RUSH OFFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #11 in rushing offense (234.3 yards/game) and #6 in yards per carry. Blake Corum has been the workhorse so far, leading the team with 64 attempts for 478 yards and a nation-high 9 rushing touchdowns. Backup Donovan Edwards was rumored to have been coming back to play last week, but he sat out the Maryland game and has not broken out yet this year (127 total yards, 2 touchdowns). I'm cautiously optimistic that he will play against the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, Iowa is #6 in rushing defense (73 yards allowed/game) and #4 in yards allowed per carry (2.21). They have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Senior middle linebacker Jack Campbell (6'5", 246 lbs.) spearheads the defense with 39 tackles and weakside linebacker Seth Benson (6'0", 232) follows behind with 30 stops. Iowa's two starting defensive tackles are 289 and 275 pounds, so they're not big up the middle, but they are relatively quick and athletic. Lukas Van Ness (6'5", 275) is part of a potent rotation at defensive tackle and leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Iowa's defensive backs also do a very good job of triggering on the run and tackling; the defensive backfield ranks #3 through #6 on the team in tackles, and while usually that's not a good sign for the front seven, in this case they're all part of a very good defense. Iowa runs a 4-3 (or 4-2-5) with two high safeties, so the defensive backs need to be good tacklers or else teams would run the ball all over them.
Advantage: Iowa
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. IOWA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan had a "bad" day passing last week when quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed just 18/26 passes for 220 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. There were two big frustrations: 1) he missed several deep shots and 2) he sat in the pocket too long waiting for things to open up. Many quarterbacks wouldn't mind that being their bad day. Michigan is #53 in sacks allowed (1.75 per game) and should get starting left guard Trevor Keegan back from injury. On the receiving end, Edwards could provide a boost out of the backfield, but the #1 target has been Ronnie Bell (17 catches, 253 yards, 1 touchdown) with Roman Wilson (8 catches, 196 yards, 3 TD) and Luke Schoonmaker (10 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD) also factoring in heavily. Iowa has the #14 pass defense in the nation (163.3 yards allowed/game) and the #3 passer rating defense. They're #16 in sacks (3.0 per game) despite not having a dominant pass rusher. Van Ness has 3 sacks to lead the squad. On the back end, all four of Iowa's starters are in their fourth year or later, and nickel player Cooper DeJean (6'1", 209) already has 3 interceptions. Last week against Rutgers, he returned 1 interception for a touchdown and safety Kaevon Merriweather (6'0", 212) scored on a fumble return. McCarthy threw a pick in limited time in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa last year, and hopefully he can avoid big mistakes in this one.
Advantage: Iowa
RUSH DEFENSE vs. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #35 in rush defense (109 yards allowed/game) and #29 in yards per carry allowed (3.16). Last week Maryland required 34 carries to get 128 yards, which isn't terrible for Maryland (3.76 yards/carry) but is unlikely to help a team take over the game against a team with a quality offense. Inside linebacker Junior Colson tallied 13 tackles last week and leads the team with 30 so far this year, followed by fellow inside guy Mike Barrett (18), nose tackle Mazi Smith (16), and nickel corner (15). It's not often that a nose tackle is #3 on a team in tackles, but Smith was #1 on Bruce Feldman's Freaks List for a reason. Iowa is #116 in rushing offense (102 yards/game) and #118 in yards per carry (3.03). Iowa traditionally has a strong offensive line, but they are struggling this year. They have a couple competent running backs, but Leshon Williams (5'10", 210) averages 3.5 yards per carry and Gavin Williams (6'0", 214) averages 3.4. In the Big Ten conference, those YPC averages are #36 and #38 amongst qualifying runners. Yikes. (For a comparison, Iowa's backs in 2021 were #14, #15, and #16 in the conference.) Whereas Iowa often turns a bunch of ho-hum recruits to play offensive line - and turns them into studs - right guard Beau Stephens and right tackle Connor Colby both were quality recruits who aren't playing great. Center Logan Jones (6'3", 283) is likely going to have a rough day trying to block Smith.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #4 in pass defense (134.8 yards allowed/game) and #5 in passing efficiency defense. They're tied for #2 in yards per attempt allowed at just 4.7; the only team ahead of them is Iowa, and the only team tied with them is Illinois. The Big Ten rules! (Unless you think about the fact that some of those numbers have come against poor Big Ten passing offenses.) Anyway, both cornerback D.J. Turner and safety R.J. Moten made acrobatic interceptions last week, and the entire secondary played well except when covering Maryland's tight ends. The question mark comes in the pass rush, where 292 lb. defensive end Mike Morris and nickel corner Mike Sainristil lead the team with 2 sacks each. Meanwhile, Iowa is #124 in passing offense (131 yards/game) and #125 in passing efficiency. Senior quarterback Spencer Petras (6'5", 231) has completed 51.1% of his passes for 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on 5.6 yards per attempt. The most frequent target is senior tight end Sam LaPorta (6'4", 249), who averages 9.6 yards on 16 receptions. Sophomore wideout Arland Bruce IV (5'10", 198) has caught 10 passes for 132 yards and Iowa's lone passing touchdown. Iowa allows 2.25 sacks per game, which is tied for #79 in the country.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Iowa players recruited by Michigan include: WR Arland Bruce IV, OT Connor Colby, OT David Davidkov, S Koen Entringer, DE Max Llewellyn, S Xavier Nwankpa, RB Jaziun Patterson, OG Beau Stephens, RB Gavin Williams
- Iowa players from the state of Michigan include: S Branden Deasfernandes (Belleville), S Koen Entringer (Walled Lake Western), CB Deshaun Lee (Belleville), S Kaevon Merriweather (Belleville)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On December 4, 2021, Michigan beat Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game
- QB Cade McNamara completed 16/24 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
- RB Donovan Edwards completed a 75-yard halfback pass to WR Roman Wilson for a touchdown
- RB Blake Corum scored on a 67-yard touchdown run
- Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed 9/22 passes for 137 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 24, Iowa 10
You've been remarkably accurate with your score predictions, so I'll simply give a thumbs-up!
