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Never underestimate recruiting rankings. I listen to Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman's podcast pretty regularly, and Mandel made the point that usually in these playoffs, the more talented team wins. Winning as an underdog in the CFP is very, very tough to do. Georgia has one of the top few classes every single year, while Michigan seems to be anywhere from about #8 to #25 on a yearly basis. So when walk-on center Andrew Vastardis gets obliterated by the #22 player in the country (6'5", 275 lb. Travon Walker) on a pull . . . yeah, that's what happens. This isn't Rutgers or Indiana or Northwestern with 250-260 lb. 3-star defensive ends. The bottom line is that Georgia is the more talented team, at almost every position.
Hit the jump for more.
How did the coaches do? Honestly, I think Michigan's coaches did fine. It's easy to blame them for being unprepared. It's much harder to realize that any team that gets beaten badly looks like it was out-coached. Michigan couldn't run the ball, because the defensive line was too big and fast, and the linebackers were too fast. Michigan couldn't pass the ball because the defensive line was too big and fast. I have a couple questions about things that happened (Jaylen Harrell covering Brock Bowers, a swing pass to Donovan Edwards near the goal line, etc.), but there are questionable play calls or schemes in almost every game. One play call here or there does not change the outcome of the game.
The Joe Moore Award. Michigan was awarded the Joe Moore Award for having the best offensive line in the country, and as I've been saying for several weeks, this Michigan line is overrated. They got schooled by Georgia's defensive line, linebackers, and coaches. Now maybe there aren't many schools in the country who can do that to Michigan's line, but Georgia certainly didn't live in Alabama's backfield. Georgia allowed a higher yards per carry average to Alabama, Missouri, Florida, and UAB. Georgia allowed more points to Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina. I'm not saying all those teams or lines are better than Michigan's, but 27 carries for 88 yards is pretty paltry, and Michigan allowed 4 sacks and a ton of quarterback pressures.
Cade McNamara vs. J.J. McCarthy. There's plenty of time to discuss the two quarterbacks over the off-season, so I'll keep the discussion to this game only. Michigan's offensive line couldn't stand up to Georgia's front seven, which put McNamara (11/19, 106 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT) in a bind. I don't know that he ever truly had a clean pocket to throw the ball. He was replaced later in the game by McCarthy (7/17, 131 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), and Harbaugh said it was because McCarthy's athleticism gave him a better chance to escape the pressure. McCarthy made some great throws, and he made some terrible throws. He escaped from some clean pockets, and he made some amazing escapes from the grasp or near grasp of defenders. You can see the potential of McCarthy, but he's still very erratic with his decision-making and accuracy.
Vincent Gray got exposed. I made a tweet about Gray last night that made some people angry, but I stand by it. Gray had a rebound season in 2021 after a terrible 2020, but he's still the same athlete. He just played better and had more confidence this season. Regardless, he got torched and allowed two wide-open touchdowns to Georgia. One was a halfback pass, but it was man coverage and I don't know that Gray ever knew who was throwing the ball, so there's no excuse for coming off his receiver. The second was a bomb from Stetson Bennett to Jermaine Burton for a 57-yard touchdown, and Gray basically stopped running as he looked up for the ball while Burton got about 7 yards of separation. Gray was a 3-star and the #700 player in the country. Burton was a 4-star and the #82 player in the country. It's extremely difficult to make up for a lack of athleticism and speed on an island. That's why it's imperative for Michigan to recruit elite skill players. It's not a coincidence that the best Michigan defensive backs in the past decade or so are 4-star Jourdan Lewis, 4-star David Long, 4-star Lavert Hill, 5-star Jabrill Peppers, etc. On a national level, 3-star caliber skill players just can't cut it.
Speaking of tweets that pissed people off . . . I made a tweet about how Michigan can't recruit Mississippi, but Michigan can get the best players from Idaho. Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean was perhaps the best player on the field. He made 7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. Michigan took its fastest running, Blake Corum, and tried to get to the edge in multiple ways, and Dean didn't bat an eyelash. He's just as fast, if not faster than Corum. Dean is a 5-star from Mississippi. Michigan hasn't been able to land a single recruit from the state of Mississippi since cornerback Jeremy LeSueur in 1999. It is what it is, but the best football in the country is played in California, Texas, and the deep south (Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, etc.). Michigan has landed good players from under-recruited areas (Rhode Island, Connecticut, etc.), but when you're geographically or culturally cut off from Mississippi and a variety of other high-level recruiting areas, it makes it difficult. The Wolverines will almost never get 5-star kids from the deep south; their best bet is to get underrated guys who have to leave the region in order to get a chance to play at a big-time program.
