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Thursday, March 21, 2013

How to Cope with the Disaster of Jake Ryan's ACL Tear

Another year, another debilitating injury to a key player.  Last year it was Blake Countess and, to a lesser extent, Denard Robinson.  In 2010 it was Troy Woolfolk and J.T. Floyd.  This year it's redshirt junior Jake Ryan, who had 88 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks, along with 4 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, and 3 pass breakups from the outside linebacker position last year.  He tore his ACL at practice on Tuesday morning, and with the season less than six months away, chances are slim to none that he will be fully recovered for the beginning of the year, and perhaps not for the entire season.

The effects of Ryan's loss will be significant.  He was the starting SAM linebacker the past two seasons and in 2012, he led the team in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, and forced fumbles.  On passing downs he often put his hand down as a defensive end and rushed the passer.  He's a whirling dervish with a nose for the football and one of Michigan's lone pass rushing threats; on top of that, he was an emotional leader and one of the guys who could be counted on to make a play or two a game to spark the defense.  Yours truly picked him as the most underrated recruit in the 2010 class, and that was certainly proving to be true prior to the injury.

The question is: What does Michigan do now?

Option #1: Fifth year senior Cameron Gordon would presumably move into the starting role.  When healthy, he's been the backup to Ryan for the past couple seasons.  The 6'3", 233-pounder made 17 tackles and 3 tackles for loss in 2012; as a safety and linebacker in 2010, he was a Second Team Freshman All-American with 77 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, 4 pass breakups, and 2 fumble recoveries.  He's a capable player but without the star quality of Ryan.

Option #2: Move junior Brennen Beyer from weakside end back to SAM.  Beyer played outside linebacker as a true freshman in 2011, making 11 tackles as a backup.  He has recorded just 1/2 a tackle for loss in two seasons and forced just 1 fumble, so he's not much of a playmaker.  But if he could shed a few pounds from his bulked-up, 6'3", 254 lb. frame, he could be serviceable at his old position.  Meanwhile, Michigan has junior Frank Clark and sophomore Mario Ojemudia at weakside end, both of whom played last year and have flashed big-play ability at times.

Option #3: Move sophomore Joe Bolden from middle linebacker to SAM.  Bolden is a 6'3", 222 lb. kid with some playmaking ability who has the height and length to hold his own at SAM, but he would need to add some weight in order to hold the edge.  He had 31 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 1 sack as a freshman in 2012.  In the meantime, Michigan has a decent selection of players to man the inside linebacker spots, including my presumed starters there (Desmond Morgan and James Ross), fifth year senior Mike Jones, redshirt sophomore Antonio Poole, or redshirt freshman Kaleb Ringer; a couple freshmen will arrive in the summer (Ben Gedeon and Mike McCray).

Option #4: Install a freshman backup.  Gedeon projects as an inside linebacker, but McCray is a bit of a middle linebacker/outside linebacker tweener.  He's listed at 6'3", 225 lbs. on his recruiting profile, but he might be a little bit smaller than that.  Still, Beyer played the position as a freshman, and he too was about 6'3", 225 lbs. at the time.

Option #5: Move sophomore Mario Ojemudia from weakside end to SAM.  Ojemudia is 6'3", 244 lbs. and played a chunk of time in 2012, notching 11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery.  This would likely be contingent on keeping Beyer at weakside end, since Michigan can't really afford to move two of their three experienced weakside ends to linebacker.

Option #6: Do something wild.  Lightly regarded redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz was an outside linebacker before moving to tight end last spring, but he has played in just one game so far.  Sophomore Royce Jenkins-Stone is just 6'2" and 215 lbs., and he balked at the idea of playing SAM in the hopes of being a middle linebacker, but the coaches could force his hand.  Incoming freshman Wyatt Shallman was recruited as a running back, but he played defensive end in high school and could see a chance for playing time at SAM once he arrives on campus.

