Hail to the Victors! It is truly incredible what this team, these coaches, and these players have accomplished over the past couple years. Michigan is 25-2 in that span. Back in the olden days, a 13-0 record would be good enough to be voted a national champion. Regardless of what happens in the College Football Playoff, this team is a national championship-caliber squad. Furthermore, Jim Harbaugh has cemented himself as one of the best coaches in modern football. If I had to name a top three, it would include Harbaugh, Urban Meyer (ugh), and Nick Saban (ugh again). Harbaugh has taken over struggling program after struggling program and made them elite, from Stanford to the San Francisco 49ers to Michigan. A lot of coaches are in the right place at the right time, including guys like Jimbo Fisher, Gene Chizik, Ed Orgeron, etc. to make once-in-a-lifetime runs and then fall off precipitously. There are very few who can consistently redirect a program wherever they go, and Harbaugh is one of them.
Hit the jump for more.
What concerns do I have? I actually have several concerns about this team going into the College Football Playoff, but it doesn't take away from what they have already accomplished.
- The absence of Blake Corum: Donovan Edwards (25 carries, 185 yards, 1 TD) had a great game, but his injured right hand causes some issues. And frankly I'm surprised he has yet to fumble in the past two games, because he's carrying the ball rather loosely in his non-dominant left hand. If I'm one of the other CFP teams - namely TCU for now - I'm spending some extra practice time practicing ripping at the ball. Luckily, Edwards has some time to heal up, so hopefully his hand is close to full strength by that time. And as much of a big-play threat as Edwards is, he's not the pile pusher that Corum is. Michigan's situation reminds me of Alabama in 2021 when they were extremely explosive until wide receiver Jameson Williams tore his ACL, and then things went down the tubes.
- The absence of Mike Morris: It's unfortunate two of Michigan's positional league MVPs got injured right at the end of the season. Along with Corum, Morris also suffered a leg injury. His absence has negatively affected not only Michigan's pass rush but also its run defense. I would guess that Morris will be back by the time Michigan plays TCU, but I wish he was healthy.
- J.J. McCarthy's inconsistent play: I am going to lob the same criticism at McCarthy that I lobbed at Denard Robinson. You might look at the overall numbers and say McCarthy is an accurate passer (65.3% on the season), but he's throwing the ball behind receivers, taking them off their feet, etc. and not giving a ton of room to run after the catch. Yes, of course there have been exceptions like when Cornelius Johnson had a ton of YAC against Ohio State, but some of those throws are to wide open receivers who get open because of the threat of the run game. McCarthy made some nice throws - the TD to Colston Loveland, the TD to Ronnie Bell - but he also makes some very poor throws. His accuracy was good early in the season, but during the second half of the year, something went funky. He finished 11/17 for 161 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception in this game. I still think there's a lot of room for improvement in his game.
The tackling seemed bad, didn't it? I generally did not think Michigan took Purdue lightly, but this was perhaps the worst tackling game of Michigan's season. Is it a coincidence that it happened a week after the Ohio State game? Maybe. I thought Michigan did a great job of tackling wide receiver Charlie Jones, even though he had 13 catches for 162 yards. But some of the tackling on other guys was shoddy. Credit goes to Purdue's guys, who are tough to bring down and look like they work hard in the weight room. But if Michigan plays Georgia in the CFP, they're going to need to tackle better than they did against Purdue.
Will Johnson looks like a stud. Thank goodness for Will Johnson, who had 2 interceptions and just looks like a dude. And thank goodness for the fact that his dad went to Michigan, because otherwise, Michigan doesn't often seem to get kids who look like that. Johnson looks like a kid who would normally be suiting up for Alabama or Georgia, and Michigan fans get the chance to watch him in a winged helmet. It's been a long time - probably since Charles Woodson - that a corner came in who just immediately looked like a guy who could hold up. Johnson did have a pass interference penalty called against him that I totally didn't mind, because I would rather him take a 15-yarder than give up a long touchdown.
My thoughts go out to Aiden O'Connell. I've really liked watching Purdue quarterback Aiden O'Connell the past couple seasons. He's accurate, smart, and has touch and toughness. It's unfortunate that his brother passed away a week ago, and my hat's off to him for the way he has performed since. He completed 32/47 passes for 366 yards, and even though he threw 2 interceptions and 0 touchdowns, I thought he played very well. As a pure passer, he's the second best quarterback in the Big Ten behind Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.
I'm looking forward to digging in on TCU. I've admired TCU's program from afar for a long time. Even though Gary Patterson is no longer there, they continue to achieve great things for what that school is. It's hard to "overachieve" for this long. I like quarterback Max Duggan and receiver Quentin Johnston, and Michigan has a legitimate challenge on its hands. It's nice to see a different opponent in a bowl/playoff game that we don't see much of on a national stage.
Hail to the Victors! Regardless of the playoff this was a great season. Anything from here is gravy.
ReplyDeleteOne of my favorite moments from yesterday was the 7OL/2TE formation (including former OL Honigford at TE). There was some fun play calls on both sides last night. Purdue came to play - that's a likable team even though they aren't all that talented.
Agree on Harbaugh -- but I think we knew that 5 years ago. My "top 3" was that same top 3 at that point and nothing has really changed except each of them has further solidified their already impressive resumes. Ryan Day seems to be chipping in to Meyer's and Harbaugh's.
Also agree on TCU. 9 seems like an inflated line TBH. Still the matchup you want though.
As for the concerns:
JJ - his decision-making and his pocket elusiveness have been amazing. He's a sophomore performing at a VERY high level. There's going to be improvement, like with any young player. Unlike OConnell he's not relying on a bunch of dump offs and short passes. He's being asked to throw the ball down the field and on the run consistently. I'm not worried.
Morris - dressed for OSU so I assume he'll be there in the playoff. Key player but until we hear otherwise I think we should assume he'll be healthy for the playoff.
Corum - Corum is special and will be missed but we have ONE HELL of a replacement in Edwards. Edwards might fumble but for now I think we can just add it to the queue near the pile of RB worries that haven't come to fruition. Over the last year we've heard the following things:
-We'll miss Hassan Haskins because of his ability to "push the pile" and run between the tackles.
-We'll miss Hassan Haskins in short yardage situation
-Corum is too small
-Corum is ineffective between the tackles
-Edwards is ineffective between the tackles
-Edwards is more of a WR than a RB
-Depth is a problem (pretty much every week)
These have been REPEATEDLY disproved, at every instance.
Haskins hasn't been missed. At all. He had a great year in 2021 but just like Cade he was replaced by better players.
Corum is awesome - but also hasn't been missed. Not in 2021 when he went out nor in 2022.
Corum, our supposed offensive MVP, hasn't seemed to hold back the offense when he isn't around. Like Corum stepping in for Haskins, Edwards has stepped in for Corum. Just like he did last year. They're all different players with different skills but when your OL is so good you can cater to them. And Edwards, who was supposedly a pass catcher first and foremost -- seems to be a star even with only one hand available to catch with.
I thought Stokes would be next man up but it turns out it is Mullings - who played well and looked the part yesterday. We're back to Thunder and Lightning after Lightning and Lightning worked out great also.
