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Sunday, October 27, 2024

Michigan 24, Michigan State 17

 

Colston Loveland (image via MLive)

All hail Davis Warren! I'm not going to pretend that Davis Warren is on track to be J.J. McCarthy, but Warren played his best game of the year in going 13/19 for 123 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. He did not take any sacks and scrambled once for 7 yards. I mentioned on Twitter (before I knew Jack Tuttle would miss the game) that if I were Michigan's coaching staff, I would start Warren and mix in Alex Orji on every third series. Warren got a bad rap early in the year when he made mistakes while other people (Donovan Edwards, Evan Link, Colston Loveland, etc.) were screwing up; Warren took the blame for the team being bad. Now that the offensive line has improved some and other players have adjusted, Warren looks okay. He's not a world-beater, but the kid can play a little bit. I'm happy for him that he got a little bit of redemption. Nobody will ever be able to take away the fact that he quarterbacked Michigan to a rivalry victory over Michigan State.

Hit the jump for more.


Colston Loveland is a gem. As blessed as Michigan has been over the years with good-to-great tight ends, Loveland is the best I've seen in a Michigan uniform - and that game came with Mackey Award-winner Jake Butt broadcasting the game for the Big Ten Network. Loveland's numbers weren't spectacular (6 catches, 67 yards, 2 TD), but he's the only viable pass receiving target on the roster. He did have one drop in the game, which came when he crossed paths with the umpire while the ball was in the air, but his route-running ability, athleticism, and hands make him a ton of fun to watch. Michigan can use him on any kind of route - screens, intermediate routes, and deep routes - and he can both win the route and create some extra yards afterward. I don't know if anyone will have a better run of college tight ends than Miami had (Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow II, Greg Olsen, Randy McMichael, Charles Clay, etc., not to mention basketball player-turned-tight end Jimmy Graham), but here at the end of the Jim Harbaugh, Loveland joining Butt, Erick All, Luke Schoonmaker, Sean McKeon, etc. is a nice capper.

You can take away Mark Dantonio and Mel Tucker, but MSU is still MSU. The chippiness in the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry didn't start with Mark Dantonio, but the run of dirty play in the rivalry did. There are endless clips of Michigan State players twisting ankles, twisting necks, blatantly hitting quarterbacks late, etc. Michigan isn't totally innocent, but MSU goes above and beyond to take the pettiness to unacceptable levels. A few years ago, it was Mark Dantonio and his cronies walking across the field during pre-game warmups and purposefully messing with Devin Bush, Jr. and others who were stretching. There was also the tunnel incident a couple years ago where several Michigan State players jumped Gemon Green and Ja'Den McBurrows. This particular game was competitive but primarily clean - even the targeting call against Michigan State's Jordan Hall wasn't a malicious play - until the final snap. On a kneeldown, Loveland executed a perfectly normal 50% effort block against Michigan State defensive end Anthony Jones. Jones proceeded to shove Loveland after the whistle, then throw a punch/slap that impacted Loveland's helmet. Loveland responded with a head butt, and then Jones tried to put Loveland in a headlock, resulting in the benches clearing, some shoving, and perhaps some punches, etc. It was a pretty embarrassing end, but mostly for Michigan State. If you're MSU at that point, just accept the loss and move on. Both sides knew exactly what was coming - a kneeldown with minimal effort from Michigan's blockers - and one knucklehead in a green uniform had to make it about himself.

Michigan isn't healthy. There are bound to be some injuries throughout a football season, but there are some Michigan injuries that are frustrating/concerning at this point. All-American cornerback Will Johnson missed this game with an injury, and while I'm not questioning his toughness - I'm sure he wanted to play in this game, considering he's a Michigan legacy and he grew up in the state - I'm wondering if his injuries might start affecting his draft status. He was injured to start the 2023 season and has missed two games now in 2024. On top of that, right tackle Andrew Gentry went down with a non-contact injury. Defensive tackle Rayshaun Benny has missed a couple games. Jack Tuttle missed this game after missing the first five contests. Michigan was spoiled in 2023 when virtually every key player was healthy throughout - except Zak Zinter and Benny, who got hurt in the final regular season game and the Rose Bowl, respectively - but this has been a rougher year from a health standpoint.

