Name: Jake Moody
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Northville (MI) Northville
Position: Kicker
Class: Fifth year senior
Jersey number: #13
Last year: I ranked Moody #7 and said he would be the starting kickoff specialist and placekicker (LINK). He was the kickoff specialist and made 23/25 field goals and 56/56 extra points.
TTB Rating: N/A
Moody went from being a question mark in 2020 - when he made just 1/4 field goals - to a consensus All-American in 2021. It's probably not a coincidence that fellow kicker Quinn Nordin had gone to the NFL after the 2020 season. It seemed like the pressure of Nordin lurking over his shoulder had been a bit too ominous for him to overcome. Once Nordin was gone, Moody turned into a star. He won the Lou Groza Award as the top kicker in the country and was Big Ten Kicker of the Year.
Moody should be very good again in 2022. Whether he repeats as a winner of all those awards or not, you never know. Other guys could have great seasons, too. If he makes 23/25 field goals and another guy makes 24/25, hats off to the other guy. But it's not often you get a consensus All-American returning despite being draft eligible. So why is Moody at #10? I can put a kicker in the top ten - or even at #7 like I did last year - but it's tough to rank a guy all the way at the top who doesn't play full-time on offense or defense.
Prediction: Starting kickoff specialist and placekicker
Hooray for special teams!
ReplyDeleteVery good player. I think even 10 is kind of high for a kicker but better than 7, even a Groza winner. Moody's strength is reliability. To get to a higher rank he'd really have to have exceptional distance and he's just 1-3 from 50+ in his career with a long of 52.
ReplyDeleteI have to pipe in to disagree with the Nordin narrative though. In my opinion that was not that much of a factor and the 2020 wobble is not all that relevant. I don't believe Moody was ever spooked and I don't believe he was ever a question mark. Moody was consistent over his career - for both short kicks and in long kicks.
Moody has made every short kick within 30 yards for his career. EVERY one! Every XP and every FG under 30 yards. The dude is as consistent as you get from short yardage. This was true in 2020 as well when he was 9-9 in XPs.
The big difference in 2020 was that he attempted zero FGs from <30. Moody didn't get a chance to do what he was best at. There was no stat padding that year because there were so few FGs (because Michigan kept losing and they had 2 kickers). Moody didn't become unreliable he just wasn't really used as much because it was a short season and the team was down a lot. That wasn't Nordin's fault - Michigan attempted just 1 FG <30 yards that year. In 2018, 2019, and 2021 it was 6.
Note that in general 2020 was also a wonky situation for Nordin - and he got an NFL shot anyway. After hitting 75% of his FGs the 3 previous years he went 2-5. A career low in attempts and his season long of 46 after the 3 previous seasons of 50, 55, and 57. So either something was in the air to make all our kickers miss (possible! it was a pandemic) - or the stats look bad because it was a small sample (i.e, high variance) that was biased towards long kicks that inherently hit at a lower rate.
Moody was also consistent on long kicks over all 4 years. Moody from 40+ by season 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, 4-6. No much difference there, except volume (with Nordin gone, Moody got to kick more long ones in 2021). 3-6 in 3 years combined and 4-6 in the 4th year.
So the above data show us that Moody displayed consistency over his career. The last part of the equation is the 30-39 yard field goals. Moody was 6-6 in 2018, 2-4 in 2019, 0-2 in 2020, and 13-13 in 2021. Nordin was around for all 3 of the first years including 2018, so it's hard to say that he spooked Moody into missing in 2020. That's a lot to read into 2 missed kicks from medium distance.
Moody's 2020 season amounts to one game - a night game in Minnesota where weird stuff happened. Moody missed 3 FGs that day but hit all 7 XPs. Joe Milton meanwhile had a great day. Draw big conclusions about that game at your own peril.
Short version -- 2020 was too short and weird to read much into. Moody was probably the same guy that he has been all his career. Reliable from short distance wonky from longer distance. Nordin was the opposite.
TL;DR you say? Yes I know.
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