Rising redshirt sophomore safety Keon Sabb entered the transfer portal last week and, as of this weekend, has found a destination at Alabama.
Sabb was a member of the class of 2022, and I gave him a TTB Rating of 84 at the time of his commitment (LINK). He was a 4-star, the #9 safety, and #84 overall in his class. He was listed at 6'1" and 208 lbs. this past season and played a key role on Michigan's defense, starting five games and making 28 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 interceptions (returned 56 yards, including for 1 touchdown), and breaking up 7 passes. That came after a freshman season where he played in just four total games.
Sabb was going to be a key part of Michigan's secondary once again in 2024, but both Rod Moore and Makari Paige are returning to Michigan. Moore and Paige were somewhat expected to announce for the NFL after this past season, and Sabb surely would have slipped in there at one of the safety positions. But with both returning, there's a good chance that Sabb would have been squeezed for playing time once again. He would have played, but how much?
Now Michigan has to hope that another young defensive back can step up. For whatever reason, the defensive backfield has been hurt by transfers this off-season, including cornerbacks Amorion Walker (Ole Miss) and Cam Calhoun (Utah). The next guys in line to play more would likely be third-year guy Zeke Berry or second-year player Brandyn Hillman.
As for Sabb's future, he will likely play a starting role, especially since Alabama lost Caleb Downs to Ohio State in free agency. It's just a little odd that Sabb will be playing for a team (Alabama) Michigan beat in the Rose Bowl and for a coach (former Washington head man Kalen DeBoer) whom Michigan beat in the national championship game.
Michigan has previously offered Sabb's two younger brothers in 2026 safety Amari Sabb and 2027 athlete Xavier Sabb.
Keon Sabb is the sixth member of the 2022 class to transfer, joining Walker, WR Darrius Clemons (Oregon State), S Damani Dent (Charlotte), LB Deuce Spurlock (Florida), and RB C.J. Stokes (Charlotte).
My take is an outlier with consensus opinion, so go ahead and stop reading if you don't want to hear that.
ReplyDeleteThis is a massive loss. Sabb is probably one of the top 10 returning players I would have picked to keep in a hypothetical "expansion draft" and he probably would rank in the top 10-15 range in a summer TTB countdown for 2024.
I think that Michigan needs Sabb MORE than Alabama needs him. I think that he was lined up to play all the snaps he could handle on the 2024 Michigan defense.
Main reason for this is our defense has room to play 3 safeties most of the time. Sabb, Q Johnson, Paige, and Moore have all played both safety and nickel and their duties were pretty fluid. Dax Hill is an NFL safety and he played nickel and safety. Those duties can flip within 2 seconds in response to an offensive players motion. It's the same skillset between the positions and Michigan has a pattern of putting it's best 5 DBs out there for as many snaps as they can handle. Amoeba!
Besides, Sabb already started 5 games last year. His snap count was sandwiched between Kenneth Grant and Josiah Stewart last year. Those guys are both elevating to starting roles next year -- Sabb would have too.
Overall for our 2024 team, losing Sabb means a whole lot more snaps Jaden McBurrows. I hesitate to underestimate McBurrows but I think there's a reason he was behind Quinten Johnson and Keon Sab in the playing rotation last year. In contrast, for Alabama, it means that they get to bring a 5-star recruit off the bench more slowly rather than playing him on day 1. I would trade McBurrows for one of Alabama's 5-star recruits and I think so would most of the people reading this.
I think what happened here is that Courtney Morgan seized on an opportunity that he was uniquely situated to exploit given his connection to the program. He knows that Sabb is potentially an all american caliber starting DB -- but that part is not that unique, anyone watching the big role Sabb played on a national championship squad or familiar with his recruiting pedigree can see that. What Morgan is also well tuned to is that Michigan is big on rewarding production over potential. This is a cultural and philosophical point that was consistent with Warde Manuel and Jim Harbaugh and the collectives. Michigan has spent big money to retain proven veterans (Corum, Keegan, Cornelius Johnson) but not to land unproven recruits. This is a contrast to some schools who focus more on talent and get a whole lot more top 100 recruits than we do despite (presumably) similar or even less financial "resources".
I think what happened here is that Michigan looked at Sabb as a valuable backup and an up and comer but not on the same level as Moore, Paige, Graham, Johnson. But Morgan saw that Sabb probably WOULD be on those guys level after 2024 but wasn't yet. So he took the bet (95% likely to hit) to land a guy he projected to be at the Moore/Paige level. He paid Sabb on what he was about to do, not based on what he did last year.