I was disappointed in Michigan's rush defense. Ultimately, Michigan held Michigan State to 3.9 yards per carry, which is an okay numbers, but running back Nate Carter had way too much success with 19 carries for 118 yards and 1 touchdown, He was particularly successful on a couple 3rd-and-long plays where he gashed Michigan's interior on some zone runs. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is going to have to figure out how to prevent teams from being successful in those situations; it was zone runs in this game on 3rd-and-long, and it was running back draw plays last week against Illinois. Carter is a decent back who showed some really nice balance, but Michigan needs to tackle better, especially since the season ends with Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson of Ohio State.

The pass defense was okay, though. I was worried that Michigan State receiver Nick Marsh would have himself a good day in the absence of Will Johnson, but Marsh had just 4 catches for 42 yards and 1 touchdown. Obviously, I would like for him not to have scored a touchdown - which came against Aamir Hall in man coverage - but it was far better than what Marsh did against Maryland, which got him close to 200 yards receiving. Cameron Brandt, Derrick Moore, and Josaiah Stewart all notched sacks, including a strip sack of Aidan Chiles (17/23, 189 yards, 1 TD) by Stewart. Chiles was able to complete some short passes and screens, but the lone downfield shot he hit was a seam route to Montorie Foster, Jr. that beat Zeke Berry. Overall, though, I thought the secondary covered pretty well, the pass rush was consistent, and the secondary's tackling was solid, other than on Marsh's touchdown. Cornerback Jyaire Hill stepped up with a solid game in coverage, notching a pass breakup and allowing just 2 catches for 10 yards. It wasn't a stellar day, but in the absence of an All-American cornerback, that should be good enough to win.

Kudos to Kirk Campbell. We've been all over Campbell this season for lots of reasons - poor personnel decisions, questionable play calling, not putting his players in a position to win, etc. This week he moved down from the booth to the sideline - a move Sherrone Moore also made early in his tenure as offensive coordinator - and whether that was the reason or not, the offense seemed to click a little better. I didn't love Campbell's play calling on the second-to-last offensive drive, but there were some masterful calls. Michigan broke out a flea flicker, popped a touchdown to Loveland, ran a toss pass with Donovan Edwards throwing to Loveland, etc., and generally showed some creativity with different formations. I really want to emphasize that I appreciated what he did with Alex Orji, which included creating more +1 run opportunities. This was something he was not doing with consistency early in the season. On top of that, it felt like Michigan leaned on Michigan State a little bit late in the game, using Orji as a battering ram against a tired defense. This is not to say that MSU was worn out by anything Michigan did, but you bring in some fresh legs on a 235 pound body late in a game, do some +1 runs, and good things happen. The Spartans didn't want to tackle Orji late in the game, and it showed. His final rush could have gone for a much bigger gain, but Orji slid to a stop inbounds to keep the clock running and ensure a victory. In some ways, this victory was reminiscent of the last few seasons, where Michigan just wore out defenses in the second half. Michigan doesn't have the talent to truly break teams like they have in the past, but if they can keep games close in the fourth quarter, I think they have the personnel and ability on offense to eke out some extra yardage.

Sad but true. Michigan's last four games are going to be a tough stretch, but with the improvement to 5-3, the Wolverines are now just one win away from bowl eligibility. Obviously, this squad isn't national championship-worthy, but a drop-off to a losing season would be a huge disappointment. I don't care much about bowl game records or anything like that, but bowl games do add 15 practices where players can be developed for the following year. I think it's very important for Michigan to get to 6+ wins this year for multiple reasons, including development, morale, recruiting perceptions, etc. Now Michigan has Oregon, Indiana, Northwestern, and Ohio State on the docket, and they'll likely be underdogs in three of those four games. I'm not ceding any of those games, but a home game against Northwestern on November 23 might loom very large.

