ND cheats too many up and into the box.

    I'm not impressed with the ND DC; he seems beffudled by nontraditional offenses (similar to Ron English).

    --TriFloyd

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  3. @ Anonymous 9:20 a.m.

    I'm not sure if you noticed this...but last year's offensive coordinator and head coach are gone. :o) But seriously, I don't think Robinson is going to run as much as he did last year, and I don't think the running game overall is going to be as explosive as it was last week or last year. I just have a feeling that we're going to struggle to move the ball.

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  4. We've got a really good offensive line. I think that our running game against ND is a big advantage and I'll be surprised if we don't get close to 200 yards rushing in this game.

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  5. I'm curiously wondering if after being burned over the top a few times the ND D will de-stack the boxx opening up holes for the running game. How interesting is it that Michigan basically has to play a "pass to set up the run" offense. You don't see that every day.

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  6. @Paul: Do you watch the NFL?

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