Name: Donovan Edwards
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 212 lbs.
High school: West Bloomfield (MI) West Bloomfield
Position: Running back
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked Edwards #13 and said he would be a part-time starting running back with 1,050 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 30 catches for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns (LINK). He ran 119 times for 497 yards and 5 touchdowns; he caught 30 passes for 249 yards; and he completed 1/1 pass for 34 yards.
TTB Rating: 90
Well, Nostramagnus did a great job with the 2023 predictions, because I predicted Edwards would catch 30 passes and he did.
We're just going to ignore the fact that I predicted 1,050 rushing yards (he had 497) and 8 touchdowns (he had 5) and 350 receiving yards (he had 249) and 4 receiving touchdowns (he had 0).
Just ignore it.
Edwards struggled in 2023 by a lot of metrics. First, his production was way down, and his yards per carry was among the lowest of qualifying running backs in the Big Ten. He wasn't breaking big plays . . . or tackles. He supposedly started seeing a sports psychologist because of some of his on-field frustrations. And when he couldn't eke out a short yardage touchdown, he campaigned visibly to stay on the field . . . and the coaching staff still replaced him with Blake Corum to ensure they would score.
That's the bad stuff.
The good stuff is that he broke off a big touchdown run against Penn State and had two huge touchdown runs early in the national championship game (41- and 46-yarders) that set the tone against Washington. So he had his moments, but not nearly as many of them as we expected.
Now Corum is out of the way, and Edwards should be the unquestioned #1 back. He's on the cover of NCAA '25 and is rated as one of the top 50 players in the game. He got up to 214 pounds by the spring (now listed at 212) after being right around 200 earlier in his career, and the added weight/strength showed in the spring when he seemed a little more willing to try to bring the contact to defenders. A wholesale shift from finesse back to ground-and-pounder is unlikely, but if he can add a little thunder to his lightning for 2024, that would be an improvement. I have faith that Michigan's coaching staff is going to restore some of his confidence and figure out ways to help him return to his 2022 form, especially if he's on the field with run threat Alex Orji and fellow running back Kalel Mullings at times, because those are three dynamic runners that teams would have a very difficult time figuring out how to defend.
Prediction: Starting running back; 1,100 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 25 catches for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns
Give him the ball 20 times. There i fixed it. 2022 Donovan is here
ReplyDeleteDesparate for content, I actually read the MGo previews this year. A lot of criticism for The Don, even while acknowledging his great accomplishments & potential
ReplyDeleteLove me some Mullings, but this offense has so many question marks that any big play from Don can be a game breaker
Agree with Lank: get him into a rhythm and enjoy the show. Variety is key; be creative
I know I was a big doubter against Orji as a passer, but one reason I wanted so badly for the hype to be real is Edwards. With the threat of a running QB, defenses would give The Don a crack for his home runs ...
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure (very doubtful) Warren - and this WR room - can create a pass threat that opens up similar possibilities
Not many opportunities in game 1 but Don maybe lost a step due to the weight gain. Did he really gain 10-15 pounds? Seems like a bad idea given his success in 2022 as a feature back with a lower weight.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's the weight gain. Edwards improved in the 2nd Half. As the OL gave him lanes, and he patiently burst through them
DeleteIn the 1st Half there was nothing opening up, so only Mullings was able to get across the LoS, dragging dudes along with him
Meh...I'm not so sure it's the weight gain. Also, he was listed at 210 last year and he's listed at 212 now. If two pounds makes a big difference in quickness/speed, that's concerning.
DeleteI know I predicted him to have a bounce back year and ranked him #5, but we might have to consider that maybe he's just not all that great unless he has giant lanes to run through. Mullings was better than Edwards from the very beginning of this game. The stats and PFF grades (70 to 60) show it, and Mullings also had more carries than Edwards, probably because Mullings was getting the job done and Edwards wasn't.
Giant lanes? Wow, what a shocking revelation ...
DeleteIn all seriousness, vision & patience were two things pointed out (along with strength & balance) during his FR season. I think we saw the former I'm the second half
Next week is a Big Game Blues type of game, do I wouldn't be surprised to see Edwards take one to the house
" the added weight/strength showed in the spring when he seemed a little more willing to try to bring the contact to defenders. "
Deletevs.
"I'm not so sure it's the weight gain. Also, he was listed at 210 last year and he's listed at 212 now. If two pounds makes a big difference in quickness/speed, that's concerning."
Does the 2 pounds make a difference or not? I think the assertion of weight affecting outcomes can be pretty dubious but if we're going to credit weight change for benefits then shouldn't we consider that it could go the other way?
--------------------------------------
We've been having this conversation for over a decade now and my position has remained consistent - if your OL is generating big holes then speed and big play ability is heightened in importance (e.g., A-train) and if your OL is not, then tackle-breaking and getting extra yardage consistently is more important (e.g., Mike Hart) than frequency of ripping off long runs.
The guys we've argued about with regard to speed include Michael Shaw, Ty Isaac, and Don Edwards. The tough extra yardage guys have included Deveon Smith and Kaleel Mullings. We've both argued for different guys on different sides of this coin at different times.
I did not see many big holes yesterday for either back and Mullings is a bigger more physical runner. He out produced and outperformed Edwards yesterday in that context. We'll see about the rest of the season but if Edwards is going to continue to get the ball about as often as he got it when he was backing up Corum then you can expect results that are more similar to 2023 than the end of 2022. And I don't mean just the big runs to finish off Ohio State in 2022, I mean the Purdue game where he had one long one and still produced a 125 yards on 24 carries excluding that long one.
It's a tough call because Don has proven himself as both capable of being a bellcow back in 2022 and (more sporadically) as a big play threat as rotational player or outright backup. But we've also seen him look unexceptional as a backup/rotation guy to start 2023 and again against Fresno State. When given 8 or 10 carries a game or whatever - Edwards can produce some dud games. Is he going to produce dud games if given the ball 20+ times? It hasn't happened yet.
At this point it feels like the coaches need to make a leap of faith and either trust Don to be the guy or split duties with Mullings and risk Don not being in his rhythm or playing up to his potential.
