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| Alabama's Dee Milliner returns an interception after a |
Alabama is good. They're not the national champs for nothing. Nobody in his right right mind thought Michigan would win this game (although 63% of this site's voters picked Alabama to lose), but I did expect a little better showing than that. The Wolverines aren't as bad as that game made them look, but it certainly wasn't the kind of showing Michigan wanted to put forth in the nationally televised opener.
Al Borges deserves some blame, but not much. Michigan wasn't going to be able to run the ball in this game. I predicted that Michigan would rush for fewer than 100 yards; the final tally was 69, despite having one of the most electrifying players in the country at quarterback. Yes, Denard Robinson probably could have run the ball more, especially before he got dinged up. Would it have made much of a difference? Probably not. Where Robinson really could have made a difference was in the passing game. He had lots of open receivers early in the game, but he's just as erratic as ever in the passing game. He kept throwing deep (inaccurately), and completed just 11/26 passes. The offensive line did a decent job of pass blocking, but if Michigan has to rely on Robinson to win the game with his arm, they're going to struggle.
I hope Fitzgerald Toussaint and Frank Clark enjoyed watching that on TV. Toussaint erased any chance Michigan had of putting together a decent running game by drunk driving. Vincent Smith is what he has been for several years, and that means he shouldn't be a featured running back; he ended the game with 13 carries for 33 yards, and 22 of those yards came on one play late in the game. Thomas Rawls rushed 6 times for 9 yards and looked very slow in the process. Meanwhile, Clark probably would have struggled just like the rest of the defensive line, but he would have given Michigan another guy to rotate in there and get a bit of a pass rush. SAM linebacker Jake Ryan had to play a little too much defensive line, and he got manhandled in the process.
Injuries were terrifying. Blake Countess left the game after one series on defense because he got hurt on punt coverage. Taylor Lewan left the game late with a knee injury. And Denard Robinson inexplicably tried to tackle Dee Milliner with his throwing shoulder, which caused him to leave the game looking like he would miss a chunk of time. Including Toussaint, that meant that Michigan was missing its #1, #3, #4, and #9 most important players at various points, according to my preseason countdown. Michigan should be able to weather the storm if these are short-term injuries, but maybe not if any of them last long.
Eddie Lacy who? Everyone was talking about Alabama running back Eddie Lacy before the game, but he didn't impress me at all. He's big, and that's about it. The most physically impressive running backs on the roster were true freshman T.J. Yeldon (11 carries, 111 yards, 1 touchdown) and junior Jalston Fowler (8 carries, 67 yards). I don't think Lacy will be holding onto that starting job for long. Of course, all three made Michigan's defense look silly when combined with the Crimson Tide offensive line. All of Michigan's defensive backs struggled to tackle, even stout safeties Thomas Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, who are normally sure tacklers.
Special teams yay. Matt Wile boomed every kickoff deep into the endzone, allowing zero returns. Will Hagerup averaged 51.3 yards per punt, including a 62-yarder. Dennis Norfleet returned 8 kickoffs for 177 yards (22.1 yards per return) and looked like a potential star as a returner.
Burned redshirts. I'm not in a tizzy about any of these guys playing, but so far LB Joe Bolden, WR Amara Darboh, TE Devin Funchess, FB Sione Houma, LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, RB Dennis Norfleet, DE Mario Ojemudia, DT Ondre Pipkins, CB Terry Richardson, LB James Ross, TE A.J. Williams, and FS Jarrod Wilson have burned their redshirts. That's 12 members of the 25-man class of 2012. At least a couple more will probably play before the end of the year.
Referees were bad, but it doesn't matter. Michigan didn't lose the game because of the refs, but there were some obvious holds, hands to the face, personal foul-quality hits, etc. that weren't called against Alabama. I'm not sure how Dee Milliner didn't get called for illegal contact/pass interference when he shoved Roy Roundtree out of bounds and then picked off Robinson. Meanwhile, Taylor Lewan alone cost Michigan 30 yards in penalties with a personal foul, a holding call, and a false start. He might as well be a redshirt freshman again.
