HIGH SCHOOL
Hill came to Michigan in the class of 2019 out of Tulsa (OK) Booker T. Washington. He was a 247 Composite 5-star, the #1 safety, and #14 overall. He committed to Michigan in September 2019, flipped to Alabama in early December 2019, and then flipped back on National Signing Day. I gave him a TTB Rating of 100 (LINK) and gave the following quote:
Things I dislike about Hill: *crickets*
COLLEGE
Hill started three games as a freshman and made 36 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, and 4 pass breakups; he also caught a pass on a fake punt to gain a first down against Army. I thought that would be foreshadowing for him being a two-way player or a returner at some point in his career, but that didn't happen. He became a full-time starter in 2020 when he made 46 tackles, 1 interception, and 5 pass breakups. We finally saw him spend a full, real season as a starter in 2021, when he was somewhat unleashed as a safety/slot corner who made 69 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 11 pass breakups. For his efforts he was named a 1st Team All-Big Ten player by the conference's coaches.
Hit the jump for more.
CAREER STATS
151 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 4 interceptions (returned for 3 yards), 3 fumble recoveries, 16 pass breakups
1 reception for 25 yards
AWARDS
1st Team All-Big Ten (Coaches, 2021)
2nd Team All-Big Ten (Media, 2021)
SUMMARY
Hill was a tantalizing prospect coming out of high school, and he remains one to this day. He reportedly ran a 40 in the 4.3 range in high school, and he was a ball hawk who also had promise as a wide receiver. When he came to Michigan, I pegged him as an immediate starter; and while that wasn't the case, he did play quite a bit and performed well for a freshman. There was consistent talk about him potentially moving to cornerback, a position that has lacked top-end talent for the past couple seasons, but Hill supposedly did not want to play corner because he thought (or was told) that his future was at safety in the NFL. Whatever the reason, he played quite a bit in the slot and acquitted himself quite well. His speed, change-of-direction, and instincts helped him in man coverage, and he was never afraid to come up and tackle aggressively. In my time watching Michigan, I think he was one of the top few open-field tacklers. While I did expect him to spend more time playing a deep center field position because of his speed and instincts, he had a very good career in a Michigan uniform. Selfishly, I hoped he would return for a fourth year in 2022, but I knew that was unlikely.
I WILL REMEMBER HIM FOR . . .
. . . his fake punt reception in 2019 from Mike Barrett. Barrett - a converted high school quarterback - took a snap as an upback against Army, turned, and threw to an uncovered Hill, who made a guy miss before running 25 yards for a big first down conversion in a game that turned out to be tighter than expected.
PROJECTION
Hill measured in at 6'0" and 191 lbs. at the NFL Combine. He ran a 4.38 forty with a 33.5" vertical and a 10'1" broad jump. He also had a 6.57 three-cone drill and a 4.06 twenty-yard shuttle. He is almost universally projected as a first round draft pick, which I think makes sense. I don't see him as an outside corner in the NFL, but he can play either safety position and the nickel spot. He generally seems to be battling to be the first safety taken off the board on Thursday night, along with Notre Dame's Kyle Hamilton. My guess is that Hill will be taken in the middle of the first round.
Next Hill up. Dax, Delano, and Lavert have helped the Michigan secondary thrive for years. Nikhai Hill-Green will need to keep the legacy alive.
ReplyDeleteI just read some guy that has contact with draft people on each NFL team. He said they are saying this about Daxton Hill:
ReplyDelete"It doesn’t look like Hill gets out of the first round as teams feel he can play everywhere — free safety, in the box, or over the slot receiver."
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2022-nfl-draft-news-and-rumors-saints-seahawks-and-steelers-to-all-take-first-round-qbs/
He also said:
Delete"And while some players are rising, Kyle Hamilton continues to fall. Many in the league tell me they think Hamilton ends up somewhere between picks 15 to 20. That’s still later than I expected and is a precipitous drop for a prospect still graded by some as the top player in this draft."
Dropping to 15 to 20 doesn't sound too shabby.
Probably dumb of me to say this, trust the experts and all that, but I don't see why NFL people are enamored by Hamilton. Very good college player but I'd rather have Hill I think in the NFL.