I don't know the answers to the above conundrum. Coaches probably have to just go with their gut. I'll just say that I don't see this pass game as being very dynamic with the QB position being what it is -- so Edward's ability to turn a 15 yard run into an 80 yard run maybe essential. OTOH if you're running into stacked boxes all day because your QBs aren't scaring anyone, those opportunities are going to be infrequent and then you might have to lean to Mullings to grind.
-------------------
Bottom line:
I think there is some work to do to clarify roles on offense. Not just at RB.
Frankly, for as good of a runner as Orji is, he's not really a break a big one type of ballcarrier either. He's a power rusher, more similar to Mullings than Edwards or Denard.
Instead of using him to run the ball at seemingly random points (when you could be giving the ball to Edwards or Mullings instead) I'd like to see Orji be used in short yardage situations (make the defense pay for cheating on the RB), red zone (long passes are irrelevant), or full drives where he is trusted to pass and run.
I don't really think I've argued for speed guys as much as I've argued for guys who gain yards. I do tend to like speed guys more because of the threat of big plays, but I don't think I've ever argued for a speed guy who has a low YPC over a power guy who has a high YPC. For example, I never argued for O'Maury Samuels over anyone, nor have I been clamoring for Cole Cabana to get a ton of playing time.
DeleteI like production. If a dude is gaining 5.2 yards/carry and another guy is averaging 4.0, I want the guy getting 5.2 yards/carry. It just so happens that the slow guy (De'Veon Smith) was the guy getting 4.2 yards/carry and the fast(er) guy (Ty Isaac) was getting 5.3 or whatever. And that's just one example.
For a couple years now, the "slow guy" (Kalel Mullings) has been getting 6 yards/carry and the "fast guy" (Donovan Edwards) has been getting 3.5 yards/carry or whatever.
BTW, as for Edwards himself, I was under the impression he added more weight. In fact, I remember Sam Webb talking about it and saying Edwards and/or the coaches thought he might have gotten too heavy. (I think he might have got up to something like 218 in the spring before cutting some weight.)
DeleteSo yeah, I think adding 8 pounds or so of muscle could bring some confidence and difference-making strength.
I don't think 2 pounds is going to make a ton of difference when it comes to speed/quickness. My weight can fluctuate +2/-2 pounds on any given day based on what I ate two days ago or how much water I drank. If I gain/lose 6-8 pounds, I notice it in how I look and how I feel.
Rewriting history is crazy
DeleteSo forget "RBs don't matter" ... the argument instead was RBs do in fact matter, depending on how big the hole is (or isn't) , and which type of RB has the ball ... ... the "Grind" RB is admittedly a thing now
And now it's okay to concede Edwards was "unexceptional" in 2o23 ... "dud games" even
There's nothing to disagree on anymore
GO BLUE
@ je93 8:24 a.m.
DeleteNobody is immune from it, I guess. Sam Webb was talking yesterday on MMQB about "Donovan Edwards getting hit more in the backfield than Kalel Mullings." I like Sam, but I think he has a special fondness for Edwards that clouds his judgment. Edwards is getting hit in the backfield because he isn't patient and/or doesn't have vision and/or doesn't have the ability to make jump cuts. Mullings was also seeing people in the hole or in the backfield, but he's able to make them miss or run through their arm tackles.
@Thunder
Delete"I've argued for guys who gain yards. "
Deveon Smith gained yards. 2235 of them, at 4.5 yards per carry while playing behind some woeful OLs. He went on to the play in the NFL. But he was slow, like Mike Hart.
You've argued for fast guys who put up better YPC than some of their competition (because they break some long runs utilizing their straight line speed) like Shaw and Isaac. Neither of them played in the NFL or even sniffed it really.
"For a couple years now, the "slow guy" (Kalel Mullings) has been getting 6 yards/carry and the "fast guy" (Donovan Edwards) has been getting 3.5 yards/carry or whatever."
Edwards averaged 5.9 YPC in the last 6 games of 2023. You decided he was struggling based on how he started 2023 when workload was limited and inconsistent. Edwards averaged 7.5 YPC in 2022, mostly at the end of 2022, less than 2 years ago. Before he gained weight.*
So no, Edwards hasn't been averaging 3.5 YPC for a couple years at all. He averaged that for 1 season, as a backup.
There's a lot of problems of using YPC as proof of performance. Basic statistics is one of them but here the issue is that it's deployed very inconsistently, to feed whatever narratives you want to have.*
Selective sampling has been the foundation of both your pro Ty Isaac perspectives and your anti Donovan Edwards stances, but both players have produced impressive YPC based heavily on their long runs. The difference is that Ty Issac was never given consistent playing time by the coaches (while competing with Deveon Smith, Chris Evans, and Karan Higdon) while Donovan Edwards has (while competing with Blake Corum, Hassan Haskins, and Karan Higdon).
Ty Isaac lost the RB competition at Michigan to Deveon Smith and when he tried to play after Michigan, in the same league as Smith, he was also handily outproduced. But you argued, for years, based on YPC that the coaches were making the wrong call.
*My weight gain argument is disingenuous. I don't think it's a problem. But you've decided that adding weight is a good thing for RBs and you'll say "see!" when weight gain is correlated with YPC but not "see!" when it isn't. Analysis by YPC in a nutshell.
Kind of ironic to call out Sam Webb for bias on RB takes. LOL. Your track record speaks for itself Thunder.
DeleteThe Michigan coaching staff played Edwards over Mullings all season long in 2023 and won a national title with that approach. Maybe their judgement is clouded too. LOL
...Or maybe their confidence in their assessments of players they see working everyday in practice isn't so flimsy. They don't just look at YPC in the moment, but the overall package of skills and abilities at the RB position. Thankfully for us, they didn't bench ol struggling Don Edwards before he ripped off two long TDs on the first two drives of the national championship game (where Michigan didn't score a non-Edwards TD until half way through the 4th quarter).
BTW Edwards was getting decent to good reviews well before Washington game, without a lot of production to show for it. It turns out blocking matters, varies from play to play, and it takes a whole lot of carries for that sort of variance to even out.
Delete@Jelly
Back to fantasizing about Lank? Please find the quote where I say all backs are the same. #noquotes
RBs don't matter doesn't mean all RBs are identical players. Never has. That's you making up an argument and conflating different things. Not surprising for a guy who can't comprehend the definition of comparison.
