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Sunday, October 24, 2021

Michigan 33, Northwestern 7

 

Blake Corum (image via WXYZ)

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FIRE MCNAMARA! OR DON'T! After the game yesterday, I hopped on Twitter and came across a tweet saying "Cade [McNamara] has missed almost everything today." I found that to be a very odd statement, considering he completed a season-high 74% of his passes. McNamara finished 20/27 for 129 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, which is a pitiful number. After I called the Twitterer out for being factually incorrect, he relented and lamented the fact that McNamara missed the deep shots down the field. Which leads me to my next thought.

Hit the jump for more.


FIRE GATTIS! OR DON'T! I have a few issues with Gattis's play calling and play designs, and they popped up against Northwestern once again. First of all, I don't think he runs nearly enough RPO's despite having a strong running game and a quarterback who can physically and mentally handle it. Second, I think Gattis does a poor job of scheming downfield pass routes open. The latter point is relevant here, because the issue I have with the "Bench McNamara!" crowd is that nothing deep was open against Northwestern. (Caveat: I don't have all-22 film, so maybe there were open receivers I couldn't see on TV.) When McNamara was throwing - and missing - deep balls, was it because he was supposed to throw it deep on those plays? If that's the case, the guys he was throwing to were well covered. McNamara mostly threw the ball out of reach to guys who had a player over the top or were double-covered. The only deep ball placement I really had an issue with was the throw to tight end Luke Schoonmaker, which I think should have been completed.

Michigan quarterbacks regress under Gattis. We've seen it for three years straight. After completing over 64% of his passes in 2018 under Pep Hamilton, Patterson completed 56.2% of his passes in 2019. Last year Joe Milton was benched after completing just 56.7% of his passes. Now here we are through seven games of the 2021 season, and McNamara is #9 in the conference in completion percentage and passer rating, along with being #8 in yards per attempt. Michigan has one of the best running games in the entire country, and the offensive coordinator still can't scheme up open receivers downfield with any kind of consistency. Of course having Ronnie Bell injured and out for the season doesn't help, but Bell was never the fastest guy to get over the top, anyway; Bell was the guy who generally made tough catches over the middle or who caught short passes and ran well after the catch.

I'm a firm believer in "Don't fix it if it ain't broke." Michigan is 7-0 and finding ways to win. That way is generally not the passing game, but as long as McNamara is not taking sacks, not turning over the ball, and running the entire offense efficiently, I would not make a change. If Michigan were to stumble in the MSU game next week - including poor play from the quarterback - then I might consider inserting freshman J.J. McCarthy. But here's the thing: McCarthy will regress, too. Not only is it practically impossible to expect zero turnovers and deep touchdowns every few throws, but if you don't believe me that McCarthy is headed for regression, just look at my point in the above paragraph.

The Ambiguously Good Duo. Blake Corum (19 carries, 119 yards, 2 TD) and Hassan Haskins (23 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD) are such a fun combo to watch. Corum has great burst and the ability to make people look silly in the open field, and Haskins finds a way to push piles, jump over people, and just slither his way to extra yards. Corum is obviously the more explosive one, but Haskins is so consistent that it's tough to say which one is more fun to watch. I had been hoping that Donovan Edwards (5 carries, 18 yards) would get an opportunity to play earlier in this one, but his ball security issues popped up late when he caught a swing pass and fumbled.

The defense played very well overall. The breakaway 75-yard touchdown by Evan Hull was disappointing, but the Wildcats managed just 25 yards rushing outside of that play. Altogether, they rushed 23 times for 100 yards. That one play was a simple outside zone play where the linebackers and safeties didn't fill properly. It was kind of a fluke, considering how often outside zone gets run without turning into a huge gain. The other terrible play by the defense was on a funky shifting formation in which Northwestern quarterback Ryan Hilinski threw the ball on an arrow route to the flat and missed a wide open tight end on a corner route, a play that might have turned into a long touchdown. On those plays it's tough to maintain eye discipline, so personally, I like to check to zone coverage on those shifts just to make sure nothing pops open deep.

The refs didn't take center stage, but they were crappy in a supporting role. The officiating in the Nebraska game took center stage because it was a close game and they got calls wrong on huge, game-turning plays (touchdowns, interceptions, etc.). The officiating in this one was more subtly bad. The two main poor calls were a) on a jump ball into the endzone when Northwestern's cornerback had his arm wrapped entirely around Cornelius Johnson's waist and didn't get called and b) on a go route against D.J. Turner where Northwestern's receiver pushed the Michigan corner out of the way while Turner was looking for the ball, and somehow Turner got called for pass interference.

