RUSH OFFENSE vs. BGSU RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #75 overall in rushing (150.5 yards/game) and #53 in yards per carry (4.7) despite not having allowed a single sack this season. Blake Corum's numbers are adequate (25 carries, 153 yards, 4 TD), but backup Donovan Edwards has been surprisingly ineffective (18 carries, 46 yards). Mike Hart said last week that neither player had been tackled during fall camp, so it appears to be taking some time for them to get back in sync with their blocking. The offensive line starters appear to be set with Karsen Barnhart and Myles Hinton winning the left and right tackle jobs, respectively. Bowling Green is #102 in rushing defense (160.5 yards allowed/game) and #98 in yards allowed per carry (4.28). They held down FCS Eastern Illinois last week, but Liberty had 246 yards on the ground at over 5.0 yards per attempt. The leading tackler for the Falcons is sophomore weakside linebacker Joseph Shipp (6'0", 220) with 20 stops, followed by sophomore cornerback Jalen Huskey (6'0", 185) with 15. Both of BGSU's inside linebackers are 220-225 pounds, and they start a 285 lb. nose tackle in senior Anthony Hawkins, so they're a little undersized up the middle.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. BGSU PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are tied for #31 in passing offense (296.5 yards/game) with quarterback J.J. McCarthy having an outstanding season so far. He has completed 87.3% of his passes (#1 nationally) and his passer rating is #4 in the country. Meanwhile, Roman Wilson is tied for #2 in the country with 5 receiving touchdowns this season, and as mentioned above, the team has yet to allow a sack. Cornelius Johnson has also been productive catching the ball, but we have yet to see a true #3 wide receiver emerge. Running back Donovan Edwards is #3 in receptions with 9, though they have gone for just 59 yards so far. BGSU is #53 in pass defense (196.5 yards allowed/game) and #99 in passer rating defense. They're #18 in sacks (7.0), but 5 of those came against last week's FCS opponent. Huskey has the team's lone interception.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. BGSU RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #26 in rush defense (82 yards allowed/game) and #39 in yards allowed per carry (2.88). Last week UNLV's Go-Go Offense managed just 61 yards on 31 carries. Inside linebackers Michael Barrett, Junior Colson, and Ernest Hausmann each hold a share of the team lead with 9 tackles. Nose tackle Kenneth Grant and Colson are 1-2 in tackles for loss with 2.5 and 2.0, respectively. Grant has been a monster on the inside and has probably flashed more than anyone else on the defensive line, but nose tackle Mason Graham (8 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks) has also been trouble. Bowling Green is #63 in rushing offense (166 yards/game) and #36 in yards per carry (5.11). Sophomore Terion Stewart (5'9", 225) leads the team with 17 carries for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns, while junior Ta'ron Keith (5'10", 190) is a speedster who hasn't touched the ball much. Junior Jaison Patterson (6'0", 215) has 13 carries for 52 yards despite not showing much so far this year. BGSU's offensive line has decent size in the middle, but the tackles are 6'6" and 6'7" but 290-295 pounds, which is rather light for their height. They like to use 11 and 12 personnel regularly, which would seem to play into Michigan's strengths of having a big and athletic defensive front.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. BGSU PASS OFFENSE
Michigan got top cornerback Will Johnson back for a series last week after an off-season injury, so hopefully that means he's working up to a bigger workload for this week and beyond. Second corner Josh Wallace and fifth year senior Keshaun Harris have held up fine at cornerback, but they're not Will Johnson. Michigan is still #23 in passing defense (150 yards allowed/game) and #22 in passing efficiency defense. They are one of nine teams that has yet to allow a passing touchdown. They're #56 in sacks (5.0 so far), led by Grant and Jaylen Harrell with 1.5 quarterback takedowns each. BGSU is #56 in passing (252.5 yards/game) but #86 in passing efficiency. The quarterback is former Missouri and Indiana signal caller Connor Bazelak (6'3", 225), a fifth year senior who has completed 59.2% of his throws for 390 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. His numbers against Liberty were atrocious (6/21, 3.4 YPA, 0 TD, 3 INT), and he threw those interceptions on three straight attempts. Yikes. He recovered against Eastern Illinois, but . . . the competition is the question. Last year when playing for Indiana, Bazelak completed 25/49 passes against Michigan for 4.1 yards/attempt, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The leading receiver is 6'4", 230 lb. sophomore tight end Harold Fannin, Jr. with 9 catches for 138 yards and 1 score. Last week running back Ta'ron Keith caught 6 passes for 123 yards, but wideout Odieu Hiliaire (6'0", 185) has 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 scores, and seems to be the top outside guy. We may see a little bit of backup quarterback Camden Orth (6'3", 225), who's 7/12 for 115 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions; he's more of a runner with 9 attempts for 25 yards so far this year.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- BGSU coaching staff includes former Michigan QB/coach Scott Loeffler (BGSU head coach), former Michigan linebacker/assistant coach Steve Morrison (BGSU defensive coordinator), former Michigan wide receiver/assistant coach Erik Campbell (BGSU wide receivers coach), and former Michigan S&C coach Kevin Tolbert (BGSU S&C coach)
- Former Michigan commit Davonte Miles plays defensive tackle for the Falcons
- BGSU players from the State of Michigan include: WR Finn Hogan (Maple City Glen Lake), WR Jalen Holly (River Rouge), LB Brock Horne (Romeo), DT Davonte Miles (River Rouge), LB James Miller (Gaylord), DL Jordan Porter (Muskegon), DL Billie Roberts (Muskegon), DL Ali Saad (Dearborn)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On September 25, 2010, Michigan beat BGSU by a score of 65-21
- QB Denard Robinson had just 9 combined rushes and passing attempts, but he was 4/4 passing for 60 yards and ran 5 times for 129 yards and 2 scores. Robinson had two 47-yard rushes, including one for a touchdown
- WR Roy Roundtree caught 9 passes for 118 yards
- Backup quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Devin Gardner combined to go 19/22 for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, with 10 carries for 55 yards and 1 touchdown
- S Ray Vinopal and LB Jonas Mouton each notched an interception
- Bowling Green K/P Bryan Wright, a transfer from Michigan, made all 3 of his extra point attempts and punted 5 times for 237 yards against his old team
PREDICTION
- Michigan 44, Bowling Green 10
I am very ready to play a real team. I know some folks like to see us dominate lesser opponents but I'd much rather be getting meaningful data on our guys, putting them up to a stiffer test as prep for OSU/PSU, and general entertainment value. Looking forward to Texas next year.
