Name: J.J. McCarthy
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy
Position: Quarterback
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #9
Last year: I ranked McCarthy #20 and said he would be a backup quarterback (LINK). He started thirteen games and completed 208/322 passes (64.6%) for 2,719 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions; he also ran 70 times for 306 yards and 5 touchdowns.
TTB Rating: 89
I'm almost always usually positively right about everything, but last year I thought McCarthy would be the backup quarterback and that turned out to be the case. Coming off of a CFP appearance in 2021, I thought it would be too difficult to replace Cade McNamara with a somewhat unproven sophomore in McCarthy. But early on it was obvious that McNamara lost some of his mojo, and that mojo had found its way to McCarthy's locker. McNamara started game one and didn't look good. McCarthy started game two and looked really good. By the end of game three, McNamara had a knee injury that knocked him out for the rest of the season, so the positional battle didn't really matter.
Statistically, McCarthy had a very good year. He had a higher completion percentage than any other QB in the Jim Harbaugh era, more yards than anyone except Shea Patterson (2019) and Jake Rudock (2015), and more touchdowns than everyone except Patterson (2019). He also had more rushing yards than any QB since Harbaugh was hired. For the first half of the season, McCarthy was leading the nation in completion percentage . . .
. . . and then things tailed off a little bit. In games nine through twelve, he didn't top 60% completions in any game. Even against Ohio State, he completed just 50% of his passes on 12/24 throws, but 3 of those completions went for touchdowns. His season ended with 2 ugly pick-sixes against TCU, which really cost the team in a 51-45 loss.
But now he has had an entire off-season as the unquestioned starter, and it's probably significant for his development that he has not had to split first team reps with another quarterback. No performance this season is going to have anyone but the dumbest Michigan fans calling for the backup. McCarthy is The Guy.
I have seen some people hyping him up to be a Heisman contender, and I do think that talk is a little premature. So far no Michigan quarterback under Harbaugh has topped 3,061 yards or 23 touchdowns. Last year's Heisman winner, USC's Caleb Williams, threw for 23 touchdowns in just his first eight games, and finished with 42 total passing scores (not to mention 383 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground). He's not going to throw for 4,500 yards and 40+ touchdowns when Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are running for a combined 2,000+ yards and scoring 25+ touchdowns on the ground. What would it take for McCarthy to win the Heisman, realistically? Michigan would probably have to be 13-0 with McCarthy completing 72% or more of his passes for 35+ touchdowns with just a couple interceptions.
Possible? Eh, maybe. Likely? Not really.
Michigan should have great protection up front to keep McCarthy safe, which is great because the backup options are questionable. Jack Tuttle is the primary backup, but he has struggled during his time at Indiana and looks like a better leader than an actual quarterback. After that there's a walk-on in Davis Warren and a couple projects in Jayden Denegal and Alex Orji. If McCarthy goes down for any stretch of time, Michigan will have to grind it out in the running game, and their chances of winning when it comes to CFP time probably drop to zero.
This should be a great season for McCarthy, and he might even be First Team All-Big Ten, especially if Michigan goes 12-0. He's the most talented starting quarterback in the conference, even if a couple guys on more pass-happy teams put up bigger numbers. (Side note: Wisconsin OC Phil Longo's quarterbacks put up big numbers, Purdue is going to the Air Raid, and Ryan Day usually has Ohio State's QBs humming, etc.) I expect McCarthy to end up with 3,000+ yards and about 30 touchdowns, which would have put him at #4 and #2, respectively, in those categories within the Big Ten last year.
Prediction: Starting quarterback; 3,200 yards, 31 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Underrated IMO!
ReplyDeleteI hope you're correct with those statistical predictions! I know that McCarthy is the most talented QB of the Harbaugh era, but I'm in "believe it when I see it" mode when it comes to Michigan's run / pass splits. My fear is that JJ is only playing 60-75% of most games and the reps just aren't there in the passing game.
ReplyDeleteAlso would be interested in how you see that 3,200 yards breaking down by receiver. Feels like either Wilson or Johnson would need to be at 900+ yards in order for that to happen.
ha. My HOPE is that JJ is only playing 60-75% of most games!
DeleteRealistically it could be 60-75% of the first 3 games and then 75-90% for a few of the big ten games. Regardless, broader point is that I hope there's some credence to this idea that we're going to be closer to a 50/50 run / pass split. Not all that important for the majority of the games this season, but I do believe those game passing reps are important to prepare for the late season games.
DeleteHere's a path to 3,200
Delete1,900 from the 3 primary targets (Loveland 700, Wilson 600, Johnson 600)
1,000 from the secondary targets (Corum/Edwards 450, Barner 350, Morris 200)
300 from backups in aggregate
Precedent for approaching 2K from the primary targets is 2016 and 2019. Edwards and Corum at 450 is conservative given they hit 400 in 2021 and 280 in 2022 (despite Edwards broken hand and Corum missing 3 games). Barner is the biggest leap here but I believe he'll be a big part of replacing Bell (especially on 3rd downs) and the TE targets will get consolidated due to less depth.
I would not necessary bet on McCarthy getting to 3,200 because of the reasons outlined. Last year McCarthy threw 2700 out of 3100 passing yards. That total should go up, but McCarthy's share of it could go down. I think the yardages above are acheivable tough.
@Anon
DeleteIt depends on the B1G team. Indiana, MSU, Nebraska, Rutgers are teams we could plausibly trounce. That's half the schedule. We have a lot of teams going through coaching and QB changes and they are not all going to go smoothly.
