That was more difficult than it should have been. Michigan should have blown out MSU by more than 22 points. Offensively, the Spartans couldn't do anything more than toss prayer balls up to 6'4", 215 lb. wide receiver Keon Coleman, who had a great game with 5 catches for 155 yards and 1 touchdown. MSU averaged 4.75 yards per offensive player, a lower average than any game except when Ohio State held them to 4.21. But somehow a team ranked in the 100s in most pass defense categories held J.J. McCarthy to 15/25 completions, 167 yards, and 1 touchdown. The lack of a passing game forced Michigan to call on kicker Jake Moody 5 times, and he kicked 5 field goals, including a 54-yarder. It was a beating, but not as decisive as I wanted.
Hit the jump for more.
Blake Corum continues to be awesome. Corum rushed 33 times for 177 yards and 1 touchdown, along with catching a touch pass for a 2-yard score. He finished numerous runs by hopping on one foot, tugging defenders along, spinning out of tackles, and generally being perhaps the best back in the country. He's one of the best running backs to ever suit up in a Michigan uniform, and the Wolverines probably only have him for a handful more games. However, he's averaging 29 carries per game over the past five weeks, and that's too much to sustain. Hopefully he can get a bit of a break against Rutgers and a couple other teams in the coming weeks.
The fight in the tunnel. For the second game in a row, controversy arose from Michigan's tunnel. PB&J sandwiches were allegedly thrown by Penn State players. Now something more serious occurred: video surfaced of Michigan cornerback Ja'den McBurrows being pushed, punched, and kicked by several Michigan State players. It's confusing to me why McBurrows was alone, surrounded by so many Spartans, but a picture also popped up of him heading into the tunnel with MSU players before Michigan players were supposed to enter. It's hard to say what happened beforehand. Maybe McBurrows was talking crap or maybe he just really needed to go to the bathroom. Regardless, the beating he took from a bunch of MSU players was unnecessarily violent. (McBurrows is from Florida and doesn't play, so I really don't understand why he would go out of his way to insert himself into the rivalry so brazenly if that's what he was doing.)
Ugly scene in Ann Arbor following the game 😳pic.twitter.com/nWggbu7VMw
— Footballism™ (@FootbaIIism) October 30, 2022
J.J. McCarthy was off. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy played okay. He didn't turn over the ball and completed 15/24 passes with 1 touchdown. But he missed some easy throws and didn't make any big plays in the passing game. He did have several nice scrambles, but I've come to expect more. He almost always completes the easy throws, except for a couple glitches on bubble screens against Penn State.
Red zone woes. Unless Michigan is on the 2-yard line and can just count on Blake Corum to wiggle and flop and bounce his way into the endzone, Michigan's red zone execution is pretty terrible. Somehow they seem to be the one team with an athletic quarterback that can't figure out how to use the QB in the run game near the goal line. They're not good at using rub routes, fades, etc. to create scores. This is where someone like Cornelius Johnson or Nico Collins or maybe Darrius Clemons could be helpful. The aforementioned Keon Coleman of MSU is a one-on-one mismatch, too.
Hats off to Jesse Minter. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter called an excellent game. There were a couple issues - including Coleman beating some guys one-on-one, plus a coverage breakdown - but Michigan made almost everything else tough on MSU. Spartan quarterback Payton Thorne completed 17/30 passes for 215 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while running 5 times for 2 yards. Running backs Jalen Berger and Elijah Collins combined for 16 carries for 39 yards. Michigan was essentially better at every single position, and it showed.
The rest of the way. Michigan has Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, and then Ohio State left. The first two should be gimme wins, while Illinois' defense is playing extremely well. The Ohio State game is a toss-up to a lot of people, but I still feel like the Buckeyes look like the superior team. But there will be a great deal of hoopla if both teams go into the Horseshoe at 11-0.