31 comments:

  1. On Warren, he was fine because he didn't screw up. I don't mean to be down on the guy, but this rivalry win - while great for right now, this week - changes nothing going forward. I think two-QB system is our best bet, but with the Redshirt no longer a concern, we should expect Jayden Davis. Yeah, I am doubtful because of size, but a guy who isn't chomping at the bit to help probably doesn't fit our culture either. And while Warren was okay, those numbers shouldn't be too much to ask for a FRQB, while developing for the future. When do we insert Jayden? That's something for the coaches to decide on


    MSU is dirty. That Loveland "headbutt" was the kind of thing we see between players all game, every week across the nation. His headlock & swinging are worthy of suspension


    Michigan isn't healthy. Is it a S&C issue? Bad luck? Not sure, but Herbert's replacement should be under just as much scrutiny as both coordinators & the SpTms dud


    Sparty RB Carter great. Loved his vision, balance, cuts & power. This goes to show that in the Portal era, there are gems to be found. I'd take over any of our remaining RBs going into 25


    Campbell deserves a lot of kudos for this win. We had nothing from our offense outside of his gimmicks


    add PennSt to the list of backup QBs who outplay our entire room. When looking in the portal, that Analyst underground should be asking & looking into depth charts too

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    1. *"we had nothing" is extreme & exaggerated. Fanatical talk ... take with grain of salt

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    2. Davis should play only in meaningless situations. His mechanics are wonky and his delivery point is very low. The insider rumblings are all saying he's not ready. And I mean....you've seen the other 3 options and he's not in the convo.

      If he's not close to being ready there's no point in throwing him in there to get destroyed.

      Then again -- these coaches are making all kinds of dubious depth chart decisions so I would not say it's 0% that he comes in and shines LOL. The bar is very low right now.

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    3. 1oo%. Obviously decided games, not starting. I'm looking at a kid who is fine with redshirt (realistic & long-term team needs) v an athlete with no interest in competing

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  2. Warren and Orji combined for the best QB performance of the season. I think mixing those two is the path for the rest of the year if Michigan wants to pull an upset against 1 of the 3 top 15 opponents on the schedule. Or at least be competitive in one of them.

    Warren avoiding turnovers was a massive step forward. Can excuse some of them in the past and put it on other people but most has been on him. He has been a disaster -- 7 INTs in under 100 pass attempts. Yesterday he was not a disaster. Credit Campbell and Moore for simplifying things -- very few throws downfield this game - plenty of easy stuff to RBs. But you still saw a lot of missed opportunities left on the field. That's a lack of talent coming out. But the throw on the flee flicker was definitely excellent as was the one to Morris. Again, we can complain about WR talent being subpar but Loveland is as good of a receiver as any wideout we've had here in years, and he gets open all the time. Warren was better yesterday, but the offense still struggles with him at the helm. That's going to happen with a one-dimensional QB whose one dimension is mediocre at best.

    The tradeoff for having a one-dimensional QB was evident in this game. The RBs had 22 carries for 44 yards. The pass threat was extant, but didn't help them out at all. It hinders them.

    Enter Orji who made multiple big plays as a runner and was mixed in nicely by Campbell and company to facilitate both of the 2nd half TD drives.

    It's a nice recipe, or at least the best one we can cook up with the ingredients we have. But something has to change because we had way too many run run pass 3 and out drives when playing it conventional. Have to keep the defense guessing!

    Keep mixing Warren and Orji, but gonna need to lean into Orji more and, you know, do the throw the ball forward thing with him, occasionally.

    Whereas I started the season wanting them to rotate series, I've come around to some situational play-to-play substitutions also.

    Biggest thing -- don't turn the ball over. Seems that leads to winning.

    -----------------------------------------

    The schedule is what it is. No more coin toss games with single digit lines. 6-6 seems like the locked in outcome at this point. Maybe you can squint and see some hope for Indiana. Probably requires Benny and Will Johnson being back.

    If you want to be optimistic, it might be that Campbell and company are starting to figure out some things on offense. But that's definitely a maize-tinted glasses outlook, there was a lot of struggle yesterday, once again. A turnover free day is an accomplishment, but it also feels like Michigan got a little lucky on either side of half time.

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  3. I'm coming around to the idea that the coaches are finally starting to understand a few things -- albeit with some remaining glitches -- and they're cobbling together a team that will do what it can with the talent on hand.