#caseclosed
#garbage
You aren't built for this.
@ Lank 11:24 a.m.
DeleteI'm not going to get into another running back argument with you about stuff from 5-10 years ago. The dead horse is dead.
Donovan Edwards has been struggling as a runner for the better part of the last 16 games. That's an entire NFL season's worth of games (well...prior to a couple years ago).
@ Lank 11:33 a.m.
DeleteI do tend to be biased...toward players who are playing well.
You've never heard me make excuses for "Well, this player didn't get the blocking that this other player got" or "The line must not like Cade McNamara because they didn't protect him but they protected J.J. McCarthy."
You either get the job done or you don't. Donovan Edwards isn't getting the job done. H
He's #31 in the Big Ten in yards per carry after week one, similar to the area he was in last year.
But never mind...it's bias...not stats...
@Lank, Moving the target = lying!
DeleteThe quote is & was "RBs don't matter" ... all along, you knew better & agreed. But just like "GARAGE," you were looking for an argument
#exposed
#onequote
#outsmarted
#caseclosed
@Thunder
Delete"Donovan Edwards has been struggling as a runner for the better part of the last 16 games."
FOR THE BETTER PART is doing a lot of work there. Edwards didn't produce an impressive YPC in the first 9 games when he was a backup getting single digit carries, FOR THE BETTER PART of that stretch. The rest of the year he did! Which coincided with a 3 game stretch where he had 10, 11, and 10 carries to close the year before a 3 game post-season that saw him get 14 carries and 143 yards on the ground, over 10YPC.
"You either get the job done or you don't" is your stance except when it isn't. Before that 9 games stretch (basically 2 months) -- he looked like a superstar. After that 9 game stretch - he looked like a superstar. Focus on those 9 games and YPC it's a FACT that he is playing poorly. Look beyond the 2 months and look at his career and it's a FACT that he's a talented and proven RB.
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For the better part of the last two years Donovan Edwards has looked like a superstar at Running Back. And 3 years, and 5 years....
Edwards has averaged 5.5 YPC for his career over 3 seasons and one game. Mullings has averaged 5.3 YPC.
So pick a different sample size and craft a different narrative - or pick and choose to back yours up as fact.
----------------------------------------------
Your Edwards takes are inconsistent. They are reactive and reactionary. Prone to recency bias.
In 2022, you didn't think Michigan had a chance with Edwards replacing Corum. They beat Ohio State, won the Big Ten, and then had a massive day on offense in the playoff, with Edwards being a huge part of that as a bellcow back.
Before 2023, you came away so impressed with the last few games of 2022 that you thought Edwards would somehow run for 1000 yards even though Blake Corum was healthy again. Edwards was going to be a backup and not likely to see much more than the 109 carries he got, but he would just be THAT good.
By mid-year 2023 you decided Edwards wasn't playing well -- and then he averaged almost 6YPC in the final 6 games and played a huge role in the national championship game.
So in the lead up to 2024 you proclaim "Edwards should be the unquestioned #1 back" despite arguing he played poorly for most of 2023, and now he has another low carry game without much opportunity or production and you're back to saying he isn't playing well.
If there's any bettor's out there, betting the exact opposite of whatever Thunder is saying regarding Edwards seems to be a good strategy.
--------------------------------------------
@Thunder
DeleteI appreciate that you want to talk about results and stats and see them as conclusive. Everything else is speculation, but to ignore the relevance of context and assume RBs dictate their own fate is foolhardy. Blake Corum's 2020 season -- when he was AWESOME for a freshman, despite averaging 3 YPC, should have told you that. But you questioned the assessments as "hype" and argued when I said he had the most impressive freshman season we'd seen in a while. You were more impressed by Charbonnet even though Corum already seemed to have passed Charbonnet on the depth chart.
And I know you don't like me to bring him up anymore but Let me tell you with 100% confidence that Blake's 3YPC freshman year was more impressive than Ty Isaac's freshman year at USC when he ran for 6YPC. I'm pretty confident you won't agree with this because YPC says Isaac was twice as good but the HUGE difference in context (a 5th string RB getting garbage time snaps) vs a guy splitting meaningful snaps with 3 other NFL backs. Comparing 26 snaps vs 32 snaps told you exactly the wrong story -- that Isaac had the potential to be a future star while Corum's hype should be questioned because it wasn't backed by results.
That's the thing about your use of YPC. When it supports your narrative it's statistically proven. When it doesn't, it is dismissed. Sorry to bring up Ty Isaac again, but it seems like some lessons are not getting learned here.
I'll give an Edwards example to be more on topic. In back to back games as a backup in 2022, before Blake's injury. Edwards had a game with 7 carries for 15 yards and 5 carries for 29 yards. 5.8 YPC and 2.1 YPC. 7 days apart. Blake Corum had 25+ carries in both games and averaged 4.6 YPC and 5.0 YPC and the offense scored 27 points vs 31 points so the context of opponent was not so different but Edwards did better (5.8YPC) in the tougher opponent Iowa than with the easier opponent Indiana (2.1 YPC). What does it mean? Absolutely nothing! He wasn't playing well one week and bad the week before -- that's just how the YPC cookie crumbles some time when you're getting only a handful of carries. The same dude would go on to look like a superstar later in the year. YPC wasn't useful. Any conclusion based on YPC in those 2 games was wrong.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Edwards is a very good RB and cherry-picking YPC stats isn't going to change what Michigan coaches and NFL scouts see -- a very good RB.
Is the best RB on the 2024 team that may need a lot of physicality and tackle-breaking to succeed -- I guess we'll find out, because this Michigan team is also gonna need some playmaking from the RB given where the QB and WRs are.
@Jelly
DeleteYou have no quotes just fantasies.
You don't understand positional value. You don't understand QB development. You don't understand seeking out challenges where you risk something. You don't understand context of playing like garbage when you're injured and on a bad team. You don't understand what differentiates Jim Harbaugh from other coaches. You don't understand what the NFL is looking for. You don't understand so very much about football and life and that's why your takes as garbage.
Hold them ALLLLLLLLLLLLL up high.