33 comments:

  1. 1) Great content
    2) RPOs is spelled with no apostrophe, according to both the Associated Press Stylebook and the Chicago Book of Style.
    3) WRT RPOs, MgoBlog (especially Seth) seems to think that McNamara can't run the RPO, which is why Seth gives him the cyan circle. Comments?
    4) I 100% with the QB regression issue.
    5) It seems like McNamara can't "throw his receivers open" insofar as (as the announcers identified during the broadcast) he doesn't throw it into the open area for his receivers. IOW, if the WR has the CB beaten by a 1/2 step with the open field available, then our QB throws it straight downfield, which negates the 1/2 step and enables the CB to knock the ball away. This happened on many of the downfield throws.

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    1. Edit to add: 4) I 100% *agree* with the QB regression issue

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    2. My fear is that mccarthy is far from ready. I don’t think coaches are idiots they would put him out there more if they thought he could handle it. I saw a comment by space coyote (I believe) on twitter that made the point the McNamara is much better at anticipating a receiver getting open. Not sure if true, but as much as McNamara has struggled at times and his batted ball problem, I think Mccarthy would play more if he was ready. lets hope he makes significant improvement over the summer. I am not for benching McNamara but there is no way we can stay with Ohio state if he plays like he is now.

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    3. We saw Cade do quite well with RPO last year ... Not sure what happened there

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  3. On Haskins and Corum, I couldn't agree more. Both run so differently, and make remarkable plays (after contact), in their own way ... In comes Edwards, and he clearly isn't ready yet


    It's almost like RBs do matter

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  4. I'am more disappointed with the play calling by Gattis then anything.

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  5. Blake and Corum have to be the co-offensive MVP for the first half. Honestly, I don't think we would be 7-0 with Higdon or Smith. Best running back we had since Hart (not counting Denard)?

    I agree that we should not fix what is not broken. Stick with Cade as a starter. But I would exclusively play JJ in the redzone. At least he brings an additional run threat that Cade does not bring. I am sure he can do the simple throws that Cade is being asked to do in the redzone in any case. If he gets sacked, well we have a great kicker in Jake Moody that anything below 40yards is almost automatic for him.

    If we finish 10-2 this year (a great season by any means), do we let go of Gattis given that we have "overachieved on offense" but regressed on qb development?

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    1. Meant to say Haskins and Corum...

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    2. My midseason MVPs on offense: Steuber, Hayes, and All.

      On defense: Hutchinson

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    3. Well, Lank, we don't often agree on a ton, but I will say that I definitely think Stueber is an unsung hero of this team.

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    4. OTs matter.

      That's why in the NFL they are paid about twice as much on average as RBs.

      https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/

      By salary, RBs matter a bit more than FBs, Long Snappers, and Punters. But less than any other position including kickers and guards. Unless these NFL guys are idiots and paying the wrong people...

      Is it funny that people are willing to see it as a coincidence that Michigan's best looking RBs just happened come along at the same time? I think it is.

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    5. 1) RBs matter more in the college game that in the pros. Why? Corum can juke out college LBs and DBs. Haskins can power through college DTs and LBs. In the pros, no chance. All the shiftness and power are somehow negated when you are in NFL

      2) RBs matter less than OLs. In general I agree. If you have a great OL who can create holes for the RBs, the RBs will have a great yardage. But... I believe OLs are as much about cohesiveness and schemes as it is about individual talent. If you ask me to pick 1 stud RB or 1 Stud Guard, I would pick 1 stud RB in college.

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    6. @FT

      Agree it's more likely in college, but some guys do make a difference at the NFL level too. Barry Sanders for example.

      It's also far less likely in college than High School. Particularly at a place like Michigan where historically you have a stable of guys who are often the best athlete in their state.

      So you plug in a Higdon or a Smith or an Isaac or a Charbonnet or hell even a Tru Wilson and it hardly moves the needle. These are interchangeable grunts at the NFL and at Michigan. Even though they're the best athlete on the team sometimes, there's plenty of them. Most of the time anyway...

      So yeah, it's all relative. But even now with the best RB we've had this century IMO, heavy RB utilization, and not much proven depth behind the primary duo... If Corum misses a game how much is the dropoff would we see? Is it really bad if Haskins gets a heavier workload and Edwards gets more snaps? Would we notice?

      I doubt it matters much but I would rather not find out.

      I don't think the NFL and college are ALL that different in this regard because when it really counts, against elite defenses, the talent is NFL caliber. That's why Wisconsin held Corum to 3.1 ypc and Haskins to 2.5 ypc. OSU will likely be a similar deal. PSU and MSU -- now those could be more interesting. Corum could MATTER in that context. I hope he does.