Someday RB will be a problem for Michigan but for all the ceaseless handwringing about RB characteristics, depth, and health -- RB continues to be the least of Michigan's problems.
Tackling -- I agree that Michigan had it's worst day of the year yesterday. I won't worry unless we see it back against TCU.
I'll share one of my own worries (not just this year but if he's on the team next year too) - Eyabi Okie seems like a ticking time bomb. I love giving a kid a second chance but he seems very immature out there and it's a pattern. From post game celebrations to post play celebrations his behavior is eye brow raising. Hasn't been a problem yet, but given his track record I'm concerned. Yesterday an OLmen on Purdue got a personal foul flag but Okie really was the one who probably deserved it IMO.
Pass protection - our OL is great and they are never going to be perfect on every play but JJ is having to bail and create way too often. It's going to be a lot tougher to run around like JJ has been doing against Georgia, if Michigan ends up facing them.
One more thought -- people are sleeping on OSU's chances to upset Georgia IMO. They'll probably get some folks back on offense that can make an impact. Most notably JSN. And every analytics and gambling pundit agrees OSU would be favored in a rematch.
DeleteIt's telling that OSU's odds for a title are barely behind Michigan's even though they face Georgia. They got their asses handed to them in Columbus but OSU is still a really good team and legitimate threat to end the season as national champs. I wish it wasn't the case and that we crushed their championship hopes last week but with the playoffs it's not how it works anymore.
With over a month to address their embarrassment vs Michigan, time to get healthy, and with Urban Meyer available to help them come up with answers -- OSU remains a scary opponent. If they have their RBs back, JSN back, and start using Stroud in the run game, even Georgia will be threatened.
[Georgia is scarier, granted, but the OSU/GA winner will be favored against the UM/TCU winner regardless of what happens.]
Not me, I actually think ohio will win. They're built for THIS matchup, not ours. And, UGa has slept through parts of games all year, and may not be as fired up as their vengeful attack on us last year
DeleteIf we rematch, I don't think their D can stop us for 4Q, and that has been proven twice in the last 12mos ... but they can outscore is. Day wanted so badly to out tough us, that he left favorable matchups untouched all game. From the stands, we could see Saint lined up outside the Slot all game, yet they rarely went to it (the TD was one easy giveaway) ...If Day plays his game, and not Woody's/Bo's/Harbaugh's/Meyer's, we'll have an unlikely chance at keeping up
I think we replaced a Heisman with a 5star. Edwards can't do what Corum can do, but is bound to bust a big run. The only way he can do what HH did is to commit to the goal, like Corum did
DeleteWe have no one else who can come even close, and playing a guy at LB & RB in the conference championship shows that who is back there does actually matter, even behind an elite OL
@JE
DeleteInteresting/hot take on the buckeyes over georgia. I like it. Not sure I agree, I see Georgia as an even better version of Michigan - but I like it.
I actually think if Day wanted to win a rematch he'll have to follow Urban Meyer's model - reestablish the ground game but use the QB as part of the answer. And THEN you go hit those crazy WRs over the top. Meyer brought in Day because of his passing offense but he's taken it too far. It's not like Kevin Wilson doesn't know how to do this stuff though. There's an optimized version of OSU that is terrifying to any defense.
We put in a LB in at RB and it worked - because our OL is that good.
DeleteWe outphysicalled OSU with a RB you've claimed can't move the pile and falls over a blade of grass and isn't a good RB and is mostly a WR - because our OL is that good.
We've gone through 3 different primary RBs in 12 months. Each, supposedly, had flaws or limitations that prevented them from being THAT GUY. But when put in that role each of them were indeed THAT GUY because being THAT GUY is a team/OL thing more than it's a that guy thing.
Georgia will bring their A game against OSU.
DeleteWe did put a LB back there!
DeleteWe put a LB in ahead of two scholarship RBs and a walkon who was given opportunities all year. Almost like, the coaches agree who gets these trusted carries matters
@JE. Even if they had 7 identical twins in the backfield they would have to pick one of them to give the ball to. Doesn't prove a thing.
DeleteMullings play RB in the spring - then back to backup LB where he was more valuable - now back to RB after Rolder proved himself and multiple backs got hurt. BTW there's a rumor that Stokes had a concussion.
Throwing a LB back there and watching him do fine proves it doesn't matter. As does every RB who matters disappearing and suddenly being replaced by another RB (who supposedly wasn't good enough) but now THAT guy matters. Alrighty.
I'll go back to my usual response re. the RBs, which is that RBs matter against the top end of the competition, but not nearly as much as you go up against teams with less talent. It was quite evident in the OSU game that Stokes was in over his head - two carries in the first half that resulted in ~6 yards total that Corum likely takes for 20-30. Edwards is a different kind of back relative to Corum - more likely to turn a 30 yard gain into 60 but less likely to turn a 2 yard gain into 6. Against TCU I'd rather have Corum, but honestly I'm not so sure that I wouldn't rather have Edwards against Georgia. In addition (and again, absolutely nothing against Corum) but I think I'd rather have a healthy Morris the rest of the way than a healthy Corum - essentially a "value over replacement" type of argument.
DeleteI think we can all agree that the OL is the backbone of all of this. I'm just not going to go as far as to say "RBs don't matter" when I think we have one of (if not the best) guy in the country in Edwards to combat a team like UGA with NFL talent all over the place.
"I think we have one of (if not the best) guy in the country in Edwards to combat a team like UGA"
DeleteThat's fine but people also said "it's because of Haskins - he makes a big difference" and then they said "it's because of Corum - he makes a big difference" and now you're saying "it's because of Edwards - he makes a big difference".
"All RBs are good" is a close cousin to "RBs don't matter"
Not what I'm saying at all. Haskins was a good player and was the right guy to grind out yards against OSU in the snow. It's not obvious to me that a similarly talented back couldn't have come close to replicating that performance. He's also not going to be my top choice to beat a team like Georgia. In a potential matchup against Georgia, Edwards is a massive difference maker. If you're doing a TTB-like "countdown" of player importance in a potential UM / UGA game, Edwards is in my top 5.
DeleteI think Corum is a rare back who makes a difference, but I can't prove that with any empirical evidence. I think he's better than Edwards and I think he was better than Haskins too.
DeleteThat's the issue - we're talking about feelings. Feelings and opinions are dubious if we can't prove them or demonstrate them. Everyone has feelings and opinions - even raving lunatics.
Feelings are ESPECIALLY dubious when we're having them based on one or two instances - a handful of carries for example - like you're doing with Stokes (or even a few dozen over the course of a season).
There's a million other examples but I'll give one specific example.
Donovan Edwards fell over/tripped on a carry last year. People concluded he wasn't a good RB and had issues with balance. He only had a handful of meaningful carries at that point so we didn't have much to counter this perspective, other than the coaches confidence in him and recruiting rankings (both of which are far from definitive).
One year later and Donovan Edwards fell over/tripped again - against OSU. Nobody cares. Immediately dismissed and forgotten. We have over 100 meaningful carries in the year to know that that one time was an anomaly and not an indicator of a problem.
