RUSH OFFENSE vs. OREGON RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan didn't help itself too much last week, but they rank #52 nationally in rush offense (172.6 yards/game) and #61 in yards per carry (4.67). Both Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards were held under 2.5 yards/carry, but backup QB Alex Orji rotated in with starter Davis Warren to average 10.7 yards/carry on 6 attempts and score 1 touchdown. The offensive line also suffered a loss with new starting RT Andrew Gentry suffering a non-contact injury, which message board rumors suggest is a season-ender. Oregon is #40 in rush defense (123.5 yards allowed/game) and #68 in yards allowed per carry (4.05). They have shut down some of the bad teams on their schedule, but teams like Purdue, Boise State, Ohio State, and Illinois have run the ball decently. Star DT Jordan Burch (6'6", 295) has been out with a knee injury but might return this week; he has 19 tackles and 7 tackles for loss in five games this season. Otherwise, redshirt junior DT Derrick Harmon (6'5", 310) is a Michigan State transfer who has 27 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss. Fifth year senior MLB Bryce Boettcher (6'2", 225) leads the team with 46 tackles, followed by senior Ole Miss transfer Tysheem Johnson (5'10", 200) with 39. Another player to note is sophomore OLB Matayo Uiagalelei (6'5", 270), who has 27 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss. I think Michigan is going to struggle to run the ball against a quick Oregon defense, especially if Burch returns and is in good form.
Advantage: Oregon
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. OREGON PASS DEFENSE
The abysmal quarterback play took a step forward last week as Davis Warren (13/19, 123 yards, 1 TD) avoided a turnover for the first time in the four games he has played this year. Michigan helped him out with a flea flicker, some nice play action, and a toss pass from Donovan Edwards to Colston Loveland for a touchdown. (Unfortunately, seventh year senior QB Jack Tuttle - who started against Illinois and played most of the game against Washington - was forced into retirement after suffering at least his fifth career concussion against the Illini.) So instead of being a three-man race, it now comes down to Warren and Orji to man the QB position down the stretch. Loveland continues to be the lone consistent receiving target; his 42 catches are more than double the amount of the next guy on the receptions list, which is Semaj Morgan with 20. Redshirt freshman RT Andrew Link replaced the injured Gentry, and while pass protection looks to have improved, Link has been a turnstile for most of the season. That's concerning when going against Uiagalelei (6.5 sacks), Burch (5.0), and Harmon (3.0). The Wolverines will have to do some different things to help out Link and the others. Oregon is #14 in sacks per game (3.0). Senior Oklahoma State transfer CB Jabbar Muhammad (5'10", 185) has 7 pass breakups this season. The Ducks are #51 in interceptions per game (0.88), led by Johnson with 2 picks. Michigan has yet to show they can throw the ball consistently, especially without gimmicks like double passes and flea flickers, so I still expect a pretty weak passing effort from the Wolverines.
Advantage: Oregon
RUSH DEFENSE vs. OREGON RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #15 in rush defense (101 yards allowed/game) and #21 in yards allowed per rush (3.37). In their 1-2 stretch over the past three games, they have allowed all three teams to surpass 100 yards, while there was only one such game in the first five. Illinois found success on draws and Michigan State just ran for first downs in 3rd-and-long situations where they caught Michigan in some form of exotic front, so the coaching staff needs to figure out how to tamp down those runs at unique times. Inside linebackers Ernest Hausmann (56) and Jaishawn Barham (46) lead the team in tackles, while EDGE Josaiah Stewart leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss (11.0). I have been very impressed with Oregon RB Jordan James (5'10", 210), who has quickness and runs behind his pads to the tune of 800 yards and 8 touchdowns on 5.88 yards/carry. Seventh year senior QB Dillon Gabriel (6'0", 200) also has good wheels despite multiple knee injuries and has scored 5 touchdowns on the ground, though he has just 97 net rushing yards this season. Overall, Oregon is #61 nationally in rush offense (167.1 yards/game) and #58 in yards per carry (4.72). Junior LT Josh Conerly (6'4", 315) and fifth year senior RT Ajani Cornelius (6'5", 315) are the top players up front, but the interior is a little weaker. The Ducks use some tempo, so one of my big concerns here is if Michigan's front gets tired . . . or if they see backup defensive linemen on the field and then use tempo to keep them on the field. Michigan has a better front, but I think fatigue will kick in, especially if Michigan's offense can't sustain drives.
Advantage: Oregon
PASS DEFENSE vs. OREGON PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #85 in pass defense (228.5 yards allowed/game) and #32 in yards allowed per attempt (6.4). They're #60 in passing efficiency defense, which is probably a more accurate measurement: middle of the pack. Third downs have been especially troublesome, and they may not get the benefit of having All-American CB Will Johnson, who missed last week's game with an undisclosed injury and is still questionable. The opposite corner, Jyaire Hill, has improved this year, but Albany transfer CB Aamir Hall can still be a liability and so can nickel corner Zeke Berry. Luckily, Michigan has a good front with Stewart (6.5 sacks) and they average 2.63 sacks/game, which is tied for #25 nationally. Meanwhile, Gabriel is one of the best passers in the country, with a quick and accurate delivery. He has completed 76.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards/attempt and has thrown 18 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. They're #12 overall in passing (300 yards/game) and #8 in passing efficiency. Senior WR Tez Johnson (5'10", 165) is slight but both quick and fast, and he has 63 catches for 638 yards and 8 touchdowns. Junior WR Evan Stewart (6'0", 175), a Texas A&M transfer, is second on the team with 28 catches for 446 yards and 3 scores. Senior TE Terrance Ferguson (6'5", 255) is one of the better tight ends in the country and has 20 catches for 321 yards, and sophomore TE Kenyon Sadiq (6'3", 245) is a solid backup with 15 catches for 198 yards; surprisingly, neither TE has scored a touchdown yet this year, but that's probably because other guys are just scoring before they have a chance. Those TEs are plenty capable. The Ducks are tied for 28th with just 1.25 sacks allowed/game. Overall, I like Oregon's creativity, and I think Tez Johnson, Ferguson, and others are going to be tough to take down for a Michigan secondary that hasn't been great at tackling, especially if Will Johnson is unavailable.
