RUSH OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #4 in rushing with 250 yards per game. They're slightly lower at #8 with 5.65 yards per carry. Running back Blake Corum has 1,187 yards on 199 attempts and has scored 16 total touchdowns. Backup Donovan Edwards has 41 carries for 324 yards over the past three weeks, including two 100-yard games. Last week's performance was particularly impressive considering left tackle Ryan Hayes missed the game, left guard Trevor Keegan was hurt for part of the contest, and right tackle Trente Jones has been out for the past several weeks. Michigan's dominance of Rutgers took place minus three starters up front. Nebraska, meanwhile, is #107 in rushing defense (182.9 yards allowed/game) and allows 4.51 yards per carry, which is #99. They have done better in recent weeks by tamping down explosive running games of Illinois and Minnesota (neither team has topped 4.0 yards/carry), but Minnesota was missing its starting quarterback, which allowed the Cornhuskers to focus on running back Mo Ibrahim. Junior middle linebacker Luke Reimer (6'1", 225) leads the team with 67 tackles, but the second leading tackler, safety Myles Farmer, will miss the game due to disciplinary issues. Sophomore safety Marques Buford, Jr. (5'11", 190) has 62 tackles and sophomore nickel Isaac Gifford (6'1", 200) has 52, meaning three of the top four tacklers are in the secondary. Junior edge Garrett Nelson (6'4", 245) is the most dangerous edge defender on the team with 45 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #93 in passing offense (215.7 yards/game) but #25 in passing efficiency. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had his lowest completion percentage of the season (48.1%) with just 5.6 yards per attempt, but he threw for 151 total yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. It seemed as though McCarthy fell a little too much in love with tight end Luke Schoonmaker (2 catches, 16 yards), forcing the ball to him a few times when other guys were open. Wideout Ronnie Bell (41 catches, 525 yards, 1 TD) remains the leading receiver, but Michigan did try to spread the ball out to youngsters like Andrel Anthony, Tyler Morris, and Amorion Walker with the injury absence of Roman Wilson. Those attempts weren't fruitful but may pay off down the line with those experiences. Michigan allows 1.11 sacks per game, which is #19 in the country. Nebraska takes quarterbacks down 1.67 times per game, which is tied for #95. The leading sacker is Nelson with 4.5. Nebraska is hanging out at #104 in passing defense (258.1 yards allowed/game) and sits at #74 in passer rating defense. On the back end, Nebraska has made 7 interceptions and returned those 7 takeaways for 17 yards total . . . and all 17 yards came from Farmer, who is not playing on Saturday. So the guys who are available have a combined 6 interceptions for 0 yards. That may mean nothing, but I tend to think it shows how little explosiveness they have in the defensive backfield. Junior cornerback Quinton Newsome (6'1", 180) leads the team with 8 pass breakups.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #1 nationally in rush defense (72.4 yards allowed/game) and #3 in yards allowed per carry (2.6). They're #41 in tackles for loss, which indicates to me that they're not extremely explosive up front but they're tackling well for short gains or no gain. Inside linebacker Junior Colson had a quiet week last week with just 2 stops, but he leads the team with 61 tackles. Fellow inside linebacker Michael Barrett did not have a quiet game against Rutgers (4 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 TD), but he's still way behind as the #2 tackler with 37. Edge defenders Mike Morris (11 tackles for loss) and Jaylen Harrell (5.5 TFLs) lead Michigan at stopping opponents in the backfield. Nebraska is #75 in rushing offense (143.2 yards/game) and #82 in yards per carry (3.94). Junior running back Anthony Grant (5'11", 200) gets the vast majority of carries (177) and has 858 yards, an average of 4.85 per attempt. With starting quarterback Casey Thompson out due to an elbow injury, whichever backup quarterback(s) play may factor more into the run game. Chubba Purdy (6'2", 210) has 2 rushing touchdowns in backup duty, and Logan Smothers (6'2", 190) is averaging a respectable 3.4 yards per attempt on limited carries.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #9 in passing defense (170 yards allowed/game), #5 in touchdowns allowed (7), and #2 in passer rating defense. Despite notching 2 interceptions last week against Rutgers, the Wolverines are #51 in interceptions with 8 so far this year. Cornerback Gemon Green was held out last week after the tunnel incident against Michigan State, but D.J. Turner II and freshman Will Johnson held their own on the outside last week, admittedly against a poor passing offense. Green should return this week. Michigan is #9 in sacks per game (3.2), led by Mike Morris with 7.5. (For reference, last year at this time, Aidan Hutchinson had 7.0 sacks.) Nebraska is #58 in passing offense (243.9 yards/game) and #73 in passing efficiency. However, backup quarterbacks Purdy and Smothers have combined for 22 completions on 47 attempts with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Junior LSU transfer Trey Palmer (53 catches, 819 yards, and 5 touchdowns) is the #1 target and he ranks #3 in the conference in yards and #7 in yards per reception (15.45). Senior tight end Travis Vokolek (6'7", 260) may get more targets with the backup quarterbacks playing; he has 18 catches for 220 yards, including a 56-yard touchdown against Illinois a couple weeks ago. The Cornhuskers are #104 in sacks allowed per game (2.89). They seem to do a great job of bringing in mammoth 6'9" or 6'10" linemen, but they can't seem to figure out how to teach them to block.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Nebraska players recruited by Michigan include OT Bryce Benhart, DT Ru'quan Buckley, TE Thomas Fidone, CB Jaeden Gould, WR Kamonte Grimes, LB Ernest Hausmann, S Tyreke Johnson, WR Omar Manning, WR Oliver Martin, WR Marcus Washington, DT Stephon Wynn, Jr.