In both cases Edwards tripped once. In one year, our consensus FEELINGS seem to be that it's irrelevant. In the other our (not consensus but popular) FEELINGS said this was a definitive problem.
One can argue a CHANGE happened at some point in that year between trip events, but one can also issue it's purely an issue of sample size. (Edwards will fall about once a year.) Sometimes people trip - even Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins and Barry Sanders trip sometimes, we just dismiss it as a blip.
Another example - Corum's freshman year. It was statistically unexceptional. Some people watched this and hyped him up as difference maker. I said it was the most impressive freshman year we've seen in a while. Others looked at the result and questioned the hype. On either side, these were ultimately just FEELINGS. Those can really go either way. If we had more data than 20-whatever carries we probably would have known more. Instead we were down to feelings and opinions.
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2021/08/2021-season-countdown-17-blake-corum.html
We'll never know if Stokes looked unimpressive in those 2 carries because it's JUST 2 random bad carries (a bad day), because he's not good forever, because he's not good against better competition, or because he's not good YET. He's had other carries where he looked real good earlier in the year and others where he looked mediocre. Who knows besides the coaches who see him in practice every day.
The reason that I think sample size is probably the issue in the other direction is that you've seen guys who shine in small samples tend to drop off dramatically when they are given more opportunities.
Dubious conclusions are easy to draw. You can catch Steph Curry missing a free throw. You can snap a photo of a supermodel on a day she's hungover or sick. Doesn't mean he can't shoot or she isn't gorgeous. But if that's all you saw...
"Haskins was a good player and was the right guy to grind out yards against OSU in the snow. It's not obvious to me that a similarly talented back couldn't have come close to replicating that performance. "
DeleteWho says we needed to grind out yards in the snow? Edwards had an 8 yard carry (between the tackles) and was our leading receiver out of the backfield. Corum, playing hurt, averaged 14 ypc.
This year, OSU's defense was better and focused on stopping the run from the outset, and Edwards gashed them with big plays.
I'm not disputing that they are different backs but to argue that one style was necessary to win seems to fly in the face of recent evidence.
And it tends to go the other way too. Corum and Haskins were supposed to be "Thunder and Lightning" - i.e., different backs with different skills - but when MSU made a point to stuff the run they bottled up both Blake and Hassan pretty equally.
Deletehttps://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401282777
And then we threw all 3 of our backs at Georgia and they all did about the same too:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401331234
That's definitely small sample size stuff, but it's very common. This is how it tends to go when you come up against elite defenses (or defenses determined to stop one facet of the offense) they don't just shut down one guy but the whole group.
I mean at some point this all boils down to "feelings" - we haven't played Georgia this year so we're conjecturing as to the personnel / strategies that are going to be most effective. I'm not sure as to the point that you're trying to make here. In a potential matchup against Georgia, is Edwards an extremely important piece or are you comfortable rolling with Stokes / Mullings / etc.?
DeleteSome things are feelings and somethings are backed up by more than that - statistics, recognition/awards, and more detailed player evaluations (like mgoblog, PFF, draft analysts, coaches comments, etc) build a case to support or refute. For example, I think it's more than "feelings" to say Olu Oluwatimi is difference maker vs somebodies take on CJ Stokes' 50 carries.
DeleteI think Edwards is a top 5 piece on offense because of the current depth chart and injuries that have occurred... and because he is special as a pass catcher (hopefully the cast is off). I don't think it really matters if Mullings is available or not because Stokes/Dunlap/Gash are all guys who can do some stuff and not do other stuff just like him.
If there's a playoff TTB rankings for offense I would put it like this.
1. McCarthy
2. Oluwatimi
3. Edwards
4. Schoonmacher
5. Zinter
I'd probably put at least 5 guys (Morris, Smith, Colston, Barrett, Moore, Paige, Johnson, Turner) ahead of Edwards given the roster around them.
I'll agree with you that to beat Georgia (or OSU for a third time in 14 months) we'll need our best guys and small differences (like Edwards' speed) that might not matter in some contexts are more likely to matter in these critical ones.
The point I'm making is that Corum's absence doesn't seem to be missed. For all the hand-wringing about Haskins - Corum replaced him, and maybe served as an upgrade. For all the hand-wringing about Corum - Edwards replaced him without any dip in production.
With Corum and Haskins - Michigan ran for 7.2 ypc vs OSU. Without them - Michigan ran for 7.2 ypc vs OSU. People say it matters (and in this case I'm sympathetic) but the results seem to argue otherwise.
Of course one can argue that THIS TIME, FOR REAL, IT REALLY WILL MATTER if Edwards isn't available. And maybe they are right. I don't really care to find out - most positions will struggle if they go down 2 guys at the same exact position. But I don't know for a fact that it would be a problem or maybe CJ Stokes or Kaleel Mullings will get 25 carries and run for 120 yards and 3 TDs against OSU and be "next man up" if we play OSU again -- or if they'll struggle just like Haskins and Corum did against Georgia last year.
I think it's weird to say that running backs don't matter when Haskins got drafted in the 4th round (not a common event for a Michigan running back), Corum is thought to be a 2nd/3rd rounder, and Donovan Edwards was a 5-star. It's also possible that Michigan just got better (or hit some luck) at identifying and finding running back talent. Both Corum and Edwards are/were elite high school talents.
DeleteThe RB recruit for many years was questionable.
The "identical twins" comment is interesting. In 2020, we had 4 NFL-bound RBs, and the carries were distributed fairly equal
DeleteIn 2021 we had lost two of those guys, and the carries shifted toward HH, with BC a clear #2. Edwards played, but once in B1G play, his carries went down until BC went down ... at which point he was a receiving threat & decoy, with barely a handful of carries
2022 lost HH, but returned BC & three off seasons under Ben Herbert (pretty good at his job). BC himself boasts of weight room & weight gained, with the obvious goal of being RB1. Edwards improved, but as a poster mentioned last weekend, JH might cringe a little when Edwards breaks a big one, because the offense is designed to wear down opponents, not get their offense right back on the field
Has our production dropped off from HH, to BC? No, we got better because BC improved his strength & kept most of his speed. Did production drop off when BC went down? No, because we replaced a Heisman candidates with a 5star. Harbaugh had three NFL RBs, and deserves credit for recruiting & developing them
Do RBs matter? I believe so, because despite these three stars, we see change. After Haskins left, we see a lot less Counters (our staple in 2021). When Corum went down, MICHIGAN all but lost its ability for long sustained drives
On the other hand, we lost Steuber & Vastardis after 2021 ... and our OL hot better. We lost all but Zinter & Olu throughout 2022, and saw no dropoff. We also saw no schematic change, or statistical variance in the absence of as many as 60% of our elite OL. That doesn't mean OL don't matter, but that we are (finally) recruiting & developing at a level to compete with anyone in the country
*as far as TTB offense rankings for the playoffs, I'd go:
1) JJ
2) Olu
3) Zinter
4) Edwards
5) tossup between several
***interesting that where we differ here is that I place the RB at lower value than the All-Conference Right Guard
@Thunder
DeleteIt doesn't matter where Haskins got drafted if he doesn't do anything in the NFL. Just like it doesn't matter that Derrick Green was a 5-star prior to college. If they don't produce those are just misevaluations.
