Name: Donovan Edwards
Height: 6'1”
Weight: 204 lbs.
High school: West Bloomfield (MI) West Bloomfield
Position: Running back
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked Edwards #36b and said he would be a backup running back (LINK). He ran 35 times for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns; caught 20 passes for 265 yards and 1 touchdown; and completed 1 pass for a 75-yard touchdown.
TTB Rating: 90
Edwards didn't do much at the beginning of his 2021 season, aside from running away from Northern Illinois. In fact, for the entire season, he only averaged over 4.0 yards per carry three times - against Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Ohio State (the last of which included just 1 carry for 8 yards). He showed some talent, but he just never quite had that breakdown came.
And then came Maryland. Through ten games, Edwards had 2 catches for 14 yards. And in game eleven against the Terps, Edwards broke out for 10 catches for 170 yards and 1 touchdown. Michigan used him as a fifth receiver, and nobody from Maryland was prepared or able to cover him. It was the best receiving performance from a Michigan running back in school history, and it came for a guy with 2 career catches up to that point. Then a couple weeks later, Michigan used the threat of him to get a touchdown against Ohio State and a double pass to have him throw a 75-yard touchdown to Roman Wilson.
Edwards wasn't exactly flying under the radar coming out of high school, considering he was an elite national recruit. But he's definitely on people's radar now. With Hassan Haskins having gone to the Tennessee Titans, Edwards seems to be in line for a lot more snaps, including more opportunities to run the ball. He was listed at 190 pounds last season and is up to 204, so hopefully he's going to be as durable as possible. His array of skills - running, catching, passing - were on display in high school, and perhaps some were unfamiliar with the fact that he was a Wildcat type quarterback at times in high school, too. It remains to be seen whether he can really run between the tackles with regularity, but he can do a lot of different things. He and Blake Corum should make a nice duo out of Michigan's backfield.
Prediction: Part-time starting running back
"All RBs are good" is the new "RBs don't matter".
ReplyDeleteEdwards did bust out against Maryland but there was a very good reason for that - Corum went down, and he was given the opportunity. This year, likewise, if Edwards goes down someone will step up. Behind this OL - All RBs are good. Behind this OL, a walk-on can produce like Mike Hart (2005 edition ypc at least). Or so we can reasonably expect if Jones and Oluwatimi projections are accurate. This isn't baseless speculation because...
RB isn't ever a problem. Almost every year people fret about RB depth and it's never an issue. (Knock on wood.) The one year where there were some very legitimate concerns after lots of unexpected attrition after 2018, we cobbled together a rotation out of a walk-on, a freshman, and a converted LB -- and they averaged 5 ypc collectively in 2019. It's not just Michigan, the Tennessee Titans lost supposedly the best RB in the NFL and their collection of no name backups produced equivalent production. All RBs are good.
Last year, when Corum went down, people fretted again. When I was talking up how good Edwards was after seeing him produce, even as a freshman, the counter argument was he couldn't run between the tackles. The stats say Edwards was good there too. Via Zach Shaw/247: " According to Pro Football Focus, Corum averaged 6.86 yards per carry on 59 carries between the tackles, while Edwards was 8.0 on 17 carries (though if you take out one 58-yard run, it's 4.88 yards per carry)". Admittedly the coaches modified the playcalling to better suit Edwards - but that seems more a credit than an indictment to me (for Edwards and the coaches, both). All RBs are good.
I bet Stokes or Dunlap can match the above production as ball carriers.
Edwards is very good though - not because he's an exceptional runner - but because he brings that extra element of receiving skill. In 2022 Edwards is one of the best weapons on offense. But we have so many weapons on offense - even more than last year. So, Edwards is a backup or a rotational player at best.
As much as I like him I just can't see putting him ahead of guys who are going to play every meaningful down on the OL and secondary. Contrast the lack of impact when the #2 RB went down last year with what happened when the starting RG went down -- we got upset by an inferior team. Corum got ranked 17 last year when he was RB 1b and I argued that was too high. I think 2021 proved that right. Guys like Keegan, Vastardis, Gray, Hinton, and Ojabo played huge roles in the team's success, in some cases playing every meaningful down of the season. A backup RB should never be this high on the countdown, IMO.
It's a head-scratcher to me that Edwards is labeled a part-time starter. It wouldn't shock me if Michigan started some games in 2-back sets, or if Edwards had to fill in as a starter if Corum goes down but Edwards is clearly a #2 not a #1B.
DeleteLast year's 1B - Corum - didn't start any games, while every other position group save QB had multiple starters. (WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, S, CB all had more starters than spots). If Barnhart, Barrett, Upshaw, Sainristil, Paige, and McCarthy are all backups rather than "part-time starters" I'm not sure why Edwards is labeled this way. Another example - I would guess Will Johnson starts more games than Edwards.
Long story short - RBs are overrated.
DeleteFWIW Zach Shaw at 247 agrees with you. He ranked Edwards at #8 in his version of the countdown! His logic: "he plays a position that can be the difference between a bad, good and great offense at the college level." spits in the face of most analytics and evidence, but I think it's a common misconception.
