Hello, J.J. McCarthy. Well, McCarthy didn't wait too long to stake his claim for the starting quarterback job. He completed 11/12 passes for 229 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions while rushing 1 time for 16 yards. His first pass was a 42-yard bomb to Roman Wilson for a touchdown, and he didn't really slow down after that. Every pass was accurate, even a crisp RPO slant to Ronnie Bell that accounted for McCarthy's lone incompletion. It was an excellent starting debut against an atrocious team.
Hit the jump for more.
So . . . Cade McNamara, huh? Almost everything about Cade McNamara's performances this year has been alarming. He's making poor reads. Receivers are dropping the ball. His mechanics were poor when he threw an interception against Hawaii. Altogether, he finished 4/6 for 26 yards, 0 TD, and 1 INT, and he was sacked 2 times for -17 yards. Furthermore, the offensive line is blocking like s*** when he's in there, and the play calling is uninspired. I'm not saying this is happening, because it's dumb, but it almost looks like a case where everyone around him is sabotaging his chances to look good. He's a captain and a good leader and a Big Ten championship starting QB. But when the OL doesn't block, the receivers don't catch, and the play calls are iffy, what can a relatively immobile QB do to succeed? Nothing.
Has anyone else seen the elephant standing over there? The good news is that McCarthy looked really good. The bad news is that Michigan's multi-year starting QBs tend to get worse. You've noticed this, haven't you?
- Wilton Speight 2016: 61.6% completions, 18 TD, 7 INT, 139.76 PER
- Wilton Speight 2017: 54.3%, 3 TD, 2 INT, 121.85 PER
- Shea Patterson 2018: 64.6%, 22 TD, 7 INT, 149.85 PER
- Shea Patterson 2019: 56.2%, 23 TD, 8 INT, 139.38 PER
- Cade McNamara 2021: 64.2%, 15 TD, 6 INT, 141.87 PER
- Cade McNamara 2022: 54.2%, 1 TD, 1 INT, 116.29 PER
Of course, there's still time for McNamara to improve those numbers as we get later in the year. Jim Harbaugh came out after the game and said McCarthy earned the start for next week against UConn, but poor play or injury could lead to more opportunities for McNamara. Regardless, QB development has been lacking for guys who stick around Michigan for multiple years.
The defense was suffocating. Until late in the game, Hawaii didn't have a chance on anything. They recorded two first downs in the first half. Quarterback Joey Yellen completed 13/36 passes for 113 yards. Starting running back Dedrick Parson had 12 carries for 28 yards. Backup running back Tylan Hines broke out on a 54-yard touchdown late in the game, but the closest guys to him were freshman linebacker Micah Pollard and freshman safety Keon Sabb. It would still have been nice to hold the shutout - which was gone by that point after a field goal - but backups need experience so they can be next year's starters.
Some freshmen look like the real deal. C.J. Stokes had 8 carries for 61 yards. It was against a bad opponent, but still, you can see some explosiveness, toughness, and change of direction. Defensive tackle Mason Graham and defensive end Derrick Moore are both also ready to play. There are other freshmen who look like solid future contributors, but Stokes, Graham, and Moore all look they can help in 2022.
Concerns? I'm concerned about the offensive line. There were breakdowns in protection and they aren't as dominant in the run game as expected. Olu Oluwatimi looks very good at center, but Trente Jones and Zak Zinter have had some rough moments. I want to watch the film again to see more about how Ryan Hayes looked, but he did give up a pressure.
Game predictions so far? Not bad. Last week I said it would be 52-17 and it ended up 51-7. This week I said it would be 56-7 and it ended up 56-10. I think Michigan's coaching staff must be reading my blog and doing the best they can to mirror what I project, so next week, I'm predicting a 223-0 score against UConn so Michigan can set the record for most points in a football game (currently set at 222-0 for Georgia Tech over Cumberland back in 1916).