DeleteLoved Dax. Dude was the closest we'll get to peppers when it comes to tackling, and only the most precise dimes by a QB would beat him in coverage
ReplyDeleteAgree with the OP. If I had one regret it is that we never saw Dax on offense or as a returner, but the guys there did well enough to keep our valuable Safety away from unwarranted risk
I applaud the appreciation of "very good career in a Michigan uniform". For a guy with 5-stars and a TTB 100 ranking I almost expected a "disappointment" reaction from some people on here. After just 3 years, shortened by COVID at that, no All American honors, not even a consensus first team all conference I was wondering if there would be any negativity towards Dax like there was with Peppers, Gary, and a few other blue chippers. Nope!
ReplyDeleteThat probably has a lot to do with 2021 being such a massive and unexpected success. Contributing I think is the growing body of evidence that a top 100 recruit is probably gone in 3 years unless they flop.
Dax was awesome. You can't have enough do-everything type of players like him in the modern game. I'll be rooting for him in the NFL. Some buzz that there are character questions about him which I found pretty surprising. I bet it's smoke to throw would-be suitors off the trail. While most projections seem to have Dax on the fringe of round 1 or early R2 I'm with Thunder and think he ends up in the middle of R1.
When you get the #1 cornerback in the country, you expect more than 1 career interception. When you get the #1 defensive tackle in the country - and he turns out to be so athletic that he plays DE in college and OLB in the NFL - you expect more than a career high of 5.5 sacks. (Gary had 9.5 sacks in 16 games this past NFL season, and he had 9.5 sacks in 34 career games at Michigan.)
ReplyDeleteDax Hill wasn't quite on the same level as a recruit (highly sought after, yes, but not #1 player in the country level) and still outperformed Peppers in some categories (tackles, interceptions, pass breakups).
It also doesn't hurt that Hill actually played in the postseason, something Peppers never did.
The above was written by yours truly in a hurry.
DeleteAnyway, my point was that I think it has less to do with winning than on-field performance. Truth be told, Peppers wasn't that outstanding of a player until he got moved to Viper under Don Brown. He had 45 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 0 turnovers in 2015.
Career INTs for the top safeties in Peppers's 2014 class:
Quin Blanding (UVA): 10
Jamal Adams (LSU): 5
Ed Paris (LSU): 1 (played in 19 games for his career)
Hootie Jones (Alabama): 2
Todd Kelly, Jr. (TENN): 8
Erick Smith (OSU): 1
Dylan Summer-Gardner (BSU): 1
C.J. Hampton (Ole Miss): 0
You have to get down to the #8 ranked safety in the country before you get to someone with fewer career interceptions than Peppers - and Peppers's lone interception came in his final college game, against Ohio State.
In the Big Ten alone, Rashan Gary was very low with 1 sack, then tied for #14, and then tied for #27 in sacks.
It's similar to the De'Veon Smith situation in that when you compare them to their peers - Big Ten players - they didn't stand out on the field.
This doesn't mean they're bad players. It means they didn't produce at the level one expects from someone with their ranking.
Peppers was a Heisman finalist. Consensus All American. Jim Thorpe Award nominee. His sophomore year he was all conference consensus first team and all american second team.
DeleteHill wasn't even consensus first team all conference in his third year, let alone his first or second.
If you're arguing Hill had a better career I have to disagree. I think you might be letting the rare big play stats override overall performance and accolades.
That was me above.
DeleteRashan Gary has acquitted himself quite well in the NFL. I imagine you see this as improvement on his part and not disproving your take that his production was a disappointment.
For what it's worth - his college pressure rate was on par with Hutchinson and better than Paye. None of them were as good as Charlton, which I suspect is a result of having the benefit of not playing many snaps till he was a senior.
https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1519427034312814598
Rule of thumb - any stat that is in single digits for a season probably doesn't tell you much. INTs, Forced Fumbles, defensive TDs, are too random to be all that meaningful for a year. Sacks, TDs are kind of borderline too. At the very least they should be considered against some every down considerations (PFF grades, UFRs, rate stats, tackles, etc.) Especially for somebody we - as Michigan fans - watched so closely and saw so many just-misses on sacks.
https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/status/1519427034312814598
"In the Big Ten alone, Rashan Gary was very low with 1 sack, then tied for #14, and then tied for #27 in sacks."
DeleteIn the Big Ten Alone, Aiden Hutchinson was very low with 0 sacks, then tied for #23, and then again zero sacks.