Let me just pull up a quote here with a link (this exact thread LOL) from JeLLLLLy.
Deleteje93August 31, 2024 at 1:29 PM
" Agree with Lank: get him into a rhythm and enjoy the show."
Some people just want to argue LOL
Here's a list of yards per carry by game (highest to lowest) over the past 16 games:
Delete17.3
7.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
1.5
That's 5 games above the "Mendoza line" of 4.0 yards/carry and 11 games below it.
He's #31 in the conference in yards per carry after one game. He was #23 in yards per carry last year in the conference.
He was the #403 RB in the country in PFF grades last year.
These are not small sample sizes. These are stats, not opinions and bias (unless you think PFF is biased against Donovan Edwards or something).
You keep saying Edwards has been good, but stats and grades don't back you up. Not in the last 16 games. Now there are lots of people - including Devin Gardner and the 247 guys (Zach Shaw, Steve Lorenz) - saying Kalel Mullings should be RB1.
You continue to misrepresent what I said about Blake Corum. In the midst of my ranking him the #17 most important player and giving him a TTB Rating in the 80s, I said "this is the most hype I've ever seen for someone who averaged 2.9 yards/carry" or something like that. You've taken that and tried to run with it to make it seem like I thought Corum sucked based on his freshman season. It's just not accurate.
You're not built for this.
*Lank, "RBs don't matter" is a quote Lank. Denying = lying
DeleteI know more about football than you, and it shows with ea exchange. I understand what the NFL wants and is willing to gamble on; it was YOU who doubted garbage Joe's draft & roster spot. I understand Harbaugh, and Harball; your RB takes have been against all that is Harbaugh philosophy
I don't get the last quote ... how is that wrong or changed? Point to where I said Edwards needs less rythm, or doubt his ability to explode through a big hole ... I'll wait
*HINT: you won't find it ... you're reeeaching after I beat you on the "RBs don't matter" exchange
#onequote
#outsmarted
Only denial is of your fantasy. "RBs don't matter" doesn't equal "All RBs are the same". Stated repeatedly but you believe your own lies. Like I said -- you don't understand positional value. You're out of your element Jelly. Not built for this. I know more about football than you.
DeleteYou want to talk about Milton again? You said he needed to go to D3 to start, and you were wrong, and now he's in the NFL. I didn't think he was going to the NFL either but I said have some patience.....way back in 2019. You were crying about INTs and it was never a problem at Tenn.
Against Harbaugh? Lie. Find one quote! You don't have it. I questioned some off field things (like GASP approach to injuries) but I have been a staunch Harbaugh supporter, up through and including 2020. You have no clue what Harbaugh is about. You think it's 1993 football. It ain't.
Hold it up garbage man.
@Thunder
Delete"You keep saying Edwards has been good, but stats and grades don't back you up. Not in the last 16 games"
The stats I gave you tell you he is good. The 9 game stretch where his production was poor is noted and acknowledged, repeatedly. But you NEED it to be 16. Your narrative doesn't hold up if it's the last 7 or the last 20. It has to be the cherry picked, exclude the 4 games Don started, include the 9 to start the 2023 season as a backup with Blake's return.
The 6 game stretch to close 2023 proves you wrong. You don't want to admit that.
Anyway you said the last two years. That's been excellent. So you moved the goalposts to 16.
If you like Cherry Picking that much you should head up to Traverse City Michigan sometime.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
RE: Corum.
You said Charbonnet impressed you more as a freshman. Check the comments.
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2021/08/2021-season-countdown-17-blake-corum.html
Charbonnet --- the sophomore that Corum beat out a few games into his freshman year -- impressed you more than Corum - the guy who impressed me more. Because I watched the game and understand the context and trusted the coaches. YPC failed you.
You want credit for ranking Corum 17? How does that compare to typical RB2s. I think it's pretty low. Especially for someone who was more or less unchallenged for that spot on the depth chart. You ranked Edwards
higher in 2022 and 2023, for example.
I'll just point to my consistency here with this comment regarding Haskins/Corum as a Thunder/Lightning not unlike the current Mullings/Edwards situation.
"LANKAugust 23, 2021 at 8:51 AM
Sometimes you want a Deveon Smith back there to make his own yards and sometimes you want a Giles Jackson to make the most of the opportunities the OL/offense give you. I don't think Haskins and Corum are THAT different but I'm expecting the offense to lean to the former, though I do have vague hopes (maybe 5% chance) that the OL comes together under Moore and mashes people.
Doesn't really matter who is used more since both will get plenty of opportunities and both are probably pretty good. Hard to be very valuable as a RB so I don't see Haskins as being worthy of 1. You can put Derrick Henry on this team and he wouldn't be 1 either."
Since I know Jelly is reading -- that's a QUOTE with a LINK. RBs don't matter even if RBs are different.
Jelly "Agree with Lank" is a quote. Denying = lying
DeleteNot even you believe you.
I don't understand the point about Charbonnet. Are you trying to prove a point against me by saying that Charbonnet impressed me more as a freshman? I mean, not that NFL draft placement means everything, but Charbonnet was the #52 overall pick and Corum was #83. "Haha, you thought a 2nd round pick was better than a 3rd round pick!" is a weird flex.
DeleteThe bottom line is that I never really said anything negative about Corum except "this is a lot of hype for someone who averaged 2.96 yards/carry." That's it. That's the entire list of grievances you have when it comes to me badmouthing Corum or whatever. At this point you're just talking to hear yourself talk.
You want to ignore when I said "I really like him as a prospect" and my TTB Rating of 83 and when I said "It will be important for all the backs to stay healthy, especially Haskins and Corum. Corum also has value as a receiver and seems to have more big-play ability than Haskins."
If one were to listen to you, they would think I was talking crap about Corum for years... You latch onto one innocuous comment and won't let it go for years. Literally...years! It makes it very difficult to have a rational conversation.
@Lank, I agreed that Edwards needed rythm. He's no Harball back (like Mullings) who's going to create on his own ... that's been the discussion for three years now
DeleteYou don't know football. It shows when you bounce back & forth, looking for debate. No consistency. No principles. No knowledge
Answer the question: do RB matter (Yes or No). Should be easy, but I expect a dodge (again)
You think you know Coach Harbaugh (or Moore), while they obviously understand it matters, and show it by pulling Edwards when tough "Harball" yards are needed
Another L ... desperate for confrontation, and resorting to lies to keep it up. It's fun, so I'll take the win
No one said you talked crap about Corum. Start a rational conversation there.
