The following depth chart has removed these listed players from the depth chart, even though some could return with a fifth year or COVID year exception:
- QB Jack Tuttle (graduation)
- RB Blake Corum (graduation)
- WR Cornelius Johnson (graduation)
- WR Roman Wilson (graduation)
- OL Karsen Barnhart (graduation)
- OL LaDarius Henderson (graduation)
- OL Myles Hinton (graduation)
- OL Trente Jones (graduation)
- OL Trevor Keegan (graduation)
- OL Drake Nugent (graduation)
- OL Zak Zinter (graduation)
- DT Cam Goode (graduation)
- LB Michael Barrett (graduation)
- LB/RB Kalel Mullings (graduation)
- LB Joey Velazquez (graduation)
- CB Mike Sainristil (graduation)
- CB Josh Wallace (graduation)
- S Quinten Johnson (graduation)
- K James Turner (graduation)
It also assumes that every currently rostered player and every currently committed prospect will be here in 2024, which is obviously not true.
Hit the jump for the depth chart.
QB: J.J. McCarthy (Sr.), Jayden Denegal (RS So.), Davis Warren (RS Jr.), Alex Orji (RS So.), Jadyn Davis (Fr.)
RB: Donovan Edwards (Sr.), Benjamin Hall (RS Fr.), C.J. Stokes (RS So.), Tavierre Dunlap (RS Jr.), Cole Cabana (RS Fr.), Micah Ka'apana (Fr.), Jordan Marshall (Fr.)
WR1: Darrius Clemons (Jr.), Karmello English (So.), Cristian Dixon (RS Jr.), Kendrick Bell (So.)
WR2: Semaj Morgan (So.), Fredrick Moore (So.), Channing Goodwin (Fr.)
WR3: Tyler Morris (RS So.), Eamonn Dennis (RS Sr.), I'Marion Stewart (Fr.)
TE: Colston Loveland (Jr.), A.J. Barner (RS Sr.), Max Bredeson (RS Jr.), Matt Hibner (RS Sr.), Marlin Klein (RS So.), Zack Marshall (RS Fr.), Deakon Tonielli (RS Fr.), Brady Prieskorn (Fr.), Hogan Hansen (Fr.)
LT: Jeffrey Persi (RS Sr.), Evan Link (RS Fr.), Andrew Sprague (Fr.)
LG: Giovanni El-Hadi (RS Jr.), Nathan Efobi (RS Fr.), Luke Hamilton (Fr.)
C: Greg Crippen (RS Jr.), Amir Herring (RS Fr.), Jake Guarnera (Fr.)
RG: Raheem Anderson II (RS Jr.), Dominick Giudice (RS Jr.), Connor Jones (RS So.), Ben Roebuck (Fr.)
RT: Andrew Gentry (RS So.), Tristan Bounds (RS Jr.), Blake Frazier (Fr.)
EDGE: Braiden McGregor (RS Sr.), Derrick Moore (Jr.), T.J. Guy (RS Jr.), Kechaun Bennett (RS Jr.), Enow Etta (RS Fr.), Dominic Nichols (Fr.)
SDE: Kris Jenkins Jr. (RS Sr.), Cameron Brandt (So.), Brooks Bahr (RS Fr.)
DT: Mason Graham (Jr.), Rayshaun Benny (RS Jr.), Reece Atteberry (RS Sr.), Alessandro Lorenzetti (RS So.), Manuel Beigel (Fr.), Ted Hammond (Fr.), Owen Wafle (Fr.)
NT: Kenneth Grant (Jr.), Ike Iwunnah (RS Jr.), Roderick Pierce (So.)
Rush LB: Jaylen Harrell (RS Sr.), Josaiah Stewart (Sr.), Tyler McLaurin (RS Jr.), Breeon Ishmail (So.), Aymeric Koumba (So.), Devon Baxter (Fr.), Jaden Smith (Fr.)
MIKE: Ernest Hausmann (Jr.), Jimmy Rolder (Jr.), Micah Pollard (Jr.), Jason Hewlett (RS Fr.), Mason Curtis (Fr.), Cole Sullivan (Fr.)
