Well, that sucked. A friend texted me at halftime of last night's game and said, "It looks like TCU is playing its best game of the year and Michigan is playing its worst." And that's about right. Michigan went away from what got it to the College Football Playoff by trying to be cute rather than tough. They played better when they stopped trying to be cute, but it was too late. I tweeted during the game:
Michigan had too much time to prepare. They’re trying to be cute instead of just playing football.
— Touch the Banner 〽️ (@TouchTheBanner) December 31, 2022
Philly Wasn't Special. Jim Harbaugh took credit (blame) after the game for calling the Philly Special that failed spectacularly. Leave it to Michigan in a playoff game to be one of the few teams that can't execute something that seems to have about an 80% success rate. The whole play was off from the beginning, from the timeout prior to the weirdly timed motion to the awkward lateral to Colston Loveland. It was a bad time for the call, and it was poorly designed and executed. The motion was too deep, the lateral was too deep, and TCU wasn't in man coverage despite being on the goal line, so the cornerback was sitting in the flat where J.J. McCarthy was trying to sneak. Just line up in a heavy formation and run the damn ball.
Hit the jump for more.
Where are Khalid Hill and Ben Mason when you need them? Early in his Michigan tenure, Jim Harbaugh took a couple tight end/fullback type bodies and turned them into goal line machines. Hill had 13 rushing touchdowns in 2016-2017, and Ben Mason had 7 rushing scores in 2018. The vast majority of those scores came when Hill/Mason were lined up as fullbacks and got quick handoffs from the 1- or 2-yard line. The Josh Gattis experiment removed that play from the equation from 2019-2021, and Michigan decided to bring it back for the Fiesta Bowl. The problem? The guy they ran it with is a guy who has only been playing running back for a few weeks. (And don't give me the "He was a running back in high school" bullcrap. Almost every FBS athlete was a jack-of-all-trades awesome athlete in high school, but that doesn't mean they're ready to carry the ball on the goal line in a playoff game.) Kalel Mullings looked extremely uncomfortable lining up as a fullback, and the handoff from an under-center McCarthy was a disaster from the start. I sat in a Nick Saban clinic one time and he said, "Think players, not plays." Well, that play was another example - just like the Philly Special - where Michigan's coaching staff was thinking of plays, not players.
Why was the ball on the 1-yard line anyway? The replay official was the only guy in the stadium who thought Roman Wilson was down on the 1-yard line after catching a bomb from McCarthy. A 51-yard touchdown pass was called a touchdown on the field, and yet despite incontrovertible replay evidence, the replay official said there was no touchdown. So then Michigan had to run an extra play to try to score, and Mullings fumbled. That was a total failure of the replay system, and the margin there (+6 or +7, depending on the result of the kick) ended up being the margin for the game.
J.J. McCarthy was alternately awesome and terrible. At a glance, McCarthy's numbers were pretty darn good: 20/34, 343 yards, 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing), and 10 carries for 52 yards. Sadly, McCarthy threw 2 interceptions. Oh yeah, and both interceptions were returned for touchdowns. That was 14 additional points for Michigan to overcome in a game that was decided by 6 points. McCarthy had only thrown 3 interceptions all season, and then he threw 2 touchdowns to the other team in this game. Both interceptions seemed to come when he predetermined where he was going to throw the ball, despite good coverage on the play. When McCarthy wasn't throwing scores to the other team, he was throwing dimes downfield to the tune of 10.1 yards per attempt and nurtured two 100+ yards receivers in Ronnie Bell (6 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD) and Roman Wilson (5 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD). I predicted before the game that Wilson would have a big game, and in addition to those stats, he added an 18-yard touchdown run. (Oh, and he should have had +1 yard and +1 touchdown if the replay official didn't have an aneurysm.)
I didn't understand Michigan's game plan. Maybe this is too high school of me, but the best way I know to defeat a 3-3-5 defense is to run unbalanced sets with heavy personnel. The 3-3-5 is designed to beat the spread, but Michigan didn't go "all in" on going heavy. Instead, they often lined up in 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends) with a tight end lined up at fullback. They did this even after Luke Schoonmaker left the game with a shoulder injury, which happened after Michigan lost Erick All to injury earlier in the year. That's not the best deployment of Michigan's personnel. Freshman tight end Colston Loveland is not a blocker at this point in his career, and walk-on Max Bredeson is...ummm...definitely a warm body and stuff. How about using 4-star tackles like Trente Jones and Jeffrey Persi as extra tight ends/tackles to create mismatches? What advantage does Max Bredeson give a team like Michigan against a playoff team like TCU? Bredeson isn't a great blocker and isn't a pass receiving threat. I tweeted a prediction before the game that Jones would be an unsung hero in the game, and instead, he barely played.
