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RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is the #15 rushing team (218 yards/game) and averages 5.08 yards per carry, which is #30 in the country. That's good, not great, but it's impressive considering Michigan's starting quarterback isn't much of a threat to run at all. Hassan Haskins topped 1,000 yards last week and now has 216 carries for 1,063 yards and 13 touchdowns. Fellow star running back Blake Corum (778 yards, 10 TD on the ground) has missed the majority of the last three games with a lower leg injury, but he dressed for last week's game at Maryland and I would expect him back in action against the Buckeyes. Offensive line wise, Michigan is securely #1 in the country in tackles for loss allowed with just 2.18 per game; Georgia is next best with 3.18 per contest. Ohio State is #20 in tackles for loss (7.27 per game) and #11 in rushing defense (102 yards allowed/game). They allow just 3.1 yards per carry (#12) but have faced just 363 rushing attempts, which is the 15th fewest; I guess that's what happens when you score a bunch of points and teams have to pass to try to catch up. Safety Ronnie Hickman (6'1", 205 lbs.) leads the team with 83 tackles, followed by linebacker Cody Simon (6'2", 233) with 47, safety Bryson Shaw (6'0", 195) with 44, and linebacker Teradja Mitchell (6'2", 239) with 44. Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg (6'2", 235) is the biggest TFL guy with 5.5 in the run game this year. Michigan can't get in a track meet with OSU, so they will have to try to run the ball and sustain drives to keep the defense fresh.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #71 in passing offense (230 yards/game) and #41 in passing efficiency. Cade McNamara has completed 64.2% of his passes for 2,142 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions. After a slow start in passing volume, McNamara has now thrown for 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in his last four games, a stretch that includes Michigan State and Penn State. Last week's breakout star was third-string running back Donovan Edwards, who caught 10 passes for 170 yards and 1 touchdown. The previous week it was tight end Erick All (4 catches, 64 yards, 1 TD), whose 47-yard score was the game winner. No player has really developed as the go-to receiver, but multiple players are making key catches. Michigan is #4 in sacks allowed (0.82 per game). Ohio State is #14 in sacks (3.18 per game). Oddly, it's their defensive tackles getting the job done, led by Haskell Garrett (6'2", 300) with 5.5 and Tyleik Williams (6'3", 315) with 5.0. On the back end, Ohio State is #31 in interceptions, led by Hickman and safety Craig Young (6'3", 223), each of whom has 2 picks and 1 touchdown. In fact, the Buckeyes have returned 4 of their 11 interceptions to the house. Freshman cornerback Denzel Burke (6'1", 192) leads the team with 11 pass breakups. Altogether, the Buckeyes are #37 in passer rating defense.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #31 in rush defense (128 yards allowed/game) and #36 in yards allowed per carry (3.66). Middle linebacker Joshua Ross leads the team by a wide margin with 80 tackles; the next guys on the list are safety Dax Hill (53) and backup linebacker Junior Colson (51). Michigan is #95 in tackles for loss with 57 this season. I attribute this to so-so play from the defensive tackles and a young inside linebacker group outside of Ross. The defensive ends/outside linebackers also tend to run upfield at times, opening up some seams for cutbacks. Ohio State is #32 in rush offense (197 yards/game) and #1 in yards per carry (5.82). Freshman TreVeyon Henderson (5'10", 215) has 150 carries for 1,098 yards (7.32 yards/carry) and 14 touchdowns. The Buckeyes also have a couple battering rams in 225-pounders Master Teague (348 yards, 4 TD) and Miyan Williams (470 yards, 3 TD). Teague is a former starter who has been relegated to backup duty by the emergence of Henderson. The Buckeyes have a supremely talented offensive line, where they had the liberty to move multi-year starting tackle Thayer Munford (6'6", 320) in to the guard position because they had even better options at tackle, where Nick Petit-Frere (6'5", 315) and Dawand Jones (6'8", 360). I think this is a bad matchup for the Wolverines, especially when it comes to outside linebacker David Ojabo and inside linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green.
Advantage: Ohio State
PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #8 in pass defense (178 yards allowed/game) and #9 in passer rating defense. Those are pretty dang good numbers, especially considering that the Wolverines are #90 in interceptions and tied for #35 in sacks. The overall sack numbers are surprisingly low since Ojabo and Hutchinson each have 10 sacks; in other words, Michigan gets a pass rush from those two guys and virtually no one else. Safety Daxton Hill and cornerback D.J. Turner II both lead the team with 2 interceptions. Ohio State is #6 in passing offense (362 yards/game) and #3 in passer rating. Quarterback C.J. Stroud (6'3", 218) completes 71.1% of his passes for 3,468 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He threw 2 interceptions against Nebraska three weeks ago, but he has since thrown 11 touchdowns and 0 picks against Purdue and Michigan State. It's very possible that the Buckeyes will have three 1,000-yard receivers by the end of the season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (69 catches, 1132 yards, 6 TD), Garrett Wilson (60/939/11), and Chris Olave (58/848/13) are all stars and some think they'll all be first round picks at some point. The Buckeyes are #12 in sacks allowed. Stroud isn't a great runner, but he's mobile enough to escape a pass rush. I'm not sure who is going to be able to cover all three of those guys, since Michigan basically just has two cornerbacks available with any experience. Gemon Green may not be available, meaning the best remaining cover guys are probably Hill and freshman safety Rod Moore.
