Michigan is #5 in rush offense (243 yards/game) and averages 5.64 yards per carry, which is #4 nationally. They have scored 38 touchdowns on the ground, which is tied for #2 in the country. Somewhat amazingly, the running game really hasn't fallen off in the last two games, even though starting running back Blake Corum has missed the vast majority of that time. Backup Donovan Edwards has 47 carries for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns in those two contests against Ohio State and Purdue. It appears that linebacker Kalel Mullings has claimed the #2 running back spot with 9 carries for 27 yards in the last two games. Former third-stringer C.J. Stokes has barely played in that time, and neither has walk-on Isaiah Gash, who got some key plays against Illinois a few games ago. The offensive line - which won the Joe Moore Award for a second straight year - should be mostly intact, though it's unclear whether early-year starting right tackle Trente Jones will return to the starting lineup in place of Karsen Barnhart. The line also includes center Olu Oluwatimi, who won the Rimington and Outland trophies for being the best center and interior lineman, respectively.
TCU is #65 in rush defense (149.5 yards allowed/game) and #67 in yards allowed per carry (4.1). They have allowed 21 touchdowns on the ground, which is tied for #84. They run a 3-3-5 defense, which means they mostly use three defensive linemen and three linebackers, at least until they get into short yardage or goal line situations. The front line consists of freshman nose tackle Damonic Williams (6'2", 320), who was Defensive Rookie of the Year in the Big 12, and two defensive ends that are 275-280 lbs. One of those ends is 6'4", 275 lb. Dylan Horton, a transfer from New Mexico who made 38 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 6 sacks. It's typically not a great defense to play against a team that uses extra linemen and tight ends to create unbalanced sets and extra gaps, because then linebackers and safeties have to fit in new gaps at different angles. Navy transfer weakside linebacker Johnny Hodges (6'2", 240) leads the team with 76 stops, including 7.5 behind the line. Strong safety Mark Perry (6'0", 215) plays off the tight end and is second on the squad with 74 tackles, 6.0 of them for loss. The top seven tacklers are linebackers and safeties, and the first lineman doesn't appear on the list until #9 (Horton); in other words, the linemen just try to eat up blocks until the safeties and linebackers can get there. Horton looks like a pretty good athlete once he gets off of blocks, but playing as a 4i, he doesn't get much of a chance to get loose.
Advantage: Michigan. While TCU did play well against Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson from Texas (12 carries, 29 yards), that was not the norm and Michigan has run the ball against everyone in 2022. Michigan is bigger at the point of attack, and the Wolverines run an offense that TCU simply doesn't see in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs run to the football well, but they are likely to get pushed around once they slam into Michigan's linemen and tight ends.
Ian Boyd has a theory about CFB playoff success that starts with something that I think is pretty intuitive -- once you get to the playoff (i.e., elite competition) you can't rely on a dominant run game anymore. We saw that when Michigan played Georgia last year (and multiple times in the Rodriguez era). Once your bigger badder boys on the OL are facing bigger badder boys a DL the thing you used to physically overpower your opponents all regular season long is gone. You better be multi-faceted enough to have another thing to rely on.
ReplyDeleteMy interpretation of this for Michigan is 3 levels of increasing challenge/response:
1. Run game with physically dominant OL --> elite DL OR D stacks the box
2. Deep shots downfield --> Corners who can lock down 1on1 OR bracket
3. Sophisticated pass game to move the ball even if corners are locking down deep -> elite LBs and safeties who can cover 1on1
Anyway, I wasn't totally surprised the run game kept going well without Corum because our OL was up for the challenge of Purdue and even OSU. I think we would have had the same 1st half struggles against OSU that we had with Corum because OSU stacked the box. Except for 1 exceptional big play on the 1st scripted drive, the same was true for Illinois - when they stacked it they were successful. In these cases, we need McCarthy and the pass game to bail out the run.
I'll disagree a little bit with Thunder because I do think those 2 teams (OSU and ILL) were pretty effective at shutting down, or at least limiting, the Michigan run game. Illinois didn't really have the offensive ability to apply any real pressure, but OSU pushed Michigan to Level 2 for the first time all year. OSU's secondary was not good enough to push to Level 3 though. Illinois was, we couldn't hit deep shots on them, but their offense didn't really force the issue. Georgia's would but that's getting ahead of ourselves...