Defensively, things went about how I thought they would. I did not expect TCU receiver Quentin Johnston to have a 76-yard touchdown catch on a shallow cross, but Michigan held the passing game in check for much of the game. Heisman runner-up quarterback Max Duggan finished 14/29 for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Johnston had 6 catches for 163 yards and 1 score. The surprising thing was that TCU backup running back Emari Demercado ran for 150 yards on 17 carries after starter Kendre Miller (8 carries, 57 yards) left with an injury.
Michigan is the better team. Yes, I'm going to be That Guy. Michigan is better than what they showed. They should have won that game. They called a stupid play on the goal line (-7 points), another stupid play on the goal line (-7 points), and threw 2 pick-sixes (-14 points). The referees also inexplicably took away a touchdown, which is included in that calculation. That's a swing of 28 points on four uncharacteristic plays. Michigan still managed to outgain TCU, 528-488.
It's still an excellent season. The season ended on a sour note, but it does for almost everyone when a playoff is involved. When the 12-team playoff is instituted, 11 of those teams are going to end their season in disappointment. Right now it's just 3 out of 4. This team still went 13-1, set a bunch of records, made the playoff for a second year in a row, beat Ohio State for a second year in a row, won a Big Ten Championship for a second year in a row, beat Michigan State, and beat Penn State. There are 131 teams in the country, and virtually every other player in America wishes he was suiting up wearing a winged helmet and playing on New Year's Eve. Michigan is set up for success once again in 2023, and while it will be tough to get back to the CFP for another run at a championship, it's still a goal within reach.
Go Blue!
dimes, yeah, that was a nice dime he threw to that defender that dropped it.
ReplyDeleteThe DC for TCU read JJ like a cheap novel.
JJ's the type of QB that coaches have to simplify the playbook for.
He is GREAT at running. WHY didn't they call more of that? Why?!
Again, he went 20/34 for 343 yards. That's a great game statistically until you factor in the 2 INTs. I'm not saying you ignore them. They were atrocious. But it's not like he played terribly for the entire game.
Deleteyou did know TCU has the #82 passing defense?
Deletethe only other time he got over 300 yards was against Indiana, which has the #119 passing defense.
and it should have been 3 picks, that defender shouldn't have dropped that easy pick near the end of the game
But yeah, keep the JJ exaggeration train going!!! That train is going to be running for one more year. Yikes. One more year of this.
Anon, I will agree that JJ's legs should have been utilized more (especially early) to open up the run game. He was wide open for keepers early. It was not a great game by JJ but given that Michigan could not run the ball effectively, it was not a bad passing performance. Obviously two pick-6s really tarnish things. Also, TCU was the #23 pass efficiency defense. They are not elite but they are not #82 either. Bottom line - Michigan got outcoached in this win and they didn't win the lines of scrimmage.
DeleteJJ, a true sophomore, just led us to 13-0.
DeleteUM has NO NFL WR's. None. No one will get drafted, no one will make a team.
JJ was getting immediate pressure with stunts that for some reason, were NEVER picked up. The OL was a joke. Confused, out of position.
The routes are all these slow developing routes that look like they are out of the 1980's before the 85 Bears changed all that. Where were the quick slants, the hot reads, something to give your QB a chance?
Thunder covered the running game. You play action pass them, hit it behind them, until they STOP running free.
We made this too easy.
Oh, Fire Weiss.
McCarthy threw an INT on a slant. The RB checkdowns have been there, but McCarthy didn't target Edwards. Considering Edwards's receiving prowess and McCarthy's use of him in the past, I really think Michigan/McCarthy just don't trust Edwards to catch the ball right now with his injured right hand.
DeleteYou watch the NFL and it seems like they all dink and dunk (hence, 65-70% completion rate is the new standard. Back in the 70's it was 50%!!). RB's. TE, WR screens, with some deep shots sprinkled in. Pitch and catch. I can't see the field (all 22) so it might be on JJ not going to the right guy. But to me, it seems like it takes a dime to complete a lot of these passes and they are always contested. I like what I see in JJ (henson level talent) and hope we can develop a NFL level receiver and give him easy check downs. Next year is probably when the window closes and I hope we can cash in.
DeleteMeh, I see some open receivers that McCarthy just isn't finding. He's only a true sophomore. This is not me saying he needs four or five years to be good, nor am I saying Michigan's QB development is outstanding. In fact, I've argued that Michigan QBs tend to get worse under Harbaugh. But McCarthy's in his first year as a starter; he's going to make some poor reads at times.
