Name: Quinten Johnson
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Washington (DC) St. John's
Position: Safety
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #14
Last year: I ranked Johnson #57 and said he would be a backup safety and special teamer (LINK). He made 3 tackles.
TTB Rating: 79
Johnson had a tough road to hoe for playing time in 2021. Behind starters Daxton Hill and Brad Hawkins, he was clawing for playing time with the likes of R.J. Moten, Makari Paige, and others. Eventually, true freshman Rod Moore moved into the starting lineup, too, and Johnson was still mostly playing special teams.
The year 2022 provides a big opportunity. Gone are Hill and Hawkins, meaning another safety or two need to step into starting roles. I feel very confident that Johnson will not be a starter, but if those new starters are Moore and Moten - which I expect - then Johnson could be alongside Paige to be the next guy in. He will need to fend off a good group of incoming freshman defensive backs, as well as walk-on Caden Kolesar. I think Johnson's biggest contributions will continue to be on special teams, and if Johnson intends to earn a starting role, he may need to finish his career elsewhere in 2023 and/or 2024.
Prediction: Backup safety, special teamer
I remember how bad some Michigan commenters wanted him when he was getting recruited.
ReplyDeleteI had high hopes for Johnson. I liked his recruiting profile and he seemed like he might be the proverbial "hybrid" DB who could cover but also tackle in space and be good enough in the box to be an asset against the run game too. Something like Rod Moore or Jordan Glasgow - or a less freaky version of people like Peppers, Hudson, and Hill.
ReplyDeleteObviously it hasn't happened for him and as a senior it's not likely to. Perhaps he can provide a veteran presence and useful contributions until the freshman DBs are more ready. I personally would rank guys like Sabb and Berry above Johnson but they are freshman. Their "floor" is zero, while Johnson will likely at least build on special teams contributions. At this point I just don't see him out there against PSU, MSU, OSU offenses but he's a useful contributor anyway in a thin and inexperienced secondary.
Thunder makes a good point in Johnson's favor - opportunities were limited with Hill, Hawkins, and Gray all taking up a lot of snaps in the secondary last year. However, they weren't so limited in 2020 when Paige saw a lot of playing time. And in 2021 Moten and Moore surged past Johnson without any mention. So it feels less like Johnson is being held back by vets (like say Winovich, Gary, and Hurst were on the '16 DL) are more that he's simply not a starting-caliber player at Michigan.
But you never know. Johnson had a serious knee injury in 2019 and could still have been rounding into form into 2021 when opportunities were limited. Development isn't linear. Maybe Johnson will leverage his experience and rise to the occasion. That would be nice because Michigan really needs multiple DBs beyond the top 4 returners (Turner, Green, Moore, Moten) to be very good players by November. Michigan used 7 DBs for meaningful snaps against OSU and that seems like a reasonable target for quality DBs. I don't know who the other 3 are (Will Johnson, Paige, and McBurrows probably are leading contenders but each come with a lot of questions.) and injuries may make this number more like 4 or 5.
I consider the 2020 season a wash. He had a bad knee injury in 2019. I think 2021 is more informative than 2020, and he played a ton of special teams in 2021. You don't often see true freshmen being special teams stalwarts, which is why Johnson is here over Berry/Sabb.
DeleteYeah good point. I like the optimism for Johnson, and I'm buying into your logic to a degree. I just go back to one key issue that I think is a lot bigger than chipping in on special teams -- Who is going to be covering OSU's WRs?
DeleteLast year that included Moten, Moore, Green, and Turner but also a bunch of guys who are gone (Hill, Hawkins, Gray). Who takes their CRITICAL snaps?
The 5 DB starters all saw more than 70 snaps against OSU. That's more than any of the LBs and DL, save one. Hutch was the one guy in the front 6 who saw over 70 snaps. Even Ojabo and Colson were less than that.
Furthermore, the 6th DB (Moten) saw more snaps than any other backups besides Barrett (hybrid LB), Morris (flex DL), and Jeter (3rd DT). These guys were seeing around 20-30 snaps each.
It's not quite this simple but if OSU performance make or break a season - shouldn't a 6th DB be about as important as a 3rd LB, 3rd DT, 3rd DE?
Green (7th DB) didn't play a ton against OSU but he was in on some meaningful downs and played a big role during the year. I'd put that somewhere around a 4th LB, 4th DT, and 4th DE.
So anyway, I'm real interested in who is going to be in on all those critical downs in 2022. Which DB will be getting all these DB after the starters? Who will be playing a bigger role against OSU than any backup LB or DL as the 5th DB?
I don't know if freshman are the answer but I think there's a decent chance. If I'd have to bet on a freshman getting 20+ snaps against OSU I'd say it's about an 80% chance. Take Will Johnson as a given, I would still say it's about 40-50% if there's a second freshman out there.
To me that's enough to be putting some of these wildcards in the 50s or maybe even the 40s. Even if they might end up red-shirted instead.
A lot of guys can chip in on special teams (Q Johnson, Sainristil, Kolesar) but not a lot of guys can cover OSU receivers. Can McBurrows? Can Paige? Can Sainristil? TBD