Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
This is the matchup that will decide the game's outcome. Michigan has one of the nation's best runners in the form of quarterback Denard Robinson. Running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint and Vincent Smith didn't do much against Northwestern's so-so rush defense last weekend, and I expect them to continue to struggle this week. The Spartans have the #3 rush defense in the country after allowing only 64 yards per game. Denard Robinson will likely rush for more than 64 yards all by himself, but this isn't going to be a game where Michigan can rely entirely on the run to control the clock and win the game.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
If First Half Denard Robinson shows up to play, this is a clear advantage for MSU. They're #2 in pass defense and pass efficiency defense, while Robinson has been an all-or-nothing quarterback (10 touchdowns, 9 interceptions overall). The Wolverines offer up the best receiving corps that the Spartans have faced all year long (the others being Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame, Central Michigan, and a depleted Ohio State), and there will be opportunities to hit passes. If I'm Michigan State's defensive coordinator - or anyone else's, really - my game plan is to sell out to stop Robinson's runs and take my chances on him missing downfield passes. Robinson hasn't proven to me that he can pick apart a defense, even in the Notre Dame game when he marched Michigan down the field at the end of the game; that drive was largely made by a busted coverage on Jeremy Gallon's wheel route. I expect Robinson to throw at least a couple interceptions.
Advantage: Michigan State
Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan State's patchwork offensive line has cause their running game to fall off quite dramatically, all the way to #79 nationally. Running back Edwin Baker, who averaged 5.8 yards a carry last year and scored 13 touchdowns, has been limited thus far to 4.1 YPC and one score. Le'veon Bell has still been pretty productive at 5.1 yards per carry and with six touchdowns, but this isn't the lethal unit that it was last year when those two combined for 1,806 yards and 21 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Michigan is #58 in the country in rush defense and has prevented opponents from tearing them to shreds with the run. While the Wolverines are likely to get gashed at times by decent running backs, the 4-3 Under has done a good job of creating some penetration and giving the front seven some chances to make plays in the backfield.
Advantage: Michigan State
Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
The Wolverines have been surprisingly solid against the pass in 2011, jumping from the 100's all the way to #32 in pass efficiency defense. Michigan defenders have only picked off five passes and are #79 in the country with 1.8 sacks a game, but they have created fairly consistent pressure with blitzes and solid pass rushing from defensive linemen Mike Martin and Craig Roh. Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins is #41 nationally in passing efficiency and has thrown for nearly 240 yards per game, with an average of 116 of those yards going to wide receiver B.J. Cunningham. The Wolverines are mediocre in the secondary and starting cornerback Troy Woolfolk has been banged up all season. Failing to rest Woolfolk might come back to bite Michigan, who need a solid game from the defensive backfield if they want to win.
Advantage: Michigan State
Player notes
- Of the players who appear on Michigan State's official depth chart, Michigan offered scholarships to starters RB Edwin Baker, DE William Gholston, LB Chris Norman; and backups RB Larry Caper, TE Dion Sims, SS Kurtis Drummonds
- Former Saline High School RB Nick Hill, who reminded many Michigan fans of Mike Hart but who was never offered, is MSU's starting kick returner and averages 26.9 yards per kick return
- Former Detroit Southeastern player William Gholston chose MSU in part because he was told he could play linebacker; he's starting at defensive end
Predictions
- Denard Robinson matches last week's interception total with 3
- Freshman cornerback Blake Countess gets exposed as a freshman for the first time
- Michigan notches 3 sacks
- Michigan State secures the game with a clock-killing drive
- Michigan State 28, Michigan 24
Magnus, your analysis is pretty much spot on, although how anyone can even quote MSU D statistics as if they have any basis in reality is puzzling to me. I think their D is decent, maybe top 40, but that's about it.
ReplyDeleteBut I think the key to this game is intangibles, which few people are putting much stock in.
This week of coverage couldn't have unfolded better in my opinion. MSU truly is being lauded as the clear favorite. This is another ingredient into the stew pot along with Brady's countdown clock, hatred of MSU, the seniors facing an 0-4 career, and clear coordinator superiority.
As with all MSU-UM games, watch MSU come out, inferiority complex raging, and play possessed. They'll get a couple 3 and outs early, score easily on a drive and the place will be going nuts.
Then, as with all intense games, that emotion will fade and scheme, discipline, trenches, coaching and athletes will emerge as the key factors. UM wins all of those battles, in particular the discipline and coaching battles. I expect UM to pull away in this one, a two score victory.
MSU's rush offense is advantage: MSU? MSU is tenth in the Big Ten running the ball with 129 yards a game and 3.4 ypc. They have an injury-riddled line that had experience and talent issues when they were healthy.
ReplyDelete"Then, as with all intense games, that emotion will fade and scheme, discipline, trenches, coaching and athletes will emerge as the key factors. UM wins all of those battles, in particular the discipline and coaching battles. I expect UM to pull away in this one, a two score victory."
ReplyDeleteThis.
Michigan isn't losing shit tomorrow. MSU will be blinded by their own sudden arrogance and won't see the eventual L coming.