Was Alabama desperate? Did they just need him more? Well I invite you to look at Alabama's projected depth chart in the secondary and compare to ours. You can't really beat our top 3 (Johnson, Moore, Paige) proven vets, but after that things fall off a cliff. Let me know who you think our 4th-7th best options are at DB currently. We've got options (so does EMU lol) but they are a lot of unproven players without much in the way of recruiting accolades.
Alabama has only one starter back (captain Malachi Moore) after a brutal coaching transition and expected NFL defections, but they've added three 5-star recruits in the most recent recruiting class, plus Domani Jackson. Think Jabril Peppers, Dax Hill, and Will Johnson but all in one class.
DeletePlus they have a handful of highly regarded recruits waiting to step up who are more impressive on paper than some of our guys like Waller, Berry, or McBurrows.
With Sabb in the fold they are in a better position than Michigan despite what many see as a disastrous off season. They can put the 7 or 8 guys needed in the secondary out there and fill it with NFL caliber players. Michigan cannot unless multiple of our 3-star recruits are hidden gems. I hope that turns out to be the case.
DeleteUpshot: I don't know what is worse between these 2 options.
Option A: Michigan got outbid for one of their starters.
Option B: Michigan misevaluated it's own personnel and treated Sabb like a backup while Alabama saw him a projected starter.
Probably B is better because it's just a one-off mistake. A probably means we're just going to get outspent by Georgia, Alabama, OSU and others forever and another national championship may not happen in our lifetimes. Jim Harbaugh isn't walking through that door again - we're not going to be able to just out coach people like we did with Harbaugh. So Michigan needs to pay up at OSU/Georgia/Alabama levels or risk falling way behind. Harbaugh climbed that mountain but it's pretty easy to fall off the top and you can go down faster than you can go up.
Sabb's snap numbers were somewhat inflated because he started five games, especially when Rod Moore was hurt to start the year. Could that happen again? Of course. Does anyone go into a season saying "Basically I'm a starter because if one of the guys ahead of me gets hurt, I'm going to start?" Meh...I guess that would be a good mindset, but it's also not very realistic.
DeleteI don't think money was the biggest issue. I think it was playing time and the coaching transition. Sabb is a guy who could very well be in the NFL in 2025, but if he's the third safety on his own team, that's unlikely to happen.
4,300 DB snaps in 2021 by the top 7 DBs -- all started games
Delete4,000 DB snaps in 2022 by the top 7 DBs -- all started games
3,500 DB snaps in 2023 by the top 7 DBs -- 6/7 started games
Sabb's snap count as DB6 was typical of the last 3 years, not unusual. If anything it was a little bit down because of reduced total snaps on an elite D playing a soft schedule, despite the extra game. DB 6 snaps counts were 360 (Sabb in 23) vs 380 (Green in 21) and 440 (Green in 22).
But even if you buy that premise, there's still a boatload of snaps that need to be replaced. Q Johnson and Sabb had more snaps combined than Sainristil last year. Wallace as well. All 4 are gone.
Let's assume 100% health and maximal workload for our Big 3 (Moore, Johnson, Paige). That will get you about 2,000-2,400 snaps out of the 4,000 you need amongst "starters". You're going to need to find another 1,500-2,000 snaps from 4 other "starters".
Who ya got who is making playing time an issue for Sabb with 2,000 snaps available?
Snap Count Details:
2021 was 820 Hill, 810 Gray, 800 Hawkins, 620 Turner, 500 Moten 500, 380 Green, 360 Moore.
2022 was 750 Turner, 730 Moore, 690 Sainristil, 490 Paige, 490 Johnson, 440 Green, 420 Moten
2023 was Moore 500, Paige 480, W. Johnson 550, Sainristil 680, Wallace 620, Sabb 360, Q Johnson 330.
Okay, you win. Alabama offered him a bunch of money, Michigan offered him nothing, and he went for the bag. Simple as that. Case closed.
DeleteNo no my mistake. I back off. Sabb can't possibly beat out the guys he beat out last year, there's no chance of playing time because Moore and Paige will be healthy next year AND of course they can't play the nickel anymore even though they've played there in the past. Obviously money doesn't matter to college football players. This purely a playing time decision.
DeleteStrawman o'clock is my favorite time of day.
You wanted an argument. You got an argument. You don't want to believe the other side. That's fine.
DeleteI'm not going to sit here and argue with you for months about a topic that you refuse to change your mind about, regardless of what evidence is presented. I've seen that episode already, over and over.
I never said Michigan offered him nothing. That's not an argument with me.
DeleteThere's 2,000 snaps available in the secondary after the top 3. Who is getting those ahead of Sabb?
