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Friday, October 6, 2023

Preview: Michigan at Minnesota

 

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #31 in rushing offense (184 yards/game) and #33 in yards per carry (4.95). Blake Corum is at 5.74 yards per carry and is tied for the national lead rushing touchdowns with 9 despite being tied for #31 in rushing attempts. (The other two players with 9 scores are Marshall's Rasheen Ali and Georgia State's Marcus Carroll, who have 91 and 115 carries, respectively, compared to Corum's 74.) Kalel Mullings had his first kind of breakout game with 5 carries for 43 yards last week and now has 15 attempts for 100 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown last Saturday. Donovan Edwards has been clunking along at 3.34 yards/carry (3.43 last week, though!) so we're still waiting for him to show his elite capabilities in the open field. Minnesota is #54 in rushing defense (127.2 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per carry (4.18). Somehow they held North Carolina to 2.84 yards/carry a few weeks ago, but last week Louisiana-Lafayette carved them up for 177 yards on just 27 attempts. Freshman linebacker Maverick Baranowski (6'3", 230) leads the team with 35 tackles, followed by senior safety Jack Henderson (6'3", 215) with 30 and sophomore safety Darius Green (6'1", 200) with 27. The Golden Gophers play a 3-4 look with senior Kyler Baugh (6'2", 305) at nose tackle, where he has 4.0 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks on the year. Baranowski has 3.0 tackles for loss and JACK linebacker Danny Striggow (6'5", 255) has 4.0, so they're decent at getting into the backfield at times. But Michigan should have good success in the run game.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.


PASS OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #74 in passing offense (227.4 yards/game), but the efficiency is there with 9.8 yards/attempt (#17) and they rank #10 in PER. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is #5 in PER as an individual and #3 in completion percentage (79.0%). But you know who's #1, both literally and, you know, statistically? Roman Wilson. Yes, receiver Wilson wears the #1 jersey and also ranks #1 in touchdown receptions with 8 (tied with LSU's Brian Thomas, whose 33-to-19 reception advantage is significant.) Wilson averages 17.2 yards/catch and had a ridiculous touchdown grab secured on the back of a Nebraska player's helmet last week. Cornelius Johnson has 15 catches for 256 yards, and his 17.1 yards/catch is just a tiny bit behind Wilson's . . . but with just 1 touchdown reception so far. Michigan's line is tied at #4 in sacks allowed per game (0.6), which is helped out by the mobile J.J. McCarthy, who averages 7.3 yards per carry and scored a TD on a scramble last week. Minnesota is #78 in passing defense (238.2 yards allowed/game) and they're #73 in passing efficiency defense. That's despite being tied for #4 in the country with 8 interceptions, led by senior strong safety Tyler Nubin (6'2", 210) with 3 picks. The aforementioned Henderson has 2. Minnesota is #65 in sacks with 2.2 per game and is led by Striggow (3.0), Baugh (2.5), and junior Jah Joyner (1.5). The weak spots are the corners with senior Elon transfer Tre'von Jones (6'0", 180) and junior corner Justin Walley (5'11", 190).
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan ranks #14 in rush defense (85.2 yards allowed/game) and #27 in yards per carry allowed (3.11). Last week the Wolverines held everything in check until the very end of the game, when backup-to-the-backup running back Joshua Fleeks broke off a 74-yard touchdown against a bunch of Michigan's second- and third-stringers. Linebacker Junior Colson paces the team in tackles (24), followed by fellow starting linebacker Michael Barrett (19) and backup inside linebacker Ernest Hausmann (16). Defensive tackle Mason Graham (10 tackles, 2 TFL, 0.5 sacks) hurt his hand a couple weeks ago, but he is expected back against the Gophers. Minnesota running back Darius Taylor (5'11", 210) has been a revelation, running 87 times for 532 yards (6.1 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns. Backups Sean Tyler, Zach Evans, and Bryce Williams have combined for 81 carries for 351 yards (4.3 yards/carry) and 2 scores. Last week with Taylor out due to injury, they combined for 51 carries for 201 yards (3.94 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns in a 35-24 win over Louisiana-Lafayette. Up front on the line, Michigan transfer Chuck Filiaga is gone and he has been replaced by 6'7", 335 lb. Martes Lewis at right guard . . . but Lewis is a step down. The best lineman is 6'7", 315 lb. right tackle Quinn Carroll, who transferred from Notre Dame. It's not a great offensive line, but Minnesota has allowed the ninth fewest tackles for loss this season. This might be tough sledding anyway, but if Taylor doesn't play, it's going to be very difficult for Minny to move the ball.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #11 in pass defense (160.6 yards allowed/game) and #37 in yards per attempt allowed (6.6). They're one of two teams (along with Penn State) to have allowed just 1 receiving touchdown this year. This is all pretty impressive stuff considering starting safety Rod Moore has been injured, and when he's been on the field, he hasn't been himself . . . and the other starting safety, Makari Paige, has also missed time due to injury . . . and Freshman All-American cornerback Will Johnson has also been injured . . . and Mike Sainristil got hurt last week . . . and the only consistent player has been UMass transfer corner Josh Wallace. The Wolverines have found a decent collective pass rush effort, but no single pass rusher has really separated himself this season. Minnesota is #126 in passing offense (149 yards/game), #117 in yards per attempt (6.1), and #115 in passing efficiency. Sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (6'4", 215) has completed 58.7% of his throws for 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He seems to be playing better the past couple weeks, though, completing more than 73% of his passes and averaging at least 8.1 yards per attempt against Northwestern and Louisiana-Lafayette in that time. Senior receiver Daniel Jackson (6'1", 200) is the main guy through the air with 20 catches for 252 yards and 4 touchdowns. Sixth year senior tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford (6'7", 270) has 12 catches for just 66 yards this season. Minnesota is tied at #27 with just 1.2 sacks allowed per game. The Gophers have been relatively RPO-happy over P.J. Fleck's time, so that helps with the pass protection when defenders have to hesitate to see whether it's a run or pass.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Minnesota players who were offered by Michigan: DL Hayden Schwartz, RB Darius Taylor
  • Minnesota players from the state of Michigan: LB Taylor Stolsky (Portage Central), RB Darius Taylor (Walled Lake Western), QB Drew Viotto (Walled Lake Western)
  • Michigan does not have any players from Minnesota