ReplyDeleteTo paraphrase what Mitch Headberg said about pancakes - - the first non-conference game was good but now I'm sick of them.*
*I will still watch all 4 quarters just like I will eat the last pancake on my plate.
I don't think they will score twice, but 40ish to 3 (or 7) sounds about right
ReplyDeleteI wish we could have played a P5 this year, and had the cupcake schedule next year, when we expect to lose a lot of what could be B1G three times champs
Just look at that dime Denard delivered to Roundtree. What a QB!!! Generational runner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI was so happy running out of the shotgun.
But then ... fools happened.
Sigh!
Roanman
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness,
Deletethat team won the sugar bowl, the only major bowl win in 23 years.
DeleteDo you miss Cade yet? LOL
DeleteAnon, we won the sugar bowl the year after. 2010 led to the Gator Bowl whooping by the MissSt cowbells. I drove from New Orleans, and the entire way back their fans rang bells out their windows
DeleteI actually rooted for Mississippi State once it was clear the team didn't care they were being embarrassed on national TV. They were laughing on the sideline as MSU man-handled them. I wanted them beaten badly so Rodriguez would be fired.
DeleteTo this day, the 2010 defense being absolutely horrendous (~90th in the country) casts a long shadow over how entertaining and fun that offense was.
DeleteAnd I know people will bring up the offensive struggles against MSU and OSU and turnovers and all that but A) that's still 10-2 if a passable defense gets you over the hump against the other teams (Michigan lost games they scored 28, 28, and 31 in) and B) Ohio State was the top defense in the country that year and we saw how that went for us against Georgia even with much better talent on offense.
If 10-2 happens instead of 7-5 the narrative about Rich Rod and Denard is very different. Rich Rod deserves every ounce of heat he gets for the defense since it's his job, but Denard does not. Harbaugh's offense still to this day hasn't produced as many points or yards as the 2010 offense produced (though again, a hat tip to the defense to help out with plenty of opportunities LOL) and only in the last 2 seasons has the efficiency and effectiveness been surpassed.
It was the best of times for offense and the worst of times for defense. Off the field there certainly was a lot of foolishness.
For that Gator Bowl:
Delete- Denard rushed 11 times for 59 yards
- The team rushed 25 times for 88 yards
- The team achieved only 2 of 10 3rd down conversions
- The team achieved 0 of 5 4th down conversions
- Denard threw 41 times for 27 completions and 254 yards
In other words, Mississippi State dared Michigan to beat them in the air, and they couldn't. Further, MSU had Denard figured out: stay disciplined and box him in, and he was trapped. He wasn't that good and eluding disciplined tacklers when he didn't have a running start. 14 points scored, all in the 1st quarter, then absolutely nothing.
People can talk all they want about how Rodriguez was a "genius" offensive mind, but time has shown him to be a relatively short flash in the pan. Denard was a great person, but only a good but not great QB.
The RR offense was annoying because he hung his hat on that side of the ball, but it was very limited. Even against purdont that year, they were figured out. Wisconsin crushed us, only allowing us to move the ball once the game was embarrassingly out of hand
DeleteThat team was a Denard Robinson video game. Box him in, and the game was over
No one is going to change their mind about RR at this point. I would classify him as a visionary not a genius. Denard is the one who I think still gets underrated by a traditionalist chunk of the fanbase, primarily because of RR's failing and specifically with regard to the defense. Ws and Ls are what count but ultimately offense and defense are mostly independent events.
DeleteMichigan caught RR after he was on the cutting edge of offensive innovation; already by that point his stuff was entering into the state of practice (i.e., standard). We saw how bad it could be in 2008 and 2009, but Denard was a special player. The OL getting fixed by RR/McGee/Fry was the biggest thing that changed the offense from 2008 to 2010, but Denard was second.
But let's also remember that the 2010 offense was still in it's infancy. The OL was still a mix of Carr vets and up and coming young Frey guys, (Lewan and Schofield were RS freshman). Not what it would be in 2011. Ditto for Denard, who should have been a RS Freshman that season, battling with Forcier in a manner similar to how JJ McCarthy had to battle with McNamara at the start of 2022. And the skill position talent was exceptionally mediocre by Michigan football standards. Hemingway and Fitz were legit players but most of the other guys were role player types like Martevious Odoms or purported talents who never produced. And this for a system that wants to be 4-wide.
Some people act like this was the culmination of Rodriguez's vision but it was just the start. And we still got one of the better offenses this program saw over a 20 year span.
The 2011 team was setup to return everyone and to this day it remains a tragedy that we never got to see the RR Michigan offense fully formed, IMO. But he absolutely deserved to be fired and RR has never once made Michigan look like it made a mistake when it did so. The defense was THAT bad.
IMO, paired with a high end DC and leadership from above, he could have had success similar at Michigan as Urban Meyer had at OSU. But Meyer is a better program manager, more pragmatic, and more evil.
As for that Miss St game -- Rodriguez was a dead man walking. He knew it, the team knew it, and they had a month to dwell on that after the OSU whoopin. Once they got punched in the mouth they didn't have any fight left. I think people always overrate bowl game outcomes because that taste stays in your mouth for 8 or 9 months, but it's not always very indicative of the season. This is true for feel good wins (like Florida in 2008 Citrus) and it's true for feel bad loses (like Florida in the 2017 Peach).
I agree that the 2010 offense didn't have a response when Denard got boxed in. I tend to think it could have gotten there once Denard wasn't so young and inexperienced and once the talent level at WR was better. The OL was still learning too - they probably spent a whole lot of time on the base offense and not the extra stuff they needed to do to respond.
DeleteOne of RR's biggest mistakes was thinking he could do a comprehensive reboot. Our fanbase was not here for a 4-year rebuild project. And again, the defense could have changed the narrative for us to FEEL the upward trajectory the offense was on, but instead the defensive side was self-destructing and the FEELing was that this thing just wasn't what it was supposed to be and it was time to end it.
Which it was.
Lets also remember how bad the kicking was that year. LOL. They made 4 FGs...in the entire season!
DeleteThat team probably set a record for turnover on downs simply because they had no will to watch their FG unit fail once again.
Denard threw the ball like an option quarterback. If he had been under center running the Veer, people would have a better grasp on him. He's Tommy Frazier or Eric Crouch or someone like that. Put that guy in a Nebraska uniform in the mid-1990s, and people would be like, "Wow, he was really fun to watch! Couldn't throw a lick and had to change positions to play at the next level, but he could run!"
DeleteI'm sure Nebraska looks back at those days fondly - especially because they won a lot of games - but nobody is like, "Oh, Eric Crouch is underrated as a quarterback." He was what he was: a running back who had deft enough hand-eye coordination to pitch the ball with great success.