I haven't mentioned Aidan Hutchinson yet. And that's because Hutchinson wasn't much of a factor. He finished with 4 tackles and 1 tackle for loss. He got after the quarterback a couple times, but Bennett was too quick and the opposite-side edge players let Bennett escape. Oh, and I certainly haven't mentioned outside linebacker David Ojabo, because he literally did not register any defensive stats. Hutchinson was held a few times (it only was called once), but that's the norm. He couldn't overpower 5-star, #10 overall player in 2018 Jamaree Salyer, who's 6'3" and 340 lbs.
I predicted a 31-20 Georgia victory. Nothing that happened really surprised me too much, except I expected Ojabo and Hutchinson to flush Bennett into a sack or two. I thought Michigan could scheme up a few more chunk passing plays, too, but McNamara just never had time to throw. Michigan just can't hang with the elite teams in the SEC, and that's the case with most teams. It's disappointing, but the ceiling for the Big Ten champions is a national championship game appearance if they get a good first round draw, such as an ACC or AAC or Big 12 or Pac-12 team. This was not a good first round draw.
This was a great season. As disappointing as New Year's Eve was, Michigan had an excellent year with their first College Football Playoff appearance, the first win over Ohio State in ten years, a ton of scoring, some great defense, a new record-holder for sacks, and a ton of exciting plays and players. Hopefully this sets the stage for great things to come.
My thoughts exactly. The contrast in talent was stark. What was the line from the broadcast. Ga had 20 5 stars on the team and M had 4 or 5?
ReplyDeleteThat being said, still a great season. This is the ceiling for big ten champs. I have some good friends from work one walked on at Ole Miss as a qb, played at southlake Carroll. The other is a big LSU booster. BIg one. They try to be kind but it is just not close. When you look at the number of players drafted by the NFL out of the SEC vs Big it is not close. The culture is different down there. OSU can compete talent wise but Ryan Day is not Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. This game really exposed how bad OSU got outcoached.
Not sure if anyone follows Tim Brando on twitter. He is interesting. He is very negative on the NCAA for a variety of reason but his comments on how they keep screwing up the CFP are interesting. Basically nobody outside of a few states cares about the Alabama/GA rematch and they need to do something. Was stupid to not make GA/AL play in semi's.
Oh well sour grapes, even with NIL I don't see this changing. Academics are always going to be an issue for M, ND and a few others.
Overall, yeah, you're right about the Big Ten vs. SEC when it comes to draft picks. Michigan does pretty well compared to most SEC teams, but outside of M/OSU/PSU, things get iffy while Alabama, Georgia, and LSU...also have Florida, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Kentucky, etc. producing talent, not to mention Texas and Oklahoma soon.
DeleteI certainly don't care about the GA/AL rematch, and I promoted making Michigan #1 and Cincinnati #4 for just that reason. I'm considering not watching the championship game for that reason. I probably will watch the beginning, but I'm not staying up late to ruin my sleep that night.
NIL can help out some, but the only way to solve it is for the NCAA and its conferences to figure something out regarding realignment. A lot of us saw this problem coming when the SEC, Big Ten, etc. started expanding to 14 teams, 16 teams, etc.
My opinion is they should just drop the charade and create a semi-professional conference of, at most, 24 schools. Have the academic aspect of the football program be nominal: basic tutoring, the ability to come back *later* and get their degree if they want to, but no pretense of doing school plus football at the same time.
DeleteLet the ABC/ESPN people drool over that, let's see if the country would care beyond the initial novelty of it, and let every other school that does NOT want that model to return to a simpler system of playing football without national championships in mind.
I think 24 is way too few. There are too many decent quality programs who would be left out.
DeleteI respectfully disagree. I agree there are many great programs, with good histories, great traditions, and dedicated staff. But there isn't enough top-level talent to support that many. Form a "super conference" with, say, 32 teams and the talent will coalesce around a few. We see that today in every conference, including the SEC.
DeleteTo be candid, my number 24 above was being charitable. To get a competitive conference where any team can compete implies 12 to 18 teams. Tops.