So maybe it will be soon that the "Maybe JJ isn't as good as we thought" moment comes. Maybe all the blaming of the WRs, and the O Line, and the coaches, and the play calling, for how JJ is playing will stop, and people will say, "JJ is the way JJ is because of JJ."
ReplyDeleteMaybe. But the thought nobody will have except you, is that McNamara should have the job.
DeleteThe "maybe" is, at least, your first step to recovery.
Deletewe lost last year.
DeleteWe won easily this year.
The end.
On to Rutgers.
The discussion started with who is the better QB, not if the game was won. Why did you move from talking about the QB? It was because you knew after watching how the passing game looked last Saturday night, you needed to avoid talking about it. And do you, while advocating as hard for JJ McCarthy as you are, really want to talk about how last years game was lost?
DeleteSee 2:12 to 2:18 of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQxaEVkiTzU
2021:
Cade Mcnamara, 28/44 383yards, 2 TD 1 int
2022:
JJ McCarthy 15/25 167yards 1 TD 0 int
You can see how much better the passing game was last year under Cade McNamara.
Can we stick to the subject that the comments started on?
McNamara is where he belongs he had his opportunity and lost in a straight up competition. Everybody has better days than others, pulling out one game is sillily. The best quarterback is playing the lesser quarterbacks are sitting. Onward and upward.
DeleteSilly is a good word for this. A former Heisman candidate college qb and NFL starter, Super Bowl coach and 15 year head coach after a summer of watching every throw and two games decides on which of two guys is better. You now cherry pick one games numbers after rejecting all other comparisons in which Cade loses. Silly is what your position is exactly.
DeleteIn one of the photo collections from the MSU game last weekend, Cade McNamara was present, but not in uniform. I assume that means he's still injured, which suggests whatever the early-season injury was, it was somewhat serious. If McNamara was merely disgruntled about losing the starting position, it's unlikely he would be out of uniform yet still in attendance.
DeleteI think the rushing numbers for McNamara vs. McCarthy are interesting:
Delete2021 McNamara
o 14 games
o 37 attempts
o 27 yards
o 0.7 yards average
o 1 TD
o 2.64 attempts/game
o 1.86 yards/game
2022 McCarthy
o 8 games (so far)
o 35 attempts
o 197 yards
o 5.63 average
o 1 TD
o 4.38 attempts/game
o 24.63 yards/game
What I'd like to see are two additional numbers:
o 3rd down and more than 5 converted by QB run
o Sack avoided due to QB scramble with positive yards gained
The point here is that McCarthy is a very credible run threat, and that's something opposing defenses have to take into account. McCarthy is not a *featured* run threat, but he's more than capable when the situation is present. McNamara, for all his positive qualities, is not. It would be interesting to see how Michigan would have fared in 2021 without Haskins, who was particularly adept at picking up yards to gain first downs. If Michigan had been forced to rely on McNamara's arm to get those first downs, how would they have fared?
Commentary here, elsewhere, and from the coaches suggests that the lack of a deep passing game is in large part due to opposing defenses taking that away with 2-high safeties, which is allowing Michigan's run game to prosper. "Taking what the defense is giving" is the explanation. I'm not sure I buy that 100% -- why would they do that with Blake Corum as RB? It's an almost sure recipe for Corum going off, as he's done.
But back to the main point: McCarthy's credible run threat and run production is valuable. He has shown he can make the long pass. His TD:INT ration is 10:2 through 8 games; McNamara's through 14 last year was 15:6.
I like McNamara; I wish he were healthy and ready to contribute this season. He's not, and so far McCarthy is doing an admirable job.
There is no point in arguing with the McnaANON. Even if you ignore the recruiting rankings, age differential, running production, superior passing performances, 2022 head-to-head whoopin, decision by one of the best coaches in the country, team record and injury status.... McnaANON will still cherry-pick whatever stat he can come up with to say McNamara was better.
DeleteIt doesn't even have to make sense - like the head-to-head MSU comparison where Michigan LOST with McNamara throwing a pick with the game on the line.