Michigan had a bunch of guys drafted back in the 80s and 90s but few of them did anything notable in the NFL - while there were a parade of all-pro and HOF linemen who were generally drafted lower than the star RBs.
Maybe you are right that Michigan just started evaluating RBs better recently (you can add Charbonnet to the mix too) - it's possible - but for now they've yet to produce an impressive NFL player.
There's still been NFL RBs on the roster constantly.
Harbaugh got Evans in 2016 before Haskins in 2018.
Hoke Era got Rawls in 2011 and Smith in 2013.
Rodriguez got Cox in 2008 and Toussaint and Robinson in 2009.
The Haskins-Charbonnet-Corum-Edwards run might be the most impressive we've had since Gary Moeller but... Tavierre Dunlap and Christian Turner have to be included in that group too. And besides Haskins none of those guys were sleepers.
@JE
DeleteEdwards was also a 5-star last year. Derrick Green was also a 5-star. And.
-------------------------------------------------
I thought about putting Zinter above Edwards but El Hadi was a top 100 recruit not ranked that far below Edwards and has proven himself as a capable backup as a soph. It's like if Corum was still healthy - he wouldn't go there in the top 5.* That Zinter is there is a testament to how good he is.
*Proven right against OSU.
"we got better because BC improved his strength & kept most of his speed." That's just feelings my man. BC's YPC went down from last year - he was already excellent.
Mine are the we got better because we replaced a former walk-on with a RIMINGTON winner and added a bunch of experience to the OL (not to mention TE and WR).
--------------------------------
It just strikes me as a pretty large coincidence that all these RBs improve the moment the starter is no longer there - whether it's the offseason loss or an injury. One minute a guy falls over a blade of grass and the next he's a 5-star getting 170 yards or getting 1st quarter carries between the tackles against OSU. One minute a guy is too small and can't run between the tackles and the next he's mini-HULK an irreplaceable pile pusher.
These problems just seem to kind of disappear the minute they might become real.
It's forever out ahead, just out of reach, like a mirage of worry.
There's always an excuse to be concerned and rationalizing when that concern evaporates. Even when a walk-on, a freshman, and converted linebacker are all that's left after an all conference Doak Walker award finalist leaves early and a future NFL draft pick gets suspended -- things are just fine. Magical.
The rationalizing can be anything
-He's a 5-star!
-He's not REALLY a walk-on
-He hulked-up!
-He got faster!
-He worked on his balance!
-He just needed someone to believe in him!
-He finally got used right!
-The old coaches didn't like him!
Corum did add strength & bulk. That's not feelings, it's his word, Harbaugh's and the handy work of our the MICHIGAN strength program. It's further backed up by the piles corum moved all year. He was electric as a TrFR, and added the "thumper" to his resume through his efforts, and the obvious design of the offense ... I think rest is just conflating things read about BC/RBs and this exchange
DeleteAnyway, we're B1G Champs again. GO BLUE
Yes, problems disappear as players get older. It's amazing. It's almost like they work to perfect their craft.
DeleteRemember how Braylon Edwards was #80 early in his career and then earned the #1 and had some drama with Lloyd Carr because of it and had some issues with drops early in his career but then was a stud in 2004, catching everything within a half-mile radius thrown by Chad Henne? I guess he was the same exact player in 2001 and no self-improvement went into his rise to stardom...
Remember how Olu Oluwatimi couldn't even get on the field at Air Force as a true freshman...and then turned into a two-time Rimington finalist in 2021 and 2022?
Remember how Blake Corum came in listed at 200 lbs. but there were questions about his durability/strength and then he showed up at 210 lbs. in 2022 and was suddenly a Heisman candidate? I bet he didn't work to put on that weight and improve or get stronger...
Guys work to get better! Yes, Edwards was a 5-star in 2021, but he was a freshman. You keep basically saying that guys are who they are, so why wasn't Tom Brady starting in 1995? Why did Josh Allen complete 52% of his passes in his rookie year when he's now well over 60% every year? As a future 1st rounder, why did Taylor Lewan redshirt in 2009 instead of playing over Mark Ortmann?
A couple of notes and a response.
DeleteBraylon Edwards #1 thing was mostly about off-field stuff and practice effort IIRC.
Donovan Edwards was a composite 4 star. He proved he was very capable of producing as a freshman when one of the top 2 guys went down.
Blake Corum as a freshman was good enough to get more carries than Chris Evans (a 5th year senior bound for the NFL) and Zach Charbonnet (a sophomore coming off leading team in rushing as a freshman).
Nobody is arguing that players don't develop or improve. That's a strawman argument. Period.
Some improvements CAN be attributed to offseason stuff at times. But when it's in-season that tells you it wasn't a physical deficiency related to balance, strength or something else.
Were Corum and Edwards deficient as freshman and sophmores? We're talking about high end recruits recruited by programs all over the country. Playing a position where freshman RBs very commonly make huge contributions (e.g., Charbonnet, Evans) - and more likely to do so if they are future pros and if there is an opportunity (created by departures or injuries) in front of them.
When the coaches give a first down carry against OSU to Donovan Edwards (with Corum and Haskins available) and tell him to run between the tackles that tells you they have faith in him as a runner between the tackles. When the coaches give Blake Corum short yardage carries (which they did do at times last year) that means they aren't worried about it. These are the people who see them in practice everyday - they know more than we do. Period.
That they give the BULK of that job to Haskins doesn't mean that Corum or Edwards are bad at it - it means that Haskins is the best at it. When they throw the ball to Edwards it doesn't mean he's bad at running.
It's leveraging strengths. Not identifying deficiencies.
When the "strengths" guy goes poof, the backup steps up and the theorized deficiencies disappear. There's always an excuse about why the deficiency really was a real deficiency at one time - offseason or no offseason.
Sometimes it's real but often it isn't.
Corum: "He was electric as a TrFR" - yes but not everyone agreed with this feeling, including Thunder. [A reasonable take if you're focused on outcomes over the subjective "eye test".] Corum wasn't generating big plays - but if you were watching you might deduce he would. Likewise Corum wasn't running as much between the tackles (because Haskins was there) - but if you were watching you might deduce he would do well. (Regardless of if he's 200 or 2010). The truth is that doubt was unwarranted. Even if you insist that it was a problem that got fixed in the offseason - there isn't any evidence he was ineffective between the tackles. In fact, it was the opposite. He just did it less often.
This isn't really limited to RBs either. The pass game was supposed to be deficient in 2021 and 2022 but Cade and JJ stepped up when they needed to. This wasn't an offseason development thing. Likewise the red zone issues that were a big problem suddenly turned out to not be a problem a few days later - again this happened in 2021 and 2022.
There are false narratives out there. It's a real thing. The takes - sometimes they are bad. The deficiencies - sometimes they are fake.
If you're talking about how fully baked a freshman is I think a RB is different than QB and CB is different than a OL. OL and DL generally requires a ton of physical development. RB and QB do not. QB requires a ton of skills development. At RB most players - and elite recruits specifically - are coming in physically mature or close to it. I mean - look at Donovan Edwards as a freshman and look at Ryan Hayes as a freshman. Show me a RB who packs on 30, 40 pounds like Josh Uche or 70 pounds like Frank Clark.