Advantage: Oregon
ROSTER NOTES
- Oregon players offered by Michigan include: OT Josh Conerly, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jayden Limar, WR Jeremiah McClellan, QB Dante Moore, WR Ryan Pellum, LB Brayden Platt, TE Kenyon Sadiq, DT A'Mauri Washington, S Peyton Woodyard
- Oregon players from the state of Michigan include: DT Derrick Harmon (Detroit Loyola), QB Dante Moore (Detroit King)
PREDICTION
- Oregon 31, Michigan 16
I picked this as one a near sure win early. Oregon traveling across the landscape, in November, after weeks of B1G play ...
ReplyDeleteEven with Will out (again), I'll go upset: 26-24 because let's go ruin their season!
37-13
ReplyDeletetough to find weaknesses or roster holes at oregon. theyre strong up front on both sides of the ball, their QB has been playing lights out, their staff does a great job during the week and on game day.
michigan LBs lack football instincts and theyve been a poor tackling team all year. and michigan doesnt have the horses on O, clearly. could be a long day. hopefully im dead wrong
Of course you are right. So is Thunder. Klatt. MGo. But this is CFB and we have the chance to be a spoiler ... why not us?
DeleteWoke up feeling like it was a day for college football upsets ... maybe in CBus?
ReplyDelete- we are too easily blocked on the perimeter
- no challenge on the first Oregon TD? Incompetence. Analysts should be screaming into the headsets
- did we run an End Around to the TE?
- I expected Moore to play Orji & Mullings on the RZ TD, but was surprised it worked with Warren passing
- the difference on those last two drives of the half: Gabriel has playmakers to throw to ... I mean, Orji gets his first Attempt in a month, and it's to ... max bredeson? Help your QB out!
- our Offense tendencies have been exploited. If Mullings is in, crash the line of scrimmage
- only reception for The Don was the garbage time last drive ... get him the dang ball!
- 3 WRs caught passes, and only five total. Warren had a couple throws that I didn't think he could make. Also finished with a higher QBR than Gabriel, so there's that
- that Semaj had as many pass attempts as Orji is frustrating
*I did not expect BOTH our starting corners to sit out. The team kept fighting; kudos to Loveland & Graham, they deserve better. (most) The rest are just not fast enough, strong enough or good enough. Onward
Nevermind, that last pass to Hansen dropped Warren's QBR
DeleteWe need another Revenge Tour, and need payback in Eugene for that last TD of theirs!
ReplyDeleteI switched off my television when Trey Pierce lined up incorrectly on 4th down. This team is badly coached on all 3 fronts. Offense, defense and Special Teams, I thought Warren played well enough today to win a football game. je93 is right in saying our run game has been fully scouted and exploited. It is just disappointing that the coaches cannot think of a counter when opponents crashed the line of scrimmage.
ReplyDeleteI kept thinking, "Mullings in, playaction pass DEEP" and "Orji is in, they're finally gonna let it rip" ... then my dumb@ss thought, "here we go, The Don is gonna get a wheel route"
DeleteFoolish. Instead we passed to Orji with ... Semaj
The coaching is bad.
DeleteWarren did not play well enough to win this game. Not even close. If you assume a Joe Moore winning OL driving a dominant run game, and NFL receivers all around him, plus a top 10 defense....then yes, he did play well enough to win (by doing the basic thing of avoiding mistakes). But it's not the case, and rarely will it be.
Warren is not good enough to execute anything that punishes the opponents for crashing the LOS, so I don't know that you can put that on the coaches. They don't throw downfield! They're leaning into gimmicks and tricks because they know their one-dimensional QB is mediocre at that one-dimension.
Which QB am I talking about? Both! LOL
Agree:
Delete"They're leaning into gimmicks and tricks because they know their one-dimensional QB is mediocre at that one-dimension"
Finally!
@ Lank 5:26 p.m.
DeleteI don't know what this means: "Warren didn't play well enough to win this game." Michigan lost by 3 touchdowns. They couldn't stop Oregon's offense. They didn't have a running game. Nobody except Loveland could get open.
No, Warren can't go out there and score 41 points all by himself. Duh. But the first TD shouldn't have been a TD, the running game didn't do anything, and the play calling was atrocious for much of the game (the lateral runs early in the game, the play calling leading up to Semaj Morgan's pass attempt, etc.).
Again, Warren played well. He graded out well. He's the third-highest graded player on Michigan's offense, behind Kalel Mullings and Colston Loveland...and that's even with those early-season games included!
@Thunder
DeleteWhy didn't thee running game do anything? The running game didn't do anything because the defense cheated to shut it down, because they don't threaten anywhere else. That's the QBs fault.
You repeatedly credit the passing threat for opening the run, so if it's not happening shouldn't it go the other way? Continued insistence that this is not the QBs fault when they put up inoffensive passing stats (high completion %, low turnovers, modest gains) doesn't make sense.
Warren is responsible for THE OFFENSES performance. Not just the passing stats.
Maybe you can approach this a different way.... Can you explain what has happened to turn Kalell Mullings from a guy who ran for 7ypc against Minny and USC into a guy running for 3ypc against Illinois MSU and Oregon?