WILL: Junior Colson (Sr.), Jaydon Hood (RS Jr.), Semaj Bridgeman (RS Fr.), Jeremiah Beasley (Fr.), Zach Ludwig (Fr.)
CB: Amorion Walker (Jr.), Jyaire Hill (So.), D.J. Waller (So.), Myles Pollard (RS So.), Cam Calhoun (So.), Jo'Ziah Edmond (Fr.)
CB: Will Johnson (Jr.), Ja'Den McBurrows (RS Jr.), Kody Jones (RS So.), Jeremiah Lowe (Fr.)
FS: Rod Moore (Sr.), Zeke Berry (Jr.)
SS: Makari Paige (RS Sr.), Keon Sabb (RS So.), Jacob Oden (Fr.)
K: Adam Samaha (RS Fr.)
P: Tommy Doman (RS Jr.)
LOL good luck. With Portal, NIL, NFL there is going to be massive roster uncertainty well into January and it will linger even through spring practice.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that the incoming portal class will be about 10-15 guys this year but obviously that depends on how many depart.
Used to be you had 4 years of eligibility and 4 years to play it. The red-shirt rule was created in the 1930s and from there things stayed pretty stable for over 50 years. Everyone had 5 years to play 4. Simple.
ReplyDeleteThe only real decisions through the 1980s where a) holding out freshman who could contribute and b) guys with a 5th year option sticking around or not. Then in 1990s the NFL changed their eligibility rules and guys started going pro after 3 years. That's still a tiny percentage of college players, people entering the NFL as underclassmen has been trending up for a while but is still around 100 per year nationally, compared to around 20 per year around 2000. This affects the power programs dramatically more than it does the MAC-level teams, but it is highly relevant to the college football landscape because it tends to be some of the very best players who go pro. Though, it has to be said, very few of these players are top 10 picks and the number that goes undrafted has been more than the number that goes in the top 10 every year since 2000. Simple, but with asterisk.
Then in 2011 the grad transfer rule was brought in which immediately changed the landscape for college football. Transfers had always been allowed of course, but the 1 year sit-out rule was a substantial penalty that inhibited it. There were always many more transfers than early NFL entries, but in terms of impact to the college football landscape, the transfers tended to be guys who weren't playing anyway, so they were usually shrugged off. The 2010s however, saw a bunch of 5th year guys who could find a more appropriate fit to be starters at a new school. Some moved up for better competition and NFL exposure and others moved down for playing time, but one thing that the majority had in common was that few of them got grad degrees (the ostensible rationale for grad transfers). Now you had guys like Russell Wilson transferring up and being Heisman caliber players. Not simple anymore.
DeleteThe grad transfer phenomena trended up almost immediately with the success of the pioneers. But also, because more and more people had the ability (with high school credits, early enrollment, tutor support, and summer classes) to graduate in 3 years, thus enabling grad transfers to include guys who had not only their 5th year but also their 4th available post-transfer. Not simple, at all..
In 2018, the NCAA created the transfer portal to all this movement, thus providing some structure and allow everyone to keep tabs on who was going to move around. The portal is just an administrative tool though so it has no real effect on the game. It's paperwork.
DeleteBut then 2021 hit and the one-year transfer penalty was lifted and the floodgates opened. Anyone could transfer, at any time, for any reason. Simultaneous to this, the 2020 season was an instant red-shirt for everyone on top of any conventional red-shirt (for those who qualified) so now you had college football with a whole extra class of guys playing in their 6th (or even 7th) seasons. Whereas in real life seniors are typical 21 now you have 23, 24, and 25 years olds being labeled "seniors" for college football eligibility. On top of THAT NIL was turning college players into millionaires and making compensation an immediate conversation, particularly for anyone who could start at a power 5 caliber program. Absolute chaos. The only thing simple is that anyone can do whatever they want.*
*Unless they want to transfer into Michigan and expect to get a diploma based off 80% transfer credits
And here is the thing I think some people are still not getting. We're just at the tip of the iceberg here. Like early NFL entry and grad transfers the early usage was far smaller than it became. People like Earnest Hausman (moving on after 4 months because he proved himself to be an underrated recruit out of high school) and Josiah Stewart (moving up after 2 impressive seasons at a lower level of competition) made some brave and uncommon choices...that will be completely common and expected within a few years. Any freshman or sophomore thriving at their school will have to ask themselves if they couldn't be moving up a tier or three to get paid more money, play for a more prestigious school, win more games and increase their NFL opportunities. Even if it's for less playing time (e.g., Hausman, Hinton), the grass tends to be greener somewhere else, for most people.
