Thursday, November 21, 2024

Bryce Underwood, Wolverine

 

Belleville (MI) Belleville QB Bryce Underwood (image via Yahoo!)

Belleville (MI) Belleville quarterback Bryce Underwood flipped from LSU to Michigan on Thursday night. He picked the Wolverines over . . . everyone.

Underwood is listed at 6'3" and 205 pounds. As a junior he completed 179/276 passes (64.8%) for 3,329 yards, 44 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. Altogether, he has been responsible for over 165 touchdowns as a four-year starter at quarterback for the Tigers.

RANKINGS
ESPN: 5-star, 93 grade, #1 QB, #1 overall
On3: 5-star, 99 grade, #1 QB, #1 overall
Rivals: 5-star, 6.1 grade, #2 QB, #2 overall
247 Sports: 5-star, 99 grade, #1 QB, #1 overall

Hit the jump for more.


Underwood's recruitment to Michigan was a topsy-turvy one, obviously. The Wolverines under Jim Harbaugh had a testy relationship with Belleville, and for a while, Belleville was largely un-recruit-able. Despite turning into a metro Detroit powerhouse over the past few years - taking over that mantle from the likes of Cