RUSH OFFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #53 in rushing offense (169.8 yards/game) and tied for #56 in yards per carry (4.44). Ohio State held up fairly well against the run last week, but they did allow a 22-yard touchdown run by Blake Corum immediately after Michigan starting RG Zak Zinter was lost for the season due to a broken leg. It may be interesting to see what Michigan does with the offensive line. Last week it was RT Karsen Barnhart sliding to right guard, with jumbo TE/extra OT Trente Jones sliding in at right tackle. But Michigan has some options with backup offensive guard Giovanni El-Hadi and former starter Myles Hinton, who was injured two weeks ago but may be available this week. The problem with inserting Jones at right tackle full-time is that it may eliminate Michigan's formations with that sixth offensive lineman. Iowa is #17 in rushing defense (105.6 yards allowed/game) and they give up just 3.09 yards per carry, which is #9 nationally. They have also allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns this season, which is #1. Senior LB Jay Higgins (6'2", 233 lbs.) has some ridiculous stats with 141 tackles, including a season-high 18 against Penn State in the Hawkeyes 31-0 loss. Fellow senior LB Nick Jackson (6'0", 237) has 91 stops of his own, followed by senior safety Quinn Schulte (6'2", 209) with 59. Senior DE Joe Evans (6'2", 252) leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss, followed by Jackson's 8.0 and senior safety Sebastian Castro (5'11", 206) with 8.0. It's a very well coached defense, as always, and they've won 10 games despite a terrible offense.
Advantage: Iowa
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. IOWA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #65 in pass offense (224.8 yards/game) but #4 in passing efficiency and #5 in yards per attempt (9.5). J.J. McCarthy's passing has become less explosive in the past three weeks, whether it's because of tougher opponents or perhaps a lingering injury (or both). He's completing a high volume of passes, but he has just 1 touchdown and 1 interception in that stretch for 7.5, 6.1, and 7.4 yards per attempt - which is well below his season-long average of 9.7. Wide receiver Roman Wilson's 40 catches for 648 yards and 11 touchdowns pace the team, but TE Colston Loveland has been a good security blanket with 37 catches for 550 yards and 4 scores. Iowa is tied for #84 in sacks per game (1.92) and led by Evans's 5.5 and Jackson's 4.0. Star CB Cooper DeJean (41 tackles, 2 INT) is out for the season, along with his 4 career return TDs. Castro is a star at his linebacker/safety hybrid position, recording 52 tackles, 1 sack, 3 interceptions (1 for a TD), and 7 pass breakups this season. It's a very experienced defense with 9 out of 11 players being in their fourth year or later; only second-year players Xavier Nwankpa, a safety, and CB Deshaun Lee have been around for less time. Overall, the Hawkeyes are #9 in pass defense (174.3 yards allowed/game), #4 in pass efficiency defense, and #2 in yards per attempt allowed (5.0). The problem with those stats are that Iowa avoided playing many good passing teams, including Maryland and Ohio State from the Big Ten East, so those are stats tallied against a poor Big Ten West and some mediocre non-conference teams.
Advantage: Iowa
RUSH DEFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #7 in rush defense (91.4 yards allowed/game) and #8 in yards allowed per carry (3.02). They're tied for #4 nationally with just 7 rushing touchdowns given up this season. They gave up just 60 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 carries to Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson last week. Linebackers Junior Colson, Michael Barrett, and Ernest Hausmann lead the team with 71, 45, and 35 tackles, respectively. They're tied at #67 in tackles for loss with 68, and no player has more than 6.5. Iowa's abysmal offense starts with its abysmal running game, which is #105 (122.9 yards/game) and #113 (3.46 yards/carry). I like junior RB Leshon Williams (5'11", 208), but he had just 9 yards on 6 carries against Penn State. Overall, he has 155 carries for 779 yards and just 1 touchdown this season. Ohio native Kaleb Johnson (6'0", 222) has 104 carries for 415 yards and 3 scores this season. The offensive line has been beaten and battered this season; they're missing three starters, and junior RG Connor Colby (6'6", 311) is the best of the bunch, while both LG and LT are weak spots as replacements.