That was closer than it should have been. Maryland has scared me for years, because they've had offensive playmakers. This goes back to the days of NFL veteran receiver D.J. Moore, but also a variety of running backs like Ty Johnson and Anthony McFarland, Jr. Now the Terps have a stable of good receivers and a couple solid running backs in speedster Roman Hemby and 235 lb. Antwain Littleton II, who I learned during the game had been a 295 lb. recruit. But the defense is catching up to the offense with size and speed in the secondary. They're turning into a formidable opponent.
Hit the jump for more.
You asked for J.J. McCarthy, and this is what you got. There's absolutely no question that McCarthy outplayed Cade McNamara to start the season, but people have been beating the drum for McCarthy for a long time. Every player comes with warts - Denard Robinson couldn't throw effectively against good defenses, Tom Brady and John Navarre couldn't run, Chad Henne only threw fastballs, etc. - but McCarthy is young and fairly inexperienced. He has all the physical traits you want (good size, strong arm, speed) and some of the mental traits, but what he lacks is an internal clock and consistency. He sat in the pocket way too long several times, and he runs around in circles way too often trying to make something happen. That's going to lead to turnovers, sacks, and maybe even injury. He also tried to cut back in when he was running on the sideline and could have taken a big, dangerous shot.
That being said, the announcers were a little bit weird. I don't really buy into the whole media bias thing, or "the announcers are rooting for the other team!" stuff. Does it happen? Sometimes, I'm sure. Announcers are human. But most of them are trying to be fair. The dialogue was odd, though. Which QB performance would you rather have?
- 20/30, 207 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 4 carries for 20 yards
- 18/26, 220 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 carries for 5 yards
The guy who threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions was Taulia Tagovailoa. If you watched the broadcast, he should be in the NFL right now pushing for a starting spot. The guy who completed a higher percentage of his passes and didn't turn the ball over is the guy with all the question marks, J.J. McCarthy.
All running backs are good as long as they're named Blake Corum. With Donovan Edwards still nursing a leg injury, Blake Corum was the only functional running back available. And my oh my did he . . . function. He had 30 carries for 243 yards (#7 all-time at Michigan) and 2 touchdowns. I believe five of his carries went for 20+ yards. Freshman C.J. Stokes got in the game for one play, ran for -2 yards, fumbled, and never saw the field again. Redshirt freshman Tavi Dunlap stayed glued to the sideline. Walk-on Isaiah Gash ran for 2 yards on 3rd-and-4. It felt a lot like the game against Penn State in 2021 when Blake Corum wasn't available: it was ride-or-die with Hassan Haskins, who had 31 carries for 156 yards (Donovan Edwards ran 2 times for 2 yards).
Michigan has no pass rushers. That may be hyperbole, but Michigan has no one who's in danger of winning right off the snap. We were spoiled by Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, who could provide instant pressure. Michigan has also had Chase Winovich, Josh Uche, or Viper-type guys (Jabrill Peppers, Khaleke Hudson) who could flash into the backfield. Michigan's sack leaders are nickel corner Mike Sainristil and 292 lb. Mike Morris. Through four games last year, Hutchinson (5.5 sacks) and Ojabo (1.0) had combined for 6.5 sacks. So I guess there's still time for an Ojabo to appear, but I don't think it's coming from any of the current starters. Sainristil can't blitz all the time, and Morris isn't going to get any quicker as the season goes along. Maybe Derrick Moore or Eyabi Okie or Braiden McGregor can develop, but on Saturday, Michigan was rushing four and counting on bull rushes to get there.
The offensive play calling was suspect. The play calling obviously wasn't terrible, considering McCarthy was 18/26 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. And considering Blake Corum had 243 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Most teams would be happy with 463 total yards. Michigan had just 40 more yards against Maryland in 2021 but managed to score 25 more points. Joel Klatt made a huge deal of it on the broadcast, but I was already questioning it when Michigan kept lining up under center and running counter with Blake Corum. The offensive coordinator(s) also faked jet sweep a couple times - without actually running jet sweep - and the defense didn't bite, so a jet sweep pass from Ronnie Bell didn't work at all. They did mix in some play action late in the game from under center, so maybe that's what they were setting up. But I don't think they had a great game plan to keep Maryland guessing. (Before you start yearning for Josh Gattis to come back, his new team at Miami scored 9 points against Texas A&M and then they just got outscored by Middle Tennessee while averaging 4.12 yards per play. To provide some context, 4.12 yards per play for the season would rank #127 in the nation.)
