RUSH OFFENSE vs. UCONN RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #9 in rush offense (251 yards/game) and #4 in yards per carry (6.88). The team has rushed for 9 touchdowns, which is tied for #5. Keep in mind that those stats have come against a couple cupcakes. Blake Corum (164 yards, 2 TD) is the leading rusher, and the #2 guy is true freshman C.J. Stokes (96 yards, 1 TD). Star sophomore Donovan Edwards has an ankle injury and may not be available. Connecticut is #94 in rush defense (165 yards allowed/game) but is a little more respectable in yards per carry allowed (3.9). Junior inside linebacker Jackson Mitchell (6'3", 227 lbs.) leads the team with 39 tackles, followed by senior Ian Swenson (6'2", 215) with 25. The Huskies have decent size up front but the leading tacklers for loss are three guys with 2 TFLs each. I'm not expecting a dominant performance because Michigan hasn't necessarily blown the first two teams off the ball, but the Wolverines should win this battle.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. UCONN PASS DEFENSE
Michigan got a shot in the arm last week when J.J. McCarthy was named the starter. The team is #55 in passing offense (263 yards/game), and McCarthy has been nearly perfect (15/16 for 259 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). Ronnie Bell (7 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD) leads the team in receptions, but Roman Wilson (3 catches, 107 yards, 2 TD) has the most yards. Sixteen players have caught passes through two games. Michigan is tied for #49 in sacks allowed with 1.5 per game. Connecticut is #91 in pass defense (253 yards allowed/game) and #112 in passer rating defense. They've allowed 8.7 yards/attempt and 6 passing touchdowns with just 1 touchdown, which came via senior linebacker Brandon Bouyer-Randle (6'3", 240). The Huskies are #15 in the country in sacks, led by Mitchell with 1.5. Against the two FBS opponents UConn has faced, though, they've allowed 71.9% completions, 10.1 yards/attempt, and all 6 touchdowns. Michigan should be able to throw the ball around if they want.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. UCONN RUSH OFFENSE
Despite playing two poor opponents, Michigan is #48 in rushing defense (111 yards allowed/game) and #42 in yards allowed per carry (3.13). Still, caveats apply. Hawaii's rushing numbers looked a lot better for the Wolverines before a 54-yard touchdown against Michigan's third-stringers. Otherwise, they had 31 carries for 86 yards. Inside linebackers Junior Colson (12) and Michael Barrett (8) lead the team in tackles, while defensive end Mike Morris leads with 3 tackles for loss. UConn is #34 in rushing offense (205 yards/game) and #39 in yards per carry (5.13). Freshman Nathan Carter (5'9", 196) has carried the ball 59 times for 384 yards (6.5 yards/carry) and 1 touchdown. UConn's offensive line averages just over 300 pounds. I like their guards okay, so let's focus on that. Yep. Guards.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. UCONN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #8 in passing defense (125 yards allowed/game). They've allowed 50.9% completions and 4.4 yards per attempt, the latter of which is #7 nationally. Cornerback Gemon Green got some PFF hype this past week for having the second most coverage snaps in Power Five without allowing a reception so far. And D.J. Turner II at the other corner is more talented. On the front end, Michigan is #12 in sacks with 8 so far, led by . . . six guys with 1 each. Connecticut is #63 in sacks allowed at 1.3 per game. Connecticut is #123 in passing offense (132 yards/game), #120 in yards per attempt (5.4), and #112 in passing efficiency. True freshman Zion Turner (6'0", 198) will get the start after Penn State transfer QB Taquan Roberson tore his ACL after two pass attempts in week one. Turner is completing 57.1% of his throws for 373 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The leading receiver is sophomore Aaron Turner (5'8", 177) with 11 catches for 161 yards and 1 touchdown. There's not much danger here for Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Former Michigan lineman Jack Stewart is a backup OL for the Huskies and former P George Caratan is the punter, averaging 41.3 yards on 14 attempts
- UConn players from the state of Michigan include: Battle Creek LB Brandon Bouyer-Randle
- UConn backup QB Cale Millen is the brother of Colorado State starting QB Clay Millen
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On September 22, 2013, Michigan beat UConn 24-21
- UConn held a 21-7 lead in the third quarter but allowed 17 unanswered points
- K Brendan Gibbons kicked the go-ahead field goal with 4:36 remaining in the game
- RB Fitzgerald Toussaint ran 24 times for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns
- LB Desmond Morgan notched a key interception and returned it 29 yards
- QB Devin Gardner went 11/23 for 97 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INT
- Michigan is now 2-0 against UConn with victories in 2010 and 2013
PREDICTION
- Michigan 45, UConn 9
Celebrate the shutout ... no injuries
ReplyDeleteOnward
I was impressed they let Moody try that 60 yarder. He was short but it was on target to split the uprights. I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteWilson and Bell are getting utilized well -- the dangerous playmaker and the reliable go-to, respectively. Good sign.