Thunder one more thing. Totally agree on Ojabo. I would be shocked if he played half the snaps in the game. First rounder??? Not yet. I know they draft on potential but he could really use another year
Delete@klctlc 1231, I bought my NC tickets right after the B1G title game. Trying to sell them now, but the price has ... dropped (significantly). Definitely a lack of demand for the UGa-Bama rematch
Delete@Anon 2:50, I always wanted to go back to the old Bowl system, and then a plus-1 for #1 & #2 after Bowl week. Money will prevent us from getting back to that, so now my hope is a 16team playoff
The semi-playoffs have been a beat down most years, because all the elite talent is hoarded by perennial playoff contenders. Expand, and we can expect talent to spread out a bit more, as players see more teams making regular appearance. It won't be overnight, but I think we'd start seeing upsets* and further spreading of talent
Downside is classes, but trimming a game off the regular season helps, and then there's only a few who make it deep in the playoffs anyway
@ Anonymous 6:28 p.m.
DeleteI guess I didn't explain it well enough, but you're right to an extent. You also have to consider how much that would kill other sports, universities, etc. I don't know what your top 12 or 18 or 24 would be, but any university that isn't in that "super-conference" or whatever is going to take a massive hit. If you take a top 12, is Michigan in it? If you take a top 24, is Virginia Tech in it? And what happens to those jobs when those programs get downsized? What about the universities themselves if some of that money disappears? What about the other athletics programs?
I don't think places like Old Dominion and FIU and North Texas would take a massive hit. It's the places like Pitt, Virginia, Utah State, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, etc.
The championship game will be interesting: (a) Will the Georgia we saw beat Michigan show up against Alabama, who looked good but not world-class against Cincinnati? (b) Which Alabama will show up, the one that beat Georgia badly a month ago, or the Alabama that barely got by Auburn? And, (c) Will the ratings for the Georgia / Alabama game show the rest of the country tuning out an all-SEC championship?
ReplyDeleteEver since the inception of the playoffs in 2014, there's been a general consolidation of talent around a few schools. Clemson had an off year, and it'll be interesting to see if they can regain their seat at the table. Will Ohio State regain their role as one of the very few teams that can legitimately run with Alabama and Georgia? Or will the college game consolidate even further so it'll be Alabama/Georgia, and everyone else?
I know some argue that "these things run in cycles." But it's different now, and the cycles we've seen in the past may not repeat. NIL is changing everything. I am acquainted with an older man who was athletic director for a couple of major programs for years and years, and who is still very much connected into the whole college football scene. He says the athletic directors at various schools are telling him that the NIL thing is "out of control," that it's devolving into a "bidding war," and that the college game is very much at risk.
For what it's worth, I think Alabama beats Georgia again. Alabama seems like a team that plays up to the opponent and the moment.
"He says the athletic directors at various schools are telling him that the NIL thing is "out of control," that it's devolving into a "bidding war," and that the college game is very much at risk."
DeleteNIL is a great idea in theory and a terrible idea in practice. The NFL is successful and there's parity because a) the salary cap and b) the draft. College football has neither. You can't do anything about the draft equivalent, but something needs to be figured out regarding the compensation.
I suspect even if they come up with a compensation model that's designed to be "fair" or "equitable," that will simply take us back to where we were before with no compensation: those schools that wish to skirt the rules will, and some schools will skirt the rules rather aggressively. In other words, set the "salary" at $X per season, and teams like Alabama are sliding $X * 100 under the table to get the best players.
Delete@ Anonymous 2:44 p.m.
DeleteI think the NCAA has given up enforcement of penalties, though. What NCAA sanctions or scandals have popped up since NIL was introduced? It's the equivalent of opening the floodgates and just stepping back to watch the destruction. If there were a more stringent, focused model, then at least the NCAA could enforce the rules.
No disagreement, either on there being a lack of codified rules, or that the NCAA has largely abdicated its role of enforcement. I doubt much good come from all this ... *unless* by some miracle we get the separation of schools into the semi-pro teams, and the student-athlete model.
DeleteThe logic that Michigan would thrive with paying players never made sense to me. OSU and Michigan would be where they are (top 10) perhaps but the passion and ubiquity of college football down south is on another level. When you start talking about Texas A&M, Texas, FSU, Florida -- these are BIG schools with fanbases way beyond alumni. Michigan doesn't actually have many advantages over big state schools like PSU or Wisconsin. Add Alabama, Georgia, LSU and throw in some west coast schools, and you can count to 8 to 10 schools better off than Michigan REAL fast.
