Name: Braiden McGregor
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 267 lbs.
High school: Port Huron (MI) Northern
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #17
Last year: I ranked McGregor #41 and said he would be a backup defensive end (LINK). He made 16 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and 2 pass breakups.
TTB Rating: 87
McGregor has had a rough go of it for the past few years. He tore up his knee as a senior in high school, sat out the 2020 season, and then just didn't look like himself in 2021. He looked physically underdeveloped in the lower body and just didn't have the speed or athleticism that he showed earlier in high school.
But in 2022 he seemed to get some of his mojo back. While he didn't put up astounding numbers as a backup, he did make some nice plays and rack up 2.5 sacks. He also batted down 2 balls against Ohio State. It's tough to call that kind of performance a true breakout, but it was a mini-breakout season for the Port Huron native.
The 2023 season should be another step forward for McGregor. He has a good chance to start at defensive end, the position Mike Morris and Aidan Hutchinson played before him. Both of those guys had standout seasons, and McGregor is somewhere between the two of them as an athlete - more athletic than Morris, less athletic than Hutchinson, and probably a little less powerful than both. He's actually very close to Hutchinson's size (McGregor is listed at the same height and just two pounds heavier than Hutchinson was as a senior), and my comparison when he came out of high school was Hutchinson.
I don't think McGregor has the same motor as Hutchinson - nor the array of moves - so I would be extremely surprised if he becomes the same sensation. But I do expect a breakout year for him. I would not be surprised if he approaches double digit sacks and looks like a first team all-conference player.
Prediction: Starting defensive end; 40 tackles, 9 sacks
I'm a lot less optimistic on McGregor. The physical resemblance to Hutchinson is definitely there but entering his senior year we haven't seen anything like Hutch-level performance on the field.
ReplyDeleteI do think he'll start and be a solid player, something like a Carlo Kemp or Donovan Jeter level, but I don't think he'll be an all conference performer like Morris. I know the injury was a big deal but that was in high school and we're talking about a college senior. There's room to grow beyond say Taylor Upshaw's level, but I don't see a future NFL player in McGregor and wonder if Derrick Moore won't end up being the one out there when it counts most.
That all said, I can't argue with the ranking. I even think he could be a little higher because EDGE is such an important position. Even though I have Stewart and Moore higher ranked this feels like the right spot for McGregor because Michigan is going to rotate through 4 edges regularly and need them all to step up. They played 5 against OSU (without Morris) and 6 against TCU when Morris was banged up. That rotation might tighten up this year with Morris, Upshaw, and Okie all out the door. The 5th option right now is probably unproven TJ Guy so Mcgregor staying healthy and productive is a big deal for this team.
McGregor will be a key player like the other 3 "starting" EDGEs but I don't think he's a game-changing guy. It's more about the relative lack of elite talent and so-so depth at EDGE that elevates his value.
If Michigan is NOT a national championship contender it'll likely be due to suboptimal talent and depth at EDGE and/or DB. Those two positions proved to be issues last year against TCU when challenged. Minter's blitzes can be used to generate pressure but there are costs to that approach. It's a much better situation if guys like Ojabo and Hutchinson are requiring double teams with "organic" pass rushes. Hoping to see a better season from our edges, especially on the pass rush, while maintaining the strong play against the run they showed with Morris and Harrell last year.
Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks in 29 career games going into 2021.
DeleteMcGregor has 2.5 sacks in 23 career games going into 2023.
The value of an EDGE player can't just be boiled down to sacks. Remember that Ojabo was in a rotation with Harrell who started 4 games in 2021. He started 12 more last year. He has 3.5 sacks for his career.
DeleteDon Brown used his EDGEs (Wormley, Gary, Hutchinson) very differently than McDonald/Minter.
Hutchinson was projected a top 2 round pick after 2020, despite the modest sack totals (notably in WAY more snaps than McGregor has seen through 3 years). Just like Gary was a an all conference player and top NFL draft pick despite modest sack totals. They impacted the game without "producing" sacks themselves.
McGregor projects as a UDFA. Even if he has much higher sack total than Rashan Gary's final college season (3.5) he will not be drafted anywhere close to Gary.
So this stat comparison is about as useful as me noting that Alex Orji has a better YPC than Blake Corum last year.
If a Michigan player ends up with 9 sacks, he's getting some pretty good draft opportunities. I'm not saying McGregor will - that's just my guess - but guys with good sack numbers typically get drafted in the first few rounds.
DeleteGraham (9.5 sacks): 1st round
Charlton (10 sacks): 1st round
Hudson (7 sacks): 5th round
Winovich (8 sacks): 3rd round
Uche (8.5 sacks): 2nd round
Hutchinson (14 sacks): 1st round
Ojabo (11 sacks): 2nd round
Morris (7.5 sacks): 5th round
According to the last 13 years or so, anyone with 8+ sacks in a season will get drafted in the first three rounds. So again, I know the projection hasn't come true or anything...but if McGregor gets 9 sacks, he's not going to be a UDFA.
