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Friday, September 13, 2024

Preview: Michigan vs. Arkansas State

 

Jaylen Raynor (image via Land Grant Holy Land)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE RUSH DEFENSE
After two games, Michigan is in unfamiliar territory as the #101 rushing team in the country (114 yards/game) and the #87 team in yards per carry (4.0). The Wolverines are one of just eleven teams in the country with zero rushing touchdowns at this point. Michigan is also tied for #114 in rushing attempts per game (28.0), and that signifies the biggest issue. They have been unable to sustain drives, and Donovan Edwards (8) and Kalel Mullings (6) managed just 14 carries between them against Texas last week. That's not enough touches for two of the three best athletes on the offense. Pro Football Focus ranks Michigan as the #47 run blocking team in the country. LG Josh Priebe and LT Myles Hinton rank as the top two blockers on the line, but there have been some major struggles opening holes. Starting running back Donovan Edwards has managed just 68 yards on 19 carries (3.58 yards/carry) so far this year. Arkansas State is #115 in rushing defense (199 yards allowed/game) and they're #131 in yards allowed per carry (6.22). They've squeaked by Central Arkansas and Tulsa by a combined seven points, but they've given up 235 and 163 yards rushing, respectively, and 5 total rushing touchdowns. Senior hybrid safety Justin Parks (6'0", 197 lbs.) and fifth year senior LB Charles Willekes (6'1", 225) - a former Michigan State linebacker and the brother of former MSU DE Kenny Willekes - are tied for the team lead with 17 tackles, followed by fifth year senior LB Marvin Ham (6'1", 231), a Colorado transfer, with 14 stops. The starting defensive tackles are 288 and 294 pounds, and some of the key backups are in the 270s. If Michigan is going to get back to playing smashmouth football, it needs to start this week against an undersized and less talented defense.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.