DeleteA TTB ranking of 83 and an RB2 ranking of 17 is unexceptional for TTB RB rankings, and Corum was an exceptional player. You might have seen that after his freshman year if you weren't putting so much weight on YPC.
--------------------------------------------------
I explained why Corum impressed me and deserved the hype in the comments. You argued with me there. I called him the most impressive freshman back I'd seen in a while. You scoffed saying we saw something more impressive just the year before.
Charbonnet got his job taken by Blake Corum when Blake was a freshman and then he transferred. You didn't mention what Corum achieved to ascend the depth chart in the messy 2020 season. This impressed me. You ignored that in the post -- but not Blake's YPC. Which didn't matter one lick.
------------------------------------------------------
You said the hype was "hoping for players to come out of nowhere and be stars". But Corum wasn't coming out of nowhere. He started one game, he led RB carries in another, and as the year went on he earned snaps on par with 3 older NFL RBs, as a freshman.
You likely thought he was "nowhere" because he wasn't putting up a big counting stats or YPC but I watched him played and saw what the coaches were doing with him. I trusted the coaches.. You saw hype and "coming from nowhere". I knew 1 carry would change the YPC narrative at anytime.
------------------------------------------------
It's not about "talking crap" about Corum. It's about your analysis and what it means going forward -- reading too much into YPC, a pattern that continues to this day.
You had just watched him as a freshman and didn't see anything special or unusual. You were skeptical of the hype. I don't know why exactly, or what all went into that, but you specifically mentioned the YPC and determined that "He also showed some impatience at times".
-------------------------------------------------
With Edwards you're either predicting stardom with a thousand yard season after his YPC looks good or saying he isn't getting the job done, lacks vision, patience, balance or whatever else after his YPC doesn't. I think that's reading too much into YPC on insufficient sample sizes, again. Yes, even 9 games of backup duty doesn't tell the story sometimes.
Smith vs Shaw
Fitzgerald vs time
Isaac vs Smith
Corum vs hype
Edwards vs his role on the team
Mullings vs Edwards
I know you don't want me to rehash some of these old arguments but the YPC-based judgements haven't worked out very well, historically. I think that's relevant to today.
I disagree with a lot of what you wrote...and yet the running back arguments are worn out by now. The horse is dead.
DeleteWell you asked in the Fresno State post "Is there a running back controversy?" and you're here talking about YPC rankings based on a single game so I'm not so sure the topic is dead.
Delete@JeLLY
DeleteRBs don't matter. Michigan can win with Mullings and they can with Edwards and frankly they can probably win with Hall and Marshall. Either/both of the primary backs can be successful, even if they have different skillsets they bring to the table. RBs can be replaced and team performance isn't impacted that much, as we saw at the close of 2022.
RBs aren't identical. This is borne out by differences in playcalls and situations. Mullings is probably more likely to be successful if running up the gut on 4thand goal from the 1 and Edwards is more likely to be successful on 3rd and long from the 50 but the differences are incremental and depend more on OL, QB, and coordinator than RB. And as much as we may feel some kind of way about one situation over another at the individual play level, over the course of season teams can adapt playcalls pretty readily to suit the strength of their personnel. Pass more if it's Edwards to make sure his exceptional receiving skills are utilized -- for example. Run inside more to get Mullings or Deveon Smith breaking tackles and mitigate for lack of their elite speed.
Everything matters. All Lives Matters. <-------- missing the point.
a Yes or No would have sufficed, but do you Lank ...
DeleteYour "doesn't matter" reasoning can apply to any position. We lost rod moore, and still won. We've lost & rotated OL, and still won. Sh:t, we lost a top 1o QB, started a walk-on and still won ... against a team with a legit playoff shot
Back to your other contradiction, if some guys are better at grinding, and others at breaking the big one ... then RB does matter, no?
#onequote:
"OTOH if you're running into stacked boxes all day because your QBs aren't scaring anyone, those opportunities are going to be infrequent and then you might have to lean to Mullings to grind"
*that was in the same post you conceded to Edwards having "dud" gameS, after arguing against that last year
#outsmarted
Who did we beat when we lost Rod Moore? Fresno State. LOL. That doesn't prove any point.
DeleteWe lost Blake Corum....the best RB at Michigan in a couple decades at least, plugged in a guy who you criticized heavily as guy who wasn't a "harball" every down back, Thunder criticized heavily, and fans (seemingly now) want to send to the bench...and we upset Ohio State in Columbus, mostly by running the ball.
Perhaps a worst case scenario at RB (going from an all time great to a guy who struggles a lot) and it wasn't just OK -- it was excellent.
These things aren't the same! They aren't equivalent.
2020 we had 4 NFL RBs -- didn't matter one lick because we were losing OL left and right.
I've asked repeatedly for an example of a starting RB being hurt and it impacting the team. I'll ask again here. I don't expect you'll have an answer.
The ones I've heard attempted were in 2022 -- Illinois (but Corum played the first half and the offense was worse with him than without him in the second half) and TCU (where offense continued to thrive despite a fill-in fumble from Mullings playing fullback). Neither fits.
What does fit -- Keegan and Schoonmacher were out against Illinois and the offense struggled from the outset. Missing our OG hurt. Missing our starting in-line TE hurt. Schoonmacher was replaced by Loveland! Keegan was replaced by El Hadi! The offense fell flat real quick.
"we lost a top 1o QB, started a walk-on and still won ... against a team with a legit playoff shot" <--- what game does this refer to?
Delete" if some guys are better at grinding, and others at breaking the big one ... then RB does matter, no?"
DeleteNo.
Covered above. Covered before.
Different skillsets and strengths don't mean the RB position matters.
No contradiction. You just don't get it. No matter how many times you are told. Because you're not smart enough JeLLLy.
"*that was in the same post you conceded to Edwards having "dud" gameS, after arguing against that last year"
DeleteOnly you believe your lies. Nobody argued with the production or lackthereof. The issue I argued about was if that was something Edwards was doing wrong (i.e., playing poorly) or if it was contextual.