DeleteIn my opinon, the thing that Fred Jackson harped on in the program and Mike Hart continues to harp on is pass pro and blocking. That's where freshman RBs improve most as they develop because many of them weren't doing that all that much in high school (or at least it was a secondary concern relative to getting the ball to this electric/elite athlete who is substantially better than everybody else on the field).
I also think RBs can improve their "vision" - but what that really means is that they can get comfortable in the system and know how their OL is going to block and settle into the timing of the offense.
But as far as running - just pure ability with the ball - I think that mostly is what it is the same way that a CB's ability to run with a WR mostly is what it is. A CB is going to improve more on technique and hands and when to grab push shove poke.
So, bottomline is that most RBs generally AS RUNNERS come in with whatever ability they have and can be used functionally in that role. They can improve in strength sometimes, they can improve ball security, and they can improve "vision" (usually a timing/trust system thing) sometimes and certainly blocking. But a guy in the open field/space is going to do what he is going to do pretty much.
@Thunder
DeleteSetting aside your insistence on arguing with a strawman about development...
"Remember how Blake Corum came in listed at 200 lbs. but there were questions about his durability/strength and then he showed up at 210 lbs"
Remember how I disputed those questions?
Remember how he took snaps from Charbonnet and Evans as a freshman?
Remember how good he was a soph?
Remember how you doubted the hype?
Remember how Blake Corum still got hurt this year at 210?
Note the total lack of correlation between size and health that is assumed as obvious.
Remember how Fitz Toussaints YPC went down every year?
This is such a silly, drawn out argument.
DeleteBut just for fun, I'll flip it around.
If Corum and/or the coaches didn't see any need for adding weight/muscle, then why did Corum add 10 pounds in order to become the full-time running back in 2022? Someone in that equation - Herbert, Harbaugh, Hart, Corum, etc. - thought it would be a good idea for Corum to add weight in an area/profession where weight and nutrition are highly scrutinized.
You say the coaches do everything purposefully, such as giving guys 1st down carries against Ohio State (which I think is a BS point, which I'll get to in a second)...
...so what was the point of having Corum add weight if he didn't need to add weight?
As for the BS point mentioned above, coaches do things to break tendencies all the time. Giving Edwards a 1st down run between the tackles against OSU doesn't mean they think it's a great idea for Edwards to run between the tackles in a vacuum; it could mean that he caught 10 passes for 170 yards the previous week so the team is defense is going to think "PASS" and then you hit them right in the mouth with a run.
Did Donovan Edwards throw a touchdown pass against Iowa in the Big Ten championship game because he's the best passer on the team? No. In a vacuum, it makes no sense to have a running back throw a pass when you have several other better throwers of a football on the team. It only makes sense because Michigan had run similar motions/plays before where they threw a swing pass to Edwards, but THIS TIME, they knew Iowa would overreact and Michigan's staff wanted to break a tendency.
As for Corum getting hurt, that's another funny point. He only had 144 carries in 2021 and got hurt. He bulked up, and it took him an additional 100 carries (he ended up with 247 this year) before he got hurt, when people - such as me - were saying for weeks that his workload was going to get him too beaten up for the stretch run.
The fact that you take these points and claim wins for yourself is really odd. I could address several more of your points, but I don't have time to produce content AND argue with every single thing you say.
@Thunder
DeleteYou're right - you did spend all season fretting about Corum's health. You didn't spend ANY fretting about Edwards. They both got hurt. The fact that you take these points and claim wins for yourself is really odd.
Edwards got hurt in a season with 35 carries and he got hurt in a season 177 carries. Corum got hurt in a season with 144 carries and in a season with 247 carries. It's almost like injuries can happen any time and that randomness is a bigger factor than anything else.
@Thunder
DeleteTo turn your question back around on you - what was the point of not having Edwards add weight if he needed to add weight?
Edwards wasn't a good RB last year (per you) and now he is.
Someone in that equation - Herbert, Harbaugh, Hart, Corum, etc. - thought it would be a good idea for EDWARDS to NOT add weight in an area/profession where weight and nutrition are highly scrutinized.
I think Corum should have sat out the Illinois game entirely. Not because of workload. He could have had 30 carries the week before or 5 carries the week before. I don't think playing him (or McCarthy) was worth the risk of injury an a game that had no tangible impact on season goals.
Delete@ Lank 11:30 a.m.
DeletePutting on weight is not always an option. Not everyone can put on weight easily. However, people who put on weight can avoid it. Silly question. But also silly that you avoided answering my question.
@ Lank 2:19 p.m.
Your take on the Illinois game is not accurate. If Michigan loses to Illinois because they're missing their best player AND then loses to Ohio State, they're out of the playoff discussion. They needed to win the Illinois game. If they went 11-0 before losing to Ohio State, they probably could have backed into the playoff, just like Ohio State did. That game absolutely had an impact on season goals of making the playoff and/or winning the national championship.
I answered your question about weight gain. It happens for the vast majority of people that age. Some players gain and some don't. Nobody said it was a bad thing. Doesn't make the connection you think it does.
DeleteMy take on the Illinois game is accurate. The lost their starting RB playing him in a game that didn't matter. You can invent non-sensical and counter-factual hypotheticals to argue if you like. I'll be over here in the real world.
That game didn't affect winning the big ten or winning a national championship.
I'm beside myself in disbelief. Although I thought we could/should/would win all but one game, the season as a whole has exceeded expectations - TWICE!
ReplyDeleteAgree on Edwards. He's our Travis Etienne, and loved that he took his time on the mic to push the Corum Heisman campaign ... but he lacks the legdrive to push piles, explaining the carries for Mullens
Also agree on JJ. Great sophomore year, but he can't afford to miss spring again
TCU's corners will be tough, and a running QB can give us fits. Still, I expect Minter to do enough to keep this game ours, and I think Harbaugh's OL will be just too much for this B12 team
GO BLUE! 🏆🏆
I expected a 9-3 season so I'm definitely pleasantly surprised.
DeleteRegarding the RB personnel. Michigan wants to use a RB rotation. Haskins/Corum, Haskins/Edwards, Corum/Edwards. It's next man up and it turns out that next man is Mullings so now it's Edwards/Mullings for the playoffs.
The coaches use their RBs in tandem in the best way the fits the offense. ''
Mullings IS a more limited player, having spent most of his time at LB. It does make sense to use him in a short yardage specialist role. That'll keep the rotation going and let Edwards stay fresh and leverage Mullings best traits.
But it doesn't mean Edwards is deficient (just like it didn't mean Edwards or Corum were deficient in the past). Next year when he's the primary back or in the opportunities he might get this year. If Cole Cabana was available for the playoff Edwards would probably be the between the tackles guy and Cabana the pass catcher and outside runner. But Mullings is the best available option so how do you pair your do-everything primary back with the other guy. This is the same question that came up last year when Corum went out and this year when Haskins graduated.
Again -- using a 2nd RB, with different strengths than RB1, does NOT mean that RB1 is deficient or RB2 is deficient. True last year and true this year.
