Michigan's defense won the day. The scoreboard says 38 points for Michigan, which is a good amount of points, but the Wolverines won the game with their defense. They held the Badgers to 43 total rushing yards, which is their lowest total since they had -26 yards against Northwestern in November 2015. Wisconsin's leading rusher was freshman Braelon Allen, who ran 5 times for 19 yards. Those overall numbers were aided by -13 yards from backup quarterback Chase Wolf and -21 yards from starting quarterback Graham Mertz, who were sacked a total of 5 times. Wisconsin's only real sustained success was a drive near the end of the first half when Mertz was 5/5 and threw a touchdown to wide receiver Chimere Dike.
Hit the jump for more.
Michigan is a walking team. For the last couple weeks, Michigan's running game has been more of a walking team. After the starting running backs averaged 3.4 and 3.2 yards per carry last week, this week it was 2.5 yards (Hassan Haskins) and 3.1 (Blake Corum). Of course, it was against Wisconsin, the leading rushing defense in the country, but last week the team stopping the run consistently was Rutgers. I believe that Michigan will get back to running the ball effectively in the coming weeks, so this isn't a permanent damper. But if anyone believed that Michigan was going to steamroll the Big Ten and lead the country in rushing - or be close to it - for the remainder of the season, that was clearly a mirage. The Wolverines are now tied for #8 in rushing yards per game with 255, and the past two weeks, they have been held to 112 yards.
Cade McNamara played better than the numbers suggest. Michigan came out throwing - surprisingly, on the first play of the game - and it didn't work out too well. The Wolverines suffered a few drops early from Cornelius Johnson (2) and Daylen Baldwin (1), plays in which the receivers got two hands on the ball and couldn't reel them in. They weren't perfect throws, but they shouldn't have been dropped by high-level receivers. Instead of getting frustrated, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis still stuck with the pass more than in past weeks, and it worked out well. McNamara (17/28, 197 yards, 2 touchdowns) eventually got on the same page with his receivers, and backup J.J. McCarthy even came in to throw a 56-yard touchdown pass to Baldwin.
McNamara vs. McCarthy. I couldn't help thinking of the Brady vs. Henson quarterback situation from 1999, when starter Tom Brady would play the first quarter, Drew Henson would play the second quarter, and Lloyd Carr would pick the hot hand to play the second half. It was a 13-10 ball game early in the second half when McCarthy entered the game to hand off the ball a couple times. Then on third down, an obvious passing situation, McNamara was called into the game. If you have a quarterback in the game whom you don't trust to throw the ball on third down in a three-point game, then he shouldn't be in the game in the first place. I'm not saying McCarthy should be on the sideline the entire game, but that substitution just didn't make sense. Some tough decisions are going to have to be made in the future, so I'll say something that stirred up a bunch of controversy a couple years ago: McNamara or McCarthy will likely not finish his career at Michigan. In the age of the transfer portal, McNamara can find a job where he's The Guy, and so can McCarthy. But it's nice to have two solid quarterbacks for now.
Villari vs. Bowman. Dan Villari is a runner - and not a dynamic one - and Alan Bowman threw an interception on an attempted slant throw as the first passing attempt of his Michigan career. I guess it's nice that they each got a snap in a tough road environment (although the crowd was checked out by then), but neither one is ready for increased playing time. Michigan needs both of them at quarterback for now, but Villari looks like a probably position-switcher down the road. The off-season comparison to Taysom Hill was fun for a millisecond, but Villari's no Taysom.
Daxton Hill questions. I thought it was interesting that Wisconsin seemed to be going after safety Daxton Hill in coverage. Personally, I know there has been talk that he's Michigan's best cover guy and will be a corner in the NFL, but he rarely makes plays on the ball in man coverage. It's not like he gets beaten by 5 yards; he's typically right there but he also gives up his share of plays. In this game it was a touchdown and a long completion to Chimere Dike. He did make an interception in zone coverage later, and that's where I think he's best long-term. He has great change-of-direction skills and explosiveness, so he can break on balls in a hurry. But sometimes he's too aggressive in man coverage, lunges, and gets a little out of position. I think he's almost better off playing soft man, waiting for his guy to make a move, and then breaking on the ball. But by golly, when he decides to go, he looks good, such as when he knocked Mertz out of the game.
The defense got after it. Aidan Hutchinson didn't make a sack for the first time this year, but he put pressure on the quarterback and forced the quarterback to other guys - mainly David Ojabo, who had 2.5 sacks. Josh Ross was back to his starting role after getting injured last week, and Michigan's defensive line overall played its best game of the season. I think Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton are finally rounding into form, too. Wisconsin's is not a great offense, and they don't stress a defense in a ton of different ways (one of things I mentioned liking about Rutgers). But they do present problems with gap integrity, and Michigan handled themselves well.