ReplyDeleteIowa D may be elite, but our O is finally good. No trick plays, and still dominating
ReplyDeleteSo similar to last year, dominant OOC, Maryland is our Rutgers, Iowa is our Wisconsin, will Indiana be our Nebraska?
ReplyDeleteFrustrating, but have to take it ...
ReplyDeletethis is like last week first half, making a bad Maryland D look good
This week we made a bad Iowa O look good in the 2d half
The team is better when McNamara plays. Obvious now, isn't it .
ReplyDeleteAren't we 5-o, same as last year? Instead of going down to the wire against rutger, it was a respectable Maryland O. Instead of a down Wisconsin, it's an Iowa team on track to win the B1G West
DeleteI think the offense is more efficient than it looked 12mos ago, but we have a high upside QB ... just needs some of Cade's smarts (take the Sack, not a Fumble)
What is wrong with you?
DeleteIowa's on track to win the West? What? Let the exaggerations about JJ continue!! Support those exaggerations in any possible way---yeah, Iowa is on track that track!!
DeleteNothins wrong with me. Michigan looked better against Iowa last year than today. You think that's wrong? If so, what's wrong with you?? Overall, Michigan looked better last year than this year. You don't agree? Man, come on. Maryland has the #97 defense. You liked what Michigan looked like against them last week? You did?
DeleteOne last question, is JJ McCarthy turning out to be as good as you thought he would be?
Right now in the West, it's Minnesota or Iowa ...
DeleteDid we look better last year? On a neutral field vice at kinnick, YES. With two 1st Rd DEs bookending our DL, YES
Did Cade do better than JJ? Not statistically ... plus, there was an INT in the B1G title game, so there's that
So you acknowledge the ranking of Maryland's defense but no mention of the ranking of Iowa's defense. Surely you are a unbiased & rational.
DeleteAnonymousOctober 2, 2022 at 11:55 AM,
Deleteyou're that hit and run bomb thrower, aren't you.
Anon would need to explain why it's obvious - so I guess the answer is no. Very similar outcomes other than what happened after the game was in hand.
DeleteGoing into the 4th it was 21-3 vs 20-0. Slightly less efficient this year but fewer turnovers - which makes sense strategically if Iowa's D is better and Iowa's O is worse (compared to last year).
The biggest difference between last year and this year is Hutchinson, Ojabo, and Hill. Offense looks slightly upgraded but maybe more capable (and reliant) on big plays.
DeleteHere's a stat - Brad Robbins has punted 15 times this year. Last year through 5 games he punted 19 times.
As for McCarthy - he out McNamara'd McNamara in terms of mistake avoidance and composure. This is what we hoped for - replicate the game management while offering more upside. Hell of a performance for a kid in his first big ten road start, let alone against an elite D.
JJ McCarthy is a better quarterback than Cade McNamara, full stop. Also - Cade McNamara is hurt and currently cannot play football. So again - I'm not sure what you are crying about.
ReplyDeleteThe JJ hype train comin through, full stop!! Toot toot!!!!
DeleteYeah, a freshman QB starting out against two half way decent teams, getting the wins, completing 70% of the his passes, no picks, 3TDs.
DeleteJJ is playing a lot better than Henson did in his first games, and Henson was throwing to an NFL first rounder and handing off to a NFL first rounder.
Brady making his starts as a redshirt JUNIOR certainly didn't lite the town on fire.
JJ is doing great and will only get better.
What team has a freshman QB doing that? Do you know what you're doing?
DeleteGreat win yesterday. I saw this as a loss going into the year but Iowa's offense has proved too putrid to be a real threat. Though apparently not too putrid to score on a prevent defense, so they have that going for them.
ReplyDeleteVery good performance from the offense. McCarthy and Corum did their McNamara and Haskisn impressions and looked like upgrades. All the talk about QB and RB changes and we got pretty much the same thing, against a better Iowa D. Perhaps that's disappointing to some. Not for me @kinnick, or first road game of the year, or first game against a real D. Compare to Washington or Rutgers in 2021 and we're flying.
