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| Thomas Rawls (#38) |
Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Russell Bellomy. The offense really seemed to be limited when he entered the game early. Here's hoping that Denard Robinson can heal from that hand injury and stay healthy for the rest of the season. I'd prefer not to see Bellomy until Michigan is blowing out the opponent.
Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Marvin Robinson. Jordan Kovacs seems to be nursing a bit of an injury, and Robinson was flying around the field when he entered the game. Kovacs played well and Illinois never really tested the safeties, but Robinson seems quite capable of supporting the run. Hopefully Robinson is to the point where he can spell Kovacs a little bit, because someone needs to be groomed for the starting spot once Kovacs graduates.
Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . nobody. The defense allowed 134 yards and gave up zero points. The only thing that really bugged me on "defense" was Josh Furman's moronic personal foul when he ran into the punt returner way too early, but Furman rarely plays defense, anyway.
Play of the game . . . Denard Robinson's 49-yard touchdown run. It was a thing of beauty. He danced around the tackles of about four guys and then exploded down the left sideline. It was especially fun to watch Illinois defensive tackle Glenn Foster "fall" while chasing him because he knew that chasing Denard would be a waste of energy.
MVP of the game . . . Denard Robinson once again. He was 7/11 passing for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also ran the ball 11 times for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn't turn over the ball. When he temporarily got hurt early in the game, the offense bogged down and the entire fan base got scared, including me. This team will really struggle if he's unavailable.
Well...I'll say it: Fitz should be benched.
ReplyDeleteStart Rawls and see if that lights a fire under Toussaint's a**. Unfortunately, I don't think it is a lack of enthusiasm on Toussaint's part, he just doesn't seem to "have it" this year. He couldn't even do much of anything (less than 4.0 ypc) against freaking Illinois.
The only issue I see with benching Toussaint for Rawls is that Rawls hasn't exactly lit the world on fire against quality opponents, either. Outside of Denard, I'm not sure we have a runner who can succeed against decent defenses.
DeleteUGH - really? If you put Rawls in against Illinois starting D (which isn't a bad run defense) then you get meager production too. Rawls carried it 7 times for 26 yards till the 63 yarder, which came late in the 4th quarter of a blowout. If the refs call one of the holds that happened on that play or if Rawls' foot lands an inch to the right, no one is making these kind of bone-headed 'observations'. Mike Cox, anyone? Let's not totally ignore level of difficulty here. Illinois just wanted to go home by that point.
DeleteRawls has looked good in late game situation - his spirit and physical style go over especially well in those spots - and deserves more carries, but he's not better than Toussaint. These coaches aren't idiots. Toussaint didn't become a bad runner in the offseason. He won the job then and he won it again in pre-season camp. Coaches are not infallible, but fans who think they know more based on watching a performance against a crappy and disinterested team are a joke.
7 carries for 26 yards is still a better average than 3.4 yards per carry, which was Toussaint's production. And in my opinion, Toussaint has more potential than Rawls...but Toussaint just isn't playing well.
DeleteI don't think you bench him completely, because it's not like he's turning over the ball or getting penalties. He's not really hurting the team...he's just not helping much at this point.
Yeah - it's 3.7 -- earthshaking. 7 for 26 and 18 for 62 are not significantly different. You might as well argue about a coin landing tails more often than heads. If you're parsing results like that, you're grasping for straws. Especially when you can toss in the difference in receiving yards and negate the whole thing. Exclude the 63 yarder and Rawls had 3.7 yards per touch and Toussaint had 4.1.
DeleteAnyway - the point is WHEN Fitz is getting his carries - against a 1st team defense, with the game still to be decided.
That is when the OL has been unable to provide consistent blocking.
Rawls got carries early in this game, just like fans wanted. His first half runs went for: 3, 3, 6, and 4 yards. This is indistinguishable from Toussaint. To Rawls' credit, that is evidence that he has narrowed the gap that existed last year...but still zero in the way of proof that he is better than Toussaint. If he's breaking 63 yarders to take a lead against MSU while Toussaint struggles - I'll hop on the bandwagon. Until then, I'm firmly in the camp of the guy who has proven he is better in the long run and has earned the coaches trust.
I would say that he has marginalized Smith, who really should just be used in his nice 3rd-down/blocking-back/pass-catcing back role at this point.
@Thunder,
DeleteSo you don't think if Toussaint was in during garbage time, he would have racked up similarly impressive yardage against a disinterested 2nd-string Illinois D?
Obviously we don't KNOW, but you acknowledge that the situational difficulty there is rather different right?
I mean, even in this game, Rawls did much better when Michigan had built up a big lead.