Agree. Loved DRob - one of my all time favorites - but he was not a very good quarterback, and fairly simple to game plan against (see purdont & their roster)
DeleteNobody criticizes crouch or says he wasn't a good qb, because those teams won big. Almost like a QB doesn't have to only throw to win big...
DeleteCrouch was a QB not a RB. Besides winning the Heisman as a QB, he also won the Davey Obrien as the best QB in the country. He also played QB as a pro in the the CFL. He wasn't an NFL-caliber QB but you can say that about a host of pocket passers too.
DeleteWhen Crouch switched positions for the NFL it was not to play RB. He is not a RB in any way. He almost certainly would have struggled trying to play it beyond college. Helluva an athlete though obviously, for NFL teams to be interested in him as a WR/DB.
Denard was a VASTLY superior passer than Crouch. I can go throught he stats if you like but every one of them will be in Denard's favor. And he's a better RB too. The difference is that Crouch was on a much better team, a stable perennial national title contender.
Denard was also playing at the same time as Newton and Luck, while Crouch's competition for national awards was Rex Grossman and Joey Harrington. That'll help you win a Heisman. Denard could have transferred to a lot of better places after 2010 but ultimately sacrificed for Michigan instead. He should have red-shirted in 2009 and he should have transferred before 2011. But he was a helluva QB anyway. Underrated! (by some)
Tom Brady - He was what he was: an insurance salesman who had deft enough hand-eye coordination to throw the ball with great success.
DeleteOf course Denard had (some) better passing numbers. He played 10 years later in an offense that was more designed around the passing game. And yet Denard Robinson threw INTs on 5.2% of his passes, and Crouch threw INTs on 4.1% of his throws. So not all things were better... Denard was kind of a turnover machine.
DeleteYou are right that they were different systems and different contexts but that cuts both ways - Denard threw downfield more in part because of the offense spent half of 2010 playing from behind. Certainly he was exposed to more risky opportunities on offense. He was also responsible for 67% of Michigan's offensive yards in 2010. Crouch was responsible for 49% of Nebraska's.
DeleteThe offensive production between the two teams was not far off.
489 yards per game vs 451 yards per game.
6.8 yards per play vs 6.2 yards per play.
But the defenses were night and day
451 yards per game vs 288 yards per game given up
6.1 yards per play vs 4.2 yards per play given up
BTW the offenses rushed for the same YPC. 5.6 ypc vs 5.6 ypc.
Crouch proves you don't have to be an NFL-type of passer to be a great QB who can lead his team to a championship. Denard was a better player on inferior teams.
Denard is one of the best college QBs of our lifetimes. His freshman year was a wasted opportunity to get a red-shirt in a program desperate for excitement and hope. His true sophomore year was amazing but still just a hint of what he could have become if he been developed more patiently in stable environment with an offense that suited his skills. His junior year show'd he could win big (11 wins) if paired with a functional defense, even if handicapped by poor offensive coaching. His senior year show'd his toughness, resilience, and versatility...and also his relatively unimpressive performance as a RB as compared to his exceptional impact at QB.
"He played 10 years later in an offense that was more designed around the passing game"
DeleteHe was recruited to play in an offense more designed around the passing game because... he was a better passer. Not like there weren't more passing-friendly offenses around back in 2010 for Crouch to play in if he had that skill.
The best QB in the country in 2001 was not as good of a passer as Denard Robinson. He was on a much better team though.
Can't believe we have not seen more competition for the tackle positions. Feel a little bad for Henderson, he was supposed to be a high draft pick and he is playing behind two average tackles (at the moment).
ReplyDeleteHenson's highlights. JJ looks just like him
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQcTo-cefm4
I think they take it easy on a team coached by friend-of-the-Harbaughs and expect a score very similar to last week. With the way our defense is playing and the new clock rules, the under seems like a good bet in this one.
ReplyDeleteUM left 21 easy points on field.
ReplyDeleteI was so excited to be back in the Big House, but good Lord that game dragged on. As bad as the turnovers were, the stoppage of play really took the excitement out of it. The team did not looked very fired up on the sidelines, and I can't say I blame them... too many cupcakes! Of course, when we're resetting our lineup next year and could use a break, we will have a stacked schedule
DeleteA night game against a team like Bowling Green didn't help. We'll never know, but I'd guess that if that was a noon game, the players would have been more up for it, and would have dominated to a greater degree. There's something about waiting all day long that can sap the energy. Waiting all day for Penn State or Michigan State is one thing; waiting all day for ... Bowling Green ... is another.
DeleteUltimately it does not matter. This was still a dominant win, even if it was a sloppy one that wasn't very fun. I think everyone; fans and players alike were relatively ho-hum about 3 straight cupcakes at home. The season starts Saturday.
DeleteThat was some O korn level of play out there from JJ. The Moore coaching debut less a lot to be desired. Edwards should make the decision if he really wants to play football, because it looks like he wants to be somewhere else. If that is case, we should accommodate him.
ReplyDeleteI'm not putting much - good or bad - on any of these "head coaches." It's not like they have any effect on the true direction of the program. I actually thought that was some of the more imaginative play calling of the season so far, for what that's worth. I'm sure Edwards is getting frustrated as his lack of success.
DeleteI bet he is too. I get that - since FR year - they have to incorporate him to Base offense or else the gadget stuff won't work. But he's not Corum, Haskins or even charbonet ... while Edwards balance & strength have improved, dude is still a HR guy, not the grinder
DeleteHe should be the best athlete on the field, and look/perform like it. Definitely not looking like a Barry Sanders / Walter Payton right now
Definitely disagree with every criticism here. Just because Harbaugh isn't there on gameday doesn't mean that he doesn't have substantial guidance/direction on the game plan. This is still HIS team.
DeleteJJ's mistake are similar to some stuff we saw vs TCU - being a improvising playmaker doesn't come without risk.
Still waiting for someone to share data that Edwards production is substantially different distribution than Corum/Haskins to back up this narrative about him as a boom/bust back. Corum was very boom bust the last time he played against a legit defense (Illinois).
Part of this is because I'm old enough to remember people saying Corum wasn't a grinder like Haskins not much more than a year ago.
There was a thread right before the season, when even you talked about the giant holes the OL opened up for Edwards
DeleteThere was the article where Edwards himself wanted to improve his "shake," his ability to make defenders miss like Corum did to the Iowa LB (and many others. He's definitely not breaking tackles like HH (or even Corum)
As for data, pick an individual stats website, it's there
@ Lank 3:41 p.m.