      Mostly agree on point 2. Cohesiveness and consistency are critical. How studly of a RB are we talking? Saquan Barkley mattered a lot. If you're asking if I pick Mike Hart or Steve Hutchinson I'm picking Hutchinson and I don't think it's very close.

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    7. The difference is the drop-off. Is it Mike Hart to Kingston Davis? Then I'm taking Hart, as long as the drop-off at OL is from Hutchinson to Mason Cole.

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    8. There we go agreeing again Thunder.

      ...Though it could be noted that Davis ran for a Michael Coxian 8.5 ypc while at Michigan. Maybe he was just sidetracked by off field stuff like Brandon Minor.

      ...It could also be noted that Hutchinson is an NFL HOFer. While Cole was a very good college player and is still a solid NFL player, ultimately we're comparing a HOFer to backup. That's a big dropoff if the NFL means anything.

      Give me Tru Wilson instead of Davis (since Davis can't be counted on to not be suspended) and I'll go with Hutchinson/Wilson combo over Cole/Hart.

      Ditto Drake Johnson who also averaged a full half yard more than Mike Hart (5.5 vs 5.0) over his career.

      Basically any low 3-star or high end walk-on who is serviceable can produce comparable rushing production with a quasi-legend, all conference player, and NFL draft pick.

      Historically speaking, the success of Michigan's run game has always been driven by excellent OL, not excellent runners. NFL success supports that assertion as does the fact that the supposed star RBs are rarely missed after they leave Ann Arbor. Hart left, Minor stepped in, no big drop off associated with the change in RB. On it's continued ever since...

      And yeah it's true that it's tough to tie a single OL to anything substantial either at the team level. But if you look at the RB as equivalent to a single OL the world starts making a lot more sense. The year to year variances in YPC (e.g., Toussaint) start making more sense... Except that RBs rotate while OL generally play the entire game. So maybe more like half a lineman.

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    9. That last comment reads more troll-like than I intended. Apologies.

      My point is that for all the hype even the best Michigan RBs don't make much difference while the OL are comparatively more impactful.

      Maybe Corum can change that but I'd bet that guys like Steuber and Hayes are going to go on to more NFL success than Haskins even though Haskins gets way more attention and credit. I think that's because they are more impactful as players in college, as well as in the pros.

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    10. I think these debates are wonderful because we are 7-0...I think the OL and the RBs have performed very well this year. The ceiling of this team would have been lower without each of them.

      I just wish that Pep Hamilton is running this offense as supposed to Gattis. This is clearly not "speed in space". At least not what Gattis intended. This is more of Jim Harbaugh run-based offense which would have suited Pep more.

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    11. I think the offense has evolved quite a bit from Fish -> Hamilton -> Gattis. Hamilton's contribution was underrated IMO. Gattis is still unproven in my mind but the needle is trending positive.

      That said, I think we should acknowledge that this year's team maybe utilizing it's personnel very well. The OL is real good. The RBs are good. The lead TE does everything from playing FB to WR. The WR group faced a ton of turnover and attrition and the QB is a limited game manager. There are some lemons but also plenty of sugar, so they are making lemonade.

      And for all the talk about "you need to be balanced to win", I think the best chance for success against OSU is old school clock control. Keep their offense off the field and bleed the clock running 3, 4, 7 yards at a time. Limit possessions, grind them on one end, and hope you make some plays on D.

      For all the offseason talk about needing to score 40 or 50 to win big we see a lot of defense and run heavy upsets. Two big ten teams ranked in the top 25 got knocked off by teams that passed for 52 yards and 38 yards.

      I believe the Harbaugh/Gattis collaboration can work really well, even if they have very different philosophies they can blend like a couple in a good relationship.

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    12. The offense might look a whole lot different if Collins, Bell, and Worthy were starting WRs and JJ McCarthy was a junior instead of a freshman. They are playing to their personnel, IMO.

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  6. I disagree about QB regressing under Gattis. Or at least it's too early to say.

    The biggest counterargument is that Cade is better than he was last year. The second one, less obvious, is that Patterson got better too.

    McNamara is getting better. There was a collective delusion around Cade this offseason. Waving away his PSU game and taking Rutgers way too seriously. I though the guy who got beaten out by Joe Milton wasn't very good and would get replaced as soon as the newcomers got legs under them. But I was wrong. McNamara is solid and aware of his own limitations. He made a 15 yard out throw against NW that was pretty impressive to me. The limitations are there but he throws a catchable deep ball, avoids mistakes, and mostly makes good decisions. He's better than the QB who threw for under 50% and 3 point something yards per attempt against PSU last year. The Wisconsin game was a real one. Contrast it with PSU. I feel quite confident Cade will be better against PSU than he was last year.