DeleteI think we're going to see continued restructuring in CFB and frankly it might be really good if we start viewing this more regionally. I'd like to see us go back to traditional matchups (like the Rose Bowl being B10/Pac12). Plus 1 if you need to after that. Lots of money there.
I think a 16 team playoff would make CFB substantially worse and further devalue the regular season (which just saw an SEC championship game that in hindsight is irrelevant). With 16 you'd see that with way more games including OSU/UM.
I think that should Michigan be invited to a bowl game they should refuse. They just keep get embarrassed year after year.
ReplyDeleteHarbaugh is 1-5, and Michigan is 3-12 in their last 15....so you're not wrong. Other than this playoff appearance, I stopped caring about bowl appearances long ago
DeleteI think that we were out athleted in this game, and I absolutely believe that there is a talent gap between the present big two and the little everybody else in college football.
ReplyDeleteI do think also that a maximized USC, Texas, LSU and of course OSU can elbow their way in should it become The Priority.
But I think there was another thing that happened in this game.
So ... a story.
It feels like a lifetime ago, two other dads and myself started putting together a soccer team for our then, 6 year old sons. One of the dads had had some success coaching soccer having come out of one of the few high school soccer programs in the State of Michigan back in his day. I can figure out how to do a game with a ball as long as I don't have to hit the damn thing. The third dad had some skills in organizing things.
ReplyDeleteThe soccer coach dad kept talking about "State Cup". I didn't even know what the damn thing was. Later on, there were times when I wished I had never heard of the thing.
What it is is a championship tournament for club soccer teams. It starts at U-13 and goes to U-17 then it opens up into an all ages division.
So, our little team got pretty good at soccer. We started with 5 a side, indoor. We hooked into a club we liked and as we progressed through the 6v6, 8v8 and then big field soccer.
The goal was established at age 6 ad never changed ... State Cup ... State Cup ... State Cup.
The tournament is for ages 13 and up. We didn't get out of our group at 13, made the round of 16 at 14, then the round of 8 at 15 and 16. There were two teams we just couldn't get past. The first, we had been playing since we were six, spent several stretches at No 1 in the nation. The other was a very deep team that sent 7 or 8 kids to D-1 programs.
Finally, at U-17 in our last year together we won the thing. We were delirious with joy.
Winning the State Cup, allows entrance into the National Championship Tournament. We didn't get out our region.
You want to think that we didn't get out because we ran into other national championship talent, and they just beat us, but we had been playing a national showcase schedule for two years and had been clubbing the top midwestern clubs like baby seals, especially as 17 year olds. We dismantled a college varsity team in an open Christmas tournament in a very chippy game with guys in their early 20s. We went to a national tournament in Vegas and pounded Texas and California teams, which are big time soccer hotbeds.
What really happened is that we accomplished the goal that had been held in our hearts for 12 long years and were satisfied. I say, rightfully satisfied, because State Champions was absolutely the only goal in our hearts for all those years.
I firmly believe that had we been able to break through at 16, we would have been miserable to deal with in the national tournament with a year to refocus, but to do that in two weeks, wan't happening.
So, some Harbaugh hating fool will say, "Yeah, Harbaugh failed to get his team ready to play." I say, "Bullshit!" It's harder than hell refilling your heart with the urgency you need to beat a team like Georgia after a 14 year quest is obtained. Especially when it's Georgia feeling the desperation that they have been living with for however long.
This has been a great season, and I agree with Harbaugh that it feels like the beginning. Everybody wanted the unimagined prize after a championship season, but that prize ain't gonna come without the hunger for it.
History is replete with it. The best example I can think of is the struggle The Bad Boys had to endure before they got it all. Boston was a wall. We even had em before we finally got em, but that &$%^#(& Larry Bird out of nowhere picks off an inbound pass in the last three seconds and that no good DJ goes straight to the rim for his layup at the buzzer and we had to go home and seethe for another year.
The great Michael Jordan spent years trying to get past the Pistons.
This has been a wonderful year. We now have new goals that couldn't even be imagined 60 days ago.
Life is good
I agree, and I appreciate the story. I think it's very difficult to go into the CFP for the first time and dominate. Expectations have to be raised in the off-season, and players need to feel the pain of losing in order to take that next step. It's no guarantee - Oregon never took the next step, for example - but I think it's necessary step.