----------------------
The nice thing about Michigan facing really good corners is that we don't really rely on throwing to our wideouts. So if Joey Porter is going to be used to shut down Cornelius Johnson our offense can just keep humming with the run game, short stuff to Bell, TE throws etc. Maybe TCU will stack the box like OSU did and be better able to execute that strategy but yeah - if we win in the trenches we'll win the game again. Now that Harbaugh has unleased the 7 OL personnel package - we have a way to double down on that battle.
What a great season! I thought UM would be 10-2 because of their schedule not because I think this team was better than last year’s. I agree that Jim Harbaugh is one of the great football coaches. Wouldn’t put him in the top 3 though. He needs to win a Nat Champ first before he could be one of the best. For now, I would put Dabo, Saban, Meyer and Smart over him.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest concern on this team is the defense. The defense has been allowing yardage in the past 2 games. 500 yards is a lot to give up to a team like Purdue. I do not know if our redzone defense “luck” can continue. TCU seems like Purdue but better. Duggan can run and you know what they say about UM defense and running QB. Their top WR can rival Charlie Jones.
If we have Corum, then I would say the 9 points spread is too little because TCU’s biggest weakness is their run defense. Because we can just go on our 6 minute TD drive and maintain huge time of possession. For all the greatness Edwards has shown in the last 2 games, he has not been able to grind out the 3-4 yards like Corum can, especially not with the cast. So far the coaches have done a great job of replacing the injured players. Let’s hope this can continue. Go Blue!
Why Dabo? He's far less proven as a HC and took much longer to get Clemson into elite position than Harbaugh took at Stanford/UM.
DeleteSmart has an argument but I think the job is easier at Georgia than Michigan because of the available talent pipeline.
It wasn't just OSU and Purdue this year. Edwards was also able to step in when Corum was hurt last year. 178 yards against Maryland when his hand wasn't hurt.
DeleteMullings shows a lot of promise, needs to learn to follow blockers better
ReplyDeleteThe defense didn't look as good as it usually does. They gave up a whole lot of yards
I think Aiden O'Connell is a better passer than Stroud. for one thing he sees a lot more adversity in a given game than Stroud ever has and won't until next year. I also think that Charlie Jones is special in the Patriot slot receiver when they had Tom Brady kind of way. I think both of those kids, barring injury, could have really nice NFL careers.
ReplyDeleteOn Harbaugh. As everyone around here knows, I've been a supporter and defender. I thought from the beginning that you had to throw it around to win at football in this century was plain ridiculous. Thunder brings up Urban Meyer ... ptooie, ptooie ... but that guy famously ran the spread to run it. Saban is in a different category because he is defensive coach and has had an unlimited budget everywhere he's gone since he left Sparty. I guess Urban too, when you think about it.
So, I just talked myself into thinking that Harbaugh is the best coach in College football, and second place ain't that close.
He comes up with stuff that is incredibly innovative, and he does it again and again and again. Then, in the running game for sure his teams are incredibly coached up, well drilled and precise. You see it over and over and over and over until you're surprised when somebody makes a bad read. In the passing game, not so much, but there absolutely is an opportunity cost in any system anybody chooses in the college game, which is an absolute function of NCAA practice rules, and mind your #%&$^@ stretching by the way.
His teams are across the board tougher than yours. That has always been the case, but if recent puffery on Biff Poggi is to believed the 7 on 9 drill we've been running since Poggi got here is certainly been contributing. Thank you Biff Poggi, you will be missed. I didn't believe the part where Poggi talked Harbaugh into staying out of the OC's meetings. I really can't see evidence of that either in our schemes or play calling.
Finally, I saw way most of Harbaugh's games in a stadium. It was right in the middle of that time of my life when I had a little money and no reason to stay home. With regards to JJ McCarthy, I think he plays like Harbaugh did. He's a better athlete with way more wheels, and a much bigger arm, but he's Harbaugh Jr. on a football field.
Roanman
DeleteI think the guys that win at multiple places stand out. Harbaugh has done that but so have Saban and Meyer. I do think Michigan is a tougher place to win than LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and Florida. But Utah and MSU are tough too. None are as tough as Stanford IMO, but what Meyer did at Bowling Green was impressive too.
DeleteThe main reason to hold onto Harbaugh through the struggles of 2020 (besides just "duh - this is an NFL coach willing to coach at Michigan and everyone being suggested as a replacement isn't as good") was that guys like Saban and Swinney also need several years to get their programs up to speed. Saban took 5 years to win at MSU. Lost 12 games his first 3 years at LSU. Went 2-6 his first year at Alabama.
The only exception is Meyer - who has won literally everywhere he has gone right away. I think you can have a pretty strong debate between the 3 depending on what you value more
-Saban: production and longevity
-Meyer: success rate and immediacy
-Harbaugh: winning at every level (NFL, Power 5, FCS, coach, player), no short cuts taken
As far as the arguments against them go
-Saban - failed in NFL and mostly just has to maintain his advantage at Alabama
-Meyer - shady off field everything
-Harbaugh - hasn't won a national championship/title at any level.
Hopefully that last bit can be deleted in a few weeks.
Yeah, Saban was a poor professional coach, and our boy Urban's fail in the NFL is the stuff of legend.
DeleteLOL - I forgot about Urban's Jacksonville adventure.
Delete@Lank, I think what Dabo has done at Clemson is pretty impressive. He has won 2 Nat Champ. He has double digit wins in the last 10 yrs. Clemson was not a blue blood program when he took over. I think based on just the two national championships, he shd be ranked ahead of Harbaugh. For whatever reason, Harbaugh has never won the big one. Whether in NFL or college level. If we are talking about coaches who have won everywhere they go, we also need to also consider Brian Kelly. He has won everywhere he went. ND is not exactly an easy place to coach and yet he brought them to 3 playoff berth.
ReplyDeleteIt's impressive for sure. I'm just saying it took him a couple years (not a shot against him just a contrast with Meyer) and that he's only done it at one place (unlike the "big 3").
DeleteI don't think it all boils down to RINGZ. What Harbaugh did at San Diego, Stanford, and the NFL was never going to win a national championship but it's still very impressive. I don't think Dabo could have done any of that.
I also agree that Brian Kelly has an impressive resume. He could be up there too, unfortunately.
@Lank. Edwards has always shown explosiveness, We can even argue that he is more explosive than Corum. But he has many more runs that yielded 0-3 yards whereas Corum is almost an automatic 4-5 yards everytime,
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see data to substantiate this. It may be true. It may not be.
DeleteWhat I'll note is that it's also EXACTLY what people said about Corum vs Haskins last year. Now they're saying it about Edwards vs Corum this year. Corum has experienced both ends of this criticism; that the starter is better suited for manball/more durable than the backup who is more geared to big play explosives. (And we had a similar discussion back in the Deveon Smith/Ty Isaac days too. And the Higdon/Evans days. Hell I remember this from the Emmitt Smith/Barry Sanders era).
Thunder will say the role reversal for Corum is explained by the 10 pounds in the offseason. I'd say the hypothesis keeps getting disproven and thus is probably bunk.