DeleteI commented in one of the other pre-game posts that my worry was Michigan would come in flat or rusty. We can argue about the words 'flat' or 'rusty,' but whatever the word is, Michigan did not play a good game. And my point in the other post is that this is typically what Michigan does, down through the years. There's something about the long layover that Michigan does not handle well. If this game had been played two weeks after the B1G championship game, Michigan probably would have pummeled TCU.
ReplyDeleteI thought about this in the 1Q, but I'd say it looked more like we looked past them. Close enough though, I guess
DeleteI would say if Michigan came out rusty, so did TCU. Duggan had only thrown 4 interceptions all season, and he also threw 2 this game.
Deleteone pick wasn't Duggans fault. He hit the receiver right on the numbers:
Deletehttps://twitter.com/FTBeard7/status/1609330936109477888
@ Anonymous 4:05 p.m.
DeleteSo you're saying the receiver might have been rusty catching the ball? That doesn't really change the theory that "rust" may have been a factor.
No
DeleteIm saying 1 puck was the WRs fault
That pick was not early in the game
Jim Harbaugh was wrong to change QBs. McNamara is better than JJ.
The only thing he does better is run .But why didn't they have him run much more?
Maybe Jim Harbaugh is more suited for the NFL. He should just make tbe break and go there .
I'm going to disagree with you that McNamara is better than McCarthy. McCarthy had a higher completion percentage, a higher YPA, a higher PER, and better rushing stats. He also threw 1 fewer interception on 5 more attempts. Oh, and McCarthy's team went 13-1 instead of 12-2.
DeleteEvery statistic disagrees with you.
McCarthy is better. Next year mcnANON will say his inferior performance at Iowa will be because of less talent and ignore that McNamara also failed to perform as well at Michigan.
DeleteMichigan would have been 13-1 with Mcnamara if not for the fumbled hand off when he was out getting looked at in the injury tent.
DeleteDid you ever see McNamara be as careless with the ball as McCarthy? and did he ever once come anywhere near 2 pick 6's?
McNamara is better than McCarthy.
I'm going to need an explanation as to how you can think McCarthy is better, because just going by the second pick 6 I can't see how you say it. The LB that intercepted the pass didn't even try to disguise anything. He was in his zone assignment to whole time. McCarthy didn't even check where that LB in the area he was going to throw to was. He just threw. Look at is head and see if he even looks at that LB after the snap. He doesn't. And that is a basic thing a QB is supposed to do.
DeleteJJ is overrated. With McNamara Michigan would have very likely beaten TCU.
You can just look at the stats thunder gave or just compare what McNamara did in the playoff vs what McCarthy has done in the playoff.
DeleteMcNamara is overrated. With McCarthy Michigan would have very likely beaten MSU and Georgia.
Out coached
ReplyDeleteOut executed
Out hit (how many collisions saw our guy rocked back? Who expected that)
Soooo many uncharacteristic screw ups
Why could they get pressure with 3 or 4 against our OL, but we couldn't? Minter was forced to Blitz, because their OL outplayed our DL
Why didn't we run JJ sooner?
Agree on the Persi/Jones take, and have all year
In addition to a FB, needed Corum badly yesterday. He can turn 2 into 4yds, and can cut into a big play. Love Edwards, but we gotta keep his big play ability, and get a complimentary Back
*Lank said in preseason that it was getting early late for Dunlap. Add Stokes to that list
I expected our guys to be knocked backward. Donovan Edwards is not a tough runner. We don't have a Blake Corum or Hassan Haskins right now. Edwards is a finesse runner.
DeleteDonovan was just one. But it was LBs, TEs, etc ... then there's the guys getting up slowly (Wilson) or not at all (Schoon)
DeleteTCU was more of an attacking mentality
agreed. TCU played fast and physical. you could tell they felt challenged by the media, handicappers, etc. their OL played really well and their D tried to tilt the field downhill.
Deleteit was fun to see JJ and co keep slinging it after all the mistakes and take it down to the wire. its tough to overcome spotting a team 28 points on miscues. michigan didnt play close to their cleanest game. they were sloppy across the board and it bit them. outplayed and absolutely outcoached. tough way to close a historic season
Jim Harbaugh has many positive attributes as a head coach, but he is not without his flaws. His coordinator and staff construction has been, at times, spotty and awkward. His reluctance to have a single OC is probably not a good thing; his dabbling in having clearly temporary coaches (McElwain, Fisch, Hamilton) brings about some unnecessary disruption; his penchant for having coaches who didn't want to recruit (Brown, most notably); and his taking until now to establish something like an "offensive identity" all factor into some of the negatives. On the whole he's a great coach for Michigan, and I'm not advocating for someone else. But I wish he would reflect on some of these things and get a bit more clear on them.
