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| Justice Hayes takes a handoff from Jack Kennedy in the 2012 spring game |
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 176 lbs.
High school: Grand Blanc (MI) Grand Blanc
Position: Running back
Class: Redshirt freshman
Jersey number: #5
Last year: I ranked Hayes #86 and said he would redshirt. He redshirted.
At only 176 lbs. last season and with several experienced backs on the roster, Hayes was a virtual lock to redshirt. He earned some praise in the off-season and the spring for his ability to run outside the tackles, but so far, his ability to run inside has not developed.
Rumors and speculation have popped up that Hayes will battle with sophomore Thomas Rawls to be Fitzgerald Toussaint's primary backup, but I don't see Hayes as an every-down back. He will likely be heavier this year, but not physical enough. Instead, I expect Hayes to be groomed as Vincent Smith's heir to the third down back role. Hayes can be effective on draws, counters, screens, and dump-offs, plays that can get him in open space and use his shiftiness. He could also be useful on kickoff returns.
Prediction: Backup running back; occasional kick returner
It seems like a lot of people are forgetting about Hayes, although I personally have high hopes for him.
ReplyDeleteWith some of your expressed conerns regarding a lack of speed and explosiveness at the skill positions, do you see Hayes possibly bringing that element in the coming years, or do you think he'll be stricly limited to that 3rd down role even as an upperclassman? I'm also curious as to whether the coaches have him in their plans, given that he has initially a RR recruit.
I definitely think the coaches envision Hayes having a role in the coming years. I don't think he'll be an every down type of back, but I could see him having a Clarence Williams type of role (splitting carries fairly evenly) if a guy like Thomas Rawls or DeVeon Smith doesn't turn into a stud. I think Hayes brings a fraction of big play ability, but I don't think he's really "the answer" when it comes to breaking games wide open. As the roster stands now, I think we're going to see the ball distributed pretty evenly among the skill positions to keep opponents off balance. There's no "go to" receiver on the roster unless Chesson or Darboh develops into one, and the aforementioned Rawls/Smith combo hopefully turns into something productive.
DeleteInteresting that you believe we won't see a "go to" guy at receiver, given that Borges has expressed a desire for a "go to" guy at TB.
DeleteWhat do you think of Hayes as a player? His high school film seemed to show only average to above average speed, although the spring practice reports seemed to state that he was one of the fastest guys on the roster.
I'm not saying we won't ever see one. I'm saying we don't have one right now.
DeleteI'm not too enamored with Hayes. He's a role player, in my opinion, not a future star. The Clarence Williams comparison I made above is fairly apt, I think. I would have liked Hayes more if Rodriguez had stayed or if Borges/Hoke planned to run the spread forever, but he's not a feature back in an I-formation offense.
I could see the 'Clarence Williams type of role' becoming reality, where the small back (Hayes or even Norfleet) gets some carries, but is used situationally. I could also see the smaller guy take the lead, with the big back (especially if it's Shallman) used more like the goal-line/short-yardage specialists that many NFL teams like to employ.
DeleteWe don't run the I-formation offense and probably won't for a couple more years because of the QB situation. Gardner's a spread QB and Bellomy might be too (at least based on his high school experience.) You never know of course, but the QB situation makes me think it's at least 2 more years (after Denard this year, obvs) that we switch to I-form and a lot could change by then as well. That would be Hayes' 5th year, so I don't think how he fits in at I-form should affect him too much.
DeleteMaybe the offense will be more about what the OL can/can't do than the QBs though...
Hayes vs. Norfleet? Who has the advantage after this fall?
ReplyDeleteWhat kind of advantage? Hayes has a better shot to be an every down back or the change-of-pace back. Norfleet has a better chance to be a star kickoff/punt returner.
DeleteBut they're both short therefore the same! /s
DeleteGuess the funny thing is I have actually watched both play in high school several times.... I can tell you first hand that Norfleet is a MUCH more powerful runner. Hayes is a bit taller but I can not see him being stronger. Norfleet is faster.
DeleteI agree that Norfleet is a more powerful runner. I've never been impressed by Hayes's ability to run through contact.
DeleteAny chance he can play the slot WR? Borges continually harps on wanting one RB to get the bulk of the work, and how he does not like RB rotations. I wonder whether the "3rd down RB" role has been created for Smith because he runs (especially inside), catches, and blocks pretty well. If Smith's heir is not that multi-faceted, the coaches may just decide to leave the #1 guy in the game on 3rd and long. I do hope Borges can carve out a niche for Hayes because the offense could use an infusion of quickness in some spots.
ReplyDeleteI don't think slot receiver is a legitimate option for Hayes. The coaches like bigger guys in the slot, anyway. Rich Rodriguez's personnel theories left in January 2011. I don't think the "third down running back" role is set in stone. It's not like a guy comes in on every third down situation. Rawls is not known for his pass receiving abilities, and neither is DeVeon Smith. And neither seems like a guy that would be adept at running screens. You can leave a guy like Rawls in on third-and-short because he could be a threat to run the ball, but on 3rd-and-13, even Borges would probably prefer someone like Hayes (if he can pass block, which I honestly don't know).
DeleteI don't know a ton about Hayes; how are his hands? At 5'10", he could be an heir apparent not only to V. Smith, but also to D. Dileo, no? After D. Robinson exits stage left, we're still a team with a triple threat QB in D. Gardner. I still think our players' strengths in 2013 will play best to spreading the field a bit. Obviously not as much, but I can definitely envision a backfield with a healthy dose of motion packages for guys like Hayes to make an impact catching screens and wheel routes out of the shotgun or pistol.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I understand, the coaches have every intention of keeping Hayes at RB. I'm not sure what you mean by being the heir to Drew Dileo (as a holder?), but the need at running back is significant in 2013 if Fitzgerald Toussaint leaves early, which I think is somewhat possible. If Hayes were to play WR, we would have a bunch of bruisers and Dennis Norfleet at running back, and the coaches told Norfleet that he would be almost exclusively a returner. That would leave Rawls, DeVeon Smith, Wyatt Shallman, and a couple fullbacks...and that's a pretty slow backfield, with Rawls being the lone exception with decent speed.
DeleteWhat did you think of Toussaint coming out of high school? I'm just curious as to what kind of running back you think will be most effective for Michigan. Also, where do you think Fitz ranks in terms of pure running ability relative to the great michigan RB's of the last 25 years or so?
DeleteI really liked Toussaint. As you can see in the following link, I named him the class of 2009's best offensive recruit:
Deletehttp://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2009/02/2009-recruiting-awards.html
Not all of those predictions are spot-on, but that gives you an idea of what I thought of Toussaint a few years ago.
I don't know where Toussaint ranks. That's a good question. If we're just talking about pure running ability, I'd probably put him behind Tyrone Wheatley and right there with Anthony Thomas. He's a better runner than Mike Hart and Chris Perry, but Toussaint leaves a little to be desired in pass protection and hasn't really caught the ball much.
IMO, the spring game revealed that Toussaint has made some serious strides in pass protection. Remember how Desmond Morgan got hurt? Toussaint totally upended him with a perfect cut block.
DeleteI thought Troussaint looked good in the spring too. He has good vision and pretty good quickness (and power for his size). If he can demonstrate some receiving ability this fall, I could see him being attractive to the NFL. They probably would like to see him in the 205-210 lbs range. It's unfortunate that it took a couple years to establish a good RB to complement Denard. Better late than never.
Delete