McnaANON will not be convinced. Everyone knew that McCarthy is a better runner and more talented passer but the argument for Cade hinged on his turnover avoidance and game management. McCarthy has proven better at both. He's turning the ball over less and he's winning more.
He's also a better passer (165 passer rating vs 145 for Cade last year, 79 QBR vs 75 QBR for Cade last year). There's no case left for the injured backup QB. At least Joe Milton can say he has a better arm than Hendon Hooker.
Cade's side has nothing - even his career best game (2021 MSU / 406 yards / QBR 86) has worst outcomes than JJ's career worst game (2022 MSU / 217 yards / QBR 66). Case closed - though we could say that after Hawaii when the QB decision became moot.
I'd have probably gone with "Childish" over silly, as childish suggests the pugnacious petulance of a 13 year old upon having been caught wrong. Think Mike Valenti and Rico about the assault in the tunnel these last three days if you happen to listen to Detroit Sports radio. But silly, feels like the kinder word, so I'm in with silly.
DeleteRoanman
Damage control. Damage control. Keep stoking that fire of damage control.
DeleteThe harder all of you work at protecting JJ through damage control, the more insecure about him I know you are feeling.
There should be no need for jumping into protection mode. It should be obvious he is better than McNamara. But he hasn't been looking better than McNamara. He is impatient. He does not look whole field over. He makes snap decisions. He is not fully engaged in the moment when he is on the field. He does not work as hard as McNamara. I wish I was a reporter at a Jim Harbaugh press conference. I would ask him if he still feels after watching McCarthy this year, and comparing it to what McNamara did last year, if he still feels McCarthy is better. Because what we all saw last Saturday night was agony to watch.
But go ahead and jump into damage control/protection mode about McCarthy. Make those loooooooooooooooooong replies, if it will help make you fell better. Knock yourselves out!
"He [McCarthy] is impatient. He does not look whole field over."
DeleteThere's some merit to this. I think McNamara was better at understanding the field better. That's what experience provides, which is what McCarthy is gaining by being a starter how. I'm sure Harbaugh/Weiss looked at the totality of what McNamara brings (which is a lot) and McCarthy can bring (which is a great deal) and chose to endure some growing pains to get to a higher level.
"I would ask him [Harbaugh] if he still feels after watching McCarthy this year, and comparing it to what McNamara did last year, if he still feels McCarthy is better."
To the extent Harbaugh would answer that -- he's a master at coach-speak and not answering questions -- he would answer that he considers McCarthy to be better. He would say, I would speculate, that if he thought otherwise then McCarthy would not be starting.
I admired McNamara's steadiness and on-field judgment. He's a great QB, and I truly wish he was healthy and could play backup and help Michigan win all their games this year. But pretty much everyone, except you, sees the upside potential of McCarthy and understands that's the horse to ride.
"Upside".
DeleteI KNEW that word would be trotted out and used as damage control. I said it weeks ago. All you have to talk about is "upside". And you left out "higher ceiling". You can't talk about what is happening on the field right now. The only thing you have is to distract from what is happening on the field now and keep on pushing "upside". I don't think 2 years will be long enough for McCarthy's "upside" to be developed to where he finally is a better QB than McNamara. It is very, very hard to change the character of a person. Impatience doesn't change as quickly as we'd like it to. It takes years. That word "upside" has been used over and over by fans who want to escape from what they see happening in the player they have pinned huge, unrealistic hopes on. Way too many fans have pinned huge hopes on the most popular player on the team, i.e., the back up QB. Well, that back up has been in this year, and what everyone thought they were going to see from JJ McCarthy JUST ISN'T HAPPENING. So what do they do? Go the the fall-back position of talking about "upside, " and "higher ceiling". They'll keep doing that until the honeymoon over the back up QB wears off. And the beginnings of that honeymoon being over started last Saturday night with that agonizing passing game against the very, very bad passing defense of Michigan St.