Delete@ je93 11:16 p.m.
DeleteSchoonmaker was hurt at the end of the season, which is why Loveland got so much run and turned into a "star" in the last couple games.
Wilson got tripped going out of bounds and hurt his arm.
Neither one of those things suggests to me that TCU had anything to do with beating them up.
RBs didn't matter. Both teams had their backups in. Big scoring game like this it was the pass game and QB runs that counted.
DeleteThunder, I'd have to rewatch. It did "seem" like collisions sent blue jerseys backward ... was Schoon's season injury his right shoulder?
DeleteLank, do you not think Corum would have made a difference? He's a checkdown option (whereas Edwards cast may have limited him), and there's no way Mullings is even on the field for that fumble ... as a bigger assumption, Corum is a guy who can turn 2yds into 4, and jumpcut a bad block into a good run. I think this was one game he was needed most, because TCU was ready for the boom or bust Edwards runs
There are differences but I'm not convinced Corum is significantly less boom bust. Michigan needed to run outside more than they did. I see it as play calling issue. Not really personnel. Michigan had time to adapt. Tcu didn't . If there's a failure it's whiffing on stokes and Dunlop. I'm not sure how much credit Hart should be getting.
Delete@ je93 11:11 a.m.
DeleteSchoonmaker's injury was to a shoulder. I don't remember whether it was left or right. But then it was a shoulder again against TCU. My guess is that it was the same shoulder. But yeah, Schoonmaker was wearing a harness on his shoulder prior to the TCU game.
Yeah, I thought we didn't call a very good game on either side of the ball, but particularly on offense where we got too cute by just about half. I really don't see any way TCU's D line holds up against our offensive line if we decide to roll them.
ReplyDeleteGetting behind early nearly always causes deviation away from the "Game Plan", but I think we forgot how we go there in the first place.
I didn't think we looked very Harbaugh for more than a couple stretches in this game. If indeed the legend of Biff Poggi is correct, maybe our boy needs to be going back to the offensive staff's meetings.
Roanman
DeleteI think our coaches underestimated TCU and was looking ahead to the finals. I cannot see other reasons why they only used JJ as a running weapon late in 3rd quarter after we are down lots of points.
ReplyDeleteThe concern about redzone offense was not a problem until it became a problem. Yesterday, we had 4 trips inside the 5 yards line and we got 10 points out of it. We missed Khalid Hill, Ben Mason, Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. Tough runners who can grind out the extra 1 yard. I think this is why the coaches recruited Benjamin Hall (to be our short yardage runner).
I commented below that it would not surprise me that Michigan used its allotted practice time at least in part to get ready for Georgia. I'm almost certain TCU spent its time getting ready for Michigan and Michigan only.
DeleteI *really* wish college football would just embrace the playoff model properly, rather than this foolish mix between a playoff and the historic long-layoff, and a half-hearted attempted to cling to the former pageantry of the bowl games. Come out of the regular season and start the playoffs no more than two weeks later. No other sport has a four or five week layoff. The only upside of it is it allows players to heal up a bit. The considerable downside is a lot of mechanics, timing, and chemistry of the game gets a little out of tune.
ReplyDeleteThe present system also allows coaches too much time to think and prepare. For TCU, they viewed the Michigan game as their championship game; whereas I think, as others have commented, Michigan overlooked to some degree TCU, and probably practiced/planned for Georgia. Also, it gave Michigan coaches too much time to get cute.
I don't like what's happening to college football, but there's not a thing I can do about it. In another decade or so it'll be almost unrecognizable.
If only there was another football league to watch instead with these exact rules.
DeleteYou missed my point entirely. College football is in a period where they're trying to have it both ways. It's not working not working very well, and the cracks are showing.
DeleteIt seems to be working well. If your argument is "make it like everything else" and the best you can come up with against it is that it "allows coaches too much time to think and prepare" then I don't think you're making a compelling case for change. The change is happening anyway.
DeleteWhile I disagree with expanding the playoff, I understand the argument. I've still yet to hear anyone explain what the actual problem is of having random bowl games (beyond the playoff is). Like... was it somehow BAD that PSU and Utah got to play each other in Pasadena? Neither team is remotely worthy of being a national champion so what is the harm of playing each other in a fun environment for fans? I think a lot of people just have a really rigid view because most pro sports teams in the USA do things a certain formulaic way.