- Nebraska players from the state of Michigan include: DT Ru'quan Buckley (Godwin Heights), LB Chris Kolarevic (Traverse City St. Francis), LS Camden Witucki (Grand Blanc)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On October 9, 2021, Michigan won a nail-biter by a score of 32-29
- S Brad Hawkins forced Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez to fumble and Hawkins picked it up to set up the game-winning field goal
- RB Blake Corum and RB Hassan Haskins combined for 34 carries, 212 yards, and 3 touchdowns on the ground
- WR Daylen Baldwin led Michigan with 6 catches for 64 yards
- K Jake Moody made 4/4 field goals
PREDICTION
- Michigan 45, Nebraska 9
I think you're being generous with the score. Nebraska D is a horrible matchup for Harball
ReplyDeleteFloodgates!
Well, when you have JJ McCarthy at QB, you better keep the Michigan score down. And as it turns out, Thunder's prediction wasn't near low enough.
DeleteBut continue on in your JJ delusions.
I was worried about this one before the season. I was wrong.
ReplyDeleteme too, but being in A2 was reassuring
DeleteSooooo, about that JJ. You all so how inaccurate he is. But I know, the receiver didn't catch em. Got it.
ReplyDeleteTruth is Cade McNamara is a better QB than JJ McCarthy. The passing game is bad. And it's not the coaching, the weather, the play calling, or anything else. It's JJ McCarthy. But yeah, he meditates, and he knows who's turn it is to buy Chik-fil-A. Go Blue!
There was time (was it Maryland?) when you used to compare the h2h results against the same program.
DeleteLet's check how the QBs looked against Rutgers
QBR 65, 168 yards, 0 TD, 9/16 for 10 YPA with offense scoring 20 points
vs
QBR 88, 157 yards, 3 TD, 13/27 for 6 YPA with offense scoring 52 points
Let's check how the QBs looked against Nebraska
DeleteQBR 70, 240 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 22/38 for 7 YPA with offense scoring 32 points
vs
QBR 50, 121 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 8/17 for 8 YPA with offense scoring 34 points
Let's check how the QBs looked against MSU
DeleteQBR 86, 406 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 28/44 for 8 YPA with offense scoring 33 points
vs
QBR 65, 217 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 15/25 for 7 YPA with offense scoring 29 points
That you've given up on providing any evidence for the claims that Cade is clearly a better QB is telling.
DeleteMichigan's passing game is #93 in the Nation. Try to razzle dazzle that away. Michigan's passing game is bad, and JJ is the centerpiece of it.
DeleteYou mean in passing yards? LOL Last year they passed for 228 yards a game - this year they are passing for 209 yards a game.
DeleteLast year they threw 9 INTs in 14 games. This year they've thrown 3 in 10 games.
Compared to last year the pass offense is slightly less productive but more efficient and less turnover prone. If it is bad this year it was horrendous last year, and Cade was the centerpiece of it.
What else you got?
I assume you would agree that Michigan's rushing offense is much better with JJ playing at QB, yes?
DeleteOSU has RB depth concerns that don't seem to be very concerning. Per 11 Warriors:
ReplyDelete"In the Indiana game, former walk-on Xavier Johnson and true freshman Dallan Hayden were Ohio State's next two options beyond Henderson and Williams. Both made big plays for the Buckeyes even before Williams' exit. Johnson took a pass play out of the backfield 34 yards on a big gain in the first quarter, and Hayden scored a 14-yard touchdown on his first carry of the contest.
Ohio State will hope to return Henderson and Williams quickly, but Johnson and Hayden's performances against Indiana provide the confidence they can pick things up on the fly. However, depth at running back has quickly become an even bigger concern for the Buckeyes, who have dealt with injuries at the position since the preseason. "
They were so close! That conclusion could be seen as entirely backward given the above statement. OSU has dealt with injuries but not been affected on the field. That will keep being the case. The "concern" shouldn't be.
Moot point for us. Williams and Henderson will both be back for the Game. Count on that.