We're not talking about Ben Mason vs AJ Henning here - these are high end do-everything RBs recruited to be primary backs. That's true for a smaller lighter backs like Stokes, Edwards and Corum just as much as taller heavier backs like Charbonnet and Haskins.
There's just a lot of focus on RB size that I don't think is substantiated by evidence. It's a huge contributing factor in false narratives IMO.
Just to refute the "automatic" hypothesis a bit. Here are Corum's 19 touches before the fumble/injury play against Illinois.
Delete3 are explosive (over 10 yards)
4 are between 4 and 10 yards.
12 are less than 4 yards
(14:48 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 37 yds to the Illin 38
(12:51 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Illin 3
(11:59 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 2
(11:28 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD
(9:56 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 4
(9:19 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 7
(8:48 - 1st) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 41 yds
(6:18 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 36
(5:55 - 1st) Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37
(2:07 - 1st) Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 46
(1:47 - 1st) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down
(11:11 - 2nd) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 2
(10:56 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 39
(9:28 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 33
(3:56 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34
(3:25 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 34
(2:52 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 36
(2:15 - 2nd) Blake Corum run for 25 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down
Unlike Lank and Thunder, I do not have any data to back me up. But the eye test seem to indicate that everytime Corum touches the ball, it is going to be for positive yardage and that he has positive yardage after the first contact. Corum was not like that last year.
DeleteThunder, how much of what we see against Purdue and OSU is because they were stacking the line of scrimmage as supposed to a team like Nebraska? I kept reading about “free hitters” in the Purdue game especially designed to stop the run game.
Thunders analysis is debunked below.
DeleteFT - My eye test agreed with your argument above (to paraphrase it - that Corum's success rate was higher than Edwards). I thought the same thing about Deveon Smith over Ty Issac and Vincent Smith over Michael Shaw. But the data doesn't show it.
My eye test disagrees with you on Corum last year. I don't have data on that but I'd be willing to bet a good bit of money that Corum was just as good at YAC last year as this year - even if he achieved it slightly differently. I saw plenty of toughness and ability to move the pile last year.
(My eye test also told me Alann Bowman was a promising QB and led me to think he would eventually beat out Cade McNamara. So there's that.)
I think you have to even further segment the "explosive" runs if you actually want to get into this type of analysis. That's where you see the biggest difference between 2022 Corum (post weight gain) and Edwards. Edwards leads the power 5 in runs of over 60 yards (4) in limited time. It's the long speed where I think you see the biggest difference.
ReplyDeleteSomeone ran the numbers and yeah ... Narratives and facts don't always line up. https://twitter.com/iBFC_m/status/1599874564707602432?t=AnIwt5B--M4265Jri3kgRw&s=19
ReplyDeleteI don't know how trustworthy "iBlog4cookies" on Twitter might be, and have not gone through that data
DeleteBut "feelings" aside, the eye test works if you know the sport. If you've played and/or coached, you can see it. For example - and without actually looking up stats - how many plays did we see last year with HH pushing a pile? How many times did we see Corum do it this year? Have we ever seen Edwards* do it?
A poster said in another thread that JH may cringe when he sees Edwards take it to the House, because JH wants to keep opposing defenses on the field, and grind them. What happened to our time of possession after Corum left? My guess is that we had a 7-10min swing against us, which is okay for most on 2022, but not ideal for MICHIGAN & Harbaugh
How much work did brad robbins get before & after corum's injury? How much after? I would bet that number jumped to a season high
Back to ToP, while we can agree it's not an important stat in modern CFB, we can also agree that it's part of our identity - body blows. If I'm right about ToP, what were other factors that could contribute to the flip? Did we play slow, time eating offenses? NO ... we played hurry up, get to the line & catch the Defense on their heels, Spread Offense. Is that a coincidence?
*I am confident Edwards will be elite at MICHIGAN, and probably our best in the NFL in a very long time. But it's okay to admit that he's not your typical Harbaugh smash mouth RB
Thunder equated a blue chip RB running between the tackles to a trick play above. This is a kid recruited by Alabama and every other major program. Him running the ball between the tackles is not a gimmick.
DeleteJE is arguing above that Edwards breaking long runs is somehow...bad?
I dunno - but to me these are just wacky lines of reasoning. I have no clue why this counts as a hot take but apparently on this blog it does.
Donovan Edwards is a good running back.
Donovan Edwards was a good running back last year.
Donovan Edwards was a good running back the year before that.
This year he has run for 400 yards in two games with a broken wrist.
Last year he ran the ball effectively and was an impact freshman even with excellent backs ahead of him.
In High School he was 5-star recruit recruited by everybody.
Edwards is good. He was always good. Anyone who said otherwise is wrong.
Edwards DID run between the tackles as a freshman. And he did it well. He didn't do it often. Because he was the 3rd string back in a loaded backfield AND Because he was EXCEPTIONAL as a pass catcher.
There was a false narrative made, based on a limited sample size and false assertions, that he was not a good RB. Now he's supposedly still limited because of something something. None of it is backed up by basic logic or data. The simple explanation, without all this twisted logic, is that Donovan Edwards is a good running back who is good at rushing.
The TEAM NEEDS are what have changed. When Haskins left they needed Corum to step up and carry a bigger load. He did and that wasn't surprising. Ditto now with Edwards. History is repeating itself but not everyone wants to learn the lessons no matter how many times they see it in front of their eyes or how much data is there to prove it.
It seems like it might have taken a broken hand for you guys to realize that he could run the ball well. Otherwise we might have seen more games like Iowa and Maryland where Edwards was used heavily as a pass catcher. The lesson here, if you want to see it, is that Edwards isn't and wasn't deficient as a runner just because he was used as a passer. (That's another basic logical fallacy.)
Sometimes people let their concern for predictions being right override their analysis. I think that's happening here.
Harbaugh keeps recruiting small backs. He does not share the worries that were expressed about Corum. Neither does Mike Hart.
DeleteCorum has disproven these worries about him. I thought Edwards had too but I guess not for some.
People fretted last year, with Haskins, about the red zone offense AND the short yardage effectiveness (sans FB). Haskins departed and things got better.
Manball doesn't take Ron Dayne at RB it takes a powerful OL. Manball is not hindered by speed.
@JE
DeleteNot picking on you specifically here, because you're not alone but the eye test told you that Blake Corum was deficient at running between the tackles. It also told you (but not most others) that Donovan Edwards lacked the balance to be an effective runner. Neither of those seem to be true.
It's POSSIBLE that they were true in the past. But very unlikely. It was always opinion based hypotheses; not evident in any results; not substantiated by data. It was disputed at the time and it's not true now. Everything else is a theories, opinions, and rationalizing.
Similarly, FT made a comment above that is reasonable from an eye test. It's not a dig on him because I think a lot of people feel this way -- and I'm not excluding myself. He had an opinion but the results say something else. The nice thing about data is it doesn't have an opinion.
In this case I agreed with the opinion (unlike above) but as I said -- I can't actually prove it. It's just feelings. My eye test is wrong sometimes just like anyone elses but the fact that you help coach your kid's youth teams doesn't SEEM, at first blush, to have helped you analyze what is happening at Michigan any better at RB.