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DeleteWe were outmatched in talent. They have their own Gabe Watson, Devin Bush, Jabrill Peppers, and the rest of the roster is guys like JLewis, Mo Hurst, etc. No weakspots on D, and it showed. I didn't have any gripes with Gattis playcalling, but did expect some of our guys to make plays. We had balls dropped, passes thrown short/wide, routes cut short, and OL getting deposited in Cade's lap. With UGa defense playing their best game of the year, we needed our guys to do the same ... we didn't have anyone come close (though I did love Haskins effort on a few carries)
ReplyDeleteOn D I was frustrated. UGa has given up a sack or two against half their schedule, and I truly expected MacDonald to have the boys ready. Instead, Stetson Bennet looked like an All-American candidate, getting the ball off quickly, with plenty of options to choose from. Gray & the linebackers looked lost, almost 2020-like. Yet another Cook had a big Orange Bowl night against us ...
It was a beatdown. Still, this team is different. There were no heads down, no sulking, no giving up. The sideline supported the team til the end, and the boys on the field went down swinging. That's promising for the future, especially watching ohio's defense getting abused again today. If Harbaugh has successfully changed the culture in Ann Arbor, we will be back
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ReplyDeleteWho blamed Baldwin?
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DeleteI didn't say anything about that play being Baldwin's fault. I've said something similar several times this year. Baldwin doesn't have great football/receiving instincts. He is a tall, fast athlete, but he is not a good receiver at this point.
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DeleteNot a wise decision by Cade. We needed a TD, and he tried to make a play. Good initiative, bad gesture
DeleteThis does not absolve Baldwin though. He stopped playing. Agree on instincts, and there's video out there of him slapping his helmet after the play; I doubt this is the first time he's heard feedback along this line
I am one of the few who liked the BCS. In BCS era you have more spread of national champions and whomever won BCS was usually best team in CFB. Going back even further success could be defined as winning your rivalry game, your conference or your bowl game. Now success is defined as making playoffs, which is unrealistic for almost all teams. Now we have a system with Bama, one other SEC school and perhaps 1 or 2 others with all the talent, then a chasm between that group and rest of CF. This is unsustainable. Now we have yet another SEC rematch. I think CF is increasingly becoming a charade. You now have semiprofessional teams and college football teams. Not sure what solution is but this is destroying the sport. I also think 16 team playoff is unrealistic as these "college student-athletes" cannot possibly play that many games.
ReplyDeleteThe problem I had with the BCS is that picking 1&2 before the playoffs was always controversial. Allowing for traditional Bowl matchups first allows for a more clear selection while maintaining tradition (plus-1)
Delete16 team playoff would be a lot for the final 4. As we all agree, very few make it that far anyway
The playoff system is what is ruining college football. The BCS system started that ball rolling. They should have left it what it was: conferences sent teams to bowl games, and then we all had a grand old time arguing about who was champion.
DeleteI've read in various places the call for a 6-, 8-, or 16-team playoff system as the cure for the consolidation of talent to a few teams. I doubt that would help. They'll probably end up doing it, then shake their heads wondering why the same four to eight teams keep winning the championship.
What once was, shall never be again.
I totally agree. I like the pre-BCS system best. To me a good compromise if traditional bowl season + 1, where top two ranked teams after bowl season play NC
DeletePlus-1 is without a doubt my preference, but there's too much money involved to ever go back
DeleteI don't think 16 team playoff is a magical solution, but a desperate attempt to salvage December & January. Get 12-16 teams in, and between 20-30 have a shot. Rather than 2 being elite, we could have a rotation again, with 4-6 having a chance. That's what we had pre-BCS
Elite teams show up in the current playoff system with their best performance, overwhelming less talented ND, Washington, sparty, Cincinnati & UM. Can they do that during an extended playoff run? I think the very nature of competition would lead to upsets, helping spread the success out a bit
But, as you say Anon, we'll probably never get back to the tradition that captured our hearts & fandom
Agree. BCS plus 1 is better for college football and fans.
DeleteWe've devolved into a world where majority of teams in the top 20 end the season feeling disappointed. This is bad. Doesn't work this way in college basketball but that's a sport where majority of people completely ignore regular season. That would be a travesty for college football which, despite it's issues, is more popular than ever. Contrast the excitement of CFB in September and the sleepy openings of CBB in Nov/Dec. You don't want to trade that for a slightly more exciting January.