Performance and production aren't the same thing. Positional value and individual skill differences aren't the same thing. You aren't built for this.
Edwards is. Keep giving him the ball - he's not playing poorly - keep going <----- what I said, what Harden said, what the coaches said. We were right! Last 6 games, 6 YPC, and a national title staring....Donovan Edwards. LOL
The results weren't there for much of the season, but no one needed Edwards to play differently, and he thrived again, as he did in late 2022. Some of us saw it. Some of us didn't.
I suspect the lesson will be repeated AGAIN, for the fourth year in a row, in 2024. Edwards will be doubted early in the year when sample sizes are small and prove the doubters wrong by season's end. Fool you once. Fool you twice. Fool you three times. Fool you 4?
It seems JeLLLy, to your credit, you're sorta resisting being fooled a fourth time. That's the right instinct. Maybe there's hope for you yet.
.....LOL. No
4 posts. Make it 5 jeLLLLLy. Rentfree, now from my "burner" LOL
Delete-Lank
Rod Moore was out the first part of last year ... you know this, but don't like that the answer destroys your narrative
DeleteBut it wasn't every down. I've shown you the data on carries. Boom or bust
That question has been answered: 2o22 Blake Corum. Edwards was getting hammered, so we had to pass our way out of it against ohio ... then BOOM, two wiiiide open lanes. You know this, but don't like that the answer destroys your narrative
We lost JJ. We beat Fresno w/a walk-on. Fresno is one of a few G5 teams w/ playoff potential. You know this, but don't like that the answer destroys your narrative
The HC disagrees with you. The OC disagrees with you. The RB coach disagrees with you. Mullings physical style getting him yards Edwards wasn't getting, earning him majority carries. You know this, but don't like that the answer destroys your narrative ... unless you're questioning the coaches on Playing Time?
YOU wrote dudS. Plural. Multiple games. Duds = playing poorly ... last year you argued against any assertion that he was struggling, not seeing lanes, speeding up his decisions, etc ... you know this, but don't like that the answer destroys your narrative
#oneQuote:
"Mullings had the better day and brings a DIFFERENT ELEMENT. He looks like a 1990s RB. But he's not just a thumper - he's agile, he's got great feet, he's versatile. He's a good back! If you want to say Mullings is a BETTER short yardage back, I CAN BUY THAT too"
#n0tbUilTf0rtHis
Almost losing to mediocre Illinois with our TE and OG out
Deletevs..
beating East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green.
Well I guess no position matters in that case. Our scout team could have won those games. Not the same thing, or even close.
And uh...losing JJ to the NFL is not comparable to losing Corum before OSU either. Many people, like Thunder, said we had no chance there without Corum. NOBODY said we have no chance, with an entire offseason to adjust to a new QB to not beat Fresno State. FSU isn't a playoff contender either. These weak-ass arguments just prove how little you have. #notbuiltforthis.
2022 Blake Corum......proves you WRONG. We beat OSU, as underdogs, on the road, on the back of the run game, led by, the guy you don't think very highly of as a running back, stepping in for Blake.
and then our offense STILL thrived in the post season, without Blake.
RBs don't matter. 2022 proves it.
---------------------------------------
You have not proven your point jelly. On Edwards or anything else. Certainly not with data or statistics. You're DEFINITELY not built for that. LOL
You have no proof that Edwards is any less likely to run for 4-7 yards or whatever than anybody else.
Edwards is like every other back -- his YPC is determined by frequency and length of his longest runs, which are outliers.
That goes for everybody.
---------------------------------------------
Which narrative is Mullings physical style proving me wrong on exactly? I've been arguing the importance of this with Thunder throughout Deveon Smith's career, and before. I've been arguing that Edwards can get the job done in this regard.
----------------------------------
You still don't understand production vs performance. You never will. Things have to be very black and white or your brain starts to fuzz out. #notbuiltforthis.
Edwards produced duds he didn't play poorly. Limited snaps and modest production early got in his head. But the coaches stuck with him and said "don't change". Same thing I said. We got the payoff the last 6 games.
I stand ALL my narratives you argue with, because they are true. Including my quote with your sElECtIvE cApS. What you think that proves or doesn't...well, your fantasies are for you I guess.
Hold them ALL up high.
You're moving the target ... again. No good faith debate
Delete#onequote:
"You have no proof that Edwards is any less likely to run for 4-7 yards or whatever than anybody else ... Edwards is like every other back -- his YPC is determined by frequency and length of his longest runs, which are outliers"
You're conflating YPC (your exchange with Thunder) with Boom-Bust & Harball (ours) ... I gave you the data every carry data on Edwards. You just don't like that it destroyed your narrative
Take the L and call it a day
#outsmarted
You've never produced any data that shows Edwards is more or less "boom bust" than anybody else nor have you even defined what would entail "boom bust" or wouldn't. He's a "haurbaughll" back. Here's proof.
Deletehttps://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/donovan-edwards-1.html
Every game of his career! PROOF! That the word I made up and won't define stands up. LOL
HOLD IT UP HIGH
2easy
To be fair...it's tough to be boom/bust when so many plays are just busts. He's tied for #251 in the country in breakaway yard percentage this year (on runs of 15+ yards), because he hasn't had any.
DeleteIf you read this thread, you saw where you conceded Edwards having dud games (plural)
DeleteI don't need to repost that quote; it's here
List Edwards carries at The Shoe like I did. That's the data YOU asked for ...
You ask for quotes & data, get it, then move the target. No good faith debate for a liar
Outsmarted. Just take your L
You lost so bad you are resorting to making up fake quotes.
DeleteI gave you the evidence and told you what it told you. You cherry-pick and STILL get blown up because it... doesn't prove your point.
No quotes. No links. No facts. No data. Just fantasies.
You aren't built for this.
If I was Jelly I'd say Thunder admits that Edwards is not boom bust.
Deleteif I was Jelly I'd take "that roof is blue like this car" and say "Lank thinks you can drive a roof. I won!"
if I was Jelly I'd be telling my "friends" at the suburban Sacramento rec center about the marvel movies I just watched and beating this guy I'm obsessed with talking to on the internet using fake quotes.