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/LongFormArticle/Michigan-footballs-25-most-important-players-for-the-2022-season-preview-fall-camp-countdown-192003891/#192003891_14
So the guy who set a school record for running back receptions/yardage in a game, set up a TD against Ohio State, and threw a 75-yard touchdown pass on just 56 total touches as a true freshman isn't important. Gotcha.
DeleteYou said he wasn't a good RB while he was doing that right?
DeleteI generally agree with you against the inferior teams on the schedule (of which there are many). Against the OSU's of the world, having real talent at RB matters. Edwards deserves to be this high for that game alone - his presence made a material difference in our win last year.
ReplyDeleteCould Michigan have won the OSU game without Edwards? Yes! Edwards had 20 yards. Haskins (a 3 star recruit) was the star of the show and Corum chipped in behind him.
DeleteWithout Corum? Very likely. Corum had a big 55 yard run but the previous 2 weeks showed that Haskins and Edwards could handle RB duties.
Without Haskins? That's up for debate - he was the star of the show. But if you're a person who puts a lot of stock into YPC, Haskins' was inferior to Corum and Edwards on the season. Nobody seems too worried about our rushing attack with 'just' those two leading the charge this year - rightfully so.
All RBs are good. CJ Stokes is already making noise!
Completely disagree. Evaluating Edwards's impact by just looking at his rushing / receiving yardage is incredibly short sighted. Is the end around to Henning as effective without the threat of Edwards on the edge? No. You know as well as anyone that football is a chess match and you can't evaluate effectiveness based just on rushing / receiving yards.
DeleteYPC is a useful statistic, but like any statistic, it needs to be evaluated with context. Do I care if a backup RB rips off a 50 yard TD against Eastern Michigan? Not really. But do I think someone like Deveon Smith scores the TD against Washington that Corum does? No. Can Smith turn the corner against OSU's LBs like Corum did? No. These things matter. Not as much as overall offensive line effectiveness, but they matter. The idea that all RBs are good is just ridiculous.
@Anon
DeleteAgree about production not being everything, but the alternative to Edwards isn't playing 10 guys. It's putting somebody else into the game instead. In this case either of the two other top RBs could have been in that role - or Henning with another WR being the ball-carrier. Michigan had the luxury of having a very good 3rd RB and used him - but they didn't have to.
Would the play have not worked with Leon Franklin in the backfield? We don't know because life doesn't work that way but when RBs get hurt it doesn't seem to affect outcomes very much.
I also agree with you about YPC. All RBs are good does not mean all RBs are the same. But the idea that there is going to be any sort of substantial impact if one of them goes down is disproven most every time. There are exceptions, but they are rare. There is a lot of hair-pulling about RB injuries and then...things are fine. Even if we are talking about walk-ons, freshman, or position changes. This is typically NOT true at other positions. It was NOT fine when Nico Collins, Ambry Thomas, and Jalen Mayfield missed all or most of 2020. Things were not fine when Peppers and Butt were hurt and missed the FSU game. But when Michigan unexpectedly lost 3 of it's 4 scholarship RBs after 2018 - no problemo. Next man up.
I am sympathetic to the argument that RBs are more valuable in college than the NFL, especially for teams like Michigan that run a lot. I do think Corum is a top 10 value player on this team. But I think the difference is pretty overstated because rushing production is primarily an OL stat. That's why you tend to see backs with similar YPCs within a season (with one another) more often than you see backs with consistent YPCs across years.
The difference between a good RB and a bad RB might move the needle .1 or .2 yards a carry. We're talking about a handful of yards in a 20 carry game on average. That's based on NFL data so bump up for college if you want but it's probably not THAT different for elite Power 5 programs like Michigan.
Anyway, back to Edwards - a guy that was described by Thunder in December like this: "Edwards still isn't a good running back" and looks "like he's stumbling over his own feet as soon as he gets the ball" in December. Now he's a top 15 player on the team? Must have been one hell of an offseason.
Edwards is good! He was good last year and he's good now. But if he is hurt, someone else will step in and do the job nearly as well. CJ Stokes ran for over a 1000 yards 3 times in high school. Maybe it's him.
Michigan didn't flinch when their 2nd RB was replaced by their 3rd RB last year. While I hope we don't have to find out, I think it would happen again in 2022. Missing Corum might cause a flinch though...
Edwards also put on 14 pounds since last season, presumably some of which is muscle. And that muscle will presumably help him with his balance, coordination, tackle breaking ability, etc., because that's what muscle is intended to do. We see lots of freshmen who aren't even good enough to get on the field in year one and then have a significant impact as redshirt freshmen. It's not too surprising that someone would make strides in the span of one year.
DeleteNot at RB. Stokes is third RB. Harbaugh isn't concerned about his weight 190, he's concerned about him knowing blitz pickups.
DeleteTo be clear....yes people get better. But rbs don't make leaps from not good to excellent in one offseason even if they gain 100 pounds.
DeleteEdwards put on 2 pounds since last season. He added 12 pounds from High School to his Freshman Year. That explanation doesn't pass the sniff test.
DeleteWhat a talent!
ReplyDelete