TCU would seem to have enough time to try to follow the Illinois and first-half-OSU recipe. Load up to stop the Michigan run game - regardless of RB Michigan will want to run. TCU doesn't seem to have the "bigger boys" on their DL so they'll have to cheat (like OSU/Illinois cheated) by stacking the box to do it. They've shown a willingness to do that (e.g., against Texas) so Michigan will likely have to go to Level 2 again.
Maybe not though. In contrast with the Texas game, KSU and Oklahoma were able to run the ball consistently.
If Michigan can't run against stacked boxes it'll be up to JJ to win the game.
Will be interesting how RB personnel are deployed by Michigan. I'm not sure Mullings will be the clear #2 because there's a lot of practice time between the last game and this one. He's not a dynamic runner but seems to be functional as a sledgehammer if TCU doesn't load up. Edwards isn't necessarily the best option to run into stacked boxes either though.
DeleteMichigan may want to take proactive action and challenge TCU deep early in the game.
Not sure I buy the overall theory. Yes, playoff teams are generally good and you are not just going to run all over them. But TCU's defense is at best good and OSU's defense is significantly better than TCU. Not even a comparison to GA last year and not even close to Illinois. I will admit that TCU has a stronger D than Purdue which gave us some problems. Almost any decent defense can slow down a run game if they commit all resources to it (e.g. OSU) but that creates fundamental problems usually, especially in an indoor game when offenses can throw the ball. The question is whether TCU can slow down Michigan's run game without getting fundamentally unsound and I have my doubts about that (although more doubts than if Corum were playing). Or if TCU's offense can play so well early that Michigan gets in a catch-up mode.
Delete"Almost any decent defense can slow down a run game if they commit all resources to it".
DeleteI agree with you Kurt. Iowa refused to do that (play unsound) and got run over, even though they are an elite D. OSU did -- and shut down our run game while doing it.
We needed JJ to make them pay for being unsound. He did it there (against OSU) but didn't against Illinois, having his worst passing day of the season. Maybe it was on the receivers and maybe just a coincidence that it happened when Illinois has one of the best CBs in the country. But I think it's related to the personnel that Illinois had - they were ready to answer Level 2 while OSU was not.
I'd say that if Illinois had TCU's offense they probably win that game. But they don't, obviously. I also agree that TCU doesn't have Illinois defense (or Iowas or Penn States or even OSUs). I share your doubts about TCU's defense being up to the job without being unsound. That's why I am guessing they will take that gamble, and try to force JJ to beat them. It worked for Illinois against Michigan and it worked for TCU against Texas. Maybe they get OSU'd, or maybe they get the version off JJ that Illinois saw.
I don't think they'll do what PSU or Iowa did and let Michigan run on them. Maybe they will try under the thinking that with Corum out Michigan's run game isn't as potent, but we saw how that worked out for OSU (2nd half) and Purdue. Good luck.
I think Illinois and first half OSU show the formula for TCU's best chance of beating Michigan -- stop the run, make JJ make you pay, hope he has an off day. It might not work but it's probably the best bet for a defense that doesn't have elite DL talent.
M is going to run all over them. TCU doesn't belong in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteI don't think TCU is one of the four best teams, but I think they deserve to be there. Alabama is a better team and would probably beat the pants off TCU. In fact, I think a few SEC teams would beat TCU, as well as Penn State, Ohio State, and maybe USC (with a healthy Caleb Williams).
DeleteMaybe you deserve because they would bring a different conference outside the SEC and BIG10. But i thought the playoffs us supposed to be the 4 best teams .It never has been since the first year.
DeleteThe cool thing about CFB is that the results of the regular season matter.
DeleteIf results don't matter, the plaoff would be Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson and Michigan would be out. That would make a lot of people happy it seems, but I suggest they go and watch the NFL if they just want all the "best" teams in the playoff.
Alabama's best win of the season is a one-point nail-biter over Texas. They did not beat anyone with a winning record in conference. Even though they dodged playing the best team in the conference. They did not win the division let alone the conference. Their best argument boils down to - "the few times we played anyone good our losses were close" Even if you go by analytics it's not clear they are better than Tennessee or Texas.
Alabama doesn't deserve it. So who does?
Nobody. Only 2 teams have a legitimate case to make for deserving the championship. The playoff is unnecessarily large again.
The thing is that I don't think TCU is one of the four best teams, but I know Alabama isn't national championship-worthy because they lost to two teams that aren't even in the top four. Maybe TCU will surprise in the playoffs and prove us wrong.