Michigan is going to be fine. As long as none of those injuries last long, the expectations remain the same. Alabama didn't expose anything that we didn't already know to be true. The defensive line is going to be a question mark against good offensive lines; Denard Robinson isn't a consistent passer; the offensive line lacks depth. If you're surprised, you haven't been paying attention.
I thought Denard threw some catchable balls early that just didn't connect for whatever reason. The first deep ball to Gardner was all on Gardner; he turned the wrong shoulder and forced himself to stab at it with one hand.
ReplyDeleteHe missed some pretty bad. A few were on the receivers though, especially early. A few were on the money and were caught. Basically - same Denard we saw last year at passing- Inconsistent accuracy. My expectations for improvement in his passing skills have been downgraded.
DeleteOn the positive side - his decision-making generally looked better. Other than the INT near the goalline (not the one where Roundtree got knocked down) I didn't notice any real bone-headed pass attempts.
And of course we have to keep in mind the level of difficulty was at an all-time high against Bama.
Denard is going to put up nice passing statistics this year.
I would be very interested to hear David Brandon's honest opinion regarding the impact of that performance on Michigan's brand. Hopefully it's not as bad as it seems the morning (mourning?) after the game and the pregame publicity to some degree negates getting our skulls beat in. But probably not.
ReplyDeleteWhat impact? Does that game really mean that much? Look at Alabama's results last year. Teams like Arkansas got smoked too.
DeleteWillywill9
I think Chesson played as well.
ReplyDeleteHe's not on the participation list.
DeleteWelcome to the effect of great recruiting by Bama for 5 years. 90% were 4 & 5 stars. UM, meanwhile, played 50% with 3 stars. Bigger & faster players beating up less talented players. Congrats to Bama for building their empire with steady, outstanding commitment to 1 strategy. The question for UM is whether Hoke's approach will yield similar talent & depth in the next couple of years.
ReplyDeleteI think Michigan can approach a fractional Alabama status, but I do not believe it can consistently equal or better Alabama. It's just not going to be possible to draw elite talent from the south away from the south to attend a school up north. Some will come to Michigan, but not many. And there is simply not enough elite talent from the north to compete with what exists down south. Just a fact.
DeleteSpot on Magnus. I don't think I could have said it any better. Here is to hoping our next QB can actually throw. I love Denard to death and I am happy he is a Wolverine. In the grand scheme of things he is an incredible athlete playing the wrong position in our offense.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the injuries, fortunately, UM is playing Air Force and UMass the next two weeks, so they should probably be able to survive without Countess and/or Lewan during that stretch. Probably...
ReplyDeleteI didn't watch the game (remember, I was one of the few predicting that UM would get blown-out) so I did not see which freshman played. Where did RJS and TRich play? Special teams, I assume. I would have thought, given their weights, that they were guaranteed to RS.
Jenkins-Stone was on the opening kickoff team. Richardson played on special teams later in the game.
DeleteUh...Anonymous posts don't get 'remembered'. Give yourself a name and you can boast about your predictions then.
DeleteYeah, I don't know how to give myself a name in the title area of my post. How do I do that?
DeleteOf course, I forgot to put my name in the body of my original post (derp), which I will now do: I post as Logan88 on MGoBlog and I predicted UM would lose 31-13, so even my prediction was overly optimistic.
Start with the "Reply as:" drop-down box that's directly above the "Publish" button. A decent prediction if true.
DeleteI really hope Dave Brandon enjoyed his little project here. It brought in less money to the Univ than a ypical ome game and effed the City of Ann Arbor by shorting us a home game. Thanks Dave, ow get back to work building the brand that looked a little rusty last night.
ReplyDeletePretty much agree with everything written, and about 95% of the comments, too. Game was a bad idea, a waste of time, and a possible injury nightmare. I only want to play teams like that when it's the last game of the year, and a trophy is on the line.