DeleteLOL at your continuing fascination with going back to the Illinois game for Corum. It's amazing to me that you take a decent game from Corum (18 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD in less than two full quarters) and try to use it as evidence that he and Edwards are the same type of back. Or something. I'm not quite sure what your point is. Edwards has 27 carries for 96 yards and 0 touchdowns this season. That's 9 more carries, 12 fewer yards, and 1 fewer touchdown than the one game you lean on to point out how Corum isn't anything special or something.
Corum is averaging 6.9 YPC this year.
Edwards is averaging 3.6 YPC this year.
@Thunder
DeleteOh it's back to the YPC is it? Well it's been a quiet couple years on that front. What did Corum and Edwards average last year? What about 2021 when Hassan Haskins had the lowest YPC of all the backs?
@JE
Link please.
Ill clarify since there may be confusion. The narrative here is that corum is like Haskins, a steady Eddy tackle breaker who gains 5-10 yards a pop via toughness. Meanwhile Edwards is like corum used to be, a speedster homerun threat not a between the tackles runner, but a boom bust guy that may only get 2 yards or may get 70. Thunder and lightning may produce the same totals but they do it differently.
DeleteThe average won't tell you anything about that. The distribution would. Id like to see that data. To see if the theory holds up.
Now you're arguing against a narrative that NOBODY has made
DeleteClassic Lank
"he's not Corum, Haskins or even charbonet ... while Edwards balance & strength have improved, dude is still a HR guy, not the grinder". I'm old enough to remember when corum wasn't considered a grinder and Haskins was.
DeleteCorum is hitting more home runs than Edwards this year btw. Edwards is grinding along.
@ Lank 11:37 p.m.
DeleteI'm not going to get too far into the YPC argument again, except to say that when your running game sucks, maybe you should try someone who's, you know, producing more. When you have the best running game in the league...ummm...yeah, there's not much to change.
@ Lank 12:25 a.m.
Interestingly, Zach Shaw from 247 just shared some data on a podcast yesterday about the distribution. He said he had expressed the same concern in the off-season. Donovan Edwards apparently had 12 carries last year that went for 526 yards, and he averaged 3.2 YPC on the rest of his attempts. In other words...boom or bust.
Now I realize you can't make that argument without the same data for Corum, but I'm 99% sure if you took away a commensurate number of Corum's biggest plays, he would be averaging more than 3.2 YPC.
I'm saying I'd like to see the data for Corum to be able to make a comparison. Maybe the data backs up the theory. Or maybe they are equally boom bust. I am 100% sure I am not 99% sure like you are.
DeleteI don't know the answer! I haven't run the numbers. But my speculation based on games and stats it is very very close if we look at things like success rate (which is context dependant) and if we bin % of carries into 4 bins (something like 3 yards or less, 4-7, 7-20, and 20+) you'd see very similar distribution for both backs.
There's a lot of ways to slice these numbers of course but I don't think that the narrative will hold up as convincing. Just like the "we struggle in the red zone" narrative didn't hold up in 2021, or again in 2022. My theory is that this is feelingsball.
Shaw's analysis doesn't count as compelling because EVERY RB has unimpressive YPC when you take out the long runs. That's just math, and it's why YPC is a limited indicator of effectiveness (something I've argued going back to Vincent Smith and Deveon Smith).
I know that career YPC for Corum is 6.0 and for Edwards its 6.2 which points to not all that different. I know that Corum and Edwards both break a lot of long runs for big yards. So it seems like onus here is on the theory to be backed up with data (for both).
Corum is the better RB - I said this in the preseason when people were saying Edwards was going to get 1000 yards (he's on pace for far less than that right now, though I imagine that will get better). But Edwards stepped in and produced comparable results when Corum went down (which people didn't expect). He would again if it comes to that, IMO.
Yes, I don't like removing the longest runs, but 12 carries for 526 yards equals an average of 43.8 yards on those 12 carries. There aren't many running backs who have that many long carries to equal that average. He only had 140 carries altogether in 2022, so that's almost 10% of his carries going for 43 yards.
DeleteBrandon Minor was a pretty good running back. Out of 331 career carries, he only had 3 career rushes for 43+ yards. De'Veon Smith had 495 career attempts, and he only had 2 career rushes for 43+ yards.
Edwards had 4 rushes of 43+ yards in the final three games of 2022 (70 carries).
Again, I get that Edwards needs carries up the middle, like the ONE he got against ohio in 2021. This is needed to not tip our play, I get that ...
DeleteBut he is NOT a Harball plug & play RB. Corum out there punishing defenders, while Edwards gets nothing. Gotta get creative, and let his special talent show out, thereby increasing his draft stock (and making our offense more appealing to athlete HS & portal recruits)
@Thunder. Those long runs are accounted for in Edwards having a higher YPC. What they don't tell us if on the other 90+% of carries there is a meaningful difference.
Delete@JE. I guess you'll have to specify what you mean by Harball but I think Edwards is exactly the kind of back Harbaugh likes to have in his offense. He was plug and play last year on a playoff team for Corum, who was plug and play replacing Haskins the year before. I don't think the 3 pound difference between Edwards and Corum is inflicting much different punishment on defenders. Edwards admired Corum's jukes in space - not his physicality. I do agree that we are wise to maximize his varied skillset, and that there is a potential recruiting payoff if it's done well.
I think we can't forget that it's Harbaugh who is recruiting 190 pound recruits time and time again like Cabana, Edwards, Corum, Turner, Samuels, and Evans. While he's ALSO recruited some bigger and thus presumably more physical backs (Charbonnet, Kingston Davis, Hall) plus notably flipping some big LBs to RB, the little speedy finesse backs seem to get a whole lot more carries than the big beefy strong ones. That's my definition of a Harball RB - a smaller back who can run, block, and catch.
Um, what do you mean by plug & play? He never got more than 3 carries in conference play against a ranked team, right?
DeleteI'd have to got through ea carry, but against ohio it was something like 2.xxypc before the half and then BOOM, the suckeyes got paved by the OL and Edwards was not going to be caught ... twice (unlike Stokes, who 'tripped over grass'😉)
There's nothing wrong with that, and I think he could benefit from his skill at the pro level, where "RBs don't matter," but explosive athletes do
I mean that you could plug in Edwards to start for Corum and not notice a difference in results. That's what we saw.
DeleteOSU famously, notoriously, stacked the box against UM in '22. They got burned on deep play after deep play. Even without Corum, OSU was selling out to stop the run and they paid the price. It wasn't just Edwards, but Loveland and Johnson who blew them up.
Glad you agree that RBs don't matter in the NFL. Getting closer.
