RUSH OFFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan ranks #38 in rushing offense (185.2 yards/game) and #26 in yards per carry (5.07). Blake Corum's 5.95 yards/carry ranks sixth in the conference, while backup Donovan Edwards's mystifying 3.47 yards/carry ranks #32, lowest of any qualifying back in the conference. Kalel Mullings has stepped up his game with 23 carries for 147 yards and 1 touchdown this year. Michigan seems to have found a solidified starting five up front with Arizona State transfer La'Darius Henderson at left tackle and Karsen Barnhart at right tackle. Indiana is #91 in rushing defense (156.4 yards allowed/game) and allowed Akron's Lorenzo Lingard over 8.0 yards/carry a few weeks ago, along with 10+ yards per rush to Maryland's Antwaine Littlejohn despite his not getting above 3.7 against any other opponent. They give up 4.74 yards per carry, which ranks #108 in the nation. Having watched some of Indiana this year, their tackling is the worst I've seen it in Tom Allen's seven years at the helm. Fifth year senior middle linebacker Aaron Casey (6'2", 235 lbs.) leads the squad with 43 stops, followed by sophomore strong safety Phillip Dunnam (6'1", 190) and senior free safety Louis Moore (6'1", 190) with 35 and 25, respectively.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS DEFENSE
In recent weeks, well respected author and Fox journalist Bruce Feldman has started to pump up J.J. McCarthy as a potential top two quarterback pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, generally ceding that USC's Caleb Williams is the #1 guy and then saying McCarthy and UNC's Drake Maye could compete to be the second guy off the board. Michigan is #73 in passing offense (229.7 yards/game) but #7 in passing efficiency. McCarthy is #1 in the Big Ten by a wide margin in passing efficiency, with a 24-point lead over OSU's Kyle McCord. Roman Wilson went without a touchdown last week for just the second time this year, but he still managed over 18 yards/catch and is tied for #3 in the country with 8 scores. Tight end Colston Loveland caught his first touchdown of the year against the Golden Gophers. Michigan has allowed just 0.5 sacks per game, which ties them for #3 nationally. Indiana is tied for #106 at notching just 1.6 sacks per contest, and they're led by Casey and Western Michigan transfer Andre Carter (6'5", 270) with 2 each. Carter had 12.5 career sacks for the Broncos before arriving in Bloomington and moves around the defensive line. Indiana is #50 in pass defense (211.8 yards allowed/game) and #47 in passing efficiency defense. They rank #64 in yards per attempt allowed (7.2) and have allowed 6 touchdowns while making 6 interceptions. Dunnam has 3 picks and Moore has 2 takeaways. Overall, it's an inexperienced group on the back end without much of a pass rush up front, so Michigan should be able to do what they want for the most part.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #13 in rush defense (90.8 yards allowed/game) and they're #23 with 3.1 yards allowed per carry. Last week it seemed like Minnesota found some creases early with its outside zone, but then they made some adjustments and held the Gophers to 3.0 yards/carry for the entire game. Linebackers Junior Colson (28), Michael Barrett (22), and Ernest Hausmann (21) lead the team in tackles, which is especially impressive for Hausmann, considering he's not a starter. Somehow defensive tackle Mason Graham is tied for #4 in tackles (16) despite missing two games with a thumb injury. Indiana's new offensive coordinator is former Northern Illinois and Temple head coach Rod Carey. And when I say "new," I mean he was installed over the bye week at the beginning of October. Indiana fired Walt Bell as O.C. and elevated Carey from his offensive analyst position. (He was a defensive analyst in 2021 and moved to offense for 2022.) Obviously, the Hoosiers can't make wholesale changes to their system mid-season, but surely some tweaks will occur. They rank #115 in rushing (110.2 yards/game) and #120 in yards per carry (3.18). Sophomore running back Jaylin Lucas (5'9", 170) leads the team with 49 carries for 212 yards (4.33 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns, followed closely by former Michigan - and Wake Forest - running back Christian Turner (5'11", 205) with 40 attempts for 177 yards and 2 scores. The Hoosiers allow 5.6 tackles for loss per game, which ranks at #71 nationally. It's a pretty weak offensive line, centered by senior Michigan transfer Zach Carpenter (6'5", 295), and Michigan should push them around up front.