Here are some quick-hitting thoughts on the College Football Playoff selection.
#1 Michigan: Personally, I don't necessarily believe Michigan is the best team in the country. I think there are a couple teams that would defeat Michigan 51% or more of the time. That doesn't mean Michigan can't win the national championship. It just means things will have to fall their way and/or they'll have to play up to their potential. But they had to be the choice for #1, because they have shown both a consistent offense and a consistent defense, along with solid special teams. Washington's defense has not been great, and both Texas and Alabama have had losses. Unfortunately, I think Alabama is one of the teams that I would choose to defeat Michigan at this point, and I would have had Georgia ahead of them, too. This is a tough matchup for the Wolverines.
#2 Washington: Washington has a questionable defense, but their offense has been explosive for most of the year. They average 7.23 yards/play and QB Michael Penix, who used to play at Indiana, has thrown for 4,218 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions this year. And RB Dillon Johnson has run for 1,113 yards and 14 touchdowns. Despite some struggles, winning the games is what matters, and they did that 13 times with zero losses. Their last four games have been one-score wins, including one against a 5-7 Washington State team.
#3 Texas: Texas has an all-around good football program with former 5-star QB Quinn Ewers at the helm. They also have two former Michigan commits in star WR Xavier Worthy and DE Ethan Burke, the latter of whom leads the squad with 5.5 sacks. Their one loss came against Oklahoma, and it was a 34-30 game. Oklahoma finished 10-2 and is ranked #12. The big win was against Alabama early in the season, a 34-24 victory when the Tide were trying to figure out their QB situation. Head coach Steve Sarkisian struggled in stints at Washington and USC, but he's a coach who worked with Nick Saban as a coordinator, which somehow propelled him to success at Texas. Sometimes spending a bit of time around Saban works magic for some guys, like it did with Jim McElwain, Kirby Smart, Lane Kiffin, and others.
#4 Alabama: First of all, Alabama shouldn't be in the CFP because they had a loss to Texas. Florida State went 13-0 in a Power Five conference and absolutely should have been the CFP committee's choice. The Seminoles should be #3 and Texas should be #4. Yes, Florida State QB Jordan Travis broke his leg and is out for the season, but the Seminoles continued to win without him. Winning the games should matter more than a popularity contest. But the CFP knows that a lot of people watch SEC football, and they don't want to piss off a moneymaking conference. It's a travesty that those players and coaches have to watch the CFP from afar. That being said . . . I would pick Alabama to beat Michigan, which sucks for the Wolverines. Michigan's offensive line has struggled this season, and its best lineman, Zak Zinter, is out for the year with a broken leg. Meanwhile, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe (10.4 yards/attempt, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs, 12 rushing TDs) has taken a giant step forward since the beginning of the year. He can run and throw and presents a lot of issues for Michigan's defense. I'll be doing my research and watching more film over the next few weeks, but I do think 'Bama would beat Michigan more times than not.
The playoff committee was going to put an SEC team in come hell or high water, and that much was clear even before the SEC championship game. I thought the scenario was:
ReplyDelete-- If Georgia won over Alabama, Georgia (obviously)
-- If Alabama won, but only barely after a close game, then Georgia
-- If Alabama won by enough to justify Alabama, then Alabama
So in the playoff selection discussions I imagine they first settled on Alabama, then they had to put Texas in (because they beat Alabama), and then they had to come up with a justification for excluding FSU. The entire thing revolved around getting an SEC team into the playoffs.
As for Michigan's chances: I agree, things are going to have to break Michigan's way. Michigan historically does not do well in bowls. There's something about the long layoff that hinders Michigan, and I don't know what it is. Some teams come off the four week layoff and play like they never left off, and others (Michigan) that don't play so well. Alabama is a team that always seems to play well after the layoff.
Next year: lots of open switches, including who will be there, including Jim Harbaugh himself. I myself am not convinced he's coming back. This was the year to win it all, because next year is going to be a rebuilding year. The threat of further sanctions for this Stalions stuff is greater than zero percent. McCarthy may be back, but I think that's 50/50. I don't think he would be one of the top QBs in the draft after this year, but he may decide the time is now and go.
