Preview: Michigan vs. Purdue

 

Purdue QB Ryan Browne (image via ESPN)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH DEFENSE
The big question this week is about RB Justice Haynes, who was seen in a walking boot earlier this week. He's one of the top few backs in the country this season. Michigan is #14 in rushing (220.1 yards/game) and #10 in yards per carry (5.75). If Haynes can't go, it will be Jordan Marshall (99 carries, 544 yards, 5 TD) and freshman Jasper Parker (15 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD) who will likely handle most of the carries. The offensive line and tight ends are doing a fairly good job run blocking, especially considering three starters are redshirt freshmen. Purdue is #76 in rushing defense (149 yards allowed/game) and #61 in yards allowed per carry (3.95). Odom is a former defensive coordinator with a pretty solid track record, but the Boilermakers have been up and down, giving up 254 yards on the ground to Notre Dame and just 30 rushing yards to Minnesota. They're led in tackles by senior LB Mani Powell (6'2", 230) with 76 stops, sophomore LB Charles Correa (6'3", 230) with 72, and senior S Tahj Ra-El (6'2", 208) with 68. The team is #33 in tackles for loss (including 6.25 per game), led by senior DE C.J. Nunnally IV (6'3", 265) with 7.5 and Powell with 7.0. Michigan has shown that it is committed to running the ball, and they should be able to do so pretty consistently, even if Haynes has to sit.
Advantage: Michigan

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PASS OFFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is a pretty abysmal #103 in passing offense (190.8 yards/game) but #55 in yards per attempt (7.6) and #84 in passing efficiency, which makes some sense considering a freshman quarterback and a run-oriented offense. Quarterback Bryce Underwood (8/17, 86 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT last week) didn't have his best game against Michigan State, but he didn't put the ball in harm's way, either. Receiver Donaven McCulley (25 catches, 378 yards, 2 TD) has been quiet lately while WR Andrew Marsh (21 catches, 351 yards, 2 TD) has been coming on. Use of the tight ends has been inconsistent, with them having a huge game two weeks ago and all but disappearing in the pass game against the Spartans. On the other side, Purdue is #106 in pass defense (245.6 yards allowed/game), #130 in yards allowed per attempt (9.0), and #128 in pass efficiency defense. Ouch. They have allowed 10+ yards per attempt against four teams: USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, and Rutgers. (By comparison, Michigan has not allowed 10+ yards per attempt since the playoff game against Georgia in 2021.) This is despite being #33 in sacks (2.38 per game), led by Nunnally with 5. Purdue has just 2 interceptions this season. Former blue-chip recruit Tony Grimes (6'2", 195) starts at cornerback after playing at UNC, Texas A&M, and UNLV, following head coach Barry Odom from Las Vegas to West Lafayette, but there has been a lot of confusion and busted coverage in the secondary. This feels like a game where Michigan could open it up to try to get Underwood going again, but also one where Underwood might turn the ball over once. I think offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey is good enough to create some wide open routes against Purdue's back seven.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #15 in rush defense (95.5 yards allowed/game) and #13 in yards allowed per carry (2.97). They uncharacteristically allowed 109 yards to Michigan State running back Makhi Frazier last week . . . but allowed just 115 rushing yards altogether, so the other MSU runners only accounted for 6 yards. The concern on the defensive side of the ball is at linebacker, where the tremendous depth to start the season has taken a hit: LB Jaishawn Barham moved to edge, LB Jimmy Rolder suffered a lower body injury, and LB Cole Sullivan suffered an arm injury. Also, experienced backup LB Jaydon Hood is out for the season with an injury. While LB Ernest Hausmann (55 tackles) should start, it could be LB Troy Bowles (11 tackles), a 6'2", 230 lb. Georgia transfer, starting next to him unless Barham moves back to LB. If it were up to me, I would prefer to see Barham back to playing some ILB temporarily and letting T.J. Guy take back over at edge. Michigan is #27 in tackles for loss per game (6.68), led by Barham and DE Derrick Moore with 7 each. Purdue is #86 in rushing offense (141.6 yards/game) and #64 in yards per carry (4.39). The leader is senior RB Devin Mockobee, who looks and plays bigger than his listed 6'0", 208 lbs.; Mockobee has 125 carries for 521 yards and 4 touchdowns. I'm intrigued by the other running options, including QB Ryan Browne (6'4", 210), who has 165 yards and 4 TD on the ground, and QB Malachi Singleton (6'1", 235), who has 151 yards and 1 TD at 5.35 yards/attempt. But the backup running backs have come on lately with Antonio Harris (8 carries, 111 yards, 1 TD over the past four games) and Malachi Thomas (14 carries, 117 yards over the past three games). With Michigan possibly shuffling linebackers and edge defenders around, could the running backs and running quarterbacks cause some problems?
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan ranks #55 in passing defense (212 yards allowed/game), #23 in yards allowed per attempt (6.3), and #41 in pass efficiency defense. They have forced 11 interceptions this season and have recorded at least one in each game except for Michigan State last week. Unfortunately, the leading interceptor (Cole Sullivan with 3) is likely out with that arm injury. Moore is #3 in the Big Ten in sacks with 6.5, including 2 in each of the past two games. Overall, Michigan is #23 in sacks per game (2.63). Purdue's offensive line is one of its weak points, especially the right side with RG Ethan Trent (6'2", 295), who is not good at all, and RT Bakyne Coly (6'7", 300). Browne has completed 59.5% of his throws for 7.0 yards/attempt, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, but he hasn't topped that 7.0 number in the past four games. Backup QB Singleton (18/31, 266 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) is mostly a runner. Senior WR Michael Jackson III (6'0", 205) leads the team with 44 catches for 398 yards and 1 TD, and yes, it's odd for a #1 wideout to be averaging fewer than 10.0 yards/catch; Jackson also doubles as a kick returner, and he got tracked down pretty easily last week by Rutgers, lacking any semblance of breakaway speed. Former Michigan target (both out of high school and the transfer portal) Nitro Tuggle (6'1", 195) is the #2 guy with 19 catches for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns. Sophomore WR Corey Smith (6'1", 185) is another target to watch (14 catches, 237 yards, 1 TD) but he has been held catch-less in three games this season. Overall, the ability of the quarterbacks to run could open up some receivers downfield and create an occasional havoc play, but Michigan should be able to handle what Purdue throws at them.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Purdue players recruited by Michigan include: OL Marques Easley, CB Tony Grimes, DL Jamarrion Harkless, DE Breeon Ishmail, LB Parker Meese, S Myles Slusher, WR Nitro Tuggle
• Purdue players from the state of Michigan include: QB Ryan Browne (Clarkston), OL Bakyne Coly (Farmington), DB Kaleb Richmond (Cass Tech)
• Purdue DE Breeon Ishmail began his career at Michigan before transferring
• Purdue QB Garyt Odom is the son of head coach Barry Odom
• Purdue TE Luke Klare is the brother of Ohio State (and former Purdue) TE Max Klare

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• On November 4, 2023, Michigan beat Purdue by a score of 41-13
• QB J.J. McCarthy completed 24/37 passes for 335 yards
• WR Semaj Morgan had a 44-yard rushing score
• WR Roman Wilson caught 9 passes for 153 yards
• CB Will Johnson returned an interception for 26 yards

PREDICTION

• I could see this game, which is being played in Ann Arbor, turning into the 2025 version of last year's Northwestern game (a 50-6 romp in Ann Arbor), but the injuries to Haynes, Sullivan, and Rolder make me think it will be more like Michigan 34, Purdue 13.