A win is a win. Maryland is an improved football team with some good playmakers. Overall, Michigan did a good job of tamping down some of the big plays downfield and keeping Roman Hemby from breaking out. I expected at least one big run from Hemby, but his longest was 6 yards. The Wolverines are good for at least one close win every year against a team they should beat handily, but that's the case with every team. Alabama had four one-score victories in 2021 against teams that finished unranked (LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn). And Michigan's not on Alabama's level. But McCarthy, the play calling, and the pass rush are all going to have to improve if Michigan wants to beat Ohio State.
Yesterday was one of those days across the football landscape.
ReplyDeleteyesterday WAS one of days!
DeleteKudos to Corum, a true difference maker
Pass rush is a concern, but I thought the DL got bullied. When Maryland got their first TD, our guys just stood up
Corum is special - going to miss him when he’s off to the NFL. This game was exhibit A for the “running backs matter in college” argument.
ReplyDeleteAgree: the idea that running backs are mostly interchangeable yardage producers is simply not true. All evidence suggests otherwise. Some RBs are simply better than others, all else equal.
DeleteWas it though? In the last 2 years Edwards, Haskins, Corum have all been unavailable at one point or another and the results are unaffected. Our RB play is always good.
DeleteCorum played very well but give Haskins and Edwards 30 touches and they'll produce too. That's what they got last year and the total was also 250 yards. Corum missed that game. Now Haskins is fine and Edwards missed a game. Seems pretty interchangeable to me.
DeleteHaskins has moved on, and Edwards wasn't available yesterday. Beyond Corum was Dunlap, Stokes, Franklin, and a handful of lesser-knowns. So, based on your theory, we could plug any of them in yesterday and get the same result?
DeleteIf Corum got hurt for the 3rd or 3rd/4th quarter, Michigan very well could have been screwed. Stokes, Gash, etc. were not going to produce much on Saturday, because the line did not play that well. Corum bounced a ton of stuff outside with his jump cuts and vision.
DeleteThey would have put Stokes back in.
DeleteThere's always some excuse about why RB could or should be a worry but it never is. People tried to make up a worry about short yardage carries and it turns out Corum is good. Shocker. People try to fret about a smaller back being able to handle 20+ carries. People try to tell me Donovan Edwards can't run inside and is really just a WR. It's always something.
DeleteCorum was good last year too - IMO the best back since Biakabatuka - but when he went down the train kept right on rolling. It's always this way. That's why I had no worries about Haskins leaving, for all the praise he got, or Higdon, or whoever else. I'm more worried about HIll Hutchinson hell even Ross seems like a bigger loss, and now I"m wondering about All and Keegan.
Speaking of that - the OL concerns are more valid. I suppose. Michigan hasn't played real defense yet but so far it looks a lot like last year where they lean to the run game when they need to. These cupcakes just don't tell us enough - Iowa will be informative, for better or worse.
I don't think we would have gotten 240 yards from Stokes if that's the question. If Corum was hurt Michigan would adapt. Stokes gets 100 against a bad D at least, QBs chip in another 30 to 50, and JJ throws more passes to make up most of the difference. 10-20 yards less? Yeah. 200 less? no. Someone else gets the TD. We're not quite as good but we still score 30 and win the game.
DeleteI don't know if that's true if say Mike Sainristil or Junior Colson or DJ Turner miss that game. I was a Sainristil skeptic but he was all over the field (made some errors too but more good than bad).
Corum played very well! Best back in a loooong time. I said he looked special 2 years ago. and I defended him on this blog multiple times last year. But Michigan would not have been "screwed" if he tweaked an ankle or whatever. Not against Maryland at least.
They blew away Maryland with McNamara last year.
ReplyDeleteThere's really people that want Gattis back?
Can I throw a theory out there? Maybe McCarthy isn't all he's cracked up to be, and the play book had to be downsized yesterday for him, and maybe coaches are turning an eye back to Cade McNamara? There didn't seem to be any play calling problems last year playing Maryland, or any team.
ReplyDeleteI hope there's no similar issues at Iowa next week. Because, when was the last time Michigan won at Kinnick? I want to believe all will be well, and M will coast to a win. But Iowa's defense score two TDs yesterday. But they won't do that to Michigan, right?
