Former Texas Tech quarterback Alan Bowman announced on Twitter that he is transferring to Michigan.
Bowman was a product of Grapevine (TX) Grapevine in the 2018 class, ranked as a 3-star, the #37 pro-style quarterback, and #899 overall. (Note: Joe Milton was the #9 pro-style QB in that class.) Aside from Texas Tech, he also had offers from the likes of Cincinnati, Illinois, SMU, some Ivy League schools, etc.
Hit the jump for more.
Throughout his high school career, Bowman was an ultra-productive quarterback. He completed 855/1275 passes for 11,393 yards, 119 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions.
He stepped in at Texas Tech and started most of the season as a true freshman, completing 227/327 (69.4%) of his passes for 2,638 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He followed that up by completing 101/154 passes (65.6%) for 1,020 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while losing time to Jett Duffey. Then in 2020 he completed 150/232 passes (64.7%) for 1,602 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Altogether, he's a guy who completes a lot of passes for 33 touchdowns and 17 touchdowns so far.
Not to scare anyone, but the last QB transfer from the state of Texas - John O'Korn - had a very similar TD-to-INT rate with 34 touchdowns and 18 interceptions at Houston.
I have two somewhat diverging thoughts on Bowman's commitment:
- Bowman is a low-ceiling prospect without much arm strength or running ability. He's kind of like Shea Patterson without the mobility.
- This is a pretty substantial land for Michigan, who desperately needed depth at quarterback. They get a veteran quarterback with three years of significant playing experience. Beggars can't be choosers. The other options are a third-year Cade McNamara, who got hurt pretty much immediately; a first-year 5-star in J.J. McCarthy; and a second-year Dan Villari, who nobody expects to ever have a significant role behind center.
I may do a more in-depth breakdown of Bowman's play later, though I'm not sure how useful that would be. A two-way battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton forced me to parse things last year, but this now looks like a bit of a crap shoot.
I would not be surprised to see Bowman/McNamara start the 2021 season and then eventually be replaced by McCarthy.
So is Cade McNamara going to end up transferring?
ReplyDeleteNo surprise if he does.
It's 2021. The guy who doesn't get the start is likely to move on. I know it hurts some fans' feelings, but it's what the kids want. Some aren't good enough; some lack the patience ... some both. But as Thunder stated in a post 2+ years ago, it's getting more & more rare to see a scholarship QB stick around five years, without ever starting
DeleteAs for Cade, he's got a tough challenge: not only does Bowman offer the accuracy & consistency that helped him bench Milton last year, but going JJ will be on his heels
If I had to predict (because that's what happens on message boards), I'd say Harbaugh goes with the experience, and "if" injuries come up, JJ steps in ... the writing will be on the wall, and we lose another QB
Modern college football 🤷🏽♂️
I don't hink Bowman is an issue for NcNamara. I do think McCarthy is. I think the new QB coach will be focusing on McCarthy. If McNamara was smart he'd enter the transfer portal now.
DeleteCareful Joe, some fans will accuse you of bashing Mcnamara ...
DeleteKid is a competitor, and should work through spring & fall camp before making a decision. That's what was so weird about Mccaffrey - he left before the competition started, despite what appeared to be an advantage
I'm hopeful for JJ, but history suggests he'll need time (esp under Harbaugh)
You can trust Im a huge fan of Cade McNamara. I hope he can hold off McCarthy and keep the starting job.
DeleteIf the last few years have taught us anything it is that speculation is usually wrong. Always wrong at QB? Well - Patterson did end up being a pretty good QB so we have that. Anyway, if some know-nothing tells you one guy is likely to be gone and another isn't you'll likely be able to prove him easily wrong - even if he won't admit it. Some people are too dumb to be humbled.
ReplyDeleteAnyway -- Expect the unexpected.
The other thing it taught us is that transfers are very very likely with the guys who fall behind. The cycle of irrational emotions, hype, hope, disappointment and good-riddance--transfers at Michigan is into round whatever. QB today looks a lot more like RB looked in the 90s. Except now we have grad transfers added on top of it. Everybody knows transfers are common and no one denies it, because it's obvious.
-------------------
Anyway, on with some know-nothing speculation that isn't worth a damn. My personal opinion at the moment is that Bowman is going to win out. The more I read the more encouraged I am, and I was already impressed from watching Bowman at TTU. Accuracy, intelligence, leadership. This is what matters most - not Milton's rocket arm or McCaffrey's 40 time or Peters height or Morris' ability to recruit in state.