I'm not saying that at all. What I'm saying is that they're both producing pretty equally. You might as well give both of them reps and see which one takes the lead.
DeleteIf a guy is consistenly producing even in "garbage" time, he still deserves at least a shot in prime time. Reminds of Jake Ryan when he first started to get noticed. Many people where downplaying his good plays, "all he can do is rush" or "he was going against a back-up lineman." You will never know until you give the guy a shot.
DeleteGetting "a shot" is fine. Given Rawls got carries in the 1st half this game, I'd say he is already getting that shot. Plus he played against Alabama, for what that was worth.
DeleteIt's the people saying Rawls should start and Fitz should get benched that I take dispute with.
Garbage time production is necessary, but not sufficient, to prove you should be elevated above a starter.
@Lanko:
DeleteWhat gives you the right to ridicule other UM fans by calling their opinions "bone-headed" simply because you disagree? This seems to be a common occurrence with you. Your opinions are no better than mine...just different.
Try being a little more civil when expressing disagreement in the future, please.
I don't think it's common at all, but sorry.
DeleteDenard's run was a gorgeous thing and Norfleet's punt return was big fun, but I really like Josh Furman decking their return guy for play of the game.
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't malicious, or even mean spirited, he just finished his tackle despite being wrong on a near epic level.
What the Hell, if you're gonna brainfart go big and above all finish the play.
I agree. It looked like Furman was trying to time his tackle to hit right on the catch and jar the ball loose, but he outran the punt because's a freak of nature in a straight line. Furman also clearly knew what he did after the play.
DeleteThere's also no difference in that penalty whether you lightly brush the jersey of the returner or bludgeon him to the ground, so might as well go for the latter if you're already screwed.
The snap clearly shook Bellomy up and he did look way tentative on his little run, but he did hit two guys in the hands.
ReplyDeleteA couple catches for positive yards might have helped there in a big way.
I can agree with your assessment. This team is starting to click right now and I am not sure that there are a lot of teams out there that would want to play them this minute. Let's hope this carries over to MSU. I am really concerned that Bellomy is so green right now. I know he is not Denard and that we cannot expect the same things from him, but he is looking like a guy who is adjusting to the speed of the game still. Saturday was an awful day for a quarterback who is not a runner to try and come in and do his thing. Dropped balls and game adjustment seemed to haunt him.
ReplyDeleteAs for the running back situation......I think you give them both the ball. Heck even throw Hayes in there for a good measure and see who gets the hot hand for the day. Toussaint clearly has either a lost step or a mental issue when it comes to the game this year. I also know that it is hard to see a pattern when you have a quarterback who can pull the hand-off and take it himself at any moment.
I don't think Hayes has shown enough to earn more carries than what he's already receiving. He hasn't shown a great deal of speed, and he doesn't break tackles. Toussaint, Rawls, and Smith are the only guys right now who really deserve reps on standard plays, with Norfleet perhaps having a Smith or Gallon-like role.
DeleteI don't think beating up on low-level Big 10 teams is impressing too many people outside the Michigan fanbase. It proves this team isn't terrible, but it's not scaring anybody new.
DeleteLet's see more of this guy on Defense: Illinois Wide Receivers. Watching the playback on BTN it was amazing how many 15 yrd slants and 7 yrd quick outs that were dropped despite being delivered in the numbers. Illinois still would have lost, but they made our D look a lot better than it was.
ReplyDeleteI could watch replays of Denard's 49 yard run all day. You really never see a player with elite jets have anywhere near the patience of Denard. The guy just sets up blocks like a virtuoso. It's going to feel strange not having him around next year. And the difference is going to be stark because UM does not have any fast, elusive runners to help pick up the slack - at least from the running game. The offense is going to make a transition from Denard's sizzle to something more like Wisconsin in one off-season.
ReplyDeleteAgree with your point Smurf, that we face a rough transition from Denard's talents, but we're not going to be a power run team for a couple more years because you need an OL that can play that game to execute it. Miller, Bryant, and Schofield were recruited by Rodriguez and Burzynski is a walk-on. Those guys are probably 4 of the 5 starters along the line next year.
DeleteWisconsin has built up up large, veteran, experienced OLs and can plug in pretty much any back and make it go. They created a machine where they can just swap out the parts. Michigan will have no offensive-line experience, is trying to change it's offensive philosophy on-the-fly, and will probably have a spread-oriented running QB (Gardner)....so not like Wisconsin at all.