I mean, sure, maybe McCarthy isn't all he's cracked up to be. But his numbers so far are outstanding. We can't ignore the numbers. 18/26 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns is a good day. And about 4 of those incompletions were deep balls that he just threw a little too far, but he's hit those earlier in the year.
DeleteMichigan beat Maryland worse last year, but Maryland is better this season (and Michigan might be worse). Maryland was 5-5 and missing a couple guys last year. This year they had all their playmakers coming into the game - Jones, Demus, Jarrett, Hemby, Tagovailoa, Copeland, etc.
Michigan has lost the last 4 at Kinnick. The last win for Michigan at Kinnick was in 2005.
Well, something felt wrong about the offense yesterday. And maybe you're right, maybe they aren't as good as last year. I still think McNamara would have done better yesterday. He's the tortoise. The tortoise beats the hare. I trust him more. I was really thinking 13-0 this year with McNamara. I don't know where to gauge the team with McCarthy. Let's see what happens at Kinnick.
DeleteThose overthrows were a bit flat. JJ says his arm is back to pre-injury, so he just needs some work on getting air under it ... hit one more two, and it's a completely different game
DeleteNow that passrush ... Someone needs to step up
Stokes will be fine I think. He fumbled and Hart did the old school coaching thing, probably valid, and benched him.
ReplyDeleteWith most freshman that's what you worry about; fumbles and pass pro.
DeleteOdd time for the pass rush criticism. Morris had more sacks than ojabo and Hutchinson combined last year against Maryland and he put the hurt on. Maryland lt is supposed to be first round material. We don't have hutch obviously, but Michigan did better than last year when sacks came from gray and guy.
ReplyDeleteRight now Michigan is 24th in the nation in sacks, with 11 through four games, for an average of 2.75 per game. There are a bunch of teams right now clustered around 11 or 12 sacks through four games (PSU 11; Illinois 11; Iowa 12). Ohio State is at 9, Alabama 12, and interestingly Georgia has only 4. The national leader is Arkansas with 20.
DeleteSo, to your point, based on actual sacks, the pass rush is doing okay. A better stat would be one that tracks the rush causing the QB to hurry and a play being disrupted. A QB hurry that results in a ball thrown out of bounds is better than a QB hurry that results in a scramble for a 1st down. I know "QB hurries" are tracked, but I don't know if they're tracked to result seen.
Michigan has played a very, very soft schedule and got those sacks. Also, you can just watch the games and see that there isn't much when it comes to pressuring the QB other than blitzing Sainristil or taking advantage of terrible offensive linemen for weak teams.
DeleteAgree with both comments. I'm just saying the timing is odd since Michigan did better than last year when they had killer DEs. And Maryland is better this year... Not surprisingly the CSU performance was a mirage. 1 sack total vs Hawaii and uconn right? Maryland performance was better than expected, to me.
DeleteYeah, watching the game v the boxscore makes a difference. Little to no pressure, and guys unable to shed blocks
DeleteThat said, 2d Half adjustments were refreshing
Checking a box score and watching a game are complementary. Next up I'll explain burgers and fries... Strawman arguments from someone who isn't arguing. LOL
DeleteThere wasn't a ton of pressure but more sacks than last year vs Maryland and more than the last two games. It's weird timing when you're playing a vet OL with an NFL tackle.
No pressure got home last year vs Maryland (when the DTs and refs were blamed for a lack of sacks from DEs) and no pressure got home this year from Hawaii/UConn when it was blamed on quick throws or something (I'm not even sure because the obvious thing was obvious from cupcakes).
Less pass rush was expected when you lost Ojabo and Hutchinson - we talked about it all offseason. CSU was a glimmer of hope but after Hawaii and UConn we already knew this was a low ceiling D from a pass rush perspective.
So like -- what did you expect against Maryland veteran OL with an NFL tackle? I'll tell you what I expected after 2 weeks of no sacks against cupcakes: 1, maybe 2 at best vs Maryland. We got 3 and one of them was from Morris being a wrecking ball.
Yes, pressure is more than sacks. I made this argument with Wormley, Gary, and pre-senior-year move to stand up edge rush version of Hutch. It's like evaluating a DB by his INTs or a RB only by his big plays (in other words YPC) --- not a complete picture, or even close.