But we can see a difference. The next time Edwards puts a juke on a quality defender like Corum will be the first. The next time Edwards moves a pile like Corum, Haskins or even Mullings, it will be a first
DeleteIt's just not his game. Scheme him into open space, and the guy is a modern star. Play Harball, and we have to hope ohio is defending the pass or the OL paved a large hole
*I was half being facetious & half playing to your ego on that comment, anticipating your frustration with the 2021 "plug & play" comment
I disagree about the style points but even if I didn't it's style points. What matters is results.
DeleteI wonder who your quintessential Harball style back is -- Deveon Smith?
BTW - Mullings doesn't move piles unless you count the get-this-over-with final drive where Rutgers gave up. We haven't seen it.
Haskins? Charbonet? But Blake Corum is the extra special version: speedy guy who developed into a do it all
DeleteBut Mullings did move the pile, right?
https://twitter.com/BBsBigHouse1/status/1706291247613100521?t=GBSwYffJ3U_438_JYtYWIQ&s=19
DeleteI remember when the o was struggling in red zone and short yardage with Haskins, until it wasn't. I also remember when corum couldn't move piles like Haskins, until he could. Smith was the best tackle breaker and pile mover we had in harbaugh era imo. We agree that corum can do it all
DeleteNot sure how that tweet relates. I know Edwards will be fine, and think he is now - as a gadget guy. As a RB, we have work to do with regard to settling our starting five OL and improving our blocking on the perimeter ...
DeleteThe O was struggling in the RedZone. Five straight dives up the middle against Rutgers is an example (we did it again this year against ECU). As soon as the play calling adjusted & improved, the struggles went away
Corum wasn't as much a grinder as a FR. That's okay. He worked on it, and improved. He may even be out best RB, ever. Edwards is in year3. He went from "tripping over grass" as a FR to breaking arm tackles as a SO. Hopefully once the rust is off AND blocking improves, he will make some improvements as a JR. But his bread & butter is and will remain his elite athleticism
Edwards wasnt a gadget guy last year. When corum went out it was plug and play.
DeleteCorum beat out charbonnet as a freshman.
The quintessential backs you named was a guy not recruited for RB and a guy who ended 4th string in Harbaughs offense. Meanwhile the bitty backs are getting recruited over and over.
But he wasn't plug & play. He was HR or stuffed. We became a much more balanced offense after Corum was injured
DeleteWho says he beat out charbonet? The offense rotated RBs. Haskins got the most carries & yards, but charbonet was right behind him, despite missing the PennSt game
What bitty backs? This should be interesting, esp since you considered Edwards 3 ATT per game in 2021 "plug & play"
Was his stuff rate more than corums? Back it up.
DeleteProduction against OSU, TCU, Purdue was what has people asserting Edwards is a top 5 back nationally. You're focused on your opinion and style points. Results are what matters.
Bitty backs referenced above. Harbaugh recruits them again and again. Harball is not what you think it is.
Charbonnet feel down the depth chart and transfered when he knew his ceiling was third string. Quntissential as me lol.
Do you get off on making sh:t up?
DeleteCharbonet did not "feel" down the depth chart. He was not 4th string, nor was he 3rd. Against Wisconsin he led the team in rushing. Against Rutgers he was only behind Haskins. Did not play against PennSt. Finished the year second in yards, first in ypc, and second in ATT per game
You're lying, just as you did when you said Edwards was looking & play in 2021
I still have no idea who you're talking about "bitty" ... our top RB under Harbaugh has never been bitty. Corum is a tank, a wrecking ball. Haskins? Charbonet? Higdon? Just making sh:t up
"Smith was the best tackle breaker and pile mover in the Harbaugh era."
DeleteIs Smith your brother or just a cousin? LOL. We've spent the last few years watching Hassan Haskins break tackle after tackle and get drafted in the 4th round. We've seen Blake Corum make ridiculous cuts, step through tackles, and push piles enough to be a Heisman candidate in 2022. De'Veon Smith didn't get drafted, and instead of giving him the ball consistently on the goal line like they've done with Corum/Haskins, they moved Khalid Hill from TE to FB to score TDs on the goal line.
How have you been commenting so much while also napping since about 2020?
It's a funny situation I admit. I have long argued against analysis by YPC because it biased so heavily based on the infrequent big runs. I prefer the guys who are consistent in getting the extra yardage to the ones that rarely break big ones. I like the guys like Vincent Smith who excel at pass blocking and pass catching and I like the guys who break tackles and make people miss like Deveon Smith and Mike Hart, even if they don't break long runs. I don't trust homerun hitters going back to our arguments about Mike Shaw and Mike Cox and continuing on through Ty Isaac.
DeleteNow I'm in a position of defending a big play guy. LOL. Now some will say that's just because I like arguing (which is fine with me) but I think the point I'm trying to make here is that the style points are not as important as the end result. In other words, both type of backs are valuable - big play speed guys and the guys who can consistently get a few extra yards but will get caught from behind. You don't NEED one type or the other. Best case you've got a guy like Corum who can do both but you can adapt the playcalling to suit the skillsets and it's not remotely a problem.
So why do I say Smith is a better tackle breaker and pile mover than Corum and Haskins?
Corum is the best RB of the Harbaugh era. He can break tackles AND he can make big plays AND he can catch AND he can block. He can do everything well. If this was baseball he would hits home runs, triples, doubles, singles, and get walks and then steal bases too. But I am not sure he is a better tackle breaker than Smith or Haskins. I don't think he moves the pile any better either. He darts through it, bounces around it, or slithers off it.
I am not clear if Haskins or Smith are better RB between those 2 (non-Corum division). Haskins played behind a better OL and in a better offense and produced better. I think that's undeniable. Haskins also got drafted higher which can be explained very easily by one thing - 40 time. A 4.6 vs a 4.9 is a big difference. It has not exactly translated to a glorious NFL career yet, though I hope that changes.
Smith did ONE THING very well - break tackles using his strength. He was slow and (I don't agree, but people say it) he lacked vision. But for all those supposed limitations, Smith managed over 2K yards at Michigan at 4.5 yards per pop, while playing under multiple coaches and coordinators. Haskins numbers were slightly better but he was faster and he had (supposedly) better vision so they should. So why was the gap so small? Because Smith was an ELITE tackle breaker and Pile Mover. That's it. That's all he had. So he must have been pretty good at that one thing.
** I'll admit that Mason and Hill are probably better pile movers. That's literally the only thing they ever did LOL. At least Smith ran outside SOMETIMES. I would love to see Michigan have another mooseback type on the roster. It's a total waste to have your primary back doing that job. But it's also kind of a waste to have Mooseback on scholarship too so I guess there's your answer.
