The team might be better at football than last year's, but due to the schedule, their record might slip a bit. If we get to double digit wins, I'll be more ecstatic that I was last year.
He's right about the defense. We have a lot of good to very good players there, but no great players at this point. Without elite, next-level talent, and with some real questions marks at DT, we do have a ceiling this year that will make it difficult to compete at a NC level. That, along with our concerns on the Oline, will probably keep us out of the top 10, but we could certainly end up in the top 20. Nine wins would be a very good result, and achievable as long as injuries in key areas don't become a problem.
BlastBeat88's comment strikes me as a shade too optimistic. Denard Robinson and the returning defensive players will probably be better than last year. But the replacements at WR, tight end, and along both lines are worse than the talent that graduated. The running backs and the returning OL and DL starters are probably a push (no better, but no worse than last year). Add it all up, and it will be pretty hard for this team to be better at football than last year's.
Now, on top of that, Michigan got 11 wins last year out of 9 or 10-win talent. The Notre Dame win was miraculous, and the Sugar Bowl could have gone either way. Michigan also had a huge plus on recovered fumbles, a stat that most football analysts consider to be basically random. (You can coach offensive players to be better at holding onto the ball, and you can coach defensive players to force fumbles. But once the ball is on the ground, it's just luck who recovers it.)
So if Michigan replayed last year's schedule with equivalent talent, the odds of getting 11 wins again would be low. Since they are playing a much tougher schedule, I agree with Anonymous that nine wins would be a very good result. Anonymous is right that that's achievable; but it's not a slam-dunk either. Michigan has a greater chance of going 8-4 than of going 10-2.
I don't think the recovering of fumbles are all based on luck. Mattison preaches a swarming defense that has everyone pursuing the ball until the play is over. You never know when it will pop out and you better have the numbers there when it does. There's a little luck involed but if you have more players in position to make the play you're more likely to recover it. I'd say it was another sign of better coaching which led to better results.
The team might be better at football than last year's, but due to the schedule, their record might slip a bit. If we get to double digit wins, I'll be more ecstatic that I was last year.
ReplyDeleteHe's right about the defense. We have a lot of good to very good players there, but no great players at this point. Without elite, next-level talent, and with some real questions marks at DT, we do have a ceiling this year that will make it difficult to compete at a NC level. That, along with our concerns on the Oline, will probably keep us out of the top 10, but we could certainly end up in the top 20. Nine wins would be a very good result, and achievable as long as injuries in key areas don't become a problem.
ReplyDeleteBlastBeat88's comment strikes me as a shade too optimistic. Denard Robinson and the returning defensive players will probably be better than last year. But the replacements at WR, tight end, and along both lines are worse than the talent that graduated. The running backs and the returning OL and DL starters are probably a push (no better, but no worse than last year). Add it all up, and it will be pretty hard for this team to be better at football than last year's.
ReplyDeleteNow, on top of that, Michigan got 11 wins last year out of 9 or 10-win talent. The Notre Dame win was miraculous, and the Sugar Bowl could have gone either way. Michigan also had a huge plus on recovered fumbles, a stat that most football analysts consider to be basically random. (You can coach offensive players to be better at holding onto the ball, and you can coach defensive players to force fumbles. But once the ball is on the ground, it's just luck who recovers it.)
So if Michigan replayed last year's schedule with equivalent talent, the odds of getting 11 wins again would be low. Since they are playing a much tougher schedule, I agree with Anonymous that nine wins would be a very good result. Anonymous is right that that's achievable; but it's not a slam-dunk either. Michigan has a greater chance of going 8-4 than of going 10-2.
I don't think the recovering of fumbles are all based on luck. Mattison preaches a swarming defense that has everyone pursuing the ball until the play is over. You never know when it will pop out and you better have the numbers there when it does. There's a little luck involed but if you have more players in position to make the play you're more likely to recover it. I'd say it was another sign of better coaching which led to better results.
ReplyDelete