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #4 in pass defense (155.3 yards allowed/game) and #6 in passing efficiency defense. They give up 6.0 yards per attempt, which is tied for #7 nationally. First Team All-Big Ten CB Will Johnson left last week's game with an ankle injury, and his status is unclear for this week. Michigan managed just fine without him early in the year with Josh Wallace and an array of other guys opposite Wallace, but these are some big moments for a backup to handle. Slot CB Mike Sainristil has played some outside, but guys like Amorion Walker and Ja'Den McBurrows have played very limited snaps. Outside linebacker Jaylen Harrell leads the team with 5.5 sacks and also notched the pressure that forced Kyle McCord to throw the game-sealing INT last week. Iowa's passing offense was powered by Michigan transfer QB Cade McNamara and Michigan transfer TE Erick All early in the year, but both suffered ACL injuries. They have been replaced by sophomore QB Deacon Hill (6'3", 258), who has completed 48.3% of his passes for 976 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions; and by sophomore TE Addison Ostrenga (6'4", 255), who has 22 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. Senior WR Nico Ragaini (6'0", 190) is the leading healthy receiving target with 26 catches for 227 yards. Ohio State transfer WR Kaleb Brown (5'10", 197) has "come on" - at least by Iowa standards - with 14 catches for 142 yards and 1 score over the past four games. Overall, it's not clear how one might expect Iowa to move the ball against Michigan. They managed just 76 total yards of offense against Penn State, which is the only other ranked team on Iowa's schedule. This could get ugly.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Iowa players recruited by Michigan include: TE Erick All, WR Kaleb Brown, DB Koen Entringer, OL Trevor Lauck, QB Cade McNamara, DB Xavier Nwankpa, RB Jaziun Patterson, OL Beau Stephens, DB Kahlil Tate
- Iowa players from the state of Michigan include: DB Brenden Deasfernandes, DB Koen Entringer (Walled Lake Western), FB Hayden Large (Unity Christian), DB Deshaun Lee (Belleville), K Marshall Meeder (Eaton Rapids), DL Kenneth Merrieweather (Detroit MLK), OL Daijon Parker (Westland John Glenn)
- Iowa QB Cade McNamara and TE Erick All both transferred from Michigan to Iowa this past off-season, but both have suffered season-ending ACL injuries and will not play
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On October 1, 2022, Michigan beat Iowa by a score of 27-14
- QB J.J. McCarthy went 18/24 for 155 yards and 1 touchdown
- RB Blake Corum ran 29 times for 133 yards and 1 touchdown
- Iowa TE Luke Lachey caught 4 passes for 84 yards and 1 touchdown
- Iowa P Tory Taylor averaged 48.2 yards/punt on 5 attempts
PREDICTION
- Michigan 27, Iowa 6
31-0
ReplyDeleteBenches empty in the 4th.
Historic game.
#2 vs #1 in 1985. Bo gonna Bo, loses 12-10 if I remember.
Iowa was really bad in the 70's, hired Fry, changed their uniforms to look like the Steelers, and painted the visitors locker room pink.
Lloyd Carr traveled with the team in 2009 to Iowa and sat in the Iowa Box with the Iowa dignitaries.
He is dead to me.
Chuck Long, the Iowa QB for those great teams, was drafted by the Lions and promptly sucked .
Hard to believe, but Goff is the best QB the Lions have had. Stafford will get votes. Gary Danielson might get some, not really.
I had 27-3, and expected a very boring offense
ReplyDeleteWhile Iowa O is notoriously terrible, I was impressed by our D; played w/their hair on fire!
Semaj getting caught by #4 who had been laying on the 5yd line was funny
Yeah. That was a great play by Entringer. I actually kind of wonder if Entringer would have shown that kind of effort if it hadn't been against Michigan. He's a local kid who was offered by the staff but not really heavily pursued. He probably knows some of these kids, maybe even knows Semaj Morgan. Maybe he would have shown the same effort against another team, but I just think maybe he had an extra 3% of "want to" to make that play. Regardless, a great effort by him.
DeleteFrom Morgan's perspective, that's the type of thing you see with freshmen. By the time he's a junior or senior, he will be in good enough shape to where he won't run out of steam like that. He's still not the fastest guy around, but he'll at least be able to maintain his speed for 87 yards and not conk out at about 60.
Just got my tickets 〽️
ReplyDeleteLank, lemme know if you wanna meet up 😉
Great game and time for celebration to the Victors. A Those Who Stay game for many of the vets.
ReplyDeleteOffensive struggles were a bit frustrating. Seemed like we might have missed Zinter. That said, important to remember that MIchigan has now played 3 top 5 defenses in Iowa, PSU, and OSU. All three were able to keep our offense in check, which is what good defenses do. But none of them shut us down.
Bama's D is not on that level. Lesser than FSU too. Closer to Nebraska level than OSU.
On the other side of the ball, it should be interesting. Alabama is closer to PSU than OSU. Better than Maryland but statistically the worst offense in the playoffs. Milroe is going to put stress on Minter's D but this is a place where it should be advantageous having veteran edges who play disciplined.
I was hoping to play FSU but have to admit the drama and intrigue for the Bama matchup is higher. Made for TV.
Very disappointing that the committee caved to the SEC pressure and picked Bama over a more deserving FSU. I guess it's good news that the committee didn't decide that Michigan was not as good without Zinter so we should be excluded also. Plus if Bama didn't make it the committee would have found a way to put in UGA instead.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely not a fan of Barnhart, but the coaches like his versatility and may not trust El Hadi yet
DeleteI've been harping on Edwards use since the Countdown. Seth has a pretty good piece here on the same:
ReplyDeletehttps://mgoblog.com/content/neck-sharpies-i-want-more-edwards