College football is rapidly changing, and not necessarily for the good for those who long for the traditionalist past. So I guess we should enjoy what fragments of what once was college football while we still can.
Last year against TCU, Michigan was down 21-6 at the half. Why was Michigan unprepared for this? Why did Michigan not know that TCU would load the box to stop the run and force Michigan to throw, and why did it take to the second half for Michigan to wake up? Yes, the final score was close, but Michigan is not, and never has been, a team to score a ton of points and come back from big deficits.
DeleteThis all gets to the question: why is Michigan one of those teams that doesn't seem to be as prepared for bowl games as other teams? Exceptions exist, yes; but in general that's the case.
CFB is headed in the wrong direction on many fronts. But I have to admit that for now, it's highly entertaining.
DeleteBama/Georgia have earned respect as brands but the results have just not been there this season. Almost all of it is based on the tautology of SEC superiority, which has not really held up under a microscope. Alabama's struggles vs not only Texas but also USF in the non-conference are instructive. And within the conference you have struggles vs Arkansas and Auburn among others. A very mid Tennessee team went toe to toe with them as well.
ReplyDeleteEvery team struggles at some points during a season but Alabama has done it for about half their games.
The one legitimate bit of evidence of Alabama belonging is that their recruiting talent is still the best in the country.
I consider Michigan/Alabama a toss up and that speaks mostly to how much Michigan has elevated since they played last time. But also to how Bama has slipped a bit. This is a winnable game.
Am I allowed to be disappointed in the play calling / game planning after this game? I know that we won 26-0 - I get it. We didn't want to give Iowa any chance to win this game, and therefore our strategy was to severely limit possible turnovers on offense. But man the lack of creativity is uninspiring going into the playoff. I was really hoping that we would find a way to unleash Edwards in the pass game throughout the year and that just hasn't been the case at all. If anything I think we used him more effectively in 2021 and 2022.
ReplyDeleteWe did what it took to win. Boring, but that's MICHIGAN. What we didn't need is trying to put on a show, and getting into mistakes ... I was surprised Corum played as much as he did
DeleteMy early lean is UM 27, Bama 20
ReplyDeleteI'm all feelings here. I don't like Saban w/4weeks to prepare, but this M team has played better than the Tide all year, both sides of the ball & SpTms ... maybe facing mighty Bama from the *SEC* will get our guys focused like it's The Game (hopefully)
This won't be easy, but keep Milroe guessing on our Coverage, and he's prone to mistakes ... keep JJ clean for Gods sake, and let this young man play the game of his life
*I have not been impressed with the SEC this year, and did not think any of them should have gotten in the playoffs. UGa was my #1 before Saturday, but even then it had more to do with 21&22 than 2o23
You have to feel bad for the Seminoles, as the only thing they did wrong was get their QB hurt.
ReplyDeleteI do believe that Georgia is the best team in college football this year, but as Al Davis once famously said, "Just Win, Baby". It was all there for them, and they didn't.
Out of the four we got, I'd have dropped Texas rather than FSU on the notion that wins in November are more important than wins in September. Texas couldn't get past Oklahoma, their biggest rival in the Red River game. God forbid that we have to find out, but I don't think they have a chance of getting past Alabama a second time, either. Besides, they have the one guy I really don't want to have to play, Xavier Worthy. Feel free to take note of this inconsistency, I don't care.
Were it me, I'd make Harbaugh the highest paid coach in all of college football, with language that maintains that status and hope that the NCAA messes with us. First of all, I'm liking being the bad guy for once, and second, a pissed off Harbaugh seems like just a whole lot of fun.
I would just love me some 16 run, 84 yard drives over 9 minutes every once in a while over the next ten years.
Roanman
That last scoring drive against OSU was so dang close to being that iconic 9 min python drive. A 3rd down conversion (or 4th down decision) away from putting the game away like THAT.
DeleteWe won so no complaints but it could have been the offense putting the cherry on top instead of a very terrifying final drive on D getting capped by Moore's INT.