What does this mean for Michigan? Michigan might be good. Wisconsin might be bad (though their defense is still good). At 5-0 and 1-3, respectively, those might be these teams' realities for this season. But it's still Wisconsin. This is a team that Michigan hadn't beaten in Madison since 2001, whether they're ranked this season or not. I've seen social media complains that Michigan is not getting the same perception boost that Penn State got when they beat the Badgers, but that's to be expected. Every perennially solid team is somehow expected to go 12-0 or or 11-1 or 10-2 to start the season, and the "upsets" are huge in week two or three. By the time week ten rolls around, there's just not as much emotion attached to "upsetting" a 5-4 team or a 3-6 team. So yes, it's a good win for Michigan and it should be celebrated. But at the same time, this is not the Wisconsin of yesteryear with a Watt brother rushing the passer, a first round pick at running back, and a couple first round offensive linemen.
That was a helluva game from our guys. They showed up and our coaches did too. Joining in the fun of Jump Around was such a cool moment and a great sign of culture. In a close game at that point, big conference game on the road, nobody was tight. This team wanted to be there.
ReplyDeleteAlso - how cool was that atmosphere? Even with Wisconsin's fans being frustrated and grumpy with an uncharacteristically weak offense, that atmosphere still cannot be touched at the NFL level.
Agree with Thunder that the defense was the big star of this one. Ojabo has really emerged as a weapon off edge. The offseason changes seemed designed, as much as anything else, as a "not again will I watch Wisconsin walk over us" statement by Harbaugh and they certainly delivered. Hinton and Smith are big drivers of this but Morris and Ojabo seem to deserve a lot of credit too. Of course Hutchinson just continues to be a terror and is the team's MVP.
Disagree with Thunder on the QB situation. I really like the run-package sub. It doesn't matter if it's JJ or Dan, Cade is just not a threat to run. Having it, at a minimum forces teams to prepare for it. If anything I'd like to see more of it, though it needs to be better executed.
I'm also not putting those incompletions on drops. I was coached that if you're a receiver and the ball is thrown to you it's because you got open enough and once that happened it's on you to catch it. Close enough to touch it you're close enough to catch it was the gist. But Cade's throwing behind his receivers way too often this year. It's less obvious than a ball hurled over a guys head or turfed but you can't keep throwing half a yard behind guys and expect them to catch it when they're running in the other direction. Cade needs to adjust on this.
That all said, after a rough start Cade did settle in and played the best game of his career. I think JJ's probably going to be a better QB at some point but there's no way in hell you bench Cade right now. The lack of sacks is a credit to the OL and coaches sure but Cade's mistake-avoidance is both a curse and a gift. And his downfield throws maybe arm punts at times but they are catchable balls. Cade is nothing like Denard but he's also kind of like Denard. He's limited as a passer, his accuracy comes and goes, but he's elite at one thing and then when he needs to throw it down the field he lets his receivers make plays on it. With Denard that thing was running with Cade it's reading. Premature and hopeful assessment, yes, but we've got no sacks and no INTs from Cade and we're 5 games into the season and have played at least 2 legit defenses.
With the D and run game looking so strong, that reading ability, that mistake avoidance, Cade's strengths seems to be a great fit with what the team needs. You can probably work around those limitations most of the time. Sometimes reliability is more important than highlights and it's not about who is fastest or who can throw the farthest.
5-0! What a surprising and encouraging start to this season.
Usually, I wait for Thunder to pick his play of the game, but today I'm offering a candidate for consideration.
ReplyDeleteIt's way early in a 0-0 ballgame. We are throwing from our end zone. Keegan gets beat like a drum. McNamara sees it, slips away, and finds Corum. The Corum will not fall down and gets us the hell out of there with some real tough running and great effort.
That play was huge on multiple levels, if we take a safety there, this whole game can change and not in a good way right there. Your OC's whole attitude about dialing up the pass could well change. The general conversation changes from we came to Wisconsin and got aggressive with our play calling, to our O-line still can't match up physically with Wisconsin's tough D-line. But the tone was set for the rest of the game. It could have very easily been much different.
Then ... We run a little inside something to Corum and he gets hit really hard ... really, really, way double hard ... it was heard all over the stadium and 30,000 or so people went "ooooohhhh". the rest of the crowd winced. I don't know if it was said during the game, or if I read it in somebodies post game notes, but it was said that that hit caused Michigan to go to Hankins and cut back Corum's touches some.