ReplyDeleteThis post is spot on. From the bowl game and now this Alabama game, it is clear this team does not have top talent. UM will be good enough to compete for B1G, but they will need a fair amount of breaks to go their way (like last year) to sniff 11-2. Even after Hoke fills the roster with his higher level recruits, I don't see UM as ever getting to Alabama's talent level, which is about as good as I have ever seen in CFB. Post-Denard, UM will need to develop a sharp passing game to loosen up an elite defense like Alabama's.
ReplyDeleteRegarding redshirts, I am of the opinion that Hoke needs to get the majority of the freshmen experience asap to help speed up their development. Maybe the coaches feel this way to because a lot of back-ups and freshmen played last night. I often forget that even though Hoke has been on campus 18 months, his first real recruits just arrived. Next season, I expect to see more open competition for starting spots and a lot of the prime candidates will be 2012 guys. He needs to do whatever he can to speed up the development of the youth right now.
My other impression is that UM needs to recruit another WDE in 2013. I think the hope for that position is Ojemudia and Clark. Beyer is not going to get it done (he looked tiny out there) and Ryan needs to focus on SAM. Also think there is a good chance that Taco Charlton outgrows the position. I'm hoping the coaches get back in on an over-sized OLB recruit for this spot.
I agree that a large number of freshman should possibly play, but there is a cost to it - it means that the senior talent is not going to be as strong as it could be in 2016. I know everyone just assumes Hoke is going to bring in top 5 classes from now on, but part of high level talent is experience. We saw guys like Van Bergen, Heininger, and even Huyge make a big improvement between their 4th and 5th years.
DeleteI guess I'm saying I don't think we have to go overboard. I've said all along that Jenkins-Stone was going to play, but that's the kind of decision that can be frustrating down the line.
Beyer should be OK - Bama is not the kind of team he is going to do well against. He's another example of a guy who really would have benefited from a RS year if Michigan had any sort of veteran talent at the LB position last year.
I think Al Borges called a horrible game. You have the most exciting player in college football, and he did not use him effectively. Denard is great as long as he is running the read option or rolling him out. He is not a pocket passer.
ReplyDeleteAlso, what happened to some smash mouth football. Give Rawls a few more chances to show what he can do. I know he had a few attempts, but they were never committed to the run and as the score got worse, our offense became to predictable.
It looked like Alabama DL was coached to play contain on Denard and forced him to hand off on the zone-read. This gave him a decent pocket to throw from, but could not capitalize. He usually throws better from the pocket than on roll-outs anyway. One thing Borges could have done was mix in QB isos and sweeps a la RR. But you can only run something like that against Alabama a few times. Once it was established that Denard's passing was not sharp, the UM knew they had no chance.
DeleteRawls couldn't do anything. He's too slow and Alabama was too physical for his size to do any good.
DeleteDave Brandon was offered the chance to play the national champion before a national tv audience at night in the Taj Mahal of football. I call that an opportunity only a crazy person would refuse.
ReplyDeleteIt's no Taj Mahal, but as a fan of good competitive college football matchups, I don't think it was a bad idea. I'd much rather play elite teams than MACrifice games. We'll lose some, but we'll win some too.
DeleteI thought it was actually Bill Martin who scheduled this. Regardless, I agree. Our program has historically taken on the best and we shouldn't shrink from that. That goes all the way back to the 1890s when we regularly took on Cornell and Yale back when they were the powerhouses.
DeleteI agree with the general thrust of 'we'll be fine'. This game doesn't move the needle much. It would have been nice to not get blown-out, and I thought we'd play a little better, but this is no shock - we were 14 point underdogs. As I've said before, this is a season where the non-conference results don't matter a great deal, unless you expected to contend for a national title - which I did not. Michigan's not on Alabama's level right now, but hopefully this was a productive loss in terms of development for the rest of the year.