BTW - I'm a Haskins fans. He's still my son's favorite player and I bought him a 25 jersey.
@JE
DeleteLOL. You are fired up now. Thank you for censoring all your curse words from my sensitive eyes. Since I've never coached nor played any sport I would cower to hear such language. LOL
Yes you are right that Charbonnet led the team in rushing against Wisconsin. He had...3 carries that game. The game was over by the half but Charbonnet got ... 1 touch before that.
There was rotation among all 4 for most of the year but that evolved as the season went. By Wisconsin the first guy getting a carry was Corum and Charbonnet had 1 touch in the first half. For Rutgers it was Haskins getting the bulk of the work, and Evans ahead of Charbonnet in Snaps also. For the last game Charbonnet didn't even play.
Even with Evans off to the NFL Charbonnet knew where he stood in the pecking order and it was 3rd at best. He transferred due to lack of carries. Haskins and Corum did not.
-Lank
DeleteUh oh, posting from anonymous accounts ... bad takes, lies, meltdown?
DeleteAlmost as bad as a double post! Just out of control hysterics all around!
Delete"Edwards had 4 rushes of 43+ yards in the final three games of 2022 (70 carries)."
ReplyDeleteRemove the 5 longest runs from Edwards in '22 you get:
Donovan 5.1 ypc
Remove the 5 longest runs from Corum in '22 and you get:
Blake 5.3 ypc
That does not seem like a guy who is dependant on big plays to prop up his YPC because he is otherwise deficient to me.
Uhhhh...I'm not sure what you're trying to show, but this data doesn't really move the needle. It does, however, start to further reinforce the initial point about Edwards being more dependent on big plays. What about if you remove the 10 longest runs? Or the 15 longest runs?
DeleteWe already know when you remove the 12 longest runs, Edwards averaged 3.2 YPC. If Corum is still hanging out around 5.0 YPC or so after taking out an equivalent number of big plays, then there's your answer.
Again, I'm not going to go back and look at every run from Corum to do all the math. But the boom-or-bust reputation is there, and it's being reinforced in 2023. Edwards has zero long runs in 2023, so his YPC is alarmingly low.
It's a thing: cherry pick the data and dig in!
DeleteYeah...I'm really not sure what just happened. I gave the data for if you removed Edwards's 12 longest runs (which went for 526 yards), and suddenly that number got chopped down to 5 for both Corum/Edwards.
DeleteLOL. Compare apples to apples and see if there's a difference. We did this back with Ty Isaac Thunder and you rightfully said you can't tell a story if you just remove big plays from one guy. Now you do it yourself. So I found the same numbers for both and you don't like that. OK
DeleteThe RIGHT way to do this is to pull out the top 20% of longest runs for each. And actually to tell on the other end of things you'd want to bin out the short carries too. Get a statistical distribution so you can say Donvan does this X% of the time and Blake does this Y% of the time and compare.
I'd like to see the data.
What we already know - that your data showed - is that RBs YPC drops quickly when you remove the long runs. That's EVERYBODY.
So Donovan's numbers don't prove he is a boom bust back anymore than Hassan Haskins. Everybody is a boom bust back. That's how RB works - you don't run for 5 or 6 yards every play you run for 2 more often than you run for 70, but the 70 is what moves the needle on YPC.
Donovan didn't break a long one yet and the entire narrative would go poof if he had broken a single big run. He's one smart cut away from nobody saying peep, which is funny.
But here's the thing -- he hadn't done it last year either. Same guy. Same results. We all know how that turned out. We all know what Donovan did when he was given carries against OSU, Purdue, and TCU. He was GREAT. He is still GREAT. Same 1st round pick caliber running back he was last year.
People with the mindset that RB ability varies wildly from week to week think we should ride the hot hand game to game. People who understand random variance as a real world reality think we shouldn't flip out about small sample sizes.
Edwards is an excellent running back. Really!
Still waiting to see evidence he is more boom bust than other RBs and not just that his YPC drops when you cull the long gainers, just like every other RB.
Edwards will break a big one as soon as he is schemed into it, or gets a big enough hole
DeleteYear3, same story
@ Lank 11:45 a.m.
Delete"Edwards is an excellent running back. Really!"
You're arguing against air. Nobody - not je93 or me - has said that he sucks. Or that he's terrible. Or that he should be cut or traded or demoted or anything.
He's struggling. I'm not the only one to see it. Je93 said it. The MGoBlog guys have griped about it. Sam Webb has talked about it. His 3.3 YPC through four cupcake games shows it.
It's not even a hot take. It's just the only appropriate take. He's #38 in the Big Ten (out of 44 qualifying players) in yards per carry...and #39-#44 are all quarterbacks.
P.S. I'm not saying it's fair to only remove Edwards's long runs. I said above that it's not great data because I don't have the numbers for Corum. That information was mined by Zach Shaw at 247. What I'm saying is that the data seems to support the anecdotal conclusions that seemingly everyone has been reaching, which is that Edwards is more boom-bust than Corum.
DeleteThe MGoBlog UFR from the Rutgers game shows several poor cuts and a lack of vision from Edwards. The evidence is all over the place.
@Thunder
DeleteMgoblog Brian said Edwards is not a good running back right now.
I don't think his "struggles" are any different than last year. Wasn't worth discussing last year and isn't this year. The only difference is expectations because we SAW what he is capable of later. But the story was the same. He's a backup RB with limited number of carries who can step up whenever we need him to.
Donovan proved his doubters wrong last year and will again this year.
I am saying again I would like to see the data to back up the narrative. I am not going to deep dive into it but the bits I pulled out don't seem substantially different. Maybe it's true. Maybe it isn't. There are a lot of bad narratives out there. I'm skeptical of this one.
I'll put it very bluntly -- Mgoblog RB vision assessments are terrible. Edwards did not lose vision since last year. Edwards also didn't gain balance. These takes are straight up goofy. It's trying to rationalize a variance in outcomes that is explained more easily by...the inherent variance in outcomes, playcalling, OL blocking, etc.
@JE
"will break a big one as soon as he is schemed into it, or gets a big enough hole" goes for every RB
It's applies to MOST running backs. CJ Stokes tripped over grass. Corum, Haskins, even higdon broke tackles & created plays. Deveon Smith too
DeleteEdwards is elite, but he's an elite athlete. Expecting him to just bowling ball through a front7 is not only foolish & a waste of his talent, but compromises his future earnings
I think we've reached agree to disagree territory. Edwards breaks tackles and is a complete RB. He's an elite athlete with elite skills -- pretty good traits for a RB to have that by no means inhibit his strength, balance, toughness or anything else you want to attribute to lesser athletes.