DeletePlayoffs are about proving it one way or the other. Alabama already proved what they are. USC already proved what they are. Georgia and Michigan have already proved that they're top-4 caliber because they've won every game and beaten other top teams.
TCU's only loss was to a team they already beat once.
Interesting. I think this is a year where BCS 1v2 is the best approach. With 3 teams in though, TCU's record makes them the no sh:t pick ...
Delete4 is a tough one. I don't think Bama, ohio, Clemson, SC or any other team has a strong argument. Lank talked about Bama, but even ohio isn't worthy, after getting punked on their home turf. Alas, someone has to be there ...
I get what Anon 1123 is saying though. While TCU had the better record & is objectively more deserving, who can stop MICHIGAN? I think it goes something like: UGa, and then ohio & Bama. That doesn't mean we couldn't win, but Ian Boyd's theory applies to these three programs, loaded w/elite talent
TCU is not one of the 4 best. I think few (outside their fanbase) would argue otherwise. They probably are one of the 4 most deserving. It can be debated, but few teams have wins as impressive.
DeleteResume wins against top 10 "best" teams:
Michigan: PSU and OSU
TCU: Texas and KSU
OSU: PSU
Georgia: Tennessee
Alabama: Texas
To be fair to Georgia they have a couple wins (against Oregon and LSU) that are just outside of the top 10.
I would argue that the regular season should be about "proving it one way or the other". Anything can happen in a single game - why look at 1 or 2 games when you have 12?
DeleteMichigan already "proved it" against OSU. Why should they have to again? Those teams could play 20 times and win 10 each. Or they could play 20 times and Michigan wins 18 and OSU wins 2. What does 2 prove better than 1? If OSU wins we prove we don't know who is better. If Michigan wins we just prove what we already proved.
IMO, Georgia and Michigan proved they are the two most deserving teams already. They won their conferences and they avoided losing any games. OSU lost to Michigan at home. TCU squeaked by in a half dozen coin-flip games and then lost their conference championship game. Even if OSU and TCU win 2 more games they won't be better or more deserving than UM or Georgia given what happened in the regular season.
If we want to take it even further we don't really need to play these games at all. We all know Georgia is the best team. Something random can happen and OSU, UM, or TCU can knock them off but Georgia is still going to rank out as the best team on paper on a down by down basis and Georgia is still going to be the favorite in a hypothetical rematch with a team they lost to.
Maybe there should just be a 4-team tournament to figure out who the second "best" team is with UM, Alabama, OSU, and Tennessee. Nevermind that 2 of the games might be rematches - results don't matter - we just want the best. Well, second best.
Delete"TCU's only loss was to a team they already beat once."
But they lost to them on a neutral field.
I think MICHIGAN wins convincingly, but TCU's best shot is exactly what Dyke's is saying: sell out against our run and force the Jim Harbaugh offense to make plays
ReplyDeleteThere's only a few who I think can pull that off though, and the Horned Frogs will need help (a bad day for us)
I agree. I don't think they have a choice. You can't go against Michigan and say "We're gonna stop the pass." You have to try to stop something.
DeleteYep. OSU's gameplan made sense. But once JJ made them pay they backed off and even a run game with the top 2 RBs hurt was able to gash them -- and their front 6 is a lot better than TCU's.
DeleteTCU can try to play the pass honestly but Michigan's OL is too good.
TCU is going to get Trucked. I think they have to score in into the 40's to have a chance, and try to win 45-42. Or, hope for 4-5 TO's. I give them a one chance in three.
ReplyDeleteUSC? They got blasted by Utah, twice
DeleteNah, SC isn't ready for this level just yet
I think people overthink this. With VERY RARE exception, teams that fail to win their conference don't belong in a playoff.
DeleteThe conference, in this case the Pac 12, should put forth their best candidate and if that's not their conference champ, that's on them.
This year it should just be the Big Ten and SEC champs in the playoff. Nobody else deserves it.
The Big Ten has a clear champ and the runner up is not deserving of a national championship. Period.
The SEC has a clear champ and it's their own damn fault for not setting up a game between the two "best" teams.
The Big 12 didn't need a championship game but had one anyway. TCU lost after ALMOST losing a half dozen other times and thus isn't a deserving champion either. It's hard to tell who the most deserving team in this conference is and that's on them for being so poorly organized. No wonder their two best programs are leaving.
The Pac 12 got it right - their "best" team is also their champion. Utah isn't as good as Alabama but had a similar season, their best case beyond beating USC is that they lost narrowly. They don't deserve to be champs either, but if there is a playoff of conference winners they would deserve the spot.