So again - it's not the observation - it's the timing. Might as well also note that Michigan didn't use tempo or perhaps that our offense didn't appear to use fullbacks very much. It is true!
My point is if one was expecting Harrell/Upshaw/McGregor and company to take a big step up at the same time that the competition level got a whole lot harder... that just doesn't seem like paying attention. Maybe after you watch the games check the box scores and you can broaden your understanding.
Also -- The big second half adjustment was: have your 290 pound DE crunch the starting QB. Tagovailo wasn't the same after that. That's impactful pressure right there.
I wasn't arguing, I agreed with Thunder
DeleteThe boxscore is complimentary, but in watching this game v the two previous, you don't need a stopwatch to observe Hawaii & UConn QBs, getting the ball out, quick. Maryland mixed things up, but there were far too many plays when Tag sat or moved around the pocket, while we were tied up
Again, not disputing there wasn't a lot of pressure. More than expected though. Getting even 1 sack organically (without a blitz) was a present surprise. Morris is STOCK UP in my eyes.
DeleteIt was observed by others before Maryland - not much of a hot take - the CSU pressure was a mirage based on lack of heat generated against Hawaii and UConn. I won't pretend to have watched those teams play other games lol, but it feels like an excuse not an explanation to say "well they got the ball out quick".
Maybe Hawaii changed up what they did but after 5 games Michigan remains their season low for sacks allowed. Western Kentucky, Duqense, Vanderbilt, and New Mexico State all had at least as many. Ditto for UConn and their other opponents.
If you watched those games and expected Michigan to produce more pass rush than last year against Maryland, or even match it, you are not paying attention to DL play...or very optimistic.
D was exposed a bit but got bailed out by the two INTs. That might be the best o we see till OSU, but Mullings made some bad mistakes. Safeties are good.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the announcers: Fox has a financial interest in promoting the Big 10 as a conference deep with talent and viable teams. Michigan is already established as a power, as is Ohio State and Penn State. Maryland is one they're trying to build up as a contender. They've got their work cut out for them past that.
ReplyDeleteMcNamara was not available to play in this game.
ReplyDeleteTo say that running backs are interchangeable is just stubbornly wrong. To say that Michigan has enjoyed a batch of different running backs lately who all have done some very nice things would be correct.
Mike Locksley has done a helluva job at Maryland and was correct yesterday when he said the game was more about Maryland than it was Michigan. Thats a veteran offense that was good last year. I'm pretty sure that both their offensive line and wide receiver room returned intact from last year. That's a real damn good big back we saw on Saturday even though big backs are passe' or some other word that is equally wrong.
We've, or at least I have been talking about how well our wide receivers block down field, Maryland has some stud receivers in your grill on every play, who then, on the next play run by you after they set your feet with their eyes and go catch the ball.
Locksley has been blessed with the Tagliova brothers for a good long time now and as far as I'm concerned, those two are interchangeable. Maybe the younger isn't quite as careful with the football on big downs when he wants to make it happen, but he was real good on Saturday. He'll get into the league, and get a chance to be the guy.
I don't care for Dan Enos, but that's just a really nice offense he has over there. When whatshisname in East Lansing crashes and burns, Enos is next.
We've been a little lucky against Maryland over the years in that we've got them late and beat up at the running back position. They have been hanging lots of points on people and then stalling as irreplaceable running backs went down. We got their full roster Saturday. If they stay healthy, they're gonna score points on people.
I'm agreeing with Thunder that what's changed is their defensive recruiting. they have some very nice, big, fast athletes on defense now.
This was a good win against a very credible football team who probably looked at the schedule and pointed at us in a big way since spring, as a win on Saturday after a reasonable expectation of coming in undefeated would be the best thing that has happened to Maryland football in forever.
Can't sign in with Google again.
DeleteRoanman
RBs aren't interchangeable, but a Heisman winning NFL starter who replaced another NFL starter, AS A Freshman!, is interchangeable with a guy throwing a badly underthrown int with the game on the line? As a junior? I don't think so. Big bro is accurate on that throw and moten is chasing from behind to prevent a td instead of tipping a game changing int to himself.
DeleteFwiw. I agree there are different skill sets. Michigan has a robust playbook.
Also agree that Maryland is solid. I worried about this game in the preseason but did let my guard down some for defensive worries after the cupcakes. The coverage was really good for the most part... But dime might be out best personnel.