DeleteMost guys move on without graduating. Graduation could occur after 3, 4, 5, or 6 years. Real life is completely divorced from eligibility. Getting through COVID will clear things up but we still won't really care about who red-shirted and who didn't because projecting 1 year out will be useful about half the time.
Last year there were 238 players transferring from mid-majors to power 5 programs. That number is going to go up up up. That includes Josiah Stewart types but that's not including guys moving around within the P5 (like Hausman and Hinton).
Unless something changes you can expect about 50-60% roster turnover annually within a couple years. High school recruiting will still be important but less important than recruiting freshman and sophomores away from other programs. And those recruiting elements will be less important than the biggies -- getting 4th and 5th year guys into your program (and putting up NIL to keep the rare birds that stick it out all 4/5 years at one school).
That's my "essay" LOL.
DeleteTL;DR
All of this is to say that Thunder's structure here is obsolete. It worked in the 90s and aughts for the majority of players and still held value through the 2010s but now it does not tell you very much more than what your current roster tells you.
To be clear this is NOT intended as a criticism of the post or of Thunder in any way just an observation that any roster projection we do one or two years out is mostly futile.
If it isn't yet, it will be completely futile within a few years IMO. Every single person will be a "maybe" for the following years - whether they are a proven starter deciding to come back for year 5, a junior contemplating the NFL, a sophomore backup who may feel like he has a better chance to start in the MAC before moving back to P5 as a senior rather than "waiting his turn", or a freshman looking for a raise.
@ Lank 10:43 a.m.
DeleteI don't think the structure is obsolete. It's projecting the 2024 roster/depth chart. From there you can see which players might be inclined to leave and where the coaching staff might look to upgrade. This is the type of thing that exists in every Director of Player Personnel's office so they can have a visual of what the roster looks like moving forward.
Are these projections or predictions? In other words is this your "best guess" or is it simply a listing of who can return and who can't?
DeleteAll due respect Thunder but it's not clear what you are doing because there is no consistent methodology or approach.
You have eliminated many players who have eligibility left, while keeping others. On the OL alone, there are 6! returning starters (Nugent, Hinton, Barnhart, Jones, Zinter, Keegan) who could come back if they wanted. Only Henderson is out of eligibility. All 7 starters are listed as departing for graduation but I don't know that any of them are graduating in December or May.
Are you saying you expect none of them back? I don't think you are necessarily predicting all 6 will be gone -- but maybe you are? If so, are you predicting JJ returns as well?
You have also cut two players widely expected to return to bigger roles -- Mullings and QJohnson -- while keeping others who are projected to be drafted in the first 3 rounds (JJ + Jenkins, Edwards) are listed for "consideration" in the active roster. Meanwhile Corum and Wilson are assumed to be gone even though they have eligibility left and are expected to be drafted lower. I don't think Corum is coming back either but I would bet heavily on some of the others being back.
Then on top of that you have 5-15 guys who will leave via Portal. Stokes just announced today. And missing 5-15 guys who will come in from the Portal. Plus all the high school recruit uncertainty that is left.
Every 2020 recruit can return if they want. Some 2019 guys can return but others can't. Every 2023 recruit can leave if they want.
The methodology is inconsistent and unclear. If you culled only the guys with expired eligibility, it would be one thing. But it's a mixed bag of guys you are guessing will leave and guys who have eligibility expired, all listed under the category of "graduation" which applies to very few of them.
I know there is no such thing as a perfect forecast and that the task is impossible - but when you are not looking at eligibility nor NFL stock consistently and you are adding speculation into the mix in some cases and ignoring it others - it doesn't add up.
And then depth chart is whole other issue - are you saying that you are predicting Jayden Denegal being that far ahead of Jaydn Davis? Darrius Clemons jumping past Morris and Morgan? Is Amorion Walker going to jump ahead of McBurrows and Waller?