Clemson is trash but they have a better case for deserving a championship shot than anyone from the Big 12 or Pac 12.
Yes - that includes the best team last year. They didn't deserve their national championship because they lost to Alabama on a neutral field. That should have been that.
DeleteOne thing is clear, TCU lost in a championship game. They did not earn the right to play for the National Championship. They are not a Championship caliber team. You can argue till you're blue in the face. It can't change that TCU lost in their Conference Championship to a team that lost at home to Tulane. The Big12 is not as good as the BIG10 or SEC. And the team that finished 2nd in the Big12 is in the playoffs. That makes no sense no matter how you slice it.
DeleteIt doesn't make sense but the funny thing is that people seem to be inventing all kinds of ways to pretend that it will if we just add X or change Y or address Z. It can never make sense for every situation that would arise. There are too many teams and too few games. That's what makes it chaotic and fun -- it doesn't have to "make sense".
DeleteWe had the BCS (2-team playoff) and that mostly worked. Now we have a 4-team playoff that mostly works. But we're going to a 12 team playoff for some reason. CFB is way more popular and lucrative than ever. It ain't broke but here we are trying to fix it anyway.
More often than not, you don't need more than 1 game to decide a worthy champion after the regular season is done. All we're doing is adding randomness and devaluing the regular season.
I've seen speculation on what a 12-team playoff would have looked like this year:
College Football Playoff
First round
Game 1: (9) Kansas State at (8) Tennessee
Game 2: (12) Tulane at (5) TCU
Game 3: (10) USC at (7) Alabama
Game 4: (11) Penn State at (6) Ohio State
Quarterfinals
Game 5: (1) Georgia vs. Game 1 winner
Game 6: (4) Utah vs. Game 2 winner
Game 7: (2) Michigan vs. Game 3 winner
Game 8: (3) Clemson vs. Game 4 winner
Do we really need the 3rd place Big Ten team that got trounced by OSU and Michigan in a playoff tournament? Do we really need USC and Utah to both be there? Maybe 3rd time will be the charm for USC if they rematch yet again. Are the Joe Milton-led Volunteers really a worthy potential champ?
I get the argument that more good games are better than fewer good games, but I absolutely hate the idea that regular season games like PSU's loss at home to OSU are irrelevant. It takes away one of the best parts of college football -- the drama and urgency of every game - the playoff chase starts in September and lasts into January.
I don't know why people aren't paying attention to the obvious contrast with college basketball, let alone NBA, NFL, etc. Great playoffs, very fun to watch, but ho hum regular season that you can spend most of the year ignoring. College bball holds your attention for 1 or 2 months. College football holds it for 3 or 4.
TCU earned it. They got lucky in 4-5 games they should have lost but won, but they did win it and who is to say they can't keep getting lucky. UM has gotten lucky by getting what should be a 9-4 team in the playoffs and need to win this game. GA, the number 1 seed, has the harder path.
ReplyDeleteDidn't even win their conference. They do not deserve a national championship. Even if they pull off a playoff upset.
DeleteI don't know how you can argue that they deserve it because ultimately they won games they shouldn't when they also went out and lost in their conference championship game.
Michigan isn't "lucky" because they already beat OSU. OSU is lucky to be in the playoff at all. Georgia got unlucky this year, having to play a very good team that doesn't deserve to be in the playoff. Same thing happened to Michigan last year.
The playoff should be a 2 team playoff this year, but if we're picking from the also rans to force a 4-team playoff, Georgia and Michigan should be battling with other conference champs (e.g., Utah, Kanas State, Clemson, Tulane) not these teams that are supposed to be potentially the best team nationally yet were not determined to be the best even within their regional conference.
TCU lost in their Conference Championship. They did not earn the right to go to an even tougher level of competition. Their loss in the Conference Championship disqualified them from going to the next level. But they have only 1 loss. So they get in.
DeleteComparing losses is a terrible way to evaluate IMO. By that logic Cincinnati and University of Louisiana had better seasons than Alabama and Michigan last year.
DeleteI think "winning your conference" is kind of a moot point when you already beat the team that you played in the conference championship. Plus in basketball, there are two conference champions - the regular season champion and the tournament champion.
DeleteTCU won its conference - they were 9-0, including a win over Kansas State.
They lost the 1-game conference tournament to a team that was 7-2 in the Big 12.