PASS OFFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #113 nationally in pass offense (162.5 yards/game) and tied for #121 in yards per attempt (5.4). They're also #112 in passing efficiency. Any way you slice it, the production has been poor. QB Davis Warren is actually Michigan's highest graded offensive player, according to PFF; with a grade of 79.2, he's well ahead of even TE Colston Loveland (71.2). But Warren's passing efficiency hasn't been seen in a "starter" at Michigan since 2017 Brandon Peters, who was a third-stringer and only played after Wilton Speight (injury) and John O'Korn (poor production) ceded their spots. Warren has had some errant throws and has yet to push the ball down the field other than two attempts against Fresno State, one of which was intercepted. Loveland is the obvious #1 target (16 catches, 157 yards, 1 touchdown) with Semaj Morgan (7 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD) the second most productive guy so far. RT Evan Link got run over repeatedly last week and notched a 0.0 pass blocking grade from PFF, but rumors coming from insiders have the staff sticking with Link rather than turning to Jeffrey Persi or Andrew Gentry. Arkansas State is #70 in pass defense (198 yards allowed/game), #82 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8), and #70 in passing efficiency defense. Senior CB Justin Hodges (6'2", 184) and sophomore CB Dontay Joyner (6'0", 174) are the top two graded cover guys on the team other than Ham. The Red Wolves are tied for #97 in sacks (1.0 per game), with one coming from junior DE Jayden Jones (6'5", 262) and then half a sack each for Ham and redshirt freshman DT Ian Jeffries (6'4", 288). The best pass rushing grade comes from 5'11", 294 lb. DT Tim Hardiman, who had 7.0 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks last year but has yet to record a mark in either category this season. While one would think Michigan should have an advantage in this department, I'll start believing it when I see it.
Advantage: Arkansas State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #25 in rush defense (76 yards allowed/game) and #39 in yards allowed per rush (2.81), but they have mostly been solid against the run. Last week's numbers against Texas were heavily affected by WR Ryan Wingo's 55-yard end around, but the top three running backs averaged 2.4, 3.6, and 3.8 yards per carry. The Wolverines need to clean up their tackling - CB Jyaire Hill and LB Jaishawn Barham have both been disappointing in that area - and they need the offense to help keep star DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant off the field for longer stretches so they can get breaks. Safety Makari Paige leads the team with 11 tackles, followed by DE Josaiah Stewart (9) and then six players tied with 7 stops. Arkansas State is #85 in rushing offense (140.5 yards/game) and #103 in yards per carry (3.27). Sophomore QB Jaylen Raynor (6'0", 201) leads the team with 122 yards on 34 attempts and 2 touchdowns. Redshirt junior RB Ja'Quez Cross (5'9", 197) has just 55 yards on 17 attempts, while senior Zak Wallace (6'0", 225) has 31 carries for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. Somewhat surprisingly, the Red Wolves have a sizeable offensive line, led by junior RT Elijah Zollicoffer (6'5", 345) and redshirt junior LG Mehki Butler (6'3", 320). However, Zollicoffer and redshirt junior LT Noah Smith (6'7", 315) have really struggled this season. Zollicoffer gets off balance way too easily, and Smith can get overpowered. Michigan's starting edges should have a very good day on Saturday.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #98 in pass defense (240.5 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per attempt (6.7). They're also #89 in passing efficiency defense. Texas QB Quinn Ewers tore them apart pretty effectively (66.7% completions, 246 yards, 3 TDs), largely because the pass rush couldn't get home against a quality offensive line. CB Will Johnson wasn't tested - except when he chased down Wingo's 55-yard run to save a touchdown - but CB Jyaire Hill and the safeties were tested, and it didn't go well. Hill allowed 8 receptions on 11 targets and gave up 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Unlike last week (Michigan had 5 QB hurries but 0 sacks), the Wolverines should be able to put significant pressure on Raynor. Whether they can bring him down quickly is a different question since he's so quick, but the offensive line is shoddy at best with injuries and poor players at the tackle positions. Arkansas State is #57 in passing offense (286 yards/game), #71 in yards per attempt (7.2), and #91 in passing efficiency. Raynor is the only player who has attempted a pass this year (57% completions, 572 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) and his leading receiver is redshirt junior Corey Rucker (6'0", 216), a South Carolina transfer who has 13 catches for 239 yards and 2 TDs. Fifth year senior WR Courtney Jackson (5'11", 189) had a punt return touchdown last week and is tied for #2 in receiving with 8 catches for 89 yards. Senior WR Reagan Ealy (5'9", 178) has a matching line with 8 catches for 89 yards.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Arkansas State players from the State of Michigan include: LB Marvin Ham (Belleville), P Ryan Heicher (Walled Lake Northern), K Clune Van Andel (Forest Hills Eastern), LB Charles Willekes (NorthPointe Christian)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...

  • These two teams have never played
  • Despite spending a lot of his time in Michigan (at Ferris State and Central Michigan), Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has never faced Michigan as a head coach

PREDICTION

  • Michigan 34, Arkansas State 13

18 comments:

  1. OFFENSE

    Get back to basics. Get your run game going. OL needs to get reps in so that they are executing as a unit. Lean into your best skill position players (including Bredeson). Get Don going. Get Klein out there (our longshot hope of having an in-line TE option) too. Time to move on from Texas. Reestablish identity. If you can't do it here then we're in big trouble...

    Also, get Orji a series where he's allowed to throw the ball to set yourself up going forward.

    DEFENSE

    Kick them off of the field fast and let the offense get reps in. Hopefully the 2nd unit DL and LBs are getting an opportunity in this one but we need the offense to do its part.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thunder mentioned some of the PFF grades and has been ranking M players relative to how they sort out at times. Here is the list of the top 10 ranked offensive players from Texas game, and number of snaps they played:

      QB Davis Warren - 54 / 76.5
      TE/FB Max Bredeson - 13 / 73.0
      WR Peyton O’Leary - 15 / 72.9
      RB Donovan Edwards - 32 / 71.9
      WR Semaj Morgan - 31 / 68.1
      OL Giovanni El-Hadi - 57 / 66.0
      OL Josh Priebe - 57 / 65.6
      RB Kalel Mulings - 13 / 64.5
      RB Ben Hall - 14 / 62.8
      WR CJ Charleston - 19 / 62.3

      My opinions:
      I don't really care about parsing the various WRs getting limited snaps - more notable that Morris didn't make it.
      Lack of OL and TE on this list is a red flag and needs to change vs a cupcake opponent.
      Bredeson needs more snaps!
      Edwards needs more touches!