For Michigan, and many others, it would be far better to make "get to the Rose Bowl" a season defining objective. Some sort of plus one after that is fine if we need to clean up some mess. This year we really didn't but most years it would be useful and entertaining, without leaving those teams that won their conference and won their bowl game feeling like they ended on a low note.
I agree with most of the overarching points. Great season! Talent matters! Coaches did well. That all said...
ReplyDeleteThe comments about ceiling and acting like Michigan didn't have a chance -- that's all true about Ohio State as well. They beat Alabama to win a national title. And we beat them in 2011 and 2021.
Talent stacks the deck in your favor but that's why you play the games.
Other teams complain about this stuff against Michigan yet we've managed to lose to inferior teams like App State, Toledo, and MSU.
I don't think this year's team was THAT different than 2016, 2018, 2019. Harbaugh has us firmly in the upper tier, just below the very elite. To get there is very very hard. To fall off from there is very very easy. It happened to OSU and Clemson this year but they still holding onto the edge that USC, FSU, LSU, Miami, and Florida have fallen off before.
Find and develop a GREAT talent like Hutch and you get an edge back. Stock as many Hills, Peppers, Garys, and DPJs as you can get. Even when these guys "disappoint" some their teams tend to be excellent. From there it's coaching, development, culture, etc which this team thrived at. And then you need...luck. No injuries to your QB, NFL DE, NFL LT, or pre Bowl loss of your Heisman DB and best receiver.
The deck is stacked for Michigan to be a top 25 team but not to be a top 2 team. Harbaugh has us in the upper end of that range. The notion that we are building to that is probably misguided (look at the recruiting rankings). That doesn't mean we can't pull out a magic season at some point but...it'll take everything coming together and elite QB play.
This team is not THAT different. Talent wise, one could argue it's a step back back. But intangibles matter, and the "it" factor has shifted. Cade has said it a couple times, but there were occasions - Friday night included - when this team refused to give up
DeleteThere's a special fight to Team142, and we need that to continue. We probably can't compete in talent with Bama, UGa, ohio, Clemson (or LSU). But if a special QB emerges (as Watson did at Clemson), we can break through
I think the 2016 team was better TBH. The big difference was that this year we got breaks. The biggest ones being health and getting OSU at home.
DeleteThe difference between Harbaugh being a guy people want a "fresh start" from and being coach of the year can be boiled down to OSU's defensive coaching being a train wreck this year. What Oregon, Michigan, and Utah were able to do won't happen again so easy next year IMO.
We absolutely CAN compete with the elite talent teams. It just might mean that out of 10 times playing them we get whooped 5, come close 3, and win 2. Grind every day to get those odds up to 3/4/3 instead of 5/3/2. In other words from where Michigan is at to where OSU is at.
It's not impossible, it's not easy, it's not likely. But I'll agree that this team did more off the field to get the program here than say 2019. Keep in mind though that most of the guys here in 2021 making a difference were also here in 2019.
Lank, I think 2016 team was Harbaugh's best too, but it is close with this one. I think 2016 had better defense. 2021 better offense.
DeleteThe 2016 team was a better overall defensive team. However, Michigan was better off at running back in 2021. Perhaps with better running backs, Michigan would have overcome the 14-13 loss to Iowa or the 30-27 loss to Ohio State to make the playoff. De'Veon Smith averaged 2.3 and 2.9 yards per carry in those two games.
DeleteLOL. Happy New Year Thunder. Never change.
DeleteThe QB was hurt against Iowa and OSU. That's what I mean about luck. That same RB carried the team to beat Indiana another time that the QB got hurt.
The 2016 RBs were 2 guys who played in the NFL backed up Higdon and your guy Ty Isaac.
The 2021 RBs were 2 guys who will probably played in the NFL backed up by somebody you don't even think is a good RB (yet was the best RB against Georgia...)
BTW HH averaged 3.3 ypc against Iowa and 2.5 ypc against Wisconsin. Normal variance for guys like Smith and Haskins when they come up against strong defenses.
@ Lank 4:50 p.m.
DeleteIf the QB was hurt, that's all the more reason to want a better RB to help shore up the deficit.
Hassan Haskins vs. Georgia: 4.3 YPC
Donovan Edwards vs. Georgia: 4.0 YPC
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DeleteI forgot that RBs aren't allowed to catch passes in the CFB playoff. If those were legal, Edwards would have had the best game.
DeleteOkay, let's use Lank logic here. Giles Jackson was a RB because he lined up in the backfield.