    Not a fan of Loveland's "Li'l Bro" comments. I'm in the minority about that, but I think that phrase should be retired for good.

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  4. What explains Mullings' rather lackluster performance? Was it Michigan's blocking? MSU's defensive line? Or Mullings just not going where he could have / should have?

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    1. Sparty threw everything at stopping our run, which has been the Backs all season. Even when Orji was starting, the coaches didn't make the most of his biggest asset

      Take a look at our passing plays. Loveland is an All-American & certain 1st Round pick, but was all alone at least 7 times (first play Warren didn't see him; second the Ref was in the way). Kendrick Bell? All alone. Semaj 1st Down? Left open. Even on the flea flicker, Morris wasn't wide open but had cushion

      Sparty played to stop the RB, just like they did last week against Iowa. They dared us to pass, and it almost worked

      I hope other teams do this too, as Moore seems to like truck plays. Let's have some fun and ruin some seasons

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    2. Neither running back was successful running the ball. Mullings averaged 1.8 yards/carry and Edwards averaged 2.4 (IIRC). Michigan State was kicking Michigan's butt up front, and they weren't respecting the pass, which isn't surprising.

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    3. I have a simple explanation - Mullings is playing very well, just as he did earlier in the year. He had several excellent blocks on Saturday.

      The results aren't there in the box score because RBs have limited control over how many yards they produce. YPC is a team stat.

      Because the QB is one-dimensional and doesn't produce much of a pass threat (Warren is better than Orji but not enough to scare anyone) the defense can focus on stopping the RBs, which they have done all year except when they aren't using safeties to stop the QB run.

      For 3 straight games now, Mullings has fewer YPC than Edwards. Is that a meaningful indicator that Edwards is outplaying Mullings? No - it is not.

      Mullings is a good RB who is playing well. The end.

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    4. Replace Mullings and Edwards with an average Big Ten back, we are probably 3-5 as supposed to 5-3. Mullings was beastmode earlier in the year.

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    5. @FT

      You sure?

      People say stuff like this all the time but I remember how much credit Blake Corum was getting for Michigan's success in 2022.... Doom and gloom when we lost our VERY IMPORTANT superstar in the Illinois game.

      We know how things went with the backup/replacement that time... the star RB wasn't missed at all.

      The narrative then, after 2022, was "well of course that's only because that backup it turns out is ALSO awesome!" He's so good we're going to have not one but TWO guys rushing for 1K yards in 2023, it was said. But then in 2023 when the backup was a backup again he was "not playing well", until he was, in the second half of the season. Now in 2024 he can't do anything other than outrun safeties if given space, according to some and Mullings should be getting all the carries according to some...until the last few weeks when Edwards has outproduced Mulling and now we want a balanced workload?

      Honestly who can keep up. The story changes all the time! I'm not even sure some of the people here think Edwards is better than an average Big Ten back. Probably depends on how he does against Oregon - that's how flimsy these RB takes are.

      Anyway I am not sure we are 3-5 with Ben Hall necessarily. He's a solid back too with a good skillset. People will probably love him next year and you'll hear how integral he is to the offense and how things would fall apart if he wasn't there....

      same ol same ol

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    6. The argument here centers on the variability of skill and effect of running backs, and Lank's assertion seems to be that there is not much variability; that within the set of Mullings, Edwards, Hall, and perhaps others in the Michigan RB room, there is very little difference to be found in effective outcome. That's been his assertion for several years now.

      The debate really comes down to the extent of variability; or, if we view RB skill and yardage outcome as a normal distribution, what does that normal distribution looks like. I think there's more variability than Lank seems to suggest, but I would agree it's probably a tighter curve than some other positions.

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    7. "But then in 2023 when the backup was a backup again he was "not playing well"

      "dud games" That's what I remember here. That was a good one. We all agreed!

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    8. @Anon

      My argument is in regard to the effect, not the skills. The skills can vary but coaches can and should adapt if they have, for example, Darren Sproles or Ron Dayne in the backfield.

      But yes -- assuming the above -- I don't think there's much variation in outcomes. The assertions that losing a RB is impactful is very hard to prove and the counterexamples are many.