DeleteCan you preserve him by not running him 30 yards between the tackles? Yes, just like Corum.
Can he break big plays and use his excellent speed to his advantage? Yes, just like Corum.
Will he go through streaks of plays where he isn't successful? Yes, just like Corum.
If you look at a guy like Haskins and a guy like Edwards - they seem like a sort of stylistic opposites in your eyes. I will agree that they are not identical. I will agree that they may have different strengths that may lend themselves better to some plays than others. I will not agree that it "matters" when it comes to aggregate outcomes on the field.
Edwards success rate in 22 was 45%.
Haskins success rate in 21 was 47%.
A negligible difference.
That's ignoring big runs (unlike YPA). That's taking into account context (success on 3rd and 10 is 10 yards, success on 3rd and 1 is 1 yards). That's primary backs who are asked to do ALL the things.
You don't get to 45% by not breaking tackles, by lacking balance, or by running outside exclusively.
People predicted doom when Corum went down last year because Edwards wouldn't be able to do the things that Corum did. Yet, Edwards replaced his production perfectly. Some (not me) even speculated he would surpass Edwards in '23. That's how well it worked out.
Now we're watching the Doubt Rerun. I don't buy it, because I just saw it proved incorrect. It's all based on a fantasy and an effort to rationalize something that isn't real.
@ Lank 11:12 a.m.
DeleteFor once, you're right...
...we've reached agree-to-disagree territory.
Players with a higher YPC than Donovan Edwards (3.4) today:
Blake Corum (4.6)
Tavi Dunlap (3.5)
Kalel Mullings (8.6)
Leon Franklin (4.3)
Jayden Denegal (5.0)
J.J. McCarthy (15.0)
Davis Warren (4.0)
Donovan Edwards did beat out Jack Tuttle (0.0 YPC today), so there's that. But yeah, please continue telling us that everything with Edwards seems fine five games into the season with a 3.3 YPC average.
"Let's agree to disagree" ... "also, let me rattle off more nonsense"
DeleteLOL. OK Thunder. Let's take YPC in one game very seriously. Clearly Mullings needs to get more carries and those should come at the expense of Blake Corum who is simply not breaking off enough long runs as his YPC continues to decrease each year.
DeleteHere's a simple question for you.
Do you think Donovan Edwards got worse in the offseason?
It is fine. Perfectly.
Delete@ Lank 11:35 a.m.
DeleteEvery week, you say the YPC for Edwards in that game is a small sample size or is being overstated. I showed you the data for the first four weeks. He was #38 in the Big Ten and LAST in the conference among running backs.
I'll admit that he nudged ahead of Rutgers running back Samuel Brown V and is now up to 3.34 YPC for the year, while Brown's 9 carries on Saturday finally put him in the category of being able to qualify (with 3.21 YPC). So Edwards is no longer the worst (statistically speaking) running back in the conference. But he is #33 out of qualifying players, and the eight below include Brown and then 7 quarterbacks.
Yes, I do actually think Edwards got worse in the off-season. I don't see the same vision, and I don't see the same chutzpah we saw from him at the end of last year. He's not patient through the hole, he's not seeing things, and he's not even really trying to be a physical runner. He looks tentative to me like he's not sure whether to be physical or run out of bounds...to take hits or deliver them. Last year he was trying to run over people like he was in high school, but it never really worked - he's not a pile pusher.
You saw that again on Saturday. Even on a couple of his better runs, he's basically falling down on contact rather than trying to run over tacklers, step through tackles, etc.
@Thunder
DeleteSo if he lost vision, chutzpah, and patience all in one offseason. Is it something he can get back?
In other words if in the next half dozen games he has a game like Purdue last year (25 for 185 and if you exclude his 2 longest 23 for 98) or even if he breaks a couple big plays and gets over 100 yards on say 10-15 carries, would he "back" to last year's performance that led you describe him as "an excellent back" and a guy whose patience you praised on long runs vs OSU.
I'm just wondering how easy it is to flip that switch, hypothetically.
It would seem to me chutzpah is pretty much a feeling and that would be easy enough to flip a switch on. Perhaps patience is an emotion as well, so maybe that one is like the weather. We're well into feelings ball and I'm no psychologist so I'll defer.
But vision? That's a more permanent thing - it doesn't just come and go. So I'm wondering if there is hope for Edwards in 2023 or if he's doomed to be RB3 because of poor vision, patience, inability to break tackles, and lack of chutzpah.
I think you already know what I think - Edwards didn't lose a thing and is better than ever. Yes, even nearly 50 carries into the season.
DeleteI didn't see him fall over on contact very much, I saw him fall forward and get extra yards while being tackled, numerous times. I saw him get clunked in the backfield too. I won't dispute the results - they are what they are in 2023 - I just don't think it's due to any change in him.
You can draw a pretty neat line between games where Edwards got 15 carries or more (5 times). In each of those games he broke runs for over 45 yards and had 100 yards. In the 6 games he didn't - he had one run over 20 yards (against Hawaii). He still put up a respectable 4.8 ypc (39 for 189) which is better than he's done this year but his long this year is 14. It just hasn't happened.
If you don't break long run over 15 or 20 yards your YPC is not going to look good. It's that simple. No one is disputing this but all the armchair psychoanalysis and optometry in the world won't change the fact that regardless of if you are Corum, Smith, Haskins, or Edwards those 15 or 20 yard plus carries are a small fraction of carries for all of them.
At halftime Blake and Donovan had nearly identical stats. They had 8 or 9 carries and indistinguishable YPC of 4 point whatever. Blake came back in the first series and carried the ball 7 times, broke a 15 yarder and voila - has himself a nice day. Game over and next series is Tuttle with Edwards. Edwards gets 6 carries, does NOT break any longer runs than a couple 6 yarders, and we kick a FG. Next drive is Franklin and Denegal hour.
Now we can read a lot into this but I don't. We can say that Blake left his chutzpah in the locker room and got it back at the half while Donovan's was still back in Ann Arbor or maybe still in Glendale, AZ. I'll go with the math though. Yes, sample size is still a thing I will stand on, even 47 carries into the season. Donovan hasn't broken any long runs yet and I'm 0% worried about that.
@ Lank 8:24 p.m.
DeleteYou say Corum had a 15-yarder and suddenly had a good game...
He had 16 carries for 74 yards. Take away the 15-yarder, and he had 15 carries for 59 yards, which is a smidgen under 4.0 YPC and still a half-yard better than Edwards.
I think it's certainly a POSSIBILITY that Edwards thinks/thought he could leave for the NFL after this year and is trying to avoid getting hurt. Or maybe it's been preached by the coaches that they want to save some of the tread on the running backs' tires, so Edwards is backing off a little bit thinking "I have to preserve myself so I'm healthy at the end of the year."