Two thoughts....
ReplyDeleteFirst, WTF with the Spartina on a UM blog?!? ;-p
Second, if Denard throws 3 picks again this week, this is a blowout win for Sparty.
Wow, Denard in the 2010 MSU game looks way too much lot like Denard of 2011. Bad decisions, bad passes. He certainly does his fair share to win games for us, but he also does his fair share to lose them for us. I like the kid, but I am looking forward to the full installation of the West Coast Borges offense.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is salivating about the State D when. What has their D actually accomplished? The opposition they have faced thus far has been so so. They beat up on a 2-3 Youngstown State (which lost to a 2-4 South Dakota State), an 0-5 Florida Atlantic ('nuff said), a 2-4 Central Michigan, a severely down-and-out 3-3 OSU, and lost by almost three scores to ND, a team which we found a way to beat. I know I know, ND was more dominant stats wise, and we pulled a rabbit out of the hat, but we found a way to win, whereas MSU lost by almost three scores. As Meeechigan Dan alluded, we have better coaches. Hoke and company are great tacticians and motivators, make adjustments and get the job done. There is also the little issue of State's offense. I am not sure what happened between last season and this year, but it does not look like the same offense, and Cousins certainly does not look like the stud everyone expected him to be this season. Of the teams they played, OSU (although down overall) still has a pretty decent D (it's their offense that stinks) and against OSU State barely got out alive. They scored a total of 10. Because of the rivalry in this game, I expect them to come out pumped up and score a bit more, but I do not see them putting up big numbers. The only major concern is Denard's up-for-grabs down-the-field floaters. I think if Michigan switches to shorter passes, slants, Michigan will be fine. I expect Michigan to win this one. If Denard avoids throwing interceptions, I think Michigan will actually win pretty handily and MSU will be exposed.
ReplyDeleteI like your analysis. I am a M fan, but I don't understand all the other blogs and fans discounting MSU's Defense. They held ND to 275 yards. However, M has played a tougher schedule and has come through unscathed so far. If Denard can come though with only 1 interception I think M can win it in a low scoring affair 21-20.
ReplyDeleteMagnus, given your analysis, I'm surprised that the advantages aren't reversed for running on both sides. Figured that Run game vs. Run D would go to the D for both teams when considering how good MSU's D-line is and the weakness of their O-line.
ReplyDeleteI think this is a tough one to predict, but agree Michigan's probably going to come up a little short because of home-field and a big play here or there. Opportunities for Michigan to get over the hump:
ReplyDelete-Denard is consistently accurate as a passer and limits the turnovers to 1.
-The DL dominates the OL, letting the LBs blitz, cover, and contain the MSU run game.
-The OL wins the matchup with the DL. This one is the least likely by Michigan's line does have talent. If they can dominate the run game they'll put MSU in a tough spot.
Go Blue!
I agree with MI Dan.
ReplyDeleteI think our seniors are going to want this too badly. Molk will keep Worthy in check, possibly with a little help from Omameh or Barnum/Schofield. Their D line is great, no lie, but their linebacking corps isn't the best. They lost their two most productive linebackers last year.
Their O Line is still very suspect. They haven't put up more than 13 points on a defense other than Florida Atlantic, Youngstown St., or Central Michigan. When they played teams with better defenses, ND and OSU, they struggled a bit.
Cousins is a great quarterback, but if his OL can't hold up long enough for him to throw, he's going to be in for a long day. Campbell comes out strong today, and overpowers the interior.
I either think MSU is going to win by very few, or we are going to rage and win. It all depends on Denard's INTS. -3 turnovers, we lose 24-21. We come out even in turnovers, we win 45-20. Too much momentum.
Everyone is tooting MSU's horn. I hope their over-confidence gets the better of them. I agree with Anon "October 14, 2011 2:13 PM"; if Denard can avoid ints and Michigan gets the momentum, it will be a blowout.
ReplyDeleteI obviously hope you people are right (the ones who think U-M will beat MSU), but I just can't trust Denard Robinson not to turn the ball over. He can do that against bad teams or mediocre teams and get away with it, but it almost bit Michigan in the butt against Notre Dame (if not for a last second touchdown) and I'm afraid it will happen today, too.
ReplyDeleteI agree that if Michigan wins the turnover battle, Michigan will win...but I'm not sure that will happen. Not after what we saw happen during the Big Ten season last year. Denard has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions so far, and he hasn't really played anyone who's very good.
@ Paul 11:46 a.m.
ReplyDeleteAnytime you have Denard Robinson, the advantage would seem to be Michigan's. It's true that MSU has a solid defensive line on the interior and a couple decent linebackers, but Robinson is Robinson. And MSU's offensive line might be banged up, but their runnings are still performing decently. The two decent running backs Michigan has faced this season (SDSU's Hillman and ND's Cierre Wood) have both had solid games with 109 yards and 130+ yards, respectively, and averaged over 5 yards a carry. If MSU's running backs can do that, too, I think the advantage is MSU's.