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...

  • On October 24, 2020, Michigan pummeled Minnesota by a score of 49-24
  • QB Joe Milton completed 15/22 passes for 225 yards and 1 touchdown while also rushing for 52 yards and 1 score
  • RB Hassan Haskins had 6 carries for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • RB Zach Charbonnet ran 4 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown
  • DT Donovan Jeter returned a fumble forced by LB Michael Barrett for a TD
  • Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan (now an analyst for the Gophers) completed 18/31 throws for 197 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
  • Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim ran 26 times for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns

PREDICTION

  • Michigan 42, Minnesota 13 (if Darius Taylor plays)

7 comments:

  1. Line looks low, -19. 35-6. No points against first team D. UM should be able to do what they want. Look for improvement from the LT. Edwards. CB1.
    I would like to see O'Leary play.
    Wish list
    JJ goes long to wilson for a 70 yarder.
    Corum dusts a Safety on route to a 50 yarder.
    Johnson picks a pass.
    6 sacks off of a 4 man rush.
    Henderson locks down the LT.
    no injuries
    shut out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No injuries being the most important one.

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  2. I expect a whoopin. If you can't defend the run against us you are dead.

    Minnesota ranks 88th in rush defense efficiency and 100th in success rate. Awful! Our rushing stats are nothing exceptional so far this year (21st in success rate, 64th in per play efficiency) but anyone reading this blog knows that's not the full story. We've been treating the season like a glorified practice - evaluating different personnel groups and working on new plays.

    Our pass game stats are vastly superior. (11th in success rate, and 6th in per play efficiency.) Harball baby! We may not throw as much as other schools but doesn't mean we can't be more effective. It's quality not quantity over here. Now that our QB is a legitimate NFL first rounder, he has earned Harbaugh's trust early in games. JJ is still just 20 too. But Minnesota's pass D is better than their rush D so it's strength vs strength LOL.

    The fancy stats like Minny's rush O and Michigan's rush D better than the conventional numbers. Minny ranks in the 30s nationally, so their run game's demise has probably been overstated in some corners. Like Thunder points out there's signs of optimism there for the Gophers, but Michigan's rush D is dominant in both success rate (#4) and efficiency (#6). Opponent caveats apply but still - Minnesota's best unit is probably overmatched.

    Meanwhile, their pass game is a straight up disaster (ranking in the 100s), so whatever secondary issues we have to work through are not likely to be tested tomorrow.

    For a road game at night and coming off a game where almost everything went right on our side, you could argue for a let down game. I almost hate to say it but -- this should be a very comfortable win. There isn't much hope for the gophers.

    I don't really expect McCarthy to match Milton's impressive 2020 opener performance or for the run game to go off for 250 yards again...but I wouldn't be surprised either.

    Michigan between 30 and 50 points Minnesota between 0 and 20.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 38 - 10

    Boring. But stay healthy & I can live with boring!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two(!) pick6s from getting the score right

      Not much to nitpick at. Minnesota was determined to run, and had a couple successful moments. Otherwise, we dominated as we should

      But if I had to be picky:
      - JJ needs to not lower his shoulder. Love the heart, but that first TD could have led to an injury
      - Roman (on the run) might as well get OOB too
      - I was hoping for Hinton to redshirts, but that's a done deal. Hopefully he's ready next year

      JJ was TRULY impressive. Doesn't need coaches to mask deficiencies, great numbers, great playmaking, and no ugly mistakes

      GO BLUE

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    2. *I also appreciate that Edwards is getting more touches, and in different ways. Soon ...

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    3. Rest assured JE that I don't think any less of you for double posting or replying to yourself. Like Edward's traditional RB skills -- it's fine!

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