DeleteDonovan Edwards's big play came when he was lined up at WR.
By your logic, Donovan Edwards is a WR.
So this conversation can go one of two ways:
1. You can admit that Giles Jackson was a WR because he was listed as a WR, and we can agree that Donovan Edwards is a RB because he's listed as a RB.
2. We can pretend Giles Jackson is a RB and we can pretend that Donovan Edwards is a WR.
Again, try as you might, you can't have it both ways.
Receiving is part of a RBs job. Running is not part of WRs job. It is exceedingly rare to find a RB who sees meaningful snaps but does not catch passes. It is a norm for WRs to not get any carries. Yes, some WRs (e.g., Henning) get meaningful carries, and many WRs get a handful once a year - in the same way that some RBs might get throw the ball. It's a tiny percentage of snaps vs a basic expectation for the position.
DeleteJackson was both RB and WR. He lined up as the only RB sometimes and at WR other times. In the slot and outside. My argument was that he was more effective at RB than WR and he continues to be pretty ineffective at WR even at Washington.
Edwards by the above logic is also both RB and WR. There have been a few snaps where he is in the game along with another RB. If you are outside and there is another RB beside/behind the QB, you are playing WR.
Jackson saw most snaps at WR but plenty at RB. In fact, he was the 3rd RB in bowl game against Alabama behind Charbonnet and Haskins.
Edwards, in contrast, saw almost every one of his snaps at RB - even if he motioned out at times, like Corum does. The handful of snaps he saw as a true WR fell well besides snaps by 6, 7, 8 other guys on the team.
So, LOL, Lank says Jackson is not a WR is fake news/strawman.
Jackson is both. So yeah, I can have it both ways because that's reality. Just like it's reality that Denard Robinson played RB and QB, that Jabril Peppers played offense and defense, that Jordan Glasgow was a DB and a LB.
@Thunder
DeleteThe thing I think you tend to ignore is that the majority of snaps by RBs is doing something other than running with the ball. Ignoring that basic reality, which is exactly what obsessing about YPC does,* is a fundamental misevaluation of the position. Can you ignore the majority of snaps?
*Multitude of other issues with your continuous misinterpretation of YPC as definitive results too.
This is not to diminish the importance of running the ball. It's that the differentiation by backs is hard to come by when carrying the ball. See the NFL stats I posted last week. Differentiation by backs in the passing game is more prevalent. That's part of why you are seeing RBs getting smaller over time in the NFL level which then plays into why you are seeing more rotation at the RB position.
Your view of RBs is outdated. It's past expiration date. Like bad milk, the closer you examine the worse it stinks.
If it's not the best OL in the country I'd like to know who is. Maybe it's Alabama. IDK.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they did better against Georgia and maybe they didn't but what I saw as the difference was very different playcalling. I saw it by Georgia as well against Michigan. Quick hitting passes. There were probably a half dozen times that game that MacDonald called blitzes and those guys came flying through completely unblocked -- didn't matter one bit because the ball was out. Just one less guy in coverage I guess. That was Bama's recipe against Georgia too - neutralize that line, don't worry about trying to run, just a steady diet of quick drop read throw. It's what OSU can do - but didn't for some reason.
These are things that guys like Bennett and McNamara can thrive at. Especially if they can run enough to keep D honest.
I think our defense is going to take a huge step back next year. It's a rebuilding year on that side of the ball barring an impact transfer or several breakouts (Harrell, Colson, Smith). The onus will be on the offense to start looking a lot more like OSU's. Put your speed (Edwards, Corum, Wilson, Anthony) out there and hope McNamara/McCarthy ascend into the elite level where they are picking apart defenses routinely.
I don't know, but here's a PFF article from November that doesn't have Michigan in the top 10: https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-offensive-line-rankings-top-10-units-ahead-of-week-11-2021
DeleteI know a few games have been played since then and I don't feel like doing a ton of research, but that's at least a data point.
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DeleteMichigan still leads the country in tackles for loss allowed (34). They gave up 7 to Georgia. It was a rough night. Michigan started to get some chunk runs late in the game after the outcome was already decided.
DeleteI talk a good bit about luck and variance on this board...
ReplyDeleteHere's a fun thought exercise. What if MSU had beaten Purdue. Totally out of Harbaugh's control but if everything else plays out the way it did...
MSU wins tie-breakers and gets Iowa in the Big Champ game.