Just goes to show you how great of an indicator this kind of assessment is. Hutch went on to a dominant 4th year, while Gary sacrificed college glory to get paid millions to practice in Green Bay. But we watched the games in those freshman, sophomore, and junior years and we know Gary was a great player and Hutchinson was a great player even if they weren't putting up huge stats they were excellent players.
To be fair - PFF also posted some critical takes on Gary in college. Though that was in the context of considering him as a first rounder, not as a college disappointment. Those criticisms have been soundly disproven given his play in the NFL.
DeleteI really can't address everything brought up in these various comments, but I think recruiting ranking is relevant to the level of expectation/disappointment. Rashan Gary was the #1 recruit in the country and was never at any point considered to be the best player in college football. Even when it came to the NFL, it took him until his third season to really make an impact.
DeletePeppers was only a Heisman finalist because he contributed on offense/special teams. I'm not saying that's irrelevant to football/college football. However, what I am saying is that if you're getting the #1 safety/cornerback, you're going to be disappointed if he only makes 1 interception. I would say that for any #1 CB/S that goes to any school, and I'll even throw out that I will be disappointed if Will Johnson ends his career with 0 or 1 interception. I expect more.
I was critical of Hutchinson in previous years, and even some draft people have pointed out that it took him changing positions and becoming a stand-up DE/OLB until he really stood out. He's not as good with his hand in the dirt as he is standing up and coming off the edge. He would not have been in the conversation to be the #1 pick based on how he played as a freshman/sophomore/junior.
I agree that recruiting ranking plays a part. But Hill was the #14 recruit in the country and not an all american. Peppers was the #3 and finished 5th in the Heisman AND was an all american on defense, twice. So I don't think this really explains the difference.
DeleteI guess we just have to disagree but I don't know how any Michigan fan can be disappointed by Jabrill Peppers who spent one year being hurt and 2 years being an all american defensive player, not to mention all the offense special teams stuff that contributed to being a Heisman finalist.
-LANK
And I've said it before but I'll say it again - the number 1 recruit in the country is almost never the number 1 player in the country. Expecting that is unreasonable and flies in the face of evidence and logic.
DeleteRecruiting rankings are too variable to have totally different expectations for the #1 recruit vs the #15 recruit vs the #35 recruit. There's just not that level of precision. #1 vs #300 -- yes.
You've published several posts that illustrate the range of outcomes for various recruiting profiles. Great content btw. Those make clear that if you look at the number X recruit in the country there is going to be a range of outcomes. Expectations should be set at the mean, median, or mode - not the max.
I just lost the comment, and I'm not going to go back for all the stats, but Peppers finished with literally the FEWEST interceptions of any #1 cornerback recruit in the history of recruiting rankings. You say interceptions are kind of random and don't count or whatever, but then why does literally every other player - from Paul Oliver up through Vernon Hargreaves III - have better interception numbers?
ReplyDeleteI am perfectly justified in being disappointed when not only was Peppers below average in creating turnovers in the passing game, but he was literally the worst one in the sample (in that category). Again, that doesn't mean he was a bad player - he wasn't - but turnovers can be game-changing, momentum-swinging plays, and he provided none of those (his only INT came in a loss to OSU).
Interceptions are important and relevant but they happen about 1% of the time. Again we're talking about a two-time all american DB. Who was often asked to play close to the line. To get hung up on that one number, with the mountain of evidence to counter it, is missing the point. You're disagreeing with media, coaches, and most fans who say this guy was great in college by calling him disappointing in college. In truth, it does not get much better.
DeleteMoreover, interceptions are like rushing touchdowns - a team stat attributed to an individual. Sometimes they are great individual plays, but a majority of interceptions are due to the QB throwing to the wrong spot, or being reckless because he's under duress. So I have to disagree with you when you say Peppers was below average in creating turnovers. When you erase flat passes from the playbook and force QBs to play scared because you might be coming on a bridge - you're contributing to your team defense ability to generate turnovers.
"So I have to disagree with you when you say Peppers was below average in creating turnovers."
DeleteYou can't just change the meaning of a word to suit your argument.
1 interception from the #1 CB. Worst number in the modern recruiting era. That's a fact, and I'm not twisting words to get there.
Creating turnovers and catching interceptions are not the same thing. False equivalence.
Delete