Option #7: Just say "F*** it" and run a nickel the whole time.  In Greg Robinson's inaugural defense in 2009, he put converted safety Steve Brown at SAM, and Brown had a decent season despite being around 210 lbs.  Perhaps someone like Marvin Robinson could have success in a similar role.

16 comments:

  1. Do you think Ojemudia would be able to drop in coverage because I remember seeing Jake line up over the slot frequently...

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    1. Ojemudia played DT in high school, and I would not really trust him on drops anytime soon. That's my biggest concern with potentially moving him to SAM.

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  2. I'd try Ojemudia some despite Thunder's opinion on moving defenders from front to back.

    I always thought that he looked as fast as he did quick, wondered why Herrington never moved him back at Harrison and was afraid maybe it was because he couldn't learn the coverages.

    I really don't know our coverages even a little and have no idea how much coverage responsibility SAM has against the passing game in out system, but if you want a playmaker at SAM, after Gordon, I'm giving the first shot to Ojemudia.

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  3. Ojemudia seems like he has the right size and athleticism but lacks coverage experience.

    To me, Bolden to SAM is the most logical choice. But ultimately I think it depends on how confident the coaches are in the Dline's ability to get pressure on the QB. Based on recent history, in which we haven't gotten a ton of passrush out of the front four, it seems pretty important to have a playmaker at that spot. Bolden has the closest skillset to Ryan. plus this would get the three best linebackers on the field. but his size (or lack there of) is a bit of a concern. Even the bigger Ryan had some trouble holding up against blocks.

    On the other hand, if the Coaches think that we can get adequate pressure out of Clark, Ojemudia, Charlton, etc., then it might make sense to opt for a more conservative player at the position like beyer, who won't be a huge playmaker but should be able to hold up against the run.

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  4. I think Cam Gordon can do well in Ryan's spot, but we'll need someone to step up as a pass rusher. This won't be as bad as losing Countess last year since we're deep (ish) at LB compared to corner last year.

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  5. It would be a shock if it's not Cam Gordon.

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    1. I certainly think it will be Gordon who steps in as the starter, but you still need one or two backups who practice there totally/almost exclusively.

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    2. I agree, but the way you structured them as distinct 'options' makes it seem like it's one or the other. The options for the backup to Gordon are interesting.

      I think there may be scheme changes coming unless another LB (beyond Gordon-Morgan-Bolden-Ross) proves capable of significant minutes. Otherwise it'll be a DE type, who probably can't do the same things in space that Ryan can. Gordon himself isn't going to be as strong against the run, so it's going to be a big adjustment for Mattison.

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  6. I like the idea of moving Bolden to SAM but not at Cam's expense. Bolden as a back up would be nice but I think Cam's earned the right to start in JMFR's absence.

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    1. This seems least likely to me, since they'll want 3 guys to rotate (at least) for MLB and WLB. Maybe if another kid steps up from the group of backups, it would allow Bolden to move but Gideon is the only guy that seems like he might have the potential to effectively pass Bolden.

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  7. Ok, so, which option do you favor, amd which option do you think most likely?

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    1. I would like to see Gordon there, and then I would like to see Bolden slide over to be the SAM backup.

      I think the coaches will put Gordon there, but I think #2 and #3 are equally likely - Beyer or Bolden as a backup. The coaches seem to like Beyer, but he never makes any plays. I don't see a reason to preserve his role as the starter at WDE.

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    2. I could see Beyer deployed against run-oriented teams and Avery used more against passing teams, with Gordon getting the bulk of snaps in either situation.

      In my book that is most likely, if only because Clark/Ojemudia/Charlton seem good enough to hold down WDE without Beyer.

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  8. Personally, I'd like to see Cam start as he has already been practicing (and playing as a backup) at the SAM spot. Move Beyer back to SAM as the backup to Gordon, as Frank Clark, Mario O. and Taco Charlton are all better options at WDE. I'd prefer to see Boldon stay at MLB.

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  9. There was a reason Gordon was the back-up. He couldn't hold his own at the line of attack and was not the play maker needed.

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    1. Maybe that was the reason - and maybe Jake Ryan was awesome.

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