On D, I'd like a shutout too. They've earned it, but I love that we've emptied our bench. Lank mentioned walkon morale regarding scholarships, and playing time is every bit as important. Our backups are gaining experience, and practice guys get to have a little fun too
ReplyDeleteWe've heard about Harbaugh QBs getting worse since he got here, but let's look deeper
- speight was never good. He was surrounded by a playoff caliber roster, and asked not to screw it up. The next year, we were young, inexperienced, and not very good. Speight got broken
- peters had all the physical tools, but - as seen in Champaign - he never developed the intangibles. He didn't get worse, he just never had "it"
- Patterson got hurt, and the time on the golf course may have hindered his progression and shot at a pro career
- Milton still stands flatfooted in the pocket, stares at his predetermined target, and forces the ball, whether it's a good choice or not. Give him some pressure, and he p:sses himself
- Cade is speight, but with better talent around him. Take away the easy throw, and he has nothing. Dude checked down for a 9yd to Loveland, and 3d & really long ... the coaches can only do so much
- I hope JJ can stay healthy. That's all I see standing between him and greatness
I would also put Cade and Speight on similar footing. Solid starters on the best teams of the Harbaugh era who later saw 5-stars take away their spot.
DeleteI feel like the difference was that Speight took chances when he needed to, for better or worse, and was generally more willing to throw down field. Speight also had his results affected by injuries.
But ultimately neither QB can really make too many excuses for starting off 2017 and 2022 seasons so poorly. Both may be judged by what they do after their Michigan career. We'll see though.
I watched the YouTube highlights this morning, and I'm wondering about Davis Warren. If memory serves, he flashed some promise in the spring game. And his time last night looked promising. Is he a hidden gem now found? Or is he a guy that a high floor but low ceiling and is about what he'll ever be?
ReplyDeleteSome comments I've read wondered about Blake Corum ... that he seemed a bit slower. He's 210lbs this year, compared to 200 last year. Could that extra 10lbs be slowing him down a tick?
On Warren, he seems high floor. Don't know about his ceiling, because we haven't seen much
DeleteBut he looks like a college QB. Use him or lose him
We badly need a QB controversy. Warren, Orji, Bowman -- who you got!?
DeleteWho said anything about a 'QB controversy?' It was just a question about Warren. He's a relative unknown who seems to look better than his sophomore status would suggest.
DeleteJust a joke. Warren might be the most likely backup QB in 2023 if Vegas set lines on such thing but we are getting way ahead of ourselves.
DeleteFrost fired at Nebraska ... bring him in as an Analyst or whatever. We'll probably lose Moore or Weiss anyway, and options with continuity are a good thing
ReplyDeleteFrost will land on his feet. Things went wrong in Nebraska but he's a good HC. I mean, things almost went wrong for Harbaugh in AA too...
DeleteI don't think Frost would work at Michigan. He doesn't like Michigan, and we don't like him. Of course, Gary Patterson is working at Texas now, so never say never.
DeleteExactly. We never know what might happen. If there's a chance we lose both OCs (another great season), we could do much worse
DeleteCupcakes are enjoyable but 1 is usually enough. Can be delicious but the cheap ones can be too sweet and kind of make you feel gross. A third serving is never a good idea.
ReplyDeleteWith QB settled I wonder what is left to learn or debate from UConn. Hawaii is so bad you can't draw many conclusions, but the QB disparity was so enormous that the thing that felt controversial but inevitable became obvious and anticlimactic.
I hope people appreciate Harbaugh played this perfectly for the team. McNamara got a fair chance. And now, having lost the competition he can't go running to daddy like McCaffrey and has no real option other than to stick it out. Play the backup role through the end of the season and then make a decision. It's best for Michigan because we might still need him.
I feel bad for Cade but he'll get another shot in 2023 (at the latest) and no one can take 2021 away. That's better than it could have gone - McCaffrey is going through a similarly embarrassing situation in 2022, albeit outside the limelight on a much lower level.
As for the rest the team, they move on but it's a few more weeks of glimpses here and there. Maryland will at least test the D. Iowa will test the O. Kinnick will give McCaffrey his first chance to prove himself under pressure. Looks like we're still a month out from seeing a game where Michigan is legitimately threatened. I guess some folks prefer it this way.
The season prospects look strong right now with Iowa and Nebraska seeming to devolve. I'm not sure we know much more about Michigan football than we did 24 hours ago but I know I feel slightly more optimistic about going to Columbus undefeated. And after watching ND lose again I feel a bit better about that too.
My conclusions from the QB numbers are quite different. What we see is a bunch of guys with PER around 140 - and Jake Rudock fit there too. Exclude the short seasons (Cade's less than 1 full game in 2022 and Speight's 3 and half in 2017) and the only outlier is Patterson getting to 150 in 2018. Hopefully JJ gets there.