      To me, what happened in 2022 is a canonical example. Because Blake Corum was such an excellent player - the best RB of our lifetimes IMO - and because Donovan Edwards has been roundly criticized throughout his career by many here (no vision, can't break tackles, no balance, can't run between the tackles, WR not a RB, unreliable etc.). Edwards stepped up, with a broken hand no less, with 70 carries, 520 yards in 3 starts where Michigan producing 40+ points every game.

      The greatest RB of our lifetimes (according to most), replaced by a severely limited player (according to some), and the net effect in results is unable to disprove the null hypothesis.

      That was the ultimate litmus test -- and the impact of the RB wasn't there.

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    9. @Anon Oct 27 at 5:17 PM, if you read the UFR, it reads like my initial response: sparty gambled against our RBs, at the expense of leaving Receivers (and even Orji) unbothered ... he also grades Mullings positive, so there's that

      Somethin, somethin, trust the experts

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  5. One thing I do not understand: when Orji started, why weren’t there more designed QB runs? I can count with one hand the number of designed QB run for Orji.

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    1. The only explanation I can think of is that the coaches were fixated on a certain set of ideas about offensive identify and play set, and it took them several games to come off that fixation.

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    2. Coaches thought the best path was to keep their system in place and coach up the QBs to fit it. Not change the system to fit the QB.

      If you see this season is a one-off (new QB next year) this makes some sense.

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  6. @thunder

    I'm curious if you have any thoughts on why the RBs struggled to produce against MSU. Do you think they are playing poorly or do you think MSU was loading up the box and bringing their safeties up making their job too difficult?

    Would you put this on the RBs? Campbell? Warren? OL?

    Mgoblog's take:

    "It is impossible to run the ball against this. Even when Michigan State wasn't inserting the safeties they were +1 in the box and using the linebackers so aggressively that even successful doubles were useless since MSU safeties would be at the LOS on either side of that block."

    You wrote above:
    "Michigan State was kicking Michigan's butt up front, and they weren't respecting the pass, which isn't surprising.""

    It seems like the opposing defense was not too worried about downfield passing. Furthermore, it seems this coaching staff does not trust Warren to throw downfield that much more than they trust Orji to throw the ball downfield. (a handful of times a game). You know how I feel -- Warren is a better passer than Orji, but not a GOOD passer. So the needle moves incrementally, but not by much.

    If I'm Campbell I focus on maximizing whatever you can to complement the primary thing you can do well (running with Mullings and Edwards, occasional throws to Loveland). I don't think that happened very effectively against MSU, and while the RBs produced OK numbers against Illinois, I don't think that was very good either (given Illinois is a bad rush D).

    Anyway we both agree that some mix of Orji and Warren is the correct choice going forward. So what do you think is going to be the best way to get the RBs going again, as the level of difficulty ramps up? What's the best option for discouraging defenses from cheating on stopping Mullings and Edwards?

    IMO, we need to come close to the 2023 PSU game's box score to have any chance of upsetting Oregon, OSU, or Indiana. ~5-10 passes completed, ~5-10 QB rushes, 35-40 RB carries for >170 yards. Especially if Link is back at OT, further diminishing the prospects for the downfield passing game.

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  7. "Furthermore, it seems this coaching staff does not trust Warren to throw downfield that much more than they trust Orji to throw the ball downfield"


    Soooo ... no passes downfield = lack of trust. Agree. Last year's debate: no pass attempts = lack of trust

    #iwasright

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    1. Still ignoring Orji was trusted to throw against Alabama, the the Rose Bowl, in the playoff. He took a sack instead of throwing it away but similar play yesterday and he did the right thing.

      Anyway, yeah, Orji was trusted to throw, in a meaningful context, more than Tuttle (0 meaningful attempts) or Warren (0 meaningful attempts) or anyone else that wasn't JJ. So was Donovan Edwards.

      This year, Denegal and Davis are not trusted to throw in meaningful context either. Just like Denegal and Warren and Tuttle were not trusted to throw in meaningful context either.

      Denegal (completly unplayable, still, in 2024) WAS trusted to throw in mop up duty because it doesn't matter who throws in mop up duty. But that's real meaningful to you?