The eye test varies and as much as you want to say mine sucks I saw Corum's freshman year (unimpressive statistically) and said he was special - argued with Thunder about it. I saw Edward's freshman year and said he was good - argued with you about it.
These are backs who can do everything. The recruiting rankings say that. The results say that. You are spitting into the wind of reality.
@lank 1146, when did I say long runs were a bad thing? I was on my feet at the Shoe, surrounded by fat ohioans when Edwards busted those two long runs ... I was going nuts, and annoyed entire sections with celebration ... I think you're arguing points not made
DeleteEdwards improved from FR year to SO. He's still not moving piles, but he is breaking arm tackles there's not a person in Schembechler Hall who would argue against the notion that Edwards improved
@Lank 137, I never said Corum was bad. I've been a big Corum fan since he got here. I also never said Edwards couldn't be an effective runner I said that as a FR, he needed to world on balance & leg drive. I think he's making improvements, and expected him to. He's on his way to elite Again, you're arguing points not made (by me), rather than answer simple questions I asked
You said the long runs were "not ideal for MICHIGAN & Harbaugh".
DeleteNo I didn't. I referred to a post from Thunder's Game Summary. I looked again ... and it was YOU who I was referring to:
DeleteLank November 27, 2022 at 11:32 AM
"The big plays were always there. It's just not how Harbaugh wants to win.
Like Bo, he wants a 15 play drive that grinds opponents down. The longer it takes the better. A small part of Harbaugh clenches up when Donovan Edwards breaks a 75 yard run LOL."
https://touch-the-banner.com/michigan-45-ohio-state-23/
Yeah I said that with an LOL. That means lots of laughs. Like don't take this seriously when I say "a small part of Harbaugh" at the front of the sentence and then end with LOL, I don't actually think Harbaugh thinks it's bad. You're taking it seriously talking about time of possession like it's 1988. Like this is actually a bad thing.
DeleteThe style points don't matter. The points do.
I love that you think this is a gotcha. I knew exactly what you were referring to when you posted it LOL.
DeleteTelling part of the story, not all of it. Before the LOL, you said 'it's not how Harbaugh wants to win' ... then you went on to describe how Harbaugh - and his mentor Bo - preferred to run their offense
DeleteI've said repeatedly that in 2022, ToP is not an important stat, but it is a part of the MICHIGAN offense under Jim Harbaugh ... unless his RB cannot pound away at the opposing Defense
You have said that many times. Doesn't make it true.
DeleteYou insist that Harbaugh wants big physical pounding backs yet he keeps recruiting and playing guys who are 200 pounds or less and categorized as "scatbacks" who "can't hold up" and won't "push the pile". And then....they do.
@JE. You're down to arguing style points. That's how far the SEE, RBS MATTER mantra has taken you.
ReplyDeleteYou said Edwards was not a good RB last year. You said Corum wasn't a manball back like HH. Now you're saying Edwards isn't a manball back like Corum. Next year you will say Cabana/Stokes is not a manball back like Edwards.
The bottomline is that you and Thunder keep saying THIS GUY matters, he's better than the guy behind him. Then the guy disappears and then the next guy comes in and you say NO, THIS GUY - who I shat on - HE MATTERS.
Offseason or no offseason - there's always an explanation or an excuse for it but never any self reflection -- why was I wrong.
Why did it not matter to results?
Why was the RB position just as productive without the guy I said mattered as with him?
Why did the depth concerns I raised not come to fruition?
Why is this happening again and again that I am wrong about RB?
You still haven't answered simple questions I asked above. But they're rhetorical questions, because we all know & see the difference in switching RBs ...
DeleteNow ... how many OL started this year? How many OL combinations? Did we see the same differences in results or approach from the offense, as we did with our RB1? Sh:t, I can't even tell you which OL started or sat out which games, because (compared to RB1 and RBs3-5), it doesn't matter
Is this the simple question I didn't answer?
Delete"For example - and without actually looking up stats - how many plays did we see last year with HH pushing a pile? How many times did we see Corum do it this year? Have we ever seen Edwards* do it?"
ReplyDeleteIf you want to fire back with "OL doesn't matter" that's pretty easy to respond to.
I believe we have started 8 different OL this year. 6 of which also started last year. We bring in experienced juniors and seniors and top 100 recruits as backups. Even with this - we still lost our senior QB to an injury on a hit he took while we were down one of our best (Keegan).
More importantly, we saw what lack of OL depth, experience, and quality could do in the Hoke years. Injured QBs, sacks, plummeting YPC for an NFL back like Toussaint (not to mention Denard). When have we seen that at RB?
The closest thing I can remember to a RB change/turnover/lack of depth making an impact is Mike Hart in 2004 -- and even then I can make a pretty strong argument about the same stuff as always (didn't get it done/differentiate vs strong defenses) and backup filled in capably (Jerome Jackson vs Northwestern).
Again, arguing points not made. Of course our OL matters. But did anything about our offense change during the 10 games we used a different starting lineup?
DeleteLots changed when we lost our #1RB, and if we lost #2??? We'd be done for. It's why we threw in the backup LB ahead of the two other scholarship RBs, plus the walkon groomed all year
Who is getting the carries matters. A lot
"did anything about our offense change during the 10 games we used a different starting lineup?"
DeleteYes. Many things. Including our 2021 starting having a season ending injury.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Delete"Who is getting the carries matters. A lot"
DeleteProduction says otherwise. That hasn't faltered.
Not when we lost our #1RB this year. Not when we lost our #2RB last year. The production kept right on rolling.
It LOOKED different - to your eye test, in your opinion, but the results were there. You have opinions but you can't back them up with facts or stats.
That was true with Edwards last year - effectively running between the tackles during the season and then given the ball to run between the tackles against OSU - and this year (even with a broken hand inhibiting him, especially as a pass catcher) he was able to rack up massive rushing days. You call it development, I call it denial.
If Corum had had the 2 games that Edwards had you would have said "see, this is why Corum matters". But Edwards had them and instead of saying "hmmmm, maybe he didn't" you dodge the issue and move to style points. "Sure he ran for 400... but it wasn't the style we want". "Anyone can see how much it matters" - no matter what the results say. We went through the same thing last year.
Last year you said Haskins mattered for Harbaull because Corum couldn't do it. Now you say Edwards can't execute Harbaull because he isn't Corum. The instances where we've struggled to exectue Harbaull have been with healthy starters, not without them.
You call it development, I call it denial.
To boil it down:
DeleteI say: All RBs are good.
You say: All STARTING RBs are good.
I say: Their backups are good too.
You say: No - all backup RBs are deficient.
...Until the backup becomes a starter and then you claim development (if there's an offseason) or argue style points (if it's during the regular season).
Anyway I'm going to move on. This thread has too many comments and it's off the frontpage. Corum is a great RB. Edwards is also a very good RB even if he has a slightly different skillset, the coaches can use it. Just like Haskins/Corum had different skillsets and the coaches adapt and evolve to suit their talent.
Georgia's D is probably stopping our offense regardless. Last year Edwards, Corum, and Haskins all healthy each had between 4 and 4.3 ypc against Georgia. Didn't seem to matter then either.