Henning playing RB is a first as far as I know. Edwards' backup if he misses more time. When he's on the field the defense better be paying attention.
Stokes is fine but didn't wow. Whatever, all RBs are good. He's next.
A lot of wasted breath on the goal-line back situation. It's RB1 as usual (since we got rid of FBs).
OTs have to be classified as disappointing given the level of competition. Nitpicking - We'll see if it means anything.
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On D it's a shrug. Didn't see much heat generated by the backup DEs this time. Starters are better but that's not news.
Mullings looked fairly comfortable but not exactly flying around.
Sainristil continues to look very good with excellent awareness. I continue to be surprised and impressed with how he flipped sides of the ball. Maryland will be a good test for him.
Losing Cade is a bummer. I thought he might be useful at Iowa if JJ is rattled at all. I suppose a series from Orji could have the same calming effect if needed. Last week I joked about a new QB controversy and I guess we sorta have one. I don't think anyone can confidently say who would get most snaps if JJ were to get hurt.
I'll agree with JE's point though - if you told me on 9/1 that the only notable injury through 3 games is a backup QB I would take it. (I'm assuming the Edwards injury isn't serious and the OL will be back to full strength next week).
my son & I loved the FG attempt. He's probably made that distance in practice, and we were up so much it was no loss on our end
DeleteMy gripes are Trent Jones getting beat so easily, and I think we could use our TEs more ... that later point may be coming soon
That's impressive. Using TE enough is the very last of my worries on a harbaugh team.
DeleteHonestly, JJ McCarthy doesn't look as good all the raving about him. He missed some wide open throws. I don't think he looks over the field as much as McNamara does. But yes, he is more exciting. And his running capacity adds more possibilities in play calling.
ReplyDeleteAnd to make clear, what I mean by missed wide open throws, is, not that he threw bad passes at wide open players. It's that, he didn't see them, and throw to them.
Delete"I don't think he looks over the field as much as McNamara does."
DeleteThat's an interesting criticism of McCarthy. What I'm reading indicates the opposite: that McCarthy sees the field better, and is capable of making throws not possible for McNamara. Now it might be said that McCarthy makes throws he perhaps should not, but given the three games so far this season, that might be a tough sell.
Iowa should be more informative.
DeleteAgree. Iowa may suck, but they maintain the ability to drag us into a mud fight
DeleteIowa doesn't suck - Iowa's offense sucks.
DeleteTheir defense is elite and will likely be the best we face all year. A HUGE test for JJ and the offense. The difference between the defenses we faced in games 1-4 to this will be massive. There might be an adjustment period to weather early. Hopefully more for them than us.
Our O vs their D is the big headline matchup and big unknown. Strength vs strength. Neither team can say they are prepared for what is about to come.
On the other side of the ball it's a different story. This is a blowout on paper. Their O sucks and our D looks quite good. But we ain't played nobody. And the offenses we will have faced have been mostly air raid. Meanwhile, Iowa has the benefit of having faced another very good defense defense in Iowa State and a decent one in Rutgers. They should be fairly prepared when they see our defense.
I think the Iowa O has a situational advantage given who they've faced and being at home. Does it matter given how woeful they have been? Probably not but maybe enough to score a handful of times.
I do think Iowa will work through some of the glaring offensive issues. All the jokes go here, but Papa Ferentz isn't a dummy.
It's a much tougher spot than I think most of our fanbase is expecting right now. I'm still nervous about it, even with our O looking so strong and Iowa's averaging less than 14 ppg.
Of course we'll learn a bit more on Saturday. If Rutgers beats Iowa I'll discard this take real quick. For now -- Their D looks like the truth, our O hasn't been challenged, and I've seen this script before....usually against MSU.
"What I'm reading indicates the opposite: that McCarthy sees the field better"
DeleteThe people you're reading must be on the JJ McCarthy hype train.
Michigan seems to be a very good team this year. I don't get the sense they're in the same conversation with Georgia and Alabama, and probably not Ohio State, but we'll see about that. Better than MSU and Penn State, though that latter game will be a real test.
ReplyDeleteThis take was backed by the computer numbers I saw last week that had us at #4. But just as close to #16 Tenn as #1 Georgia in terms of strength. Huge grain of salt on that this early in the year though.
DeleteWe can only get so much from eating 3 cupcakes.