Even with spread blockers like Omameh and Barnum in there, UM's OL is improving at power blocking and pulling. They were terrible at it last year, but there is significant improvement this year. It's to a point where they flip back and forth and can be effective at both. Swap in for those two a couple OG's like Kalis and Bryant (or even Braden or Bosch) in 2013, and you are filling in road graders that Borges craves. They may not be great at it in 2013, but it will probably suit the majority of the OL's talents nonetheless. Lewan is very good either way. Schofield is mediocre either way. Don't know much about Miller, but I am not convinced he is the starter next year but a good center can certainly handle power blocking.
DeleteRegardless, an even bigger factor in style may be the QB. Bellomy and even Gardner are better suited for pro-style than predominant zone-read, IMO. They can both run it, but it won't be a staple like now. Neither on is a guy you zone-read 30 snaps a game, anyway. So that's why I see UM making a major shift in the direction of Borges ball next year.
I don't think Burzynski will be a starter. And Bryant was recruited by Rodriguez, yes, but he committed to Hoke. The coaches were still hard after him, and he's clearly a decent fit (physically) for a power running offensive line. It's not like he was a 260-pounder that Rodriguez wanted to bulk up. He showed up at Michigan weighing 340 lbs. and is known as a very good drive blocker.
DeleteBurzynski seemed to beat out Bryant and Kalis this season. I don't know why that would be different next year. They may need him at OC, I guess, but he's the 6th best linemen on a team that likely loses it's top 4 guys. I guess some of the underclassmen could take big steps forward, but I'm not going to assume veterans are going to get leapfrogged, especially with experience being so limited next year.
DeleteA lot of guys are good for any system - I think Bryant could fit into that category, but he hasn't played a down yet and his problem has been too much weight. Another year off probably isn't going to help that.
I don't see why anyone would still think Gardner is better suited to pro-style. His best asset is his legs, and he's going to be a threat much in the same way Braxton Miller is. Yeah, he's a better pro-style fit than Denard, because he improvises (scrambles) better from the pocket, but a spread-oriented scheme is how you best utilize a QB's legs. We don't need to run the zone read 30 times a game, but we can still run it 10-15 with Gardner at the helm. I've said it before, but I think we're going to see a gradual evolution, not a wholesale change - which is preferable anyway, retaining some familiarity for the players and it keeps us 'multiple'.
Bellomy is fine, but I'd be surprised if he beats out a talent like Gardner. Obviously, Gardner's move to WR helps Bellomy, but Gardner has beaten him out the last 2 years and he probably will again, IMO. Gardner's not going to run for 120 yards a game every week, but he can ran for 40-60 consistently and keep a lot of drives alive with his feet. We're going to need that next year. Then Bellomy and Morris can duke it out in 2014, when we should have the Kalis class coming into their own and the Kugler class ready to contribute (as RS FR) - i.e., the running game should be the primary threat with the QB's job being more 'game manager' than 'playmaker'.
It will be a huge switch watching Michigan play football post-Denard. He's one of the best athletes in the country and when he makes big plays it's usually due his freak athleticism being such an unfair mismatch. Next year we turn from a home run threat on every play, to efficiency- good decision making- and a bit of a chess-match on offense. I like our chances of success next year, but it's going to be very different than Denard making plays.
DeleteI think Burzynski beat out Kalis because he's older and has had more time in the offense. Kalis is going to be scary with a year learning the system and in a college S&C program. I think the Oline next year will look like Schofield-Kalis-Miller-Bosch-Braden. Bosch and Braden are my dark horses... Braden due to the rave reviews he's getting from practice and Bosch due to the fact that he's enrolling early and already has the size. I'm skeptical on Bryant due to the injury and I don't think Burzynski will ever be good enough to start. I think the spring talk of him was just that.. talk, and he never actually challenged for a starting spot.
DeleteThunder -
ReplyDeleteI love your blog and your opinions/insight, even when I don't agree with them. In this case, however, I feel the need to respond regarding Bellomy.
The guy came in cold when Denard got hurt and they immediately gave him two passing plays in the series, which is unusual. The first play was one of those flawed naked-bootlegs that don't work when Denard is your QB because the D has been coached to ignore the RB. That happened to script and Bellomy had a defender in his face immediately, though he still got the ball off while being crushed and hit Funchess in the hands. DROP. The next play was a critical third down that hit Roundtree in the numbers. DROP.
On the next series they got the ball inside the 5 yard line, brought in 6 offensive linemen, and were calling three straight runs no matter what the ILL defense did. I honestly don't see how any of those plays allow us to make a negative commentary on Bellomy. Perhaps you didn't care for his play when the benches were empty, but when he came into the game while it was still in doubt I think you either give him some credit or give him an "incomplete".
