Now that the 2024 Season Countdown is in the rear view mirror, here's the full list so you can see it all in one place.
- Will Johnson
- Colston Loveland
- Mason Graham
- Kenneth Grant
- Donovan Edwards
- Josaiah Stewart
- Jaishawn Barham
- Alex Orji
- Ernest Hausmann
- Dominic Zvada
- Myles Hinton
- Tommy Doman
- Derrick Moore
- Giovanni El-Hadi
- Josh Priebe
- Semaj Morgan
- Max Bredeson
- Tyler Morris
- Makari Paige
- Jyaire Hill
- Kalel Mullings
- Zeke Berry
- Quinten Johnson
- Greg Crippen
- William Wagner
- Fredrick Moore
- a) T.J. Guy, b) Rayshaun Benny
- Raheem Anderson II
- Davis Warren
- Marlin Klein
- Aamir Hall
- Jeffrey Persi
- Jimmy Rolder
- Evan Link
- Andrew Gentry
- Wesley Walker
- Ja'den McBurrows
- Amorion Walker
- Trey Pierce
- Cameron Brandt
- Jaydon Hood
- Jaden Mangham
- Enow Etta
- a) Hudson Hollenbeck, b) Adam Samaha
- Deakon Tonielli
- C.J. Charleston
- a) Zack Marshall, b) Brady Prieskorn
- Keshaun Harris
- Brandyn Hillman
- Dominick Giudice
- Greg Tarr
- a) Cole Cabana, b) Benjamin Hall
- Jack Tuttle
- Ricky Johnson
- Kendrick Bell
- Tristan Bounds
- Micah Pollard
- Kechaun Bennett
- Christian Boivin
- Peyton O'Leary
- Joe Taylor
- Deyvid Palepale
- Evan Boutorwick
- Aymeric Koumba
- Tavierre Dunlap
- Connor Jones
- Tyler McLaurin
- Breeon Ishmail
- Kody Jones
- Myles Pollard
- Dominic Nichols
- Jalen Hoffman
- Jordan Marshall #23
- Nathan Efobi
- Jason Hewlett
- Joseph Klunder
- Jayden Denegal
- Jo'Ziah Edmond
- Andrew Sprague
- Henry Donohue
- Brooks Bahr
- Channing Goodwin
- Ike Iwunnah
- Joel Metzger
- Cole Sullivan
- Dale Chesson
- Jacob Oden
- Alessandro Lorenzetti
- Owen Wafle
- I'Marion Stewart
- Blake Frazier
- Ben Roebuck
- Lugard Edokpayi
- Micah Ka'apana
- Chibi Anwunah
- Joshua Nichols
- Jadyn Davis
- Micah Davis
- Max Reyes
- Nico Andrighetto
- Daniel Taraboi
- Jake Guarnera
- S Bryce Wilcox
- TE Noah Howes
- DT Ted Hammond
- TE Brandon Mann
- CB Jeremiah Lowe
- DT Peter Simmons
- DE Devon Baxter
- TE Hogan Hansen
- LB Alexander Lidback
- LB Mason Curtis
- K Stone Anderson
- OG Luke Hamilton
- EMPTY DUE TO HAYDEN MOORE TRANSFER
- EMPTY DUE TO SEMAJ BRIDGEMAN TRANSFER
- EMPTY DUE TO AMIR HERRING TRANSFER
- EMPTY DUE TO JEREMIAH BEASLEY TRANSFER
- EMPTY DUE TO D.J. WALLER TRANSFER
- QB Anthony Arnou
- EMPTY DUE TO CRISTIAN DIXON TRANSFER
- LB Jack Mackinnon
- S Shomari Stone
- LS James Kavouklis
- EMPTY DUE TO DANNY HUGHES TRANSFER
- EMPTY DUE TO JOSH BEETHAM TRANSFER
- RB Bryson Kuzdzal
- DT Manuel Beigel
- LB Zach Ludwig
- LB Liam Groulx
- LB Grayson Dee
Thanks Thunder! Great job as always. The countdown is always a very enjoyable read in the summer when football content is light but appetite for it is still strong for some sickos (like me).
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see a post season review ... Where will Mullings be? Which QB will survive?
ReplyDeleteOverreaction after Game 1: Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji are rated too highly. Mullings, Warren and Tuttle (i won’t be surprised if he is the QB for Ohio State) are rated too lowly.
ReplyDeleteInteresting
DeleteEdwards: too soon. if we're gonna SMASH, he either has to do it, or be a 3rd Down change of pace Back - but still hit pay dirt
Orji: I'll assume his ranking was based on projection to start. Unless that happens, yeah too high
Warren: too soon. I didn't like the one-read, and think it hurts an already questionable WR room. Need to see more
Tuttle: probably too low, but that was said at the time. He needs to be ready in case Warren doesn't improve (or gets worse)
QB pecking order doesn't feel locked in yet to me. At least compared to positions like say LB. Obviously things have changed from preseason expectations but I think you could still make a case for putting all of the 3 top candidates in the top 30. QB is that important. ALL QBs MATTER! unless they don't LOL.
DeleteWarren, obviously would rank higher as the starter, but nobody knew that, even the players, until last week. Orji - ranked like a starter and isn't, but that ranking might still not be too far off, depending on his role as the season goes on, which is related to Warren's effectiveness and health. If Orji stays playing around a dozen snaps then yeah top 10 is too high, but can we really assume that? I think it's like 50/50 that a starter will make it through a full season without missing time, at best.
Thunder has Tuttle right (outside of the top 50) if he's really just QB3 and consistently too injured to play, but it's not clear if that's how things will go yet. If I was to rerank in the moment I'd have Warren around 8, Orji around 17, Tuttle around 30 something because I think he could still factor in. And....Davis in the high 40s even though he might not play in many games.
There's a lot of season to play, pecking order might still be subject to change, and the bottomline is that QB is incredibly important.
RB stands in contrast. Mullings is still ranked too high, even if he's a co-starter in a 1A/1B rotation. 21 is more appropriate for a clear RB1 (like Higdon in 2018). Edwards yes - he's too high, as a RB and splitting duties. Pass catching boosts him in value but not to the top 10.
If either Edwards or Mullings go down, the other one is there to pick up the extra snaps and we have plenty of other talents on the bench ready to step in for 10-15 situational snaps as needed. Both could be the bellcow back IMO, though Mullings is less proven he is playing well.
With two good options and a rotation, I'm not sure either should be in the top 20 given that. But Edwards has more talent and potential. We may or may not see it turn into production in this context but he'll be drafted into the NFL regardless because of the playmaking and receiving ability he has shown over the last 3 years and his speed and acceleration.
The depth and talent at RB (4 star recruits just sitting on the bench, unused) is strong. 2 RBs that can be starters, but we can rotate them - a luxury. This stands in stark contrast to the QB position where we have an unproven walk-on, a failed backup from Indiana, and an "athlete" who many projected to change positions. If this was the crew at RB there would be a lot more talk of "unacceptable" even though it worked out fine in 2019.
I for one am very glad that Mullings is on the team. He might even be ranked too low. Donovan Edwards spent most of last year gaining 2-3 yards per carry. He didn't start this year off great, either. A running back averaging 2-3 yards per carry is a good recipe for not running the ball...except Michigan also doesn't have a QB/WR combo to throw the ball around 45-50 times a game.
DeleteJust for comparison's sake, Fitzgerald Toussaint had 11 career games with a YPC below 3.0, and he played behind a couple really bad offensive lines.
DeleteDonovan Edwards has 14 career games with a sub-3.0 YPC average and we're only one game into his senior year. He's played with a very good OL his entire career (perhaps up until 2024).
I'm very glad Mulling is on the team. He has shown the ability to break tackles and complements Edwards well. Although Edwards has played so much more, both backs have very similar career YPC over the last two years which is not surprising. Most teams want to be able to rotate 2 backs and it's good to have a trusted option if either is injured. This offense has a lot of concerns but RB seems like a strength area yet again.
DeleteWe saw the benefits of rotation at Edge, Safety, and DT last year. While Edwards production has wavered in a rotational role compared to a primary bac
@Thunder
DeleteIt sounds like you think Edwards is a RB that may well continue to average 2-3 YPC without as strong of a supporting cast as past years. And that he may cede more playing time to Mullings? If true, where would you rank him on the countdown, now?
My other post got cut off. Meant to say:
DeleteWe saw the benefits of rotation at Edge, Safety, and DT last year. While Edwards production has wavered somewhat in a rotational role compared to a primary back, hopefully this can be sorted out because most teams prefer to rotate.
@Thunder
DeleteRE: Toussaint
He averaged less than 3 YPC in 4/5 games with less than 14 carries and only 1/7 games with more than 14 carries, during his senior year.
The previous season he had 2 games with single digit carries. In one he averaged 10.3 YPC and in the other he averaged 0.9 YPC.
Boom/bust or regression to the mean?
Maybe he needed to get in a rhythm.
Toussaint also had one of the lowest YPC on the 2011 team amongst the 4 top RBs (Toussaint, V. Smith, Shaw, and Rawls). When things went downhill on the OL in 2012 and 2013, everyone's YPC went down, but Toussaint was never very impressive on YPC basis in college after his freshman year (8 carries). YET he was one of only a few RBs who started at Michigan who went on to the NFL between the great careers of Hart and Corum.