I would be thrilled to see 700 yards from Loveland. I don't think Butt ever eclipsed ~600. Certainly possible but I'm assuming he'll be closer to ~500. Regardless, 1,900 from Wilson / Johnson / Loveland doesn't feel crazy.
Delete@Anon
DeleteI admit it's an optimistic projection for Loveland. My logic in thinking he will produce like Jake Butt is that he will be the primary go-to guy on 3rd downs like Jake Butt. I don't see either Johnson or Wilson being the trusted go-to, though both are good players. The bigger threat I think in splitting up that role of "trusted agent" could be Barner or Morris.
That's more a prediction of targets than yards but I think Loveland's big play talent will factor in keeping YPC impressive.
I don't expect Bowers level production (940 yards!) but I'm looking at Sam LaPorta having consecutive seasons of over 650 yards and thinking that Loveland might be able to do something in that neighborhood.
Yeah, those prediction numbers seem high. We have a cupcake schedule, and should see plenty of the Tuttle-Warren battle
DeleteA couple good sports radio-friendly debates in here.
ReplyDeleteAs far as most talented QB in the B1G, I think you have an argument on your hands. McCord maybe inexperienced but he was neck and neck with McCarthy in the recruiting rankings so pure talent is up for debate. Arguably the only difference is who the two had to compete with to be starting QBs. In terms of experience and accuracy, Tanner Mordecai is 67% for his career and was originally a Oklahoma (Lincoln Riley) recruit. First years are hard to project but if the Wisconsin OL can adapt and gel to the new offense he could thrive in a Russel Wilson way.
IMO, JJ still doesn't have a signature game. TCU could have been it but the INTs were killers. He's only topped 300 yards twice in 2 years. Denard scoffs.
To be clear, I'm no JJ skeptic - I think he's by far the best QB of the Harbaugh era and bound for the NFL. I think he could go first round even if he doesn't hit 3000 yards (the NFL doesn't care about production as much as people think.)
I just don't know that JJ is a lock to be the best QB in the conference by any stretch. Ignoring the issue of pass attempt volume entirely (I think that's an overrated topic TBH), I don't think he's earned that expectation yet. But we are very justified in hoping he is as Michigan fans.
I certainly won't be calling for a backup (though I haven't done that since Henson was rotating in to start in the previous century). But that's a lie -- I very much want to see an Alex Orji package that is used as a change of pace to keep McCarthy happy and healthy. If Michigan leads by 15-20 points at the half against cupcakes and low end big ten opponents, I very much want to see Orji and Edwards in the backfield with McCarthy and Corum cheering them on with their helmets off.
We've seen bits of the run package before with McCarthy, Milton, and McCaffrey. Orji, now that he's a soph, should be unleashed in a specialist role. With the schedule being what it is and the OL doing what it's doing, the heavy package should be a major part of the offense and ideally, something that PSU and OSU have to spend a chunk of practice time preparing for.
Mordecai is going to put up some numbers. I like Phil Longo and I had a chance to sit in one of his clinics a couple years ago. It's nowhere near as complicated of an offense as Michigan and/or NFL teams run, but if he has a couple skill pieces, he can make things happen. But Mordecai doesn't have very good arm strength, and his mechanics are questionable. I hate the way he throws.
DeleteMcCord is a good talent. And you're right that it could be up for debate. I agree that McCarthy doesn't really have a signature game. Even the OSU win was kind of dodgy (50% completions, some lucky plays, etc.). This kind of goes back to my argument about Harbaugh not developing QBs/WRs. You're not going to get many "signature"-quality games for QBs in this offense, because it's so predicated on the run game. To be a signature victory, I think a QB has to carve up a pretty solid program, and that's not Michigan's MO under Harbaugh.
TCU. I think the signature game was there... almost. JJ had 2 WRs over 100 yards and nearly 400 yards of offense on a day the offense put up 45 points on a top 25 defense. The RBs had 120 yards but the passing offense was thriving, and the offense as a whole was excellent thanks heavily to JJ.
Delete...except for those 3 big turnovers. Flip one of those and it's not hard to imagine a 52-44 Michigan win and that being the signature McCarthy game. But when you lose, the narrative tends to change and the mistakes get a spotlight instead of being glossed over.
Like the 2000 Orange Bowl - nobody remembers or cares that we had 23 carries for 37 yards. But Alabama missed an extra point and Tom Brady goes out a hero. (BTW this has long been a nice game to bring up when people say you have to win the rushing yards battle to win a big game -- Shaun Alexander ran wild and A train...did not).
It will be interesting to see how much JJ's legs are used in normal (i.e., not up by 25pts) gametime. While I love the "heavy" package with Orji (on it's own and as a "make your opponents prepare for it" aspect), that's distinct from the "prepare for JJ's legs" aspect.
ReplyDeletePast precedent says this will not be a big factor until it needs to be (PSU/OSU).
Deletelose a B1G Champion QB, and upgrade
ReplyDeletelose H2, and upgrade
lose Hutch & Ojabo to #2draft & 2d Round, then increase our sack total
lose our two-year starting blindside, and no expected dropoff?
lose a Rimington/Outland winner, and no dropoff?
lose Mazi to the 1st Round, and our DTs get better?
lose DJ Turner, and we have a potential American
Does any position matter, or is MICHIGAN finally in an era of "reload"