Different game, same result. Michigan has started this season with some remarkable consistency, if a lack of explosiveness. The Wolverines beat the Scarlet Knights, a Big Ten team, by a 24-point margin a week after beating BGSU, a MAC team, by 25 points. That came a week after a 28-point win over UNLV, which followed a 27-point victory over ECU. Michigan points, from week one onward: 30, 35, 31, 31. Opponent points: 3, 7, 6, 7. Michigan now leads the country in scoring defense, giving up just 5.8 points per contest. Oklahoma and Ohio State are tied for #2 at 8.5 points allowed per game.
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Something is missing from Michigan's defense, though. Allowing 5.8 points per game is certainly not sustainable throughout the rest of the season, so the non-conference schedule difficulty is certainly playing a part. (Alabama's 2011 defense allowed 8.2 points per game, the lowest number of the past fifteen seasons.) Playing three patsies and then Rutgers to start the year doesn't provide much of a test. But Michigan does seem to be lacking some of the speed and playmaking ability of more recent units. I think cornerback Josh Wallace is definitely a downgrade from D.J. Turner II, and the lack of an explosive pass rusher continues to be a concern. Michigan is tied for #62 in sacks (9 so far), so unless the Wolverines can find a more consistent way to rush the passer, the secondary is going to really be tested by teams with better quarterbacks, such as Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State.
Something is missing from Donovan Edwards, too. Four games into the year, do-it-all back Donovan Edwards is really only doing stuff in the receiving game. He had 6 carries for just 13 yards in this one and is averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the year. He has yet to score a touchdown this season. In this particular game, he seemed hesitant to hit the hole at times and showed some really odd vision. Rutgers does have a solid defense, but Blake Corum had 21 carries for 97 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns. It's rare that a running back truly seems to be in a funk - unless you're talking about aging NFL backs - but so far this season, this is probably the most inexplicable drop-off in production since Ricky Powers in the early 1990s. (Powers averaged 4.9, 5.2, and 4.8 yards/carry in his first three years before dropping to 3.6 yards/carry as a senior in 1993.) There's still a lot of time left for him to find his rhythm, but it's been a little ugly so far. In the off-season, we were counting on him leaving for the NFL after 2023, but he's not going to garner much high-round interest unless he improves his play and his production.
I secretly like Rutgers. Okay, don't get me wrong. I went to their stadium and it sucked. And I don't like Greg Schiano. And I don't want Rutgers to actually become any kind of power. But they're kind of a fun team to watch under Schiano. They play aggressive, scrappy defense and they're willing to do different things on offense, because they know they don't have the guys to actually win big matchups. If you gave former offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson a chance with better talent, I bet they could have had some explosive games, but he had Noah Vedral at quarterback. Now there's a decent quarterback in Gavin Wimsatt, but the overall talent is just so-so. Rutgers might be kind of the new Northwestern in that they're not actually good, but they're good enough to scare you a little bit.
Mike Sainristil earned the Honorary De'Veon Smith Award for Disappearing Before Scoring a Touchdown. Sainristil got burned early on for a 69-yard touchdown by Christian Dremel when the former slipped and blew the coverage, but Sainristil made up for it later by intercepting a screen on 4th-and-1 and returning it for a score. I really had no idea where the ball was once Wimsatt threw it, but it looked like one of those catches that ends up in dual possession with the tie going to the offense . . . or maybe it got batted to the ground . . . or maybe it got tipped and ended up in a lineman's hands . . . but then Sainristil appeared, racing 71 yards for the score to really put the game away and take a 24-7 lead. It was a great read and break by Sainristil, and then he showed excellent balance to avoid going down to a knee before creeping out of the morass and into the open field.
Figure out the kickoff return unit. Maybe this is analytics or something, but BGSU and now Rutgers have started taking advantage of Michigan's kickoff return team. Last week it was a fumble from Max Bredeson and a muffed kick by Braiden McGregor. This week it was a muffed kick from Semaj Morgan (returned for 8 yards) and a pooch kick to walk-on Joe Taylor (returned for 13 yards). Michigan is now #120 in kickoff return average (14.4 yards/return). Personally, I think the best answer might be the slumping guy mentioned above - one Donovan Edwards - but that's probably unlikely to happen. Regardless, nobody wants to see Bredeson, McGregor, and Taylor returning kicks for the University of Michigan. The odd thing is that teams are kicking away from the primary returner when Michigan doesn't really have anyone scary returning kicks. I guess 6'2", 239 lb. former linebacker Kalel Mullings lined up deep is putting the fear of God into opposing kickoff units, because nobody wants to kick to him. Hell, what would it look like if Jim Harbaugh put Alex Orji, the best kick returner of all-time, back there to receive? Opponents might just kick it out of bounds every time.