McNamara wasn't very good last year. While he'll still be a junior in '21 the competition is about to ramp up. Let's remember he failed to beat out Milton in practice (and probably McCaffrey too though there's retroactive buzz otherwise). He only came in when Milton struggled badly. Set aside Rutgers (where we all felt some emotion), McNamara was 16 for 35 for 165 yards and 1 TD. Woof. That's what happens when your opponent is Wisconsin instead of a B1G tomato can. We can't really credibly argue that Harbaugh is going to develop him into a much better player - but he might. For now there's a lot of parallels with McNamara 20 and Peters 17. Hopefully it ends better for him. But also remember to expect the unexpected - we can't rule out a career mediocrity breaking out in his 5th year into a pretty solid QB (hello Jake Rudock).
Sometimes this narrative emerges where a guy is young because he doesn't play and old because he does. Bowman and McNamara are one year apart.
For Michigan, the best case scenario is McCarthy being THE ONE. But chances are Tua or Trevor aren't walking through that tunnel.
Villari - who knows! Brady Henne Speight were all expected to be career backups behind other guys for a long time and then emerged as quality starters on excellent teams.
But again, I see Bowman as the most likely option. He could be our Joe Burrow.
-Lank
I appreciate you both, je93 and Lank, but I start to get fed up when the discussion turns to name calling. I'm all for calling people out for being wrong, changing their tune without admitting it, debates, etc. But when it comes to just flat-out insulting each other (loser, stupid, etc.), I don't think this is the place for that. So don't be surprised if comments like that get deleted (which some in this thread will be momentarily).
ReplyDeleteI endorse this approach. Looking forward to talking football instead of being dragged into middle school level exchanges. Boring anyway.
Delete-Lank
Shrugging arms emoji at the on-brand responses to "cut it out guys"
ReplyDeleteA: This stuff is childish and boring.
B: I find it funny. Here's more of the same.
-Lank
No football so I'll give my golf take. Par for the course.
ReplyDelete-Lank
Any news on the 3 star 335 lbs DT that got offered 3 days ago?
ReplyDeleteIm trying remember his name.?
Also, is there any news on Peter Taoipu, 2022 DT, 6'5", 350 lbs? He has an offer from Michigan. Is there any news you know as to where he's leaning?
ReplyDeleteLink to the 247 about him:
Deletehttps://247sports.com/Recruitment/Peter-Taoipu-126025/RecruitInterests/
I haven't heard much about Taoipu's interest level in Michigan or leanings. I have very little faith that Michigan can pull a guy from the State of Washington, though, let alone keep him in the program for long. Other than a walk-on or two, Michigan hasn't landed anyone from Washington in about 15 years.
DeleteAlright.
DeleteRegarding Bowman's ceiling. I think it's quite high - potentially an all conference level.
ReplyDeleteBowman has a couple 5 TD games, a 600 yard passing day and a couple more 400 yarders under his belt already. Admittedly again weak competition but those translate easily to a 300 yard day against Rutgers. If you're impressed by one, might as well be impressed by the other.
More impressive to me is that Bowman's had some very nice days against very good opponents too. 80% completion percentage against Oklahoma as a freshman. Toe to toe in a shootout with Ehlinger and Texas last year. He can be hyper efficient. He can put up big numbers.
Of course there's been clunkers too but we're talking about a ceiling not a floor. Bowman's dealt with a lot of injuries and Texas Tech's offense puts a lot on QBs. Put Michigan's skill position talent around him and I think he can put up some big numbers.
Based on the limited sample we saw from McCaffrey and McNamara, I definitely see more upside in Bowman. Health is a big worry and he'll always have to rely on accuracy and smarts to compensate for not having a Milton-level arm or McCaffrey level legs but we didn't fret about arm strength with McCaffrey so I don't see why we should now.
Set aside the star ratings and Bowman compares favorably to most of the transfers coming in or out of Michigan in the last few years (Milton, McCaffrey, Peters, Speight, OKorn, Rudock). The exception was Patterson, who was seen as a star.
Comparison to Shea Patterson (post-career) is something I see pretty favorably, even if he can't run like him. Patterson had the best passing season of the Harbaugh era (150 PER in 2018) and even in 2019 he was zipping the ball around once the Gattis offense found it's footing. Bowman hit 150 as a freshman on over 300 attempts despite rotating with another guy.
Yes, he offers depth. Yes, he can smooth the transition to a hot shot freshman. What I think is getting lost in the narrative is that this could very well be THE guy for Michigan. Not because others have faltered but because he is legit the kind of QB Michigan needs; accurate, smart, tough. Keep in mind Bowman came in the same class as McCaffrey -- there's plenty of time to hit the untapped parts of his skillset.
There's a viable path to excellence, IMO. Doesn't mean we should EXPECT it but that goes for recruits too.
-Lank