Try as you may, you lost
DeleteMoving the target to Marvel movies is a desparate attempt to ignore your L ... spinning to a preferred data set and minimum carries while ignoring EVERY carry is desperate & misleading. Assuming defenses "gladly hand you yards" (a quote) is a straight up LIE
Funny, but still a failure
Every accusation is a confession.
DeleteYou have no evidence of boom/bust. You can't define boom/bust. You failed.
Hold it up high!
Maybe I should talk about the DCU ... or the Back to the Future franchise ... nah
DeleteLOL. We all know what you're here to talk about. Obsessed!
DeleteHere is the best data point I have access to, that can begin to assess the boom/bust accusation made about Edwards (popularized after the 2022 season). The best stat I can find is: Success Rate
ReplyDeleteSuccess rate covers something that YPC can't touch -- accounting for the difference in context when you're running on 3rd and 10 vs. 3rd and 1. The defense will gladly hand you 3 or 4 years in one case and fight tooth and nail to make sure that doesn't happen in the other.
In short, it measures how often you DO YOUR JOB, in consideration of context.
YPC will reflect if you go BOOM a lot. Success Rate will reflect if you go BUST a lot.
-------------------------------------
If you want to understand a historical bar during the Harbaugh era, here are success rates from all RBs with over 50 carries in a season. Plus, a bonus inclusion of goal line TD vulture FBs shown with an *
2015: Smith: 34%, Johnson 44%
2016: Smith 38%, Evans 39%, Isaac 45%, Higdon 39%
2017: Higdon 38%, Evans 33%, Isaac 44% *Hill 65%
2018: Higdon 40%, Evans 35%, Wilson 52% *Mason 58%
2019: Charbonnet 43%, Haskins 45%
2020: Haskins 52%
2021: Haskins 47%, Corum 42%
That gets us through to 2022 and you can see here that:
40-45% is a good solid number for a typical starting RB
>45% means producing reliability at an exceptional rate.
<40% means it's a bit of a slog because you are failing (going BUST) relatively often.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
So now let's jump to the Edwards Era.
2021 saw Haskins produce a lower YPC (4.9 vs 6.6) than Corum, but a higher success rate (47% vs 42%). Corum was the guy who went BOOM, but he was also more likely to go BUST. But, only relative to Haksins. 42% is still a solid number to hit, objectively. And BTW, Edwards did not get to 50 carries this year but he did edge Corum out in success rate (43% vs 42%).
That takes us to the most critical year for this argument: 2022.
2022 Success Rate was 54% for Corum and 45% for Edwards, but YPC was Edwards with 7.0 and Corum with 5.9. So COMPARED TO CORUM, Don had a lower success rate which means he was less reliable (more likely to BUST) and COMPARED to Corum he had a higher YPC rate (more likely to BOOM). But, like Corum in 2021 - he was still objectively putting up a strong success rate, so any argument that there was a lot of BUST going on was objectively inaccurate. It was all RELATIVE to the competion.
Same Dynamic in 2021 and in 2022. The starting RB was 5 to 10% more likely to be successful, but also less likely to break off a big run so had a lower YPC (by 1 or 2 yards). Same Dynamic in 2021 and 2022 - RB2 was objectively gettting the job done (40-45%) like a starting caliber back should.
Bottomline: Success rate says Edwards was getting the job done in the 2022 season, even when he wasn't breaking off long gainers that inflated his YPC. Same thing it said about Corum in 2021. Plenty of Boom. No evidence of Bust.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Now we move on to 2023:
Corum had a better YPC AND a better success rate than Edwards.
44% success rate vs 31% success rate
4.8 YPC vs 4.2 YPC
Corum was a more productive back and a more reliable back in 2023. Everyone saw the results. (though we disagreed on the reasons). Edwards brought a lot of bust and not much boom (4.2 YPC).
Edwards NEVER had a boom bust season. Edwards seasons:
2021: Boom / No Bust
2022: Boom / No Bust
2023: No Boom / Bust
2024 so far: No Boom / No Bust
In 2024 no one has close to 50 carries yet so no conclusions should be drawn but the success rates look like this so far:
Mullings 43%, Edwards 42%, Orji 43%
and the only run over 20 yards (BOOM) at this point is one 21 yarder by Mullings that has put his YPC at 5.6 for the season.
No sign of a BOOM/BUST in 2024. Yet AGAIN
Wait a minute...
Delete...you did all this research and found a boom/bust stat, and you reached the conclusion that Donovan Edwards - who had the lowest success rate (31%) of the Harbaugh era - is NOT a boom/bust player?
Also, you say yourself that a number below 40% is a slog, which is where De'Veon Smith apparently lived...but you constantly criticize me for my take on Ty Isaac, who was at 44% and 45% in the two years you mentioned.
WHAT IS GOING ON?!?!! This is a self-own. It indicates Edwards is indeed boom/bust, and it says De'Veon Smith didn't do his job as well as Ty Isaac did.
Lmao, that's Lyinlank for ya!
Delete@Thunder
DeleteWe can rehash the Smith/Isaac debate if you want. The stats are insightful, IMO. You said you didn't want to talk about it. Let me know when you decide which it is.
IRT to Edwards -- you hit on the point above. Where is the boom? Edwards success rate and his YPC were both low last year. You harped on the YPC all season long. Nevermind that the PFF scores and Mgoblog evals stopped being an issue by midesason. According to you -- he was just bad. Flat out.
So where is the boom? And how can you be boom/bust if there is no boom?
What year was Edwards boom/bust? No year. No evidence. Debunked!
Clearly the boom was in the national championship game and then like one run against PSU. The bust was...everything else.
DeleteI'm surprised I have to explain how boom/bust he was when basically the storyline was that he didn't do anything all year long in 2023 (bust)...and then he had two 40+ yard touchdowns against Washington (boom). This is the definition of boom/bust.
@Thunder
DeleteRemember this debate originates in 2022. So does your definition of boom/bust fit that narrative?
" he didn't do anything all year long in 2023 (bust)...and then he had two 40+ yard touchdowns against Washington (boom). This is the definition of boom/bust."
No - not for 2022 and not for other players.