That is my argument. A to-be-named later CB will surely be part of the equation. We've still got over 1,000 available after that.
Maybe you'll take it from Sam Webb if not from me, but this was posted on 247:
Delete"sources with intel on Sabb’s departure indicated the overriding issue with remaining at Michigan was his concern over being part of a rotation a safety again. That was after seeing his playing time fluctuate significantly last year based on the availability of Rod Moore and Quinten Johnson. And while it appeared likely that he, Rod Moore, and Makari Paige could all see time together (with one of them moving to nickel), he thought better of the opportunity in Tuscaloosa."
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/article/michigan-all-american-will-johnson-alabama-rumors-keon-sabb-227517708/
Webb also said that other schools were offering outrageous compensation for our backups and you may see those guys moving on. He didn't specifically say Sabb -- but Sabb is our only portal departure. Furthermore, when it was announced Sam said it was no surprise if you were paying attention. The collectives were stepping up for the frontline guys but not everyone.
DeleteRegardless of that...it's consistent with what I said above: "Option B: Michigan misevaluated it's own personnel and treated Sabb like a backup while Alabama saw him a projected starter."
It's on the Michigan coaching staff to clarify the playing time and opportunity. The snaps are there and the "you're a starter here" message should have been communicated. Unless, as you said, McBurrows is considered a superior starter to Sabb.
That last part is debatable at best. Here is an article talking about Sabb's versatility and the expectation that he is a day 1 NFL draft choice. You don't give that up for positional orthodoxy - especially when each guy has demonstrated they can play nickel already.
https://247sports.com/Article/alabama-getting-day-one-guy-in-michigan-safety-transfer-keon-sabb-227278858/
Correction: there was no NFL projection.
DeleteLank, you're really contorting yourself here to try to get some validation.
DeleteYou said it had to be about NIL when I was saying it was about playing time.
Now you get an article from Sam Webb - who's the most plugged-in insider on the beat - saying it was about playing time, not NIL, and you come back with "Well, see, I was right all along."
Unless Keon Sabb comes out and says, "Look, this move was entirely about NIL," this is all you're probably going to get. It is what it is.
LOL - Where did I say this was only about money? That was my option A, I gave an option B. I'm not looking for validation. Your framing was about the dichotomy - money no playing time yes. Mine was not.
DeleteWebb says the money was similar. He also said that Will Johnson was out trying to get Sabb more NIL money. So Alabama offered more money but Sabb's decision wasn't based on that. I'm not arguing that point. You can drop option A form the 2 options I noted above. I have. I'm happy to hear that since it was the worse of the 2 options I listed.
The point that is still relevant, and was discussed on the WTKA/Mgoblog roundtable was consistent with my point above. Sabb was going to get starter snaps at both places. Sam Webb talked about this too. The difference in what was OFFERED to Sabb was that Alabama said "look here you are locked into starter vs there where you might be a backup". Michigan didn't tell him he was a locked in starter -- but they could have and they should have. And they should have told him that learning a new system with an unproven staff might risk his NFL draft prospects. So it's an issue of perception on Sabb's side and Michigan' was unable to overcome it.
Alabama out recruited Michigan. Alabama offered more. Even if that offer wasn't based on money entirely.
Call that a contortion if you want. I don't really care. Michigan should have offered more -- job security, role certainty, however you want to frame it. They didn't do a good job valuing a guy who would start here and failed at making him feel like he was a starter by selling him on the REALITY that he would bea starter here. There is no REAL difference in playing time opportunity, but there is a perceived one on Sabb's part.
Michigan matching the financial offer (or coming close) is a great sign for Michigan. Michigan not hitting the right notes on recruiting isn't -- but that's a tougher thing at an individual level and we lose those kind of battles pretty regularly. I'm still bummed we lose Sabb but I'm less concerned about the program knowing that it's not as simple as being outbid.
@Thunder
DeleteThis is your strawman, not my post:
"Alabama offered him a bunch of money, Michigan offered him nothing, and he went for the bag"
Sucks, but onward
ReplyDeleteI do not think this is about NIL money. I do not believe believe that Bama will outbid Michigan by such a significant amount. I also find it hard to believe that Michigan does not value Sabb who is clearly one of the most important returning player. My guess? This is about Playing Time and Coaches leaving.
ReplyDeleteThe top 3 returning DBs were already soaking up starter snaps (Moore 500, Paige 480, W. Johnson 550). That's about 1,500 snaps in total.
DeleteThe departing DB snaps that need to be replaced are over 2,000 more: (Sainristil 680, Wallace 620, Sabb 360, Q Johnson 330).