Fun stat: Every player with 5+ sacks in the Jim Harbaugh era has been drafted except Mike McCray (who had 5.0 exactly). That group includes Morris, Hutchinson, Ojabo, Uche, Winovich, Paye, Wormley, Henry, Charlton, Hurst, Bush, Hudson, Gary, and Glasgow.
So even if McGregor just modestly tops Gary and gets 5+ sacks instead of 3.5, the odds are strongly in favor of getting drafted. (This also applies to Harrell, Moore, Stewart, etc.)
I agree if he gets 9 sacks he's probably getting drafted. I don't think either is happening in the next year but hope I'm wrong.
DeleteNine sacks? Yeah, I'm not that high on BM either ... bookmark this to tell me I was wrong!
ReplyDeleteNobody was that high on Mike Morris (7.5 sacks) or David Ojabo (11), either, and Aidan Hutchinson probably beat everyone's expectations when he notched 15 sacks. Michigan has had a pretty good pass rush for a while, and it has to come from somewhere. I'm not guaranteeing that McGregor is going to be that guy this year, but if not...then it's going to be Harrell...or Stewart...or someone.
Delete@Thunder "It has to come from somewhere" is my logic for rushing yardage. You disavow it there but apply it here, which I think is backward. The difference is the EDGE rush is often about one guy winning a one on one matchup with another while rushing yards are typically about 11 guys (or at least 7) working together to execute a play. This can happen at RB but a RB can never do anything single-handedly without help while an EDGE player can make a massive game-altering play by himself. That's why an elite EDGE player is so much more valued than an elite RB. EDGE is a position where individual excellence can translate directly to outcomes.
DeleteThat's why you've seen guys like Hutchinson, Gary, Ojabo, Uche, and Charlton get drafted in the first couple rounds.
Michigan has been blessed with elite talent most seasons but last year and this year we are hunting the portal to fill gaps and have altered our recruiting approach from quality to quantity.
You are right that Michigan will generate a certain number of sacks regardless of this but the coaches talk about this every year. The how matters, and the how is dictated largely by the EDGE personnel. You've heard about the "right" to rush 4 because it's so important to the scheme. Michigan didn't earn that right and had to blitz a lot more often last year and you saw the trouble it caused against TCU. Minter is open about wanting that to change this year.
Ojabo came out of nowhere in 2021 (maybe in part due to 2020 COVID year stuff) but Morris was generally assumed to be a very good starter who might vie for all conference honors in 2022. Nobody that I'm aware of predicted first team all conference, that's true, but he wasn't exactly an unknown. It was maybe more like Taco Charlton's senior year where the breakout was bigger than expected for Morris, but nonetheless it was expected. When quality backups step into starting roles for departed NFL guys these kind of projections are made.
DeleteSo I suppose we can draw a parallel here to McGregor and assume he is going to make a big leap while stepping into a starting role. But I don't think that's going to happen that easily for McGregor because Derrick Moore is so firmly in the picture and supposedly neck-to-neck with McGregor for the starting spot. It's hard to say who was the better player last year (though McGregor finished strongly) because a sophomore is (generally) going to rise faster and higher than a senior.
Morris (when healthy) was seeing a ton of snaps and then the allocation to backups was split somewhat evenly between McGregor, Moore, Upshaw, and Okie. I don't have the sense that McGregor will be locking down the majority of meaningful snaps the way that Morris and Hutchinson did. So that's part of why I don't see McGregor matching Morris' 7.5 sacks let alone exceeding them to approach double digits.
Then again some of this stuff is random. McGregor could get 3 alone against ECU. The more telling measures will be how many snaps he earns, where he ends up on all conference lists, and if there is interest for the NFL draft. My guess is he will start but also be back in college for year 5, unlike his predecessors; Morris, Hutchinson, and Gary.
I would love to be wrong about McGregor. I think he's solid but just a guy (at least by Michigan standards, which are very high).
DeleteIf he's the starter and JAG, it's a relative weak spot compared to the NFL guys that OSU, PSU, Georgia, and Alabama are going to put out at that spot.
That said, he's a very high floor player. As Roanman says below, he can be effective beyond a pure rushing role one on one against tackles. He can stunt, he can drop into coverage, he can play the run. In other words he's got a lot of the same stuff that makes Harrell a quality player.
...but also the stuff that keeps him from being a great one. I'd like to ALSO see that play-call-adjusting rush threat that we've had in times past with Woodley, Clark, Winovich, Uche, Ojabo, etc. Moore and Stewart seem like the more likely candidates to me, but if it comes from McGregor that's even better.
I think that McGregor may well lose some sack opportunities because he can cover some. I think you will see him being long and tall in the shallow flat on outside stunts more than you will the other edges. I think also that this will improve his draft stock and of course his value to the team. He'll get his coming around the corner, but I think that Stewart and Moore cumulatively will get sent more than McGregor.
ReplyDeleteHe's a really nice big athlete that will definitely have to be accounted for on every snap and as such can really promote some bad choices in blocking assignments. I'm hoping that he's standing in line for the Juggs machine.
Roanman