Advantage: Ohio State
ROSTER NOTES
- Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: WR Kamryn Babb, CB Cameron Brown, CB Denzel Burke, DT Jerron Cage, LB Reid Carico, CB Lejond Cavazos, LB Steele Chambers, DT Jacolbe Cowan, WR Emeka Egbuka, LB Tommy Eichenberg, QB Quinn Ewers, WR Julian Fleming, DE Tyler Friday, LB Palaie Gaoteote, DT Ty Hamilton, DE Zach Harrison, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Sam Hart, RB TreVeyon Henderson, S Ronnie Hickman, DT Antwuan Jackson, OT Donovan Jackson, S Jaylen Johnson, CB Jakailin Johnson, OT Paris Johnson, OT Matt Jones, OT Jawand Jones, CB Demario McCall, QB Kyle McCord, LB Mitchell Melton, QB Jack Miller, LB Teradja Mitchell, OT Thayer Munford, WR Chris Olave, OT Nick Petit-Frere, DE Noah Potter, S Josh Proctor, S Lathan Ransom, TE Joe Royer, TE Jeremy Ruckert, DE Jack Sawyer, DE Tyreke Smith, QB C.J. Stroud, OT Grant Toutant, DE J.T. Tuimolau, S Andre Turrentine, DT Taron Vincent, LB Kourt Williams, RB Miyan Williams, DT Tyleik Williams, CB Marcus Williams, WR Garrett Wilson, C Luke Wypler
- Ohio State LB coach Al Washington previously coached linebackers at Michigan
- Ohio State secondary coach Matt Barnes previously was an analyst at Michigan
- Ohio State defensive quality control guy Joe Bolden played linebacker at Michigan
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On November 30, 2019, Ohio State beat Michigan by a score of 56-27
- Shea Patterson completed 18/43 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
- Hassan Haskins rushed 12 times for 78 yards and 1 touchdown
- Ronnie Bell caught 6 passes for 78 yards
- Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins ran 31 times for 211 yards and 4 touchdowns
- Ohio State scored 14 points in each quarter
PREDICTION
- Ohio State 47, Michigan 32
Sorry, guys. I will predict a Michigan loss until I'm proven wrong.
Unfortunately, yeah.
ReplyDeleteBut that’s why you play the game. Maybe we can hit Stroud some and get him thinking. Maybe we can run on them some. Maybe Cade can pull it once or twice and pick up a first down or two with his feet. Maybe somebody can just go off and Biakabatouka them. Maybe Day loses his mind and starts tearing up yard markers, better yet hands out a forearm shiver to Dax.
Stranger things have happened.
Maybe Wilson can go 100 yards in three plays late for the win. Maybe ……………
This is not our most talented team in recent contests, and ohio is absolutely loaded. Thunder likes our offense more than their D, but I don't see it
ReplyDeleteWhat I do like - for the first time since Carr was here - is the intangibles. Harbaugh & staff have this team believing in themselves & each other. While we still get drops, passes to OL helmets, and other brain farts, this team does not give up. They may let up a bit, which helped Rutger, Wisconsin, Nebraska & sparty back in it, but they keep fighting. Each & every player, all units, all three phases of the game. This is mostly the same group who last year appeared to give up, and in recent years lose focus/fight. The coaching job has been about leadership & buy in, almost like we just went through a coaching change
I think we've got a chance to slow things down, and make just enough plays. For the first time since 2016, I'm picking a UM win. Intangibles win out this time, 26-24
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ReplyDeleteSorry bad grammar. Please let it snow. That may be the only way to slow down OSU's receivers. The cold weather won't hurt either.
ReplyDelete30th in ypc is "impressive considering Michigan's starting quarterback isn't much of a threat to run at all." This is a good point and you also have to consider that the pass game overall hasn't been much of a threat either.
ReplyDeleteThey've run into stacked boxes for much of the year. Considering that, I think we can say we have one of the better rushing offenses in the country, though I agree it's not dominant. That's the path with some timely support from the pass game. Get the ball to Erik and Andrel here and there but mostly...
Run da baw. Eat the clock. Limit possessions. Hope that variance is favorable and you get a turnover or impact special teams play advantage.
Michigan has kept up with OSU for a half many times, so if they can shorten it to a half-worth of plays, maybe we get what we want.
I like our chances a bit better than other years. But, must of us are in "fool me once shame on you, fool me 15 out of 16 times shame on me" mode, understandably. Excited for the game but I admit I made plans to make progress on the honey-do list if things go sideways again. I'll be back on TTB to celebrate Haskins and everybody else if we win and stay out of the muck if we don't.
Expectations - Low. Hopes - High. Go Blue!
11 tackles, 2.5 for loss and a pair of sacks.
ReplyDeleteThat's what happened in 2017 when Rashan Gary (stats above) and Chase Winovich (similar numbers) led the way to keeping underdog Michigan in the game against an elite OSU offense with future NFL starters at tackle. It's going to take a similar performance from Hutchinson and Ojabo tomorrow I believe for Michigan to have a shot.
McNamara is a helluva a lot better than O'Korn and our WR group is a lot better too, even without Bell. RB had a dyanmic duo in Evans and Higdon and they used Evans actually led the team in receiving that day.
Michigan enter the game as double digit underdogs. OSU throws a lot more now than they did back then but Alabama, OSU, and Georgia were the 3 best teams in the country. Our D isn't quite as good either but all the more reason why the DEs need to step up.
Michigan didn't win the game that day but they had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to win.
Woooohoooooo!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWe got the monkey off out backs. This team is special: not the most talented, and gaps were identified all over both sides of the ball preseason. But the intangibles. Coach Harbaugh gambled on a young staff and new schemes, resetting his tenure. My God, it worked! Players bought in; Captains led; players made plays and KEPT ON FIGHTING
ReplyDeleteHere's to Indy, and a shot at the CFB Playoffs
GO BLUE 〽️