Beat Iowa and MSU are 12-1 with a win over Michigan and Big Ten champs - a playoff lock.
So Alabama number 1, MSU in, and UM with competing for 2 spots again Cinci and Georgia. Both of which got seeded lower than UM with essentially the same resume (11-1, though without the win over Iowa).
I believe in this case the committee leaves out Georgia (whooped by Bama on a neutral field) instead of undefeated Cinci. (Bama, MSU, UM, Cinci).
You can play this out a bunch of other ways too (Oklahoma State beats Baylor and bumps Georgia, Georgia beats Bama so that we draw Cinci instead, etc.) where Michigan ends up in a better position where they may dodge the Georgiazilla and instead get a team more in line with them. Maybe still get worked by Bama instead but you never know...
Sorry, disagree: with Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC championship, it was guaranteed they would put two SEC teams into the playoffs. I think had Georgia beaten Alabama (leaving Alabama as a two-loss team), they would have discussed long and hard how to get Alabama in despite those two losses.
DeleteEvery aspect in life requires a bit of luck, including our spouses/GF, kids, career arc. Sports is no different: every team experiences an amount of good/bad luck. But that's not the main ingredient to success. Without the grit & grind, and without seizing opportunity, you're still stuck among the pack. The great accomplishments in history required a bit of luck, but so did the great disappointments. All other ingredients weigh heavier on the result
Delete"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."
@JE
DeleteNobody thinks it's the main ingredient. NOOOoooooBODY. Probably a bigger factor than the magic mojo that you claim changed in a few months of the 2021 offseason.
The "main ingredient" in the case of Michigan football is having a great coach -- and we saw that turnaround from 2014 to 2015. The mojo interpretations after 2017, 2019, and 2020 were just as wrong as the mojo interpretations are now.
What I'm saying is that Harbaugh put this program BACK in a position to succeed, where a few good breaks (aka luck) can swing things to where we are successful by Michigan standards... and a few bad ones can have people calling for one of the best coaches in America to get fired so we can "take a chance" with some 500 scraper from the Big 12.
Harbaugh is doing all the things you talk about to succeed but he was doing them 4 years ago too. Some of the other stuff - like what is happening at OSU and MSU is out of his control.
@Anon
I disagree. Few want to see an SEC rematch, even many SEC people, and they were looking for an excuse to bump Georgia out. Nobody else stepped up with a deserving resume. But we'll never know.
Put another way,
DeleteHarbaugh is the difference between averaging 6 or 7 wins a year and 9 or 10 wins a year. But the difference between a 7 win year and a 10 win year is often up to stuff that is entirely out of this control.
For baseball fans this is pretty obvious. A batter can got 3 for 4 one day and 0 for 4 the next day and you can either say he had a goods night rest and ate well and had a clear mind or you can say the ball found a way to land in good spots (i.e., luck). But since it just happens over and over 1000s of times you can be pretty sure these guys aren't changing up their eating or sleeping patterns all the time and this stuff just varies based on certain probabilities. Talent matters, there's good players who will bat 320 and bad players who will bat 220, but if you think you're going to guess who will go 3 for 4 on a given day and who will go 0 for 4 you are going to be wrong most of the time.
But hey you can blame it on mojo/juju/intangibles if you want.
"Few want to see an SEC rematch"
DeleteExcept the SEC, ESPN/ABC, and the playoff committee. And when it comes to seeding the playoff, that's what matters.
Luck is not the main ingredient to success, nor is it close
DeleteHarbaugh is one of many critical ingredients to the season's success. Most importantly though, were his decisions to overhaul/reset the program, which he has spoken on in great detail
Read Roanman's post above. Listen to Saban (or Harbaugh). Read a bio or autobiography on a leader or public servant. Luck may be mentioned as an aside, but on a very minor note
I can't expect you to comprehend, as agency & accountability are probably unfamiliar concepts. So, pretend I'm talking about "mojo," or whatever you're spewing in 2022
*the guy who likes to name call "troll" and other insults starts the new year with visiting old threads to rekindle debates untouched over the last few days, and to start anew with more exaggeration & misleading crap. Never change Lank
@JE
DeleteYour response to my statement: Nobody thinks lucks's the main ingredient.
is: "Luck is not the main ingredient to success, nor is it close"
And then back to insults. Speaking of never changing.
Insult? I made no insult
DeleteHappy new year though
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ReplyDelete