Or maybe he just doesn't have his timing back. Or maybe he thinks he can just do whatever he wants because he's a superior athlete.
I can GUARANTEE you that Mike Hart and the other coaches are sitting in meeting rooms pointing out where Edwards needs to be more patient. Why can I guarantee you that? Because some of the stuff he's doing wrong is stuff that we had/have to correct with high school running backs.
You're sitting here saying it's fine, but it's not fine. The coaches know it's not fine. I know it's not fine.
You've made the argument before that backup running backs often have superior YPC because they play in lower pressure situations, etc. That was the excuse for Ty Isaac and Mike Cox and whoever else having a higher YPC than De'Veon Smith, Vincent Smith, whoever. Now the backup RB has a significantly lower YPC than the starter, and you're making excuses for it.
I'm not saying Edwards sucks. Nor am I saying that he's broken and will never be fixed. Right now...he's not playing well! It's okay to admit it.
@Thunder
DeleteYou didn't answer the question about vision. If Edwards can just flip a switch, and suddenly go from not playing well to playing well, then he didn't get worse in the offseason. Which means your narrative wouldn't hold up.
------------------------------------
I certainly acknowledge you can play well and not play well depending on how you feel that day. Being comfortable, getting opportunities, all of that stuff matters for being "on". I don't always get a good nights rest or drink enough coffee and may have an off day at work. A great hitter can strike out 4 times in one game and Steph Curry can miss every three he takes. People have bad days.
But bad days can happen to good players on days when they are playing well. A great hitter can crank out 4 line drives that happen to be caught by fielders. Steph Curry can hit every shot he takes but maybe he only gets off 2 if his teammates aren't finding him or the defense is double teaming him.
Boiling every bad day down to bad performance ignores the degree to which things are random - even for good players. Even for a guy like Blake Corum.
1st Half: Corum and Edwards
8 for 33 for 4.1 ypc and 9 for 4.0 ypc <--- Both guys are playing well, with interchangeable results. Nothing amazing but getting the job done.
2nd Half: Corum and Edwards
7 for 38 5.4 ypc and a TD for Corum
6 for 15 2.5 ypc for Edwards
Were both guys playing well in the first half? Did some switch get flipped at the half to turn Corum into a 5 ypc back and turn Edwards into a pumpkin? Did Corum drink a Gatorade while Edwards had a scotch? Or is the difference in the second easily explained by random variation like rolls of the dice or by context (one drive with starters vs one drive with backups).
-------------
Edwards wasn't "not playing well" last year. He played great. But he had days like these, repeatedly. He didn't get results every game, because when you are a RB sometimes you get good results and sometimes you don't. Especially when you are a backup RB that isn't going to get a ton of carries. Even if you are playing equally well at RB.
It's OK to admit that the primary thing in rushing game results is not the RB or how well he is playing at the moment. Rather -- it's the play, the blocking execution, and the defense's response.
We don't have to talk about intangible things like chutzpah if you acknowledge that each play is a roll of the dice and while you may get some 12s, you may also get some 2s. Regardless, you know that in the long run you are going to average around 6.5. When you roll a 12 you aren't rolling any better than when you roll a 2. But if you're playing the game you might start to tell a story about why you're "on". Eventually math will win though.
In the long run Edwards, in this offense, with this OL, is going to average 5 or 6 ypc. By the "long run" here I mean specifically the rest of the 2023 season including the 50 carries to date. He doesn't need to get better - he just has to be himself, the same guy who has put up unexceptional stats to start 2022 and to start 2023.
Edwards is the same guy who went 7 for 15 against Indiana one week and then 16 for 173 the next against PSU last year. The same guy who ran wild on OSU, Purdue, and TCU.
Yes backup RBs get a higher share of their carries in low leverage situations and against cupcakes than primary RBs. OVER THE SEASON.
DeleteIt is not at all uncommon for a starting RB to have a better YPC during cupcake season. It's also not uncommon for him to have less than some guys also, because variance is a thing.
That backup YPC phenomena wasn't even true for Edwards last year. He got most of his carries as the primary back after Corum was hurt, and had a higher share of his carries coming against legit competition than Corum. Despite that I still pushed back against anyone arguing that he was as good or better than Corum (based on his higher YPC) and argued against him splitting carries with Corum or surpass Corum.
In the countdown I noted
"Edwards is LESS important this year than he was last year. Even if he is individually better...If Corum stays healthy, I doubt Edwards breaks 150 carries or gets to 1K rushing yards....His primary value is an insurance policy on another Corum injury, being an elite receiver out of the backfield, and well, being fun and entertaining to watch."
You predicted a 1000 yard season and now you feel like because Edwards is playing poorly he won't reach that goal. I predicted less because I didn't expect him to get enough carries to do it. You see Edwards as failing to meet expectations and getting worse in the offseason. I think he probably got incrementally better and is meeting my expectations just fine. I am pleasantly surprised with how involved he is actually in the pass game and 2 RB sets.
"Edwards is better than ever"
DeleteI'd love to see data behind this. Certainly this statement is 100% feelings
Stats instead of feelings:
Delete#1 player in Big Ten in yards per carry (2022)
#33 player in Big Ten in yards per carry (2023)
2022 non-conference: 15 carries, 90 yards (6.0 YPC), 2 TD
2023 non-conference: 27 carries, 96 yards (3.6 YPC), 0 TD
P.S. If Donovan Edwards's name was Tavierre Dunlap or C.J. Stokes, we would be saying, "Yeah, he doesn't look like he's ready. Hopefully Jordan Marshall or Micah Ka'apana can step up next year." Change the name/number on the jersey, and we wouldn't be having this argument.
Delete@Thunder
DeleteAre you sure I'd be saying that? Or would I be saying it doesn't matter.
You are right that I am considering Edwards play in 2022 as relevant. And yes, that is my "feeling" but it's also grounded in basic science and math (standard variance and randomness are real things).
I think you think your stats prove a point that are counter to my point but I think they illustrate my point.
Just like I was proven correct when I argued against our offense having red zone issues in 2021. Those were REAL STATS showing a REAL THING that drove a narrative, that I argued against. You claim they "fixed" those issues suddenly in one week so I'm trying to preemptively understand if Edwards issues are fixable in one week or they are indicative of a player who got worse.
I would like for you to pick a side. Did Edwards get worse or is it just a fleating thing?
Are these 5 games predictive going forward for the rest of 2023 or are they just noise that we can ignore compared to the larger sample of 2022 and 2021?