That list:
Toussaint, Robinson, Smith, Evans, Charbonnet, Haskins
Speaking of Evans, he never got to be a primary back but if you look at his 2018 season (his final season the COVID shortened 2020) he averaged over 3.0 YPC in 4/4 games with double digit carries and under 3.0 YPC in the 4/6 games with single digit carries.
In 2017, Evans had 5 games with 3YPC or less. 4/5 came with single digit carries.
Perhaps number of carries has a substantial influence in probability of finishing below 3 YPC for RBs.
I think we have enough data points to show that Edwards cannot be a 3 down running back. If we lose him for the season, I don’t believe it will change by much. I would drop him to at least in the 20s if not 30s.
ReplyDeleteIf the coaches don't find a way to scheme The Don into big plays, this season will go down. That's why he isn't misranked; use him as both a RB and an offensive weapon, and good things will happen. Simply ram him into the line, and more duds will follow
DeleteWarren is so thin & frail, he's one fat man hit from injury ... hopefully Tuttle will be ready ... Orji too, but to absorb much of the contact the other two might take
Fair point. I think the coaches are saving the schemes for the big games. Let’s see what the coaches will unleash for the Texas game. But my point is Donovan Edwards is good for only 4-5 plays a game. He can’t be relied upon the whole game, the way we can with Corum and Mullings.
DeleteI think there's direct evidence that says he can. What about the games Edwards started in 2022?
DeleteEdwards has 5 games in his career with 15 carries or more -- and has produced 100+ yard rushing days in every one of them. OSU, PSU, TCU, Purdue, Iowa also, not cupcakes. Those are the only games he has been "relied upon the whole game" - and he has thrived.
Mullings has never done that. Saturday was his career high in playing time. I get it - Mullings had the better day and brings a different element. He looks like a 1990s RB. But he's not just a thumper - he's agile, he's got great feet, he's versatile. He's a good back! If you want to say Mullings is a better short yardage back, I can buy that too. (success has been mixed but the coaches keep using him so I gotta trust he's doing it in practice).
Regardless of Mullings, the criticisms dogging Edwards overall game are out of control at this point. He's a proven performer. The stretch to start last year was understandably disheartening, but...he already bounced back to finish the season (the last 6 games, half a regular season's worth) averaging 6 YPC.
Al Borges reviewed the Fresno game and thought Edwards played fine -- there just wasn't anything there on the plays. Someone asked if Edwards shouldn't be used on inside running plays. He scoffed and pointed out his history of success of taking inside running plays to the house when holes develop to the outside. His conclusion was the same as the conclusion reached by Jim Harbaugh -- give him the rock. He'll get it done.
@ Lank 11:15 a.m.
DeleteI think it's kind of funny that excuse after excuse needs to be made for Edwards:
- he's not getting enough carries
- "there just wasn't anything there on the plays"
- he was good two years ago for three games
Why does a back need 15 carries in a game before we can determine if he's good or not? Do we do this with any other position? Do we need to wait until Davis Warren has 30 pass attempts in a game to see if he's any good? Do we need to see Dominick Giudice get 70+ snaps to see if he's any good at center?
The numbers and the grades tell us Edwards is not playing well.
@Thunder
Delete"The numbers and the grades tell us Edwards is not playing well."
That's what you said last year and then he averaged 6YPC in the last 6 games (half a regular season's worth) and showed out at the national championship game. You put him #5 on your countdown after that. He average 5.5 YPC for his career and produced a boatload of yards. He's a proven player and a special talent.
Edwards was the #12 player against Fresno State according to your PFF ratings. Doesn't sound real terrible and he didn't look real terrible to many. You act like he's incapable and should be benched. I don't think so because the numbers tell us he is excellent.
I would not pass judgement on Giudice or Warren yet. But they are seniors who have hardly played through 3 years while Edwards has starred.
Maybe number of carries shouldn't matter, but Edwards said he wasn't in a rhythym last year and struggled mentally with going from a star player as a primary back to a backup role. So - it seems to be relevant to him. I hope he can either get over it or he gets more workload.
I just can't do anything but laugh at the massaging of Edwards's stats and the excuses made for him.
Delete@Thunder, massage = mislead = lie
Delete@Lank, lmao now you want to use Edwards own words, while ignoring them last year
Semper Lank!
@Thunder
DeleteI get that because that's exactly what I think you are doing in being critical of Edwards. I don't think it takes much massaging to point to a guy's YPC over his career. Anyway...
I don't think you've really answered why you ranked Edwards at #5 and predicted a 1100 rushing yard season. You've been consistently critical of Edwards for about 11 months now - struggling, lacking vision, not breaking tackles, all the things...
Only negative assessments (besides speed and receiving) yet... top 5 and 1000+ yards again?