You say, " I think McNamara was better at understanding the field better." You should have had the word "much" in that, i.e., "was MUCH better at understanding". I am astounded at this phenomenon of escapism in sports fans with the players they fantasize over. Escapism is found in all kinds of forms. It sports fans it shows in how the fantasize how certain players will do. Remember all the fantasies about Joe Milton---he will win 2 Heisman's and at least one National Championship at Michigan? Remember how any times that was said? And it was all because he could throw a football 70 yards at age 15. Escapism in sports fans would be an interesting study in a psych class.
Looooong reply. It seemed like it one downhill after a singular truth:
Delete"It should be obvious he is better than McNamara."
Indeed.
I would to see one single person who predicted 2 Heisman's for Milton LOL. Was that Mom?
If you think "upside" and "high ceiling" are invalid concepts, then there's really nothing more to argue about. Those are factors in decision-making the whole way: recruiting, playing time, and who starts. Coaches all across America are seeking ways to get their highest-potential guys playing time so they gain experience and start to realize that potential. To deny that is to reveal either delusion, or a desire to simply argue for argument's sake. I'm guessing the latter: some people *love* to be contrarians, and anonymous discussion forums give them a great forum in which to be just that.
Delete"Michigan's red zone execution is pretty terrible."
ReplyDeleteMichigan needs Cade McNamara back in to remedy that.
Not sure if you missed it but McBurrows was not the only Wolverine in the tunnel. Gemon Green was also there and was beaten over the head by an MSU player with a helmet while another MSU player held and punched him. Green was headed up the tunnel early to meet his father.
ReplyDeleteCorum was awesome. It was one of his best games, maybe his best ever. He generated a ton of yardage on his own on Saturday.
ReplyDeleteIt's rare that I can say this with Thunder's posts because it's usually the exact opposite - but I agree with the RB take and just about nothing else.
Corum is exceptional for sure!
Delete"but I still feel like the Buckeyes look like the superior team"
ReplyDeleteThat's my sense as well. Not by a wide margin, as they've been in the past, but enough so to give Michigan problems, particularly with the game in Columbus this year. But it'll be a helluva match up if both are undefeated going in.
The tunnel thing: there's a lot of effort going into apportioning some responsibility to either the tunnel itself, or Green/McBurrows. I don't think either of those lines of argument will yield much. The needle seems to be tipping heavily towards MSU, the players involved, and the general posture of the program, especially in the wake of the Dantonio years. The suspension of the eight players -- effective immediately, and lasting as long as the investigation, from what I understand -- along with the official words coming from Michigan State, indicate to me this is being taken very seriously. I doubt criminal charges will be brought, but the threat of civil action will force the lawyers to go behind closed doors and hammer out a resolution. Some money will change hands, but I doubt the details will be made widely available.
By the way, the 'culture' at Michigan State is not a new thing, nor even just from the Dantonio years. I attended MSU back in the late 1970s, and even then there was a pervasive sense of insecurity about MSU vs. UM, and it manifested as aggressive defiance, relative to the times back then. The overall culture has coarsened considerably since then, and MSU's culture inside the program reflects that in part.
DeleteThe saying goes that 'winning solves everything.' That's certainly true. Michigan State no doubt still recalls the heady years when MSU was a recognized power, and Michigan was in the desert. The general perception I pick up is that Mel Tucker may not be able to right the ship. They're 3-5 right now, with probable losses at Illinois and Penn State, and maybe even Rutgers and Indiana. Losing begets losing, and MSU will have a tough time in the next several years. That eats away at the morale of a team.
You must be way busy to have missed the timeline in the tunnel. Hopefully it’s because you are still alive.
ReplyDeleteRemembering the pick route that we ran for Wheatley some years back, we know that at least for our tight ends as receivers we have complex routes in the playbook. I have to assume that we have them for our outs as well. So, I have to think we are choosing not to run them, red zone.