      #outsmarted

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    2. You changed your position again ...

      Orji wasn't trusted to throw in garbage time, AT ALL ... . Gadget only, and that lone opportunity was blown so badly, they trust Semaj just as much Saturday (gadget only)

      Warren had several meaningful throws yesterday. Two were TDs

      You don't have to agree with the facts. But they are what they are

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    3. No change in position. Orji was trusted to throw in not only a meaningful situation but a CRITICAL situation in the rose bowl.

      My position is that garbage time attempts don't really much matter -- and Denegal proves that point. He attempted just as many as Warren and more than Orji in 2023. He's irrelevant in 2024.

      Warren went 0-5 with 1 INT and he's your starter along with a guy who went 0-0.

      Garbage time snaps -- irrelevant!

      Your position was that it meant a lot, but Denegal proves you wrong.

      #youwerewrong

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    4. 2023 garbage time pass attempts. Orji 0 Denegal 5
      2024 pass attempts. Orji 46 Denegal 0.

      Correlation? Nope
      Relevance? None

      Sorry about the facts

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    5. Orji's lack of passing attempts is relevant. It indicated he couldn't/wouldn't be trusted to pass, and he hasn't been.

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    6. Denegal? As if I have ever had a positive thing to say about him? Recall, before the season started, I joked about how I chased him into the Portal in my CFB25 team ... oh wait, I get it. LyinLank is changing topics again

      Who said garbage time passes meant a lot? I said ONE attempt in 29 games meant a lot ... and this year, ONE attempt in THREE games since being benched means a lot. That they gave Semaj the go ahead attempt over Orji shows he's not even the most trusted gimmick. But since you're changing the debate (again), how about a bet: prove I said garbage time means a lot. BET ME BOY


      Bet me, or take your L. Coaches didn't trust Orji to pass last year, and were forced to take a chance this year ... they regretted it

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    7. @Thunder

      Ah but he HAS been trusted to pass Thunder. He was trusted to pass 18 times against Minnesota as a starter. 46 times on the season. 3 more times against Oregon, just a few days ago. I guess you aren't watching, that explains a lot.

      Orji didn't do well enough to hold onto the job, but he WAS trusted to play, start, and pass as QB. Just like Warren. The reason he lost the job was his ineffective play in 2024. Just like Warren. His lack of pass attempts in 2023 was irrelevant, just like Warren going 0-5 was irrelevant. Just like Denegal going 4/5 is irrelevant.

      Be honest -- you KNOW it's irrelevant!

      Delete


    8. @Jelly

      LOOK ABOVE YOU
      "Last year's debate: no pass attempts = lack of trust"

      does that NOT mean that "pass attempts = trust" or nah?

      You were drawing a distinction between Orji (not trusted) and the other QBs (trusted). Did you ever say the coaching staff didn't trust Warren? or Tuttle? or Denegal? Was it just Orji?

      Your argument was that garbage time attempts (and/or lack of them) are relevant. If you want to back off that - go for it. White flag accepted.

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      That they gave Semaj the go ahead attempt over Warren shows he's not even the most trusted gimmick. <------equally true

      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      What do you THINK the debate is about Jelly, in your little fantasy muddled brain?
      "Orji wasn't trusted to throw in garbage time, AT ALL"

      Correct, he was only trusted to throw in meaningful situations in the playoff.

      Hold it up.

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    9. @ Lank 3:57 p.m.

      LOL. I have no idea what you're going on about.

      When I say it's relevant, I mean it's relevant.

      You're saying I mean the opposite of what I'm saying. That's a Lank problem, not a Thunder problem.

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    10. OK but how is it relevant?

      When Orji started at QB for Michigan in 2024 was it relevant that he attempted zero passes in 2023?

      When Warren started at QB for Michigan in 2024 was it relevant that he attempted 5 passes in 2023?

      When Denegal sat the bench for the entire season despite a woeful QB situation that cycled through 3 other starters in 2024, was it relevant that he attempted 5 passes in 2023?

      Again, Orji HAS been trusted to pass, again and again. Denegal has not. Warren has. There is no correlation here.

      Delete