ReplyDeletePositive takeaways:
Lot of freshman got to get their feet wet.
Gallon looks good, even against a team with that talent. Screen passes worked.
Norfleet has skill - how long till he gets carries at RB, I wonder.
The toughest opponent is behind us.
Negative takeaways:
Gardner is not an instinctual receiver. Not sure how quick you can learn those things.
Roundtree-Denard passing worked about about as well as last year - not.
Countess injury (on special teams! no less)
Borges
OK, I agree it wasn't going to win us the game if Denard ran 30 times, but he was hardly used as a rusher at all in the first half. IIRC, his first carry came after we were down 31-0. That makes no sense. Limiting his exposure is fine, but not using the best rushing QB in the country for so long is nuts...and we know Smith's not a threat running the way he was used. I'm down with coming out passing against Alabama, even if it doesn't work - it was our only chance, but the run play class have to be better than what we saw yesterday.
The people whining about bama cheating and brandon's decision are sore losers. The time to complain about that was before Michigan got hammered. Afterwards sounds pitiful.
Great, now we get four more years of Lakwonda's obsession with the tiny scatback who's never going to live up to the love affair. I like Norfleet in his current job, but come on.
DeleteGardner looked much better as the game went on. Turning the wrong shoulder was painful, but he can get open just from raw athleticism. He'll get plenty of catches.
Roundtree will likely not be going against crazy-ass defensive backs 20 pounds heavier than him for the rest of the year.
Some of us have been 'whining' about Alabama cheating for quite some time.
Small backs get results, even in the NFL. I'm not going to argue that size is irrelevant for OL, TE, even WR - but at RB? Norfleet may well be the 2nd best ball-carrier on the roster. I haven't seen anything impressive from Rawls, no matter what Fred Jackson or the 'insiders' he feeds info to say.
DeleteBest article is probably Cecil Hurt's free piece on Tidesports.com with the insight of "Different Realities". Fair & measured piece that addresses emotions and bitter reality. Must read.
ReplyDeleteYour article isn't bad, Cecil, but the insight there is very obvious - Michigan isn't yet at 'Bama's level.
DeleteMy only issues with the play calling were the number of runs up the middle (too many), the lack of rolling the pocket, and the lack of runs for Denard. I am really disappointed that they didn't add any no huddle into their game plan. For future game plan, it would be nice to see game plans that use the run (40% Fitz, 30% DRob, 30% other RBs) to set up play action with a few short passes thrown in there to mix things up. Bottom line, DRob should not be throwing more than he is running.
ReplyDeleteThe only purpose for putting Vincent (Devin) Smith into the game is for screens or as a reciever for plays that have a RB running a route. Denard has to complete at least 70% of his passes, especially when he isn't under that much pressure. There were some throws were it looked like he wouldn't hit the broad side of a barn. If they get through 4 or 5 games and DRob has a pass completion rate under 50%, it might be time to use Bellomy for 10 to 15 snaps a game to see what he offers, not only as a short term part time change of pace solution, but an answer for a full timer next season.
I think the Frosh should get limited playing time at every position outside of QB and OL. Get them used to the college game through gradual playing time. Only way they'll get better is if they play, and it looks good to recruits that they'll probably get some playing time as Frosh.
I'd have to go back and look at the film, but it's tougher to roll the pocket against a 3-4 defense than a 4-3. I did see some even fronts, but I'm not sure how often it happened... For whatever reason, Denard is more likely to scramble when he drops straight back, so perhaps Borges was trying to take advantage of that habit. Also, Alabama was getting a lot of penetration, which makes it tough to run laterally. Against a blitzing 3-4 defense like that, your best bet is to a) pass the ball or b) try to hit them up the middle and run past a blitzer.
DeleteMilliner's "shove" was legal. As long as the ball hasn't crossed the neutral zone he can do anything he likes to the receiver except hold and push from behind.
ReplyDelete