Bottom line, I don't think this gives you a very good sense of either the roster or the depth chart. The roster is MAYBE 2/3 correct, at best. The depth chart is, of course, even harder but makes some fairly notable omissions of positions like nickel and some head scratching predictions (if taken at face value).
Again, I do not set out here to be critical of you or the post, it's just an impossible task right now. When something like 1/3 of the roster is wrong and most of that is at the top of the depth chart, it's about as useful as projecting the Detroit Lions 2024 roster before the draft, free agency and trades take place.
Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty right now. Welcome to sports! I just had a conversation with someone who was talking about who might take over for Nick Saban if Saban wins the national championship this year and decides to ride off into the sunset. Will he retire? Won't he retire? What if he loses to Michigan? What if he beats Michigan but loses in the national championship game? Is that how he wants to go out?
DeleteNobody knows!
There's certainly a methodology here. People who have used up the traditional 4 or 5 (or 6) years of eligibility have been eliminated. If they announce they're coming back next year, I'll re-add them to the depth chart next month. Just like if a player announces he'll transfer, he'll be removed by the next iteration.
I stated at the top that some of those departing players can return, depending on their decision. It's a working document.
Should I wait until the final roster is set to post a potential depth chart? Because that would be...never. Eyabi Okie joined the team in August 2022. Some guys hit the transfer portal mid-season. It is what it is.
Got it. Well there's no point in ignoring COVID years but noting red-shirt years. For roster/depth chart forecasting it's the same thing - those seasons don't count towards eligibility. The way you've done it is more confusing than listing the current roster. If you just chose to use COVID years to lump 2020 guys in with 2021 and ignored red-shirts it would be the same thing. Inaccurate and incomplete.
Delete
Delete"Should I wait until the final roster is set to post a potential depth chart?"
No. Nobody is saying you must have 100% certainty, though for depth chart purposes there's not a ton of use until you have something at least 90% of the way there.
Signing day is about a week away which will provide a big dose of info. Waiting until the season is over is probably merited since you'll have a bunch of entries into the portal at that point. Then the big ones are the NFL decisions come by mid January. In a month you'll know so much more than this. Right now you're at 60% at best and in a month you'll be at 85%. At least on the roster side.
Portal entrants will trickle in after that but there's levels to the uncertainty. With the arbitrary exclusion of covid years + inclusion of red-shirt years this version is all over the map Waiting for announcements to exclude some guys and not waiting on others only adds to the inaccuracy of what is inherently an inaccurate exercise.
It's a pretty random list. It's not eligibility-based, it's not a prediction based on subjective judgement of will go, it's not based on draft stock. Because of that it doesn't really provide any clarity.
Sorry to come off as critical but I think you are overstating the usefulness of this at this point. I certainly hope nobodies staffs are doing an exercise like this which is essentially excluding some players who are eligibile while keeping others who are almost certainly gone. You can flip it and exclude red-shirts -- equally random.
Looking at eligibility, then likelihood of return, then potential pecking order -- yeah that can make some sense even if it's very premature. Looking at COVID but not red-shirts (or vice-versa) is taking an exercise of trying to provide some kind of rough draft logical order to a roster but starting it off with inaccurate assumptions. GIGO.
There will be portal entrants coming Feb-Aug likely again but in a matter of weeks you'll have a decent assessment of the roster and thus the potential portal needs, while the above tells you almost nothing about that.
It is mid december and we have very little clue about who is coming and going. My mid January we will have a very good sense of it.
We are not talking about August strays finalizing the last spot on the roster we are talking about critical pieces being omitted and excluded.
We are talking about night and day differences from reality right now vs a few weeks from now.
Just to put this in perspective. Last year's version of this is here:
Deletehttps://touch-the-banner.com/way-too-early-2023-depth-chart-december-2022/
It got 12 STARTERS wrong. And it came after most of the portal additions already happened!
@ Lank 3:50 p.m.
DeleteSo don't read it. LOL. It's not meant to be 100% accurate. It's meant to show a snapshot of what the depth chart could look like if we were to go into 2024 with all those pieces still in place.
This ain't the Bible. You're not going to burn in Hell if you don't buy into the written word here.