I’ve heard complaints about poor route running which I mostly can’t see because … television. But I am willing to consider seriously for the reason that with limited minutes of practice, there is an opportunity cost to be considered on a receiver group that blocks so we’ll downfield.
Then there is the Sparty thing to consider. Harbaugh finally said the thing out loud that the entire BIG has known for years, Sparty is a dirty football team. Running your clearly superior starting Qb into a compressed area to take goal line hits might not be the smartest thing you can do. Particularly when you are dominating defensively as well as along your own offensive line. Get your three, come back again the next time.
Finally, the single most profound “Sparty Noooo!!!” moment in the history of the meme.
Anyone around here for any period of time knows that I have respected and have even liked Sparty. I have pointed out stuff that they have done that I admired … probably most notably their tackling, which is in decline under Tucker, by the way.
Unfortunately, the entirety of that program is built on the foundation of hating us.
Then, Dantonio and Harbaugh share one core philosophy, and that is they want to dominate physically. Most football coaches pay lip service to that, but Dantonio and Harbaugh practice it with the expectation of seeing it manifest in games. We physically dominated them at every position. This was a very soundly applied physical ass kicking. They snapped and revealed themselves for what they are at their core. And not just in the state this time, where there is some chance that part of the audience will appreciate the hate, as is easy to hear coming from sports radio the last couple days. They revealed themselves as haters to even the casual fan across the country and as such are reaping a hater’s reward.
Envy is poisonous. Sparty has poisoned himself.
Shame on you Sparty!
I have no hope that they can fix themselves.
Roanman
Delete"Unfortunately, the entirety of that program is built on the foundation of hating us."
DeleteWhen do you suppose that started? It was present when I attended Michigan State back in the late 1970s. But was it present in the 1960s, when Michigan State was better than Michigan? Across the whole of both teams' history, it's clear Michigan has the more stellar football story, but I wonder if earlier on that kind of hatred existed.
Green needs to turn his head, challenge the pass as a turnover threat ... being in great position isn't good enough when the QB makes the throw, and the WR can make a play
ReplyDeleteI don’t disagree here, but stud wide receiver with the physical tools to maybe continue to be a stud at the next level. That guy ias an outstanding WR.
DeleteI'll live with it. Green's a very good corner. Sometimes "when a QB makes the throw and WR makes a play" you get beat. That's football and was the case with Woodson too. (Not saying Green is Woodson to be clear.) It was true with Denard and Hemingway too. Sometimes good offense beats great defense. As long as it's not happening frequently it's fine.
DeleteOn Coleman's receptions, I had more issue with Paige getting there late and being ineffectual after he arrived than anything Green didn't do. It did seem like Minter adjusted and Moore was all over things in the 2nd half.
.........
I don't like that the UM game continues to be some kind of showcase for MSU WRs. Suddenly some JAG is an NFL stud? Coleman was excellent and I don't want to take away the credit he deserved entirely, but we seemed to focus on getting Reed locked down and I think MSU wisely used their 2nd guy. He won some jump balls - congrats - he stepped up but I'm not sure he's a stud or that jump balls are a sustainable strategy for him but to be an NFL player he has to be getting separation. I'm more impressed by guys who have been able to beat Green/Turner with their routes than what Coleman did.
It's well established that the fade route isn't efficient or sustainable way to score in the end zone. Jumpballs are pretty, they can win you ball games when things break right, but they aren't a sustainable strategy and it was infuriating the Hoke seemed to recruit WRs who were tall and slow in hopes of utilizing jumpballs more heavily.
I’d say at least going back to Biggie Munn days when Sparty first applied to join the conference and we attempted to block their application
ReplyDeleteRoanman
DeleteI agree that Ohio State is better than Michigan right now. Not because of their improved defense but more because of our own red zone problem. The key battle will be Michigan DL vs Ohio State OL. If Michigan DL cannot put pressure on OSU OL, I think the red zone problem will be the difference between victory and defeat
ReplyDelete