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #2 in pass defense (142.5 yards allowed/game) and #9 in passing efficiency defense. They allow 6.2 yards per attempt, which is #22 overall, and have allowed 2 touchdowns while making 7 interceptions. Granted, Minnesota has a weak passing offense and a subpar quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis, but Michigan had two pick-sixes last week from Will Johnson and Keon Sabb. Michigan is tied at #57 in sacks per game (2.33), led by Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart, who has come on in the past couple weeks with 3 sacks. Meanwhile, Indiana is #78 in passing offense (224 yards/game) and #95 in passing efficiency. Redshirt freshman Tayven Jackson (6'3", 215) was recruited by Michigan but does not have a ton to work with. His 61.7% completions and 7.5 yards/attempt look okay overall, but the past two games against Akron and Maryland have seen him go 28/55 for 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Fellow redshirt freshman Brendan Sorsby (6'3", 230) has also played some, completing 55.8% of his throws for 5.8 yards/attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, but his best work came late in the 44-17 loss to the Terrapins. Senior receiver Cam Camper (6'2", 195) averages 19.2 yards/catch but only has 13 receptions on the year, while Lucas has 19 catches but averages just 7.4 yards/catch. It used to seem like the Hoosiers had a mildly dangerous tight end most years, but I guess Michigan stole the one significant guy in A.J. Barner, so the tight ends aren't much of a factor . . . at least not in a good way. Michigan should be able to get after whoever plays quarterback pretty regularly, but Camper and Lucas might be able to combine for a couple chunk plays.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Indiana players from the state of Michigan include: DE Andre Carter (Cass Tech), RB David Holloman (Auburn Hills Avondale), OL Robby Kowalewski (East Grand Rapids), OL Max Longman (Portage Central)
- Players offered by Michigan include: C Zach Carpenter, QB Tayven Jackson, S Josh Sanguinetti, RB Christian Turner
- Indiana's Zach Carpenter and Christian Turner transferred from Michigan. Carpenter went straight to Indiana after Ann Arbor, but Turner took a stop at Wake Forest before going to Indiana this season
- Former Michigan strength and conditioning coach Aaron Wellman (under Brady Hoke) is now Indiana's Senior Assistant Athletic Director for Football Performance
- Former Michigan linebacker commit David Reese, who played at Farmington High School and eventually ended up a starting linebacker at Florida, is a defensive graduate assistant for the Hoosiers
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On October 8, 2022, Michigan beat Indiana by a score of 31-10
- Indiana and Michigan were tied 10-10 at halftime
- J.J. McCarthy went 28/36 for 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception
- Blake Corum ran 25 times for 124 yards and 1 touchdown
- Ronnie Bell caught 11 passes for 121 yards
- Indiana (now BGSU) QB Connor Bazelak completed 25/49 throws for 203 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
- Indiana WR/RB Jaylin Lucas ran 4 times for 45 yards and caught 3 passes for 20 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 48, Indiana 7
The game last year was a slog. JJ was completing passes but taking people off their feet.
ReplyDeleteCorum was running into a stacked box but did activated his cloaking device to get big runs.
The defense this y
Yeah, McCarthy's footwork was absolutely terrible last year. Watching those highlights from the Indiana game last year reminded me of how much he was just relying on arm strength and mindset instead of fundamentals.
DeleteYou can also see this year how little he's relying on running around like a chicken with his head cut off, which he did quite a bit last year. This year he has a plan and is getting the ball out on time. (There are always going to be sacks or hurries if the coverage is good or pressure comes immediately, but last year included some self-inflicted problems.)
Stop thunder. Players don't improve in the off-season
DeleteI'm anticipating a low scoring game - feel like this one will look closer to the first 3 games of the year. I'll go with 31-7 as my prediction.
ReplyDeleteIt could be lower scoring. I took rain into account when predicting the score. It depends on how things go. This honestly might be the worst team Michigan plays this year. But maybe the wrinkles from the new OC will help them sustain some drives.
DeleteThe title itself, "Senior Assistant Athletic Director for Football Performance" feels to be evidence that colleges are getting top heavy with management.