This probably the best chance for UM to win a national championship in our lifetimes.
ReplyDelete1- TCU had zero top 300 players, typically in these games UM is going up against teams with decisive talent advantages across the board that has to be schemed around.
2- There were no super teams this year, GA/BAMA were in a shoulder year. GA could have been had with good play.
3- The passing "attack" looks antiquated. Looks like something done30 years ago. This doesn't look like will change. Weiss is a made man, but he looks like another Drevno type poor performer that should be gone. Our passing game looks like our OL under Drevno back 3-4 years ago. Once Drevno was fired the OL immediately became our strength.
4- UM recruits like a middle of the road SEC team. Not sure why. Staying at this level after JJ leaves will be difficult.
5- WR's are lacking and it doesn't look like it will change. The Offensive passing attack doesn't help them much. NO WR's taken in the first round in 18 years. Even under BO UM had solid WR's (Smith, Clayton, Carter). Under Moeller/Carr we always has one first rounder backed up by solid mid round NFL talent. Now? Not so much.
BUT- 13-1, big wins this year. Great Season. Next year should be better.
1. Duggan was a top-250 player. Johnston was top-100. There might have been a few others. But it's just not correct that TCU didn't have any.
Delete3. I don't really understand the criticism of this passing attack after this game. Michigan threw for 343 yards. I really think the two pick-sixes - which were individual mistakes by McCarthy - are coloring people's opinions of the overall scheme too much. It doesn't matter what schemes you're using if the QB throws the ball directly into the hands of opponents.
4. UM is having a down year, but no, they don't recruit like a middle of the road SEC team. They're right there in 2023, but that's not typical.
5. I agree with you that the wide receiver development has been lacking. That's been one of my criticisms about Harbaugh's regime for years. And while I think Ronald Bellamy is a pretty good recruiter, he's probably not the greatest WR developer, considering he's only been coaching college football for two years. Maybe he'll get there eventually.
Passing- It seems like most of those throws are into tight windows. Other teams seem to have guys wide open while McCarthy has to throw into an NFL windows while waiting 3-4 seconds for the play to develop. The easy throws that we saw at the beginning of the year (TE crossing routes) were gone the last half of the year (hence, the drop in completion percentage)
DeleteRecruiting- Florida, TN, Auburn, LSU probably recruit at or better than UM. Those are what I consider "middle of the road" SEC teams.
A great season nonetheless. My son talk me into going to the game - his first Michigan game ever - and it was still a thrilling experience despite the loss. My throat will be sore for a few more days from all the yelling.
ReplyDeleteI do think the better team lost because of the randomness element - as Thunder pointed to with the 28 point swing. I also agree that the coaches deserve some blame for some dubious red-zone decisions.
It is tough though when a team that uses TEs so heavily loses their top 2 options over the course of the season. Harbaugh is deservedly going to get crapy for his bowl records but it's tough when you lose key players like Michigan did against FSU in 2016 (Peppers, Butt, and Speight at less than 100%) and in 2022 (Corum, All, Schoonmaker).
I think the piece people are missing about the "philly" trick play is that it kind of reflected a lack of faith. A team that is confident it's going to win the rest of the game with a dominant run game takes the 3 points there.
Lost in all the massive offensive turnover failures is the big problem that the defense did not get any stops in the second half. Can't let a team like TCU score 30+ points and expect to win the game. Michigan played into TCU's hands by playing Big 12 football once TCU established a big lead but the defense had PLENTY of opportunities to step up.
I'll be rooting for TCU to pull the upset next week. To my surprise their fans were classy and fun in general.
Ugh, the 2d Half defense! We got stops in the 1st Half, but as soon as the offense woke up, the D collapsed ...
DeleteFor thunder, what do you make of all the missed tackles? For the second consecutive game, we saw guys take bad angles, reach their arm, and not get low enough to bring down a ball carrier on contact. I noticed this in the BTCG, but it was even more costly against TCU. Demercado never came close to 100yds before the Playoff, but the tiniest of holes meant he'd get a chunk
Frustrating indeed
It makes one wonder just exactly what the practice time between the BTCG and the Fiesta Bowl was spent on.
DeleteAnd I'm wondering who's going to be the every down back next season.
DeleteI remember when people were mad about not having an every down back in in 2020. What a disaster that was to have Corum, Haskins, Charbonnet, and Evans in the same backfield. Stupid coaches.
Delete