Offensive stuff. I don't chart this kind of thing, but it sure seemed like Michigan latched onto an unbalanced look for a huge chunk of this game. They used what's called a "nasty" split between the strongside offensive tackle and the tight end, plugging an H-back in between them. And they would have two unbalanced receivers over on the strongside, leaving the slot receiver ineligible. It was not a new formation for them, but they did seem to use it more than normal.
I think you hit the nail on the head on defense. The combo of secondary questions and lack of elite pass rush is concerning against OSU and PSU. Wallace is what he is. It felt like Rutgers might have been trying to pick on him but they don't have the horses to do it for long. Seeing Johnson out there over Sabb against Rutgers was disheartening. Michigan has an excellent top 4 in the secondary but they'll need 6-8.
ReplyDeleteStill not concerned about Donovan Edwards. Blake Corum's YPC is down from last year's first 4 games too. It's 33 carries and he looks better than ever as a receiver. Edwards is fine. Still taking bets if anyone thinks this is a lingering issue and not a random blip. The NFL doesn't care about production. If you want to see a big drop off look no further than future NFL player Fitz Toussaint.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/fitzgerald-toussaint-1.html
Interesting about kickoffs but that's also extremely low volume given how infrequently opposing teams have scored.
I share Thunder's burgeoning respect for the Rutger team. Yesterday's game felt in control the whole time and that's a good sign. It looks like October will be more of the same. Really wish we had Maryland or PSU scheduled earlier in the year. This year's schedule is terrible.
The DEs probably are what they are but perhaps more concerning is when Michigan blitzed, Rutger easily picked it up everytime I noticed it.
DeleteI grew frustrated that Rutger was bullying Wallace. It's not like their pass game was even close to good, but they seemed to believe he was Genon Green in 2020, and they were going to try to sparty their way to victory
ReplyDeleteDTs are beasts; DEs are not producing what we'll need. I'm hoping (expecting?) that improves to at least last year's level
Sooner or later teams will have to respect JJ, Roman & Loveland enough to leave a big hole for Edwards to work with. But he's not going to create on his own from a Counter play ... I'd like to see some creativity; dude is an elite athlete just waiting to explode
With respect to the kick returners, is it that teams are kicking to our up-backs rather than our deep returners? If so, provided we don't fumble the kick away, are we achieving the same starting field position, on average, as kicking deep to a good returner? In other words, the gamble by opposing teams may be for a fumble recovery, but if they hold onto the ball then Michigan's starting field position on those kicks might be as good as a decent deep kick return.
ReplyDeleteAgree. Michigan can put Edwards back there but if 90% of the job is fair catching, watching the ball kicked into the EZ, and pop kicks to guys in front of you, it won't make much difference in anything either.
DeleteI, strangely, have pretty much always liked Rutgers. Ok, ok, maybe not always, but for sure going back to 1989 when we beat them for our one National Championship in basketball. Rumeal Robinson being very cool at the line that Monday evening.
ReplyDeleteAnd actually, I like Schiano as a coach. He screwed up in a big way when he left. Both he and they would have a helluva lot more wins had he stayed and we likely would not have snagged Chris Partridge and by extension none of the New Jersey guys he brought in.
Shiano does indeed want to bully you if he can, but Corum is right. Presently, we are the bullies around here.
That they had Aaron Lewis playing caused me to pay attention to our big defensive ends more than I typically would. Derrick Moore had a very stout game and seemingly was around the football all day, so much so that I checked the participation list to see if Braiden MacGregor played, and was surprised to see that he got the start. He had no tackles or assists. I thought Lewis played well.
While they both feel bigger, I think that neither Corum nor Edwards are as explosive as they were last year.
Like pretty much everyone else I read, or even know that have an opinion that I'll entertain, I don't get Hinton out there. He is massive and when he gets his hands on you, you're gonna get moved most times, but he feels tentative and looks like he's thinking. Never a good thing playing games with balls.
I haven't bothered to figure out who missed the tackle on the touchdown as I am pretty comfortable with our safeties, but that was a bad miss. Made me think of myself a little bit playing high school football. I hated film day.
Just FYI ... Michigan played Seton Hall for the championship in basketball in 1989. Heckuva game, and Robinson was cool at the line to ice that. I wasn't a big fan of Robinson and Fisher the next year, as it seems Robinson was doing too much schoolyard B-ball, and Fisher was allowing it.