So with 2,000 snaps available who on this team is keeping Sabb from from getting 500-700 snaps?
@ Lank 9:54 a.m.
DeleteThe same people as last year are preventing Sabb from getting more snaps: Moore and Paige. It doesn't really matter that much if Josh Wallace had 620 snaps last year, because Sabb isn't a cornerback.
What it really comes down to is whether Michigan plans to play a third safety at the nickel position (Moore is rumored to be getting a shot there) or play a corner at the nickel position (McBurrows, Kody Jones, etc.).
If Moore is the full-time nickel, then Sabb has a starting spot at safety. But if the coaching staff indicated to the guys that they plan to keep Moore at safety and use McBurrows, Jones, or someone else at nickel...then this makes sense.
Like I said above, it's tough to make your case to get drafted to the NFL as a safety if your own coaches at a place like Michigan think you're the third-best safety on the team.
At the QB position after 2021, Cade McNamara was never going to be able to make his case to play pro ball if he had to sit behind J.J. McCarthy to finish out his career. Only one QB plays unless the starter gets hurt. So he transferred, and nobody really had a problem with him leaving (except for some of the stupid stuff he said after he left). And Michigan did just fine with finding Jack Tuttle as a transfer replacement.
Michigan still also has time to find Sabb's replacement for the fall after spring ball.
@ Thunder
DeleteThings I agree on --
1. Michigan has time to find a replacement for Sabb.
2. Sabb is probably not going to get CB snaps so we can cut those out of the equation.
3. If there is a nickel better than Moore/Paige/Sabb, then the loss of Sabb is mitigated.
Thing I don't agree with:
Paige and Moore are keeping Sabb from getting starter snaps.
DB is like CB.
second thing first -- We play 7 to 8 DBs in meaningful snaps. There is no optionality to this - it doesn't matter if guys or hurt or not hurt you're playing 7 DBs almost every game, 6 if you want to keep it really tight.
The snap count need is covered above. I'll refine it to remove CBs and the top 2 starting non-CBs. Last year it was over 700 snaps (Sabb/Johnson). The year before that it was 860 (Paige/Moten), the year before that it was 860 (Moten/Moore).
Paige/Moore/Sabb all played nickel as well as safety. There are a ton of snaps at nickel and safety both. So even if you think McBurrows is stepping in one for one for Sainristil there's tons of safety snaps available.
But let's not bury the lede here it was definitively NOT the case last year, that McBurrows at nickel was preferred over Sabb and QJohnson. Even when Sainristil slid out to CB, it was those 2 stepping into the secondary, not McBurrows. McBurrows snaps were MOSTLY limited to garbage time, even with some injuries in the secondary. His role was similar to QJohnson in 2022 -- he was DB8 and got a handful of snaps but the coaches didn't trust him to do much.
So again, let's assume a CB like Waller steps in for Wallace -- who is keeping Sabb of the field if Moore and Paige are grabbing 1,600 snaps?
You have another 1,500-2,000 snaps to find. Let's say McBurrows is 500-800 of them. You're still got to find another 700 or so at a minimum, but more likely you need another 1,000 between two more guys.
In the 2024 secondary there is zero risk of Michigan not having a boatload of snaps available for Sabb.
It's a moot point because Sabb would play starter caliber snaps at both places, but FWIW, Sabb faces a bigger risk of playing time crunch in the Alabama secondary.
DeleteAlabama has Malachi Moore returning, several other top 200 recruits that were expected to replace the starting secondary lined up to return (Smith, Mitchell, Hurley), Domani Jackson plus and three 5-star recruits.
The top 5 guys are going to get starter level snaps and the next 2 will get at least half of that. Sabb has an easier path to be in the top 5 at Michigan than he does at Alabama because the talent level for the 5th options is far less at Michigan.
Michigan's options for the 5th spot are McBurrows, Berry, Jones, and Pollard. Alabama's list is more impressive.
Oh look, another argument ... desperate!
DeleteHere only to comment about Lank. Again.
DeleteI was literally the second poster on this thread
DeleteI get it. You're lonely & bored. You need the argument. Lies, hyperbole & exaggeration. Twisting words & misinterpretation .... You can't help it
I oblige, occasionally. You're welcome
JEverytime projecting his feelings. No thanks.
DeleteThis only makes sense if he thinks he can play in the show in 2025 because he was tracking to be a starter in 25 at UM, all big 10, and possible All American. Unless he really steps up, to me, he is tracking as a late round draft pick next year. He needs two more years.
ReplyDelete