ReplyDeleteRoanman
Regardless of that, the guy is certainly failing, if the definition of football performance has anything to do with winning, or even being good at football.
DeleteRoanman
Indiana's offense is an embarrassment, even adjusting for their mediocre standards. Something like 90th in the country overall, depending on what stat you look at. But Tom Allen has put up some decent defenses at times, so maybe they'll put up a fight.
DeleteWell...analytics say we have the #11 success rate in the country on the ground and they say that we are going against an Indiana team that is #97 rush defense success rate. The one potential matchup where Indiana might not get blown off the ball in theory, is a blowout in Michigan's favor.
I would usually say there's a risk of an upset but I can't muster any reason to be concerned. Barner and Tuttle are in a better place and I hope our analysts are looking for other additions to scrape off the Hoosier carcass for next year.
Expecting fewer defensive TDs and more opponent punts this week... and lots of depth chart snaps in quarter 3.
37-7
Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings all get 100+ yards! :-)
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure we'll learn a single interesting thing from this game. Maybe Indiana will heave up a few passes to test the secondary a bit a couple times? Maybe our backups will get a chance to show us something? Another week another cupcake I hope we aren't getting too fat and happy.
ReplyDeleteHoping to see a big day from Donovan just to quiet the narratives about his struggles. But again -- health is the most important thing. Hopefully somebody hides JJ and Blake's helmets at half time.
I would like to see Walker get a substantial number of snaps at CB. The coaching staff seems intent on getting Keon Sabb ready for November and I'd love to see similar treatment for one of our young CBs.
DeleteHas JJ taken a snap in the 4th Q of any game this year?
ReplyDeleteYes and he's attempted 4 passes too.
Deletehttps://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/4433970/jj-mccarthy
Halftime hottake:
ReplyDeletewhile I loved the Tyler Morris punt return, half his offensive snaps should go to Edwards. Morris isn't going to worry a defense, but with the athleticism & versatility of Dono, we can get a lot more
Meanwhile, semaj morgan breaking two tackles to get his TD 💪🏽
DeleteHottake 2:
DeleteAmarion Walker isn't good at CB. Flat footed & leaning at the waiste while trying to jam his Receiver. Timid dive on his first attempt to make a tackle, and then curled up to try & tackle (a big) Sorsby. Plays like the kind of guy who makes a walk on WR look like an all-American ...
also, as soon as BHall's helmet came off, my house burst into calls for an Edwards TD. "Ladies & gentlemen, he got it" (Paul Bremner voice)
Nobody cares
DeleteReplying to my post three weeks later is textbook obsessed 😂
DeleteNobody cares but you emojiman
DeleteDon't be scared, take the bet
Deletehttp://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/10/michigan-52-indiana-7.html
Posting the same thing over and over. Across every thread. Desperate for Lank's attention...
DeleteIf there is any consolation to playing weak teams for 7 weeks, it is that it allows the coaching staff to let the young secondary get plenty of reps. But in those 7 games, I have not seen any of the young guys step up and claim the fourth corner backs spot behind Johnson, Sainristil and Wallace. We just have to pray these 3 guys do not get injured for the season.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I agree. Jyaire Hill looks like the next star at corner, but Walker, Pollard, McBurrows, Jones, etc. haven't shown anything.
DeleteI'm surprised you're not higher on Waller Thunder. He's ahead of Hill pretty clearly in the coaches eyes. Maybe you think they are sending Hill some kind of message?
DeleteThe big question I have is if 3 is enough. Are Johnson, Sainristil, and Wallace, even assuming 100% health, going to be able to handle every down against PSU and OSU. Past history says not.
At the point, given the dearth of options I wonder if Moore and/or Paige will be sliding down to nickel and Sabb and QJo will get more snaps, instead of any CB.
I think we'll have to get creative. Our Corners are a big-time weakness
DeleteJE - I'm not ready to go there but I do fear you could be right. We have just not faced any real threats yet so while Wallace has done fine against lower levels of competition we don't even know if he is going to get burnt crispy by OSU. I could see why OSU fan would be optimistic about it though.
DeleteTo Thunder's earlier points we can try to scheme our way around it. But that's easier said than done.