ReplyDeleteAs for guys developing from year to year - so far JJ looks much better in 2022 than 2021, and Cade looked better in 2021 than 2020, and Speight looked better in 2016 than 2015.
I'll acknowledge that it's curious that Patterson seemed to fall off in 2019 until you remember that they installed a new OC who had never called plays before. I think Patterson had already hit his ceiling the year before (and perhaps even earlier).
I'm 100% skeptical Cade is worse QB today than he was 1 year ago or 3 months ago. I think Harbaugh is being honest that the competition was legit and that JJ has surged ahead. Cade may be upset for the moment - and he's justified in that with jackhat fans booing him and losing his job to a more talented younger player - but hopefully it's a temporary and he realizes this isn't the end of the road for him.
I don't think Patterson put in the work. At any rate, Gattis and patterson never seemed to be on the same page.
DeleteNot being on the same page is understandable since Gattis' golf dig did a lot of damage to Patterson's reputation. Pretty unprofessional IMO.
DeleteI will say though that few folks can match the 2-game run he had late in 2019 against MSU and Indiana. 44/65 750 yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT, and passer rating above 200. Rudock's 2015 games against Rutgers and Indiana come close 58/81 777 yards 8 TDs, 2 INT and he's widely lauded for it. Patterson is not - because expectations were so different, and so was the bowl game opponent's level of difficulty.
I think Michigan was figuring things out with Patterson to close the year they just ran into 2 brick walls in OSU and Alabama. Things ended on a sour note but much of that (like OSU scoring TDs on 6 of 7 drives) is outside of Patterson.
Patterson was good when Michigan needed great to beat OSU. McNamara was fine when Michigan needed somebody to just not throw INTs.
Patterson remains the best Michigan QB of the Harbaugh era IMO. Hopefully JJ changes that this year.
I had a working hypothesis that Harbaugh QB recruits were getting better each time.
ReplyDeleteMalzone < Peters < McCaffrey < Milton < McNamara <McCarthy
I ignored Villari to make this work but that doesn't matter anymore, because McCaffrey is not going to catch up to Peters.
New Harbaugh Michigan QB Recruit Rankings.
1. McCarthy
2. McNamara
3. Milton
4. Peters
5. McCaffrey
6. Orji
7. Villari
8. Malzone
Villari looks like he is headed for a position change but still ranks ahead of Malzone because produced something at least while playing QB at Michigan. Ditto for Orji, already. TBD on Denegal. Both freshman could still end up anywhere on this list.
McNamara and Milton may end up "competing" again at new schools in 2023 - at least in this trivial little exercise. For now they are both veteran backups at high end programs. McNamara also has an extra year of eligibility if he chooses to use it. His college career could be twice as long as McCarthy's. Milton will be fighting an uphill battle to try to pass McNamara no matter how you look at it. He has work to do to catch up to Peters too, but with 2 years of eligibility and a superior career at Michigan it's not much of a leap.
The offensive line not looking as good? Maybe it's the Ed Warinner effect finally wearing off.
ReplyDeleteThey looked ok early on, but they seemed to lake focus when Cade came in. At any rate, if a free runner got loose on JJ, JJ would just drop it a gear and lose the dude like he was in sand.
DeleteWas thinking exact same thing
DeleteWell, McCarthy certainly looked plenty coached up against the little sisters of the poor. Its year one anyway, so year over year regressing QBs is not the issue for this season.
ReplyDeleteWe still need to see JJ take a hit early, and see how he recovers. The game changes once DL & blitzers are coming at you ... need the running game to get going
ReplyDeleteYes that's right. JJ earned the job and in a few weeks @Iowa we'll find out if he deserves to keep it.
DeleteCade played well in tough spots last year; in Madison, Lincoln, Happy Valley, and East Lansing. These cupcakes tell us nothing about that. But JJ played a ton of meaningful snaps last year too, so not like he is entirely unknown.
We've seen Cade go from the guy everybody to loves to the guy everybody scrutinizes. We've seen Cade go from 82% to 47% completion percentage when the competition ramps up on D.
JJ was the backup who could play care-free. Now he wil face the pressure, before the game and during it.