      Delete
    2. "If Michigan is going to get back to playing smashmouth football, it needs to start this week against an undersized and less talented defense."

      I agree buI wonder if any team has ever played smashmouth football without an In-Line TE who excels at blocking.

      Delete
  2. I hope they don't go for easy points, rather than focusing on what they need to rep to get better.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 4o-1o

    Mullings has a game. One of our WRs too. D looks ready for SC

    ReplyDelete
  4. This game has been decided at the half:

    On the first drive, Barham runs right into a block on 3rd, while Hill is still lost. Get off the field on 3rd!

    Kendrick Bell & CJ Charleston started ... bad omen

    Success rate: yes, Edwards gets the 1yd on 3rd Down. Yes, that's a success. But if you know the game, you see he went down on contact
    With Mullings, it was extra yard(S) on ea carry, no matter the contact
    We want the home runs, but can scheme that for The Don ... no need to force it on a non-Harball back. Also on that INT, it's the second time this season Edwards gives a half-ass attempt to block; 3 guys coming but picks up no one, unsat for a Senior
    After 4 drives: Edwards 13 carries for 7oyds; Mullings 7 carries for 86yds ... a lot of it after contact
    Flip the carries, get Edwards some targets as a receiving option. We'll be in rock fights with mid-conference opponents, and it's obvious who is going to grind out the tough yards while killing the clock

    Evan Link is not the one. Terrible

    Orji can throw two picks v 0 tuddies. Get him a drive or three

    Clap it up for stealing their Kicker!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't understand what Kendrick Bell brings to the table. I mean, maybe if you're just trying to get him snaps for development, but he's not fast, he doesn't have great hands, he's not a devastating blocker, etc. He must just know the playbook really well. (As a former QB, he's probably pretty smart or at least just football savvy.)

      Delete
    2. Time to question the coaches?

      Delete
    3. just admit you're wrong boy!

      Delete
    4. I do - like when I said it would be Bowman over McNamara and Tuttle over Warren. Unfortunately for you -- I'm never wrong in any debates with you because every take you have is #garbage

      Delete
    5. Neither of those were debates liar

      Maybe you mean like our QB & WRs rooms? No, that turned into a summer debate ... and I was right

      RBs matter
      Milton = garage (a quote)
      DT recruiting feel fell behind under Brown
      OL recruiting under RR
      It's okay to question coaches

      Pretty much everything we've ever debated

      Delete
    6. So nice you had to post it twice? Meltdown?

      You haven't been proven right once in ANY disagreement with me. No facts, no links, no quotes, just lies and fantasies. Like #garbage #caseclosed #quotes

      Here's a quote for ya: "feel fell"

      Times 2! LOL

      Delete
    7. you just listed three quotes

      #selfown

      Delete
    8. Did you feel it when you fell?

      Pick all those L's back up lil buddy.

      Delete
  5. QB room (and WR) far worse than I thought, back when I was told I'm wrong

    I'd rather have six or seven ugly wins with Orji than lose six or seven with Warren ... either way it's not our year, but at least Orji is entertaining

    Barham's favorite is running right into a block

    Seven penalties, four on 3d Down

    Their O backups are better than our D backups, but rolder > barham


    *punter job should be wide open

    *still no Cole Cabana ... called that a year ago!

    *Coach Moore looks lifeless out there. Young coach, and his team needs his energy at the highest levels of enthusiasm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Moore has always been pretty low key during games. I just don't think he's the fiery type while the bullets are flying. He can do it before games, maybe during halftime, or get emotional after the game, but I think he wants to be measured and calm during a game. I don't think he's going to be the type to chew out players, throw headphones, etc.

      Delete
  6. That was disconcerting. The regression from last year to this goes well beyond the departed players. There is a fundamental breakdown in the staff and program.

    ReplyDelete