But that ain't what happened at all. It was Corum who put the hit on their safety. It's been a long time since I say a running back punish a safety like that. This turned out to be way huge, as that kid left the ballgame. It was his replacement that Johnson blew past on the flea flicker.
Smith looked fit. Hinton is a way athletic big man. Watch him jump for joy at the end of his fumble recovery.
Vastardis did some mauling on some big tough people. He continues to surprise and impress me, although as previously disclose, I am now prejudiced in his favor.
Ok, McNamara, I've figured out why we never let him pull it and run. He can't run a lick. Ok, ok ... he can run better than I can, but he can't run better than I could, and that's a damning statement. He has really nice quick feet in the pocket, he is particularly good at moving laterally, he's very aware of danger without taking his eyes off of downfield. He is enormously brave and physically tough. In short, there is a lot toile about the kid. But he is a short legged little sucker and once he starts heading north and sough, or even east and west, for that matter, kid can't run a lick. Ok, maybe a lick, but barely.
So, on the play where it hit me between the eyes, the pocket broke down again, not sure on the culprit, McNamara makes his nice little quick footed move up, and away and then he takes off running, and it hit me. Billy Kilmer, he runs like a young Billy Kilmer. You have to be a certain age and then some, to know this look, but you can trust me, this is not a complementary opinion.
Now it's out there on film, an opponent might have to prepare for us thinking that it's cuz we don't want a QB injury. NO!!! The world now knows the truth.
I think this is what the McCarthey running plays are about. Make them have to prepare for it anyway. I have few worries about McCarthey's ability to throw it. I think McNamara came in because they wanted to run one of his throws. And yes, they both should have all the plays, but Freshman, 5 games in, on the road, Wisconsin.
Great point on Corum. I have no idea how he contorted himself to convert that first down but I know it took a lot of strength to get through the hit. He's a tough kid.
DeleteThe lack of home runs in the run game the last 2 week is really not a concern to me. The run game is moving the ball forward quite consistently. Getting above 4 ypc can be tough against real competition if you don't ever hit a big one. We know these backs will. Not a problem.
Agree Roanman. That completion to Corum, and his POP on the defender were huge!
Deleteto like.
ReplyDeleteIf only I could edit.
If only I did one thing at once.
As a coach, you no doubt understand team psychology; that is, what a team believes about itself, and how that can lead to better play. I wonder if this Michigan team, having overcome the obstacle of winning a tough game on the road, is coming to understand something about what it's capable of. There's a fine line between that and overconfidence, and I wonder if, and how well, this team is internalizing its 5-0 start. Any thought?
ReplyDelete1-3 looks really bad but Wisconsin's still a very good team. They've played 3 top 15 teams (assuming Michigan slides into that group) and been competitive in all of the losses. Even with a backup QB they may not lose another game this year (though Iowa certainly looks like a likely loss right now). Nobody should diminish what Michigan accomplished yesterday on the road because of the optics of 1-3.
ReplyDeleteI actually like what I saw from Dax yesterday. He's an elite athlete used to dominating physically and then he got beat (barely) 2 plays in a row. He didn't hang his head. He seemed to get mad and came ripping back with a great second half that featured an impressive INT and sent the QB out of the game with a big hit.
Roman Wilson - welcome to the show. He's flashed his speed before but that tough catch he made was a huge play and exactly the kind of thing he needs to be doing if he's going to be an elite receiver. Johnson and Baldwin had mixed days and they couldn't get Henning going but Wilson announced his presence.
Also want to shout out Erik All for being an unsung hero. It's been pointed out that he is playing fullback, WR, and tight end and doing all this pretty seamlessly. He hasn't gotten a ton of highlights as a receiver yet but he's an invaluable weapon for his versatility of skills.
Gattis and McDonald gave their skeptics something to chew on yesterday.
Good post Thunder. Our D is doing their job! I'm happy with the improvements, but would put too much on Wisconsin O; they're just bad. Still, our Defense played as well as could be asked of them
ReplyDeleteI get JJ earning reps, and think he's the starter NEXT year, but I didn't like the way it went to open the half: two handoffs, then expect your below average starter to come in cold for an obvious passing situation
Next week is a trap game. Martinez can run, and the Cornhusker Defense can give our run game further troubles ... we have to remain (at least a little) balanced
I was way wrong. Both the offense and the defense played better than I expected. The play calling was more aggressive than I expected. Even if Wisconsin turns out to be bad, this was a very solid road win. Hoping to see a continuation of the aggressiveness and high spirits at Nebraska.
ReplyDeleteI predicted a win, and they still outplayed expectations. What a refreshing feeling
DeleteNo kidding!
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