If one outlier game is the "definition of boom/bust" then Blake Corum would also meet the definition. He's had individual games where he struggled (BUST) in 2023. 16 carries for 52 yards against Iowa with 25% success rate. 15 carries for 50 yards against MSU, with 31% success rate in 2021.
Blake Corum is boom/bust because he had one or more outlier games from his overall season.
YOUR DEFINITION. Not mine.
I don't think either are boom/bust.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edwards had no bad games in 2022. (YOUR DEFINITION) Unless you want to start parsing 7 carries against Indiana. (LOL you probably do).
There was no bust in 2022. This is how he was portrayed then, but season-long success rate disproves it. It was boom - high YPC. No bust - high success rate.
I'm guessing you just have a entirely different definition of boom/bust when it comes to 2022 than the one above? A definition that ignores that Edwards not only produced a high YPC thanks to long gainers, but Edwards also produced high success rate games against OSU (41%), Purdue (44%), and TCU (43%).
But please - go ahead and explain how Edwards was a boom/bust back in 2022 and try not to trip over the new definition and the conflicts you'll face trying to make it apply for both 2022 and 2023 (not to mention 2024 LOL).
Yikes.
DeleteSomebody who is boom/bust is not someone who is awesome most of the time and then occasionally has a bad game. Because literally every great player - even very consistent ones - has a bad game sometimes. Tom Brady had bad games. He wasn't a boom/bust player.
"basically the storyline was that he didn't do anything all year long in 2023 (bust)...and then he had two 40+ yard touchdowns against Washington (boom)."
DeleteThird and final point: Not true!
The story line of 2023 was Donovan Edwards was a backup RB who looked like a backup RB. No one would have any issue with that except that some people assumed he would produce like a starting RB despite being a backup RB. (Note: this is you Thunder, you predicted he'd have over 1000 yards, and I argued with you then.)
The entire reaction to Edwards (post-2022 breakout) continues to be that he isn't hitting expectations. Not that he is bad or playing bad or whatever else - that's all reactionary responses to unmet expectations. It's that he isn't the starting RB we saw at the close of 2022 getting 20+ carries a game and thriving.
----------------------------------------------------
Narratives aside, Edwards WAS playing well by midseason. He was NOT a bust, WELL before the Washington game, even IF I granted you that he was a bust in the first half of the year.
We've discussed 2023 ad nauseum but Edwards was grading out well by mid season last year and the results were there BEFORE the Washington game. Examples:
PSU 10 carries for 52 yards.
Maryland 11 carries for 39 yards (better YPC than Corum).
Iowa 4 carries for 28 yards (better YPC than Corum).
Excellent days for a backup RB thaat in other contexts might have gotten a LSMOTG from Thunder.
UFR scores were even more positive. Mgoblog (who is a big Mullings over Edwards guy and keeps advocating for Edwards to play WR) even defended Edwards:
"He came in for a good score after a 3.8 YPC day against Nebraska because he "maximized what was there" and got half his carries after Michigan started pulling offensive linemen; I defended him extensively after a 2.2 YPC outing against Indiana... It proceeded from there, concluding that he ""didn't leave any yards on the field" but rather "ate virtually all of Michigan's blocking mistakes."" After low YPC dud vs Purdue, Mgoblog still scored Edwards and Corum as essentially equivalent (+2, +1) with similar success rates (40%, and 38%).
Edwards was playing like a good backup by midseason. Anyone not hyperfocused on YPC could see that. But his season YPC wouldn't crest 4 YPC until the end of the year because of the weight of the first few games and the lack of boom.
We had the expectations vs production argument before mid year. We had the production vs performance argument before mid year. Edwards was STRUGGLING according to you. Playing bad. I said it wasn't a problem, results aren't there, sample size is small, just wait.
You did NOT say we're in the BUST phase of the boom/bust season, just wait everyone Edwards is going to go boom soon. you did not. You did not predict he would outperform Corum (in terms of YPC and/or success rate) in several games the rest of the way. He did. And he averaged 5.9 YPC in the last 6 games of the season and still over 4 YPC even if you exclude the Washington game.
None of it predicted by you. You said he was STRUGGLING and that these struggles were a problem with Edwards. No sign of a bounceback at all. I said it was variance and it would sort itself out. Although it took longer than I expected, I admit, for Edwards to break several big runs in one game, the inevitable thing did indeed happen. Not a surprise, since he was already playing well.
Don't take my word for it -- check the snap counts that reflect the coaches opinions during the stretch run in 2023 against PSU, MD, OSU, Iowa to close the year. BEFORE his post-season highlight run breakout.
Every one of those was a big time game and Edwards was out there despite being accused of "struggling" and "not doing anything at all", again and again, helping the team win and grading out as a good backup RB. With exactly one run over 20 yards (a 22 yarder against PSU). No boom. No bust. Just a good solid backup RB capable of much much more.
@Thunder 406
DeleteYes - every player has an outlier game. That doesn't describe their season. (See Edwards, Washington, 2023).
You will pick and choose your logic and the appropriate sample size to suit your argument as needed.
I see you dodged the question about 2022.
@ Lank 4:16 p.m.
DeleteAgain...yikes. And again...there's just way too much randomness here to discuss.
I disagree with a lot of what you wrote. At the same time, I don't have hours to parry every point. And I know you won't concede anything. So it just is what it is.
You have your opinion(s). I have mine.
The results speak for themselves. Edwards as a ball carrier:
Delete5.5 YPC for his career
40% Success Rate for his career
YPC is sensitive to big plays (of which he has had many).
Success rate isn't.
Edwards has a good success rate.
@ Lank 7:46 p.m.
DeleteOkay, fine. Lank, you win. I give up. Success Rate is a really valuable stat. You've convinced me.
I will concede that Donovan Edwards and De'Veon Smith are worse running backs than Ty Isaac.
Please don't ever accuse me of being too hard-headed to change my mind.
@Thunder 12o1, the storyline is at MGoBlog too ... they have laughed about it on podcasts, and write in season review, and film breakdown
DeleteDud games ... a quote
Lmao, LyinLank with the self owns has been a late summer / early Fall enjoyment. Now he's conceding on Ty Issac!
@Thunder
DeleteYou got a LOL out of me