Also, that depth chart got a lot of things right. I'm not going to go back and re-evaluate it 12 months later because it's just not really that important, but several of the guys I missed on were talented enough to start (Andrel Anthony started at Oklahoma, Henning at Northwestern, Hill-Green at Charlotte, D.J. Turner with the Cincinnati Bengals, and Mike Morris who went on to the NFL after already starting). So it's not like it was a complete mis-evaluation of the talent. I also pegged Myles Hinton as a starter, and he did indeed begin the season as the starter at RT; you're probably dinging me for that, but I had a pretty good evaluation of him when a lot of people were like "actually, he looked really bad at Stanford" and he ended up starting five games. And maybe he would have started a couple more if not for getting injured. So yay me!
Anyway, this is not to be taken as scripture. It is what it is. It's a snapshot and a talking point. If you want to say, "I think Player X will start over Player Y, and here's why," go for it. If you want to say the whole thing is useless...well...nobody's forcing you to spend your time commenting.
my favorite part of the essays was that they were followed up with a quibble on RB depth in the Stokes post
Delete@Thunder
Delete"So don't read it. LOL." "nobody's forcing you to spend your time commenting"
Yes LOL. 100 emoji. No dispute. I enjoy your content and am quibbling here.
"It's not meant to be 100% accurate"
Yes - nobody is saying it should be. That's impossible. But at what point is it useful? I am not calling into question the value of a projected depth chat fundamentally, I am saying that it is simply too soon for this to be useful. If you can't get even HALF the starters right... if you're culling people who will be back...
"it's not like it was a complete mis-evaluation of the talent"
well those are two very different bars aren't they? 100% accurate depth chart vs "something indicative of talent"? If you are trying to project the roster, including Anthoney is a miss not a hit. If you are trying to project talent, Eamon Dennis over Semaj Morgan is a miss. etc.
As far as I can tell you are not evaluating talent. I don't think that's what you were shooting for or you wouldn't have put all the freshman last. Anyway, we have (your) recruiting rankings for that.
My quibble is that it's not clear what you ARE doing.
Overview of the potential roster? Don't cut guys who are likely to be back.
Prediction of the depth chart? There's basic inaccuracies like not including nickel and showing 3 WRs, plus issues of projecting some departures and not others.
Evaluation of talent? Hard to account for age/class differences.
It's a jumble. But I hear you. I'll shut up about it.
FWIW - since you brought up HInton, he never started at RT he started at LT. You've grouped CBs but not OTs, Edges, WRs. I would have credited you if listed OTs and got Barnhart and Hinton as your top 2 -- both started! As is, you did not get either LT or RT correct, even with 4 opportunities (Henderson LT, Hinton LT, Jones RT, Barnhart RT) all but Jones are at the wrong position.
Those are my quibbles. You don't care and that's your right. But if you are claiming this your good faith projection of the roster or depth chart, I don't think you are being honest.
my favorite part of the typed with fat thumbs poster is that they again have nothing to say about football but just want to talk about/to lank.
Delete@ Lank 1:52 p.m.
DeleteHinton started the first four games of this season at right tackle.
Yep my mistake. I was misremembering it as a Hinton/Henderson battling at LT and Barnhart/Jones at RT. But Barnhart flipped around and started at both OT spots.
DeleteAnyway, you nailed both the OT starters and my memory stinks it seems. Tip of the hat.
you were criticizing the intent of the OP, nothing specific to the game ... relax
DeletePersonnel is a big part of the game. IYKYK
DeleteHalf a year later this is obsolete. By my count, 11 out of 24 listed as top option for starting are not considered in contention for the starting spot or outright not even on the roster. 11 look right. Meanwhile 4 players who were removed off the roster are back and expected to play a major role.
ReplyDeleteI'll repeat my earlier comment "To be clear this is NOT intended as a criticism of the post or of Thunder in any way just an observation that any roster projection we do one or two years out is mostly futile."
Given the snapshot of starters being 11 "right" and 11 "wrong" that says this is halfway futile after just a few months. And this is BEFORE fall camp further changes the situation.
I disagree. It's a snapshot in time. It's even labeled by month. It shows weaknesses on the roster and where help might be needed if people leave. It shows the depth of positions that might need to be reinforced via the transfer portal.
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