    I'd argue he's also improving this year. You need look no further than pass attempts to see that he has gotten better and earned the team's trust. No one would reasonably argue that Blake Corum is getting worse but he went from averaging over 8ypc in the first 3 games to averaging 4 point something in his last 4. He's not regressing as a player. The competition just got better.

    As for Patterson. Consider the games where he had passer ratings about 175.

    As a soph at Miss he had 3, cupakes all (S.Alabama, Tenn-Martin, Vanderbilt)
    As a junior he had 4, also cupcakes (WMU, SMU, Maryland, Rutgers)
    As a senior with Gattis, he had 4 as well but they came against legit teams (Rutgers, ND, MSU, Indiana) and mostly in the back half of the schedule.

    The start of the Gattis era was extremely bumpy but things turned right around halftime of PSU. Shea Patterson played the best football of his career after that, under Gattis. It wasn't good enough to beat OSU or Alabama but that's also true of younger Patterson.

    I'd argue Milton got better too but I don't want to go down that rabbit hole...

    JJ is going to improve as well. He's just not ready yet to make the decisions and reads that are needed to beat MSU, PSU, OSU. McNamara may not have what it takes to beat those teams either but given he helped us beat Wisconsin I'd ride with him. Keep sprinkling in JJ to put the pressure on Cade. Keep giving defenses another look. Keep getting JJ more experience.

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    1. Haha, take any stat, completion percentage, TD-INT, QBR, RTG ... Wins-Losses ... pick any, and the guy between Shea & Cade got worse, not better

      JFC

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  7. Run da baw!

    My defense of Cade aside this team is throwing way too often, burning downs and drives on things they aren't good at.

    The best drive of the game was the first of the second half where Michigan ran it down their throats. No successful passes were completed. Touchdown. Next drive the RBs don't touch the ball and it's a 3 and out. The drive after that no pass attempts and Touchdown. Next drive - again no successful pass completions - FG. Then 4 Haskins runs and a Touchdown.

    Your QB is a game manager. Run the ball!

    Now, this is Northwestern so whatever. It doesn't really matter and this game was never seriously in doubt but... the reason we struggled early is that Michigan was throwing too often. Maybe that's OK and you want to work on things - like people were screaming for after NIU. I just really hope they don't burn so many downs on the pass game against MSU, PSU and OSU.

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    1. Questioning the coaches? Tsk, tsk

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    2. Leaving this troll job up or "This comment has been removed by the author."?

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  8. 7-0! I forgot to lead with celebrating. This season has already exceeded many peoples expectations including mine. Easy to forget now way back to the beginning of last month. The offense has gotten about as well as can be expected. The big hope with the OL becoming dominant has come to fruition, even with some injuries to the OGs. The backs look great and they absolutely deserve the hype they got - the big guy without much speed and the too small guy with plenty of talent. The QB situation is what it is but the coaches are playing it perfectly IMO. Lean on your strength and build up your weakness.

    BUT...the BIG surprise is absolutely unequivocally the defense. We heard our DTs were too small but here we are with Don Brown recruits and what looks like a pretty damn elite DL. Smith, Hinton, Hutch, and Ojabo are doing work and their backups are more than good enough for most of the Big Ten. Ross is the McNamara of the defense, he's got some limitations but he's heady and likable. Definitely worry about the other LB spot against the upcoming schedule but they at least have options.

    2 standouts from Northwestern.

    Turner - obviously had a huge game but now we've got a clear 3rd CB to throw into the mix just as we enter the part of the schedule with scarier WRs. Nebraska thought they had a matchup and...they did not.

    Anthony - Just going of the recruiting stuff I was pretty skeptical about a big bodied 3-star local kid we battled MSU for. But Anthony can move. Very promising for the future and useful for the present as we try to fill in for Bell and Wilson (in addition to Jackson and Worthy). Can he return kickoffs?

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    1. Maybe offensive guards don't matter? Lose two, and we don't miss a beat. Go to Edwards, and the difference is obvious (even without the turnover)

      Silly to even write such things

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    2. Edwards has the same YPC as Corum.

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    3. @ Lank 12:51 a.m.

      Do yards per carry matter now? In garbage time and/or against inferior opponents? In past arguments you've said they don't.

      Just trying to figure out which side of the fence you're coming down on today.

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    4. When in Rome...

      You tell me!

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  9. @Thunder.

    Can you clarify what you mean when you say JJ is going to regress. Because so far he's a backup QB being mostly used as a runner. I don't know what it means for someone in that situation to regress. Are you saying he's going to get passed over by incoming recruits?

    I think it's pretty obvious that JJ is going to get better. Like more than 90% of true freshman QBs.

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