DeleteIt was Rod Moore. Rust, I guess
DeleteI was more bothered to still see QJohnson out there. Young guys have to break through sooner or later
I think you're too hard on Johnson. He was a very good athlete coming in, maybe as good as plus. He's been here long enough in this system to be playing fast within it, and I have not seen a lot of missed reads or out of position from him. I'm in 100% agreement with the guys at MGoBlog on boring safeties.
DeleteI think linebacker is the toughest position to play in football now days if only because everybody is always scheming you into the wrong place/direction, but safety is a very close next for pretty much the same reason, and when you miss that tackle in the middle of the field, it's 6.
I'll take the veteran safety that can run.
Boring Safeties don't miss tackles, and Johnson missed a few in the first two weeks. There's also the brain fart in the playoffs
DeleteVery limited back there. We need better
I agree with JE. Johnson isn't boring, unfortunately. He was dinged for several mistakes during cupcake season per Mgoblog. He also played about 8 snaps against TCU and busted a coverage giving up a huge play to set up a score. That's at the end of his senior year and now he's in year 5 and still making mistakes.
DeleteIf Sabb isn't passing him by November it's a bad sign.
You are correct. Now I hate Rutgers too.
ReplyDeleteI like the win. I hate Rutgers because it’s year four of Schiano 2 and he is the only coach in America that was asked a question do you feel pressure to win after three terrible seasons in the Big Ten His answer stated I’ll be here as long as I want be here. Did it take Beliema years to be playing competitive at Illinois ? No Last point there is always the stain of what Mike McQueary with no reason to lie state Schiano knew of what Sandusky was doing at Penn State
DeleteWoo, nobody likes my thinking today. Alas!
ReplyDeleteI do like Schiano as a coach. His teams mostly show up, pretty much always play sound and hit. To say Rutgers’ stadium sucks is … understatement and kind. Never been in their football building, but the entirety of the place has for the most part a tired quality to it. It’s tough to win at Rutgers, nearly impossible in my mind.
If you’re comparing Bielema at Wisconsin, that’s completely unfair, Bielema was hired specifically to change nothing. Bielema at Illinois, maybe. But while Illinois ain’t here. It’s way double better than Rutgers, mostly across the board without regard to category.
With regards to Sandusky we/you know nothing about what Schiano knew and less about what he did. We have heresay that we can choose to believe or not. We have a similar problem here with St. Bo’s now tarnished legacy. We can believe what we choose. Sparty has the same problem presently. We may all choose to delight in Sparty’s troubles, I know for sure that I am, but we don’t know excrement for sure. Which in this case will only drag the whole thing out. Tee-hee. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving fan base.
Schiano likely will be there as long as he wants. Rutgers knows they can only go backwards if they make a change.
Roanman
Stray thoughts.
ReplyDeleteAre we hyping up Semaj Morgan enough? That was quite a catch for a guy who is supposed to be an AJ Henning type. Maybe more Gallon/Bell trajectory?
I may have overreacted with the Johnson/Sabb concerns above. Sounds like Sabb was dealing with an injury. I am slightly relieved to hear that.
The secondary injuries are really piling up this year but thankfully none have yet been identified as major impacts other than perhaps Walker missing valuable development time and probably ruling himself out of the mix for a rotation role. McBurrows can't stay healthy. Berry and Sabb going down at the same time is a bummer for sure. Hill and Waller pass the eye test and hopefully one is ready by late Nov.
OSU's offense seems to be undergoing a Don Brown to Mike McDonald type of conversion after a crisis of getting waxed by their rival. It's more subtle than that (as it should be given OSU hasn't exactly been shut out the last 2 years) but there's a clear drive to toughen up and be more diverse on that side of the ball. You can't just throw fastballs, even if they're coming at 100mph.
There's a lot of time until Thanksgiving but it's less important how dominant OSU looks in the midst of their conversion than the trajectory of the change. There's certainly room for optimism on our side, there's no guarantee that OSU's attempt to change will work and they may just be wasting their time working on weakness while eroding their strength as a passing juggernaut. But it's also something that could be an antedote to Michigan's potent ground pounding. We bully bullies, but OSU hasn't been trying to be a bully under Day and now maybe they want to be. Just something to keep an eye on for that school down south.
A win at ND is an accomplishment regardless of how it was acheived. It's funny that Day chose to celebrate by busting open an egg on his own forehead.
PSU/OSU is going to be a fun one to watch from our side in a few weeks.