D wasn't really tested but nonetheless Mike Morris had a coming out party. It's a near best case scenario so far on DL and DB, save maybe for the 'other' non-Morris edge spot. Even there it looks like Harrell and Okie are setting up as a solid rotation. LB looks a bit worse than hoped but that's what happens when you lose a starter at a spot without much depth. Perspective -- Shutting out anyone through 3 quarters is good work, especially on the road. Though TBF it did not seem the refs were too happy with Iowa's O.
Fantastic win. While I don't think much of Iowa this year, we were at kinnick. Smart game plan, not allowing JJ to play the hero. Prevent D made Petras look better than he is, and vanilla 2d Half O limited our points
DeleteBut that said, we controlled this thing from start to finish. That's impressive
Yep - for Iowa to come back and win it was going to take a turnover. The almost got it on JJ's fumble when we were up 20-0. Even Iowa was able to score on a short field and there's your recipe for disaster right there in front of your face. After that, it was time to be careful on both sides of the ball.
DeleteSo Iowa spends 7 minutes of clock trying to comeback from 20-7. Hard to say it's ideal when you give up an 80 yard drive, but 0 points and 7 minutes off the clock is not far off.
Run the ball, tick-tock. Play prevent D, tick tock. 5-0
Good win. They did the "Anaconda" on Iowa, just choked them out.
ReplyDeleteCorum will not last if they keep giving him 30 carries, he needs to be on a pitch count. No more than 12 carries against Indiana, need Edwards to get more carries and let Stokes out of the dog house.
Also, need a more balanced offense, let JJ throw it more, get the throws up to 35 a game.
Corum is fine. There's a risk to having a primary back but sometimes you lean on your best guys. He shouldn't need to carry the ball 30 times again too often. Edwards and Stokes should get more touches in the weeks ahead but if we need Corum to carry the ball 30, 40 or even 50 times against PSU or OSU well that's just what we'll do.
DeleteCorum is 14th in the country in carries, and 3rd in the Big Ten.
DeleteThe concern is over this. This is Cade McNamara as leader:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/jdue51/status/1464977218220830732
JJ McCarthy doesn't seem to have this level of leadership in him. It is concerning that he seems to have a Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure air about him. And it shows in his occasional carelessness with the ball, and now numerous overthrows. Hopefully the Bill and Ted looseness won't show up in the really tough Penn St game coming up. But I'm concerned, very concerned.
Oh come on, So-Crates was a total dude.
DeleteLOL - so you just don't like JJ. Well that's certainly allowed but not doing enough yelling is a specific perspective on leadership. Others might see frosted tips as a dubious aesthetic choice that won't engender the respect of teammates. This is definitely in the subjective realm so anything goes I guess.
DeleteIt's funny that one of these kids is from Illinois and the other Nevada but it's a bit of (fake) role reversal with the midwesterner being the flaky air-head and the west coast kid being the no nonsense tough guy (from NJ? LOL).
I personally haven't seen any indication of a lack of leadership from JJ. His teammates seem to respect him and I haven't noticed a bunch of delay of game penalties or offsides calls so I'm not sure he needs to be yelling or doing it is whatever Cade would theoretically be doing.
Moreover, you're comparing a guy in the last regular season of his junior year to a sophomore in his 4th start. Maybe by the end of the year Cade will be doing enough yelling to suit you.
It seems like you either have to compare it player-to-player at the same point or you have to think about the decision at hand (does not exist because Cade is hurt). Otherwise you're just still stuck on the fact that Harbaugh let these 2 compete.
For the rest of us we're looking at the results and they are excellent. Particularly if you compare apples to apples with Cade at the same point -- against PSU in 2020 and Washington in 2021 when he was a sophomore and/or new starter.
It's night and day. JJ all day.
I think you're really reaching if you think Cade McNamara is a better QB because he yells at his teammates when they're not doing what they're supposed to do. McCarthy is #5 in passing efficiency, #5 in yards per attempt, and #1 in completion percentage...in the country!
DeleteQuestion for Thunder:. I often see posts at the other site for days before they make it here for comments. Sometimes, those posts never get transferred
ReplyDeleteIs this a choice? A glitch?
It's mostly a glitch in my brain. Also, sometimes when things get posted, I can't post them on here. For example, I can access Wordpress at work, but I can't access Blogger. At this time of year I spend so much time at work that I sometimes go a couple days without getting on the internet at home.
DeleteBy the time I go to work on Friday mornings and get to the games on Friday evenings and do all the postgame work into Saturday mornings, sometimes I'm working about 20-hour days. As a former military guy, I'm sure that schedule doesn't awe you or anything - and I'm not asking for sympathy - but it just shows how little I'm at home. Then Saturday mornings, we spend most of the day game planning for the next week on about 3 hours of sleep.
No worries sir, I was just curious. I can only imagine coaching on top of a full-time job ... brutal!
Delete