Secondary is better than I thought in August. Green and sainristil are stepping up big as seniors.
This game was closer than it should have been. I don't like the QB change. Horses got changed in the middle of the stream. And I'm not so sure this QB is better than the one Michigan was riding. Blake Corum was the singular reason Michigan pulled this one out of the fire. I'm a Michigan fan for a long time now.But it's to the point where Im going to laugh if JJ McCarthy can't handle the Iowa defense, and Michigan loses.
ReplyDeleteWell, McCarthy is the only option right now since McNamara is hurt. So it doesn't really matter. McCarthy's the guy. I'm going to just root for the guy who's out there.
Delete'But it's to the point where Im going to laugh if JJ McCarthy can't handle the Iowa defense, and Michigan loses.'
DeleteSpoken like a true Michigan fan, eh?
Lol. Kinnick was always going to be a rough ride but that's true for Cade too. The next elite D he shreds through the air will be the first.
DeleteTo be fair, harbaugh want sure either. Having two good options seems like a good thing tho?
DeleteYes, I'm a Michigan fan. I had very high hopes for this season after what last season was like. I had thought Cade McNamara went through growing pains last year, and he, and the team was going to be even better this year. I wasn't expecting to have an indecisive coach about the QB, then change the QB, then see this performance by him on Saturday against a very bad passing defense .Michigan should have won going away. But we didn't .get that. We had to watch Michigan be behind until Blake Corum rode in like the Calvary over the hill and save the game. This game left a very bad taste in my mouth. It may have been a better game even if Davis Warren played. If this QB play continues, and Harbaugh leaves McCarthy in, then yes, I will laugh .Because what I will be watching will be a joke.
DeleteDo you have a stat there for leadership ability?
DeleteSo you are clearly the same anonymous who goes out of their way to bash our starting quarterback who - by the way - is #1 in the country in YPA and completion percentage, 3rd in QB rating, and has zero turnovers. You are either not a Michigan fan or have some personal connection to McNamara which prompts (???) you to denigrate McCarthy.
ReplyDeleteYou're a bomb thrower.
DeleteYou have a stat for leadership ability?
DeleteSo is McCarthy. McNamara is not.
DeleteYou have that stat I asked for? I'll wait.
DeleteIn how you talk about McNamara, I see you do not apply your philosophy of how a fan should talk about a QB to yourself .
DeleteAnons manufacturing a QB controversy when the backup is injured and the starter is 3-0 with a passer rating over 200, completion percentage over 80, and no INTs. Gotta love it.
ReplyDeleteGO BLUE!
So you Im alone in saying these things? You would be surprised who the people are that find issue with McCarthy.
DeleteI don't think you're alone Anonymous
DeleteI don't see any reason to distrust Harbaugh here - in either his transparency or his evaluation.
DeleteI take it at face value that the competition was close which is why Harbaugh kept it going. If you think one guy sucks (be it Cade or JJ) and the other is awesome (be it JJ or Cade), you have to consider that the other one wasn't good enough to beat the other out decisively in camp. Harbaugh isn't perfect but he's had 2 years and a bunch of high quality assistants in the program to look at both these guys. He sees them everyday - we see them a dozen times. So Harbaugh thought it was close and he's almost certainly right about that. So he decided to let them compete through camp.
But after camp - there was nothing to do but the obvious thing. After 2 games it was clear cut. And after the injury it was rendered moot. So what's the point of questioning it anyway? The only other option would have been to extend the competition further, but that would have undermined the legitimacy of it in the first place.
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My opinion is that JJ is probably overhyped right now (that's just what happens after 3 cupcakes) but I also think Cade wasn't all that great. The fact that JJ couldn't clearly defeat him is probably telling of mistakes he makes. He's mostly been lucky to avoid costly ones so far this year. This is exactly what everyone expected -- JJ is the higher risk/higher reward option.
With our D being less than last year's (probably) you need more from your QB. Either Cade needed to show he improved or JJ was going to take over. JJ took over.
Trust the coaches and your eyes. Let go of your summer expectations - they're irrelevant now. This team probably isn't better than last years, even if their schedule is easier. The best bet for it to be better is probably the guy you're questioning. Team Cade is defeated, but can take solace in knowing that at some point he'll be back and most likely get another shot - at UM or elsewhere.