AC1997
Bellomy has not been very good in any performance yet. He's just not very smooth at running the offense, and he has yet to try pushing the ball down the field. It's not just about Illinois; it's about the other games, the spring game, etc. He's just not ready. I want to see less of him because that means Denard is hurt. (Unless it means we're blowing out the other team, which is fine.)
DeleteI have never nor will I ever understand the love affair with Russell Bellomy. This is happening in full force over on the board at MGoBlog. The guy is not ready by any stretch, and you know what? He might never be. Yet people were still calling for his number during Notre Dame, and there were even a couple of dudes on Saturday who thought Bellomy should start against MSU.
DeleteI just don't get it. The guy may be okay down the road, but right now, Bellomy is unplayable in crunch time.
Agreed, BlastBeat88. I do like Bellomy as a player down the road. I could even see him starting in 2014 and/or 2015, depending on how Shane Morris develops. But here in 2012, he's a subpar player. And that's fine, because he's just a redshirt freshman.
DeleteIt did not help that our receivers hands turned to bricks when he came in, I counted 3 well thrown balls that hit the wr right where they needed to that were dropped. Roundtree's drop was terrible.
DeleteI agree. Bellomy is a very typical UM QB. He could be very good down the road, but he's not going to win games as a RS FR, maybe even as a RS SO. He should evolve into a good QB as an upperclassmen. But right now, if Denard goes down for an extended period...I think you'll see Devin move back.
DeleteRawls and Hayes may have gotten their yardage after Illinois gave up, but that was also with the second string offensive line. Our 2nd string O line has 4 walk-ons and a redshirt freshman who was a Big East caliber recruit.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I don't think we can totally dismiss his performance late in the game. But we also can't put too much weight on that. It should just be taken with a grain of salt.
DeleteHayes and fleet should be getting more touches hayes look good saturday n norfleet you never know when he can get a hole and take it all the way okus they brinf some speed to the running game which keep defense guessing a little maybe 10 touches in the running game for those 2
ReplyDeleteHayes looked mediocre and fumbled the ball without getting touched. He has decent speed and doesn't break tackles. He'll be okay down the road as a backup, but Toussaint/Rawls are a good ways ahead of him. Norfleet has the potential for big plays, but his ceiling on offense is Vincent Smith-but-faster.
DeleteNorfleet will continue to get looks at RB, is my guess. His ceiling is Darren Sproles-but-taller. I kid...Sproles is a freak amongst freaks...but Vincent Smith-but-faster sounds pretty damn amazing to me. Norfleet is the kind of talent that they'll continue to find ways to get the ball in his hands.
DeleteHaven't seen Hayes do anything special yet, but he looked potentially capable down the road.
My guess is either Marvin Robinson finally "gets it" and matures enough in his 4th year at Michigan to take over for Kovacs, or Jarrod Wilson develops enough that Thomas Gordon slides over to play Strong Safety full time as a 5th year senior (he's been doing double duty already.)
ReplyDeleteDymonte Thomas is enrolling early and the kid is a freak of nature. What do you think the odds are of him coming in and starting next to Gordon? I know Wilson has had some hiccups as a freshman, but he's no Thomas.
DeleteI don't like the idea of playing freshman safeties, at least not in a starting role. I think it's more likely that we see some combination of Thomas Gordon, Marvin Robinson, and Jarrod Wilson starting.
DeleteFitz's numbers against the 4 mediocre to bad run defenses he has started against this season:
ReplyDeleteAir Force (allowing 5.0 ypc on season): 8 carries, 7 yards, 0.9 ypc, longest run 5 yards
UMass (allowing 5.5 ypc on season): 15 carries, 85 yards, 5.7 ypc, longest run 13 yards
Purdue (allowing 5.0 ypc on season): 17 carries, 19 yards, 1.1 ypc, longest run 6 yards
Illinois (allowing 4.2 ypc on season): 18 carries, 62 yards, 3.4 ypc, longest run 12 yards
Combined totals: 58 carries, 173 yards, 3.0 ypc, longest run 13 yards
That is my basis for why it is time to sit Fitz for a game. He simply isn't doing anything against anyone (other than UMass who is essentially an FCS team), even against the woeful Minutemen his longest carry in 15 attempts was only 13 yards.
Fitz has had more than an adequate time frame to justify his role as a starter and has simply failed to deliver. Rawls might not fare any better in a starting role, but we already know (with empirical data) that Fitz isn't getting the job done, even against bad teams. Might as well give someone else a chance to see what they can do.
Football isn't tennis. there are times to blame the individual, but a RB is constrained by what the OL and OC give him.
DeleteRawls hasn't done any better in meaningful situations. He deserves more of a chance based on what he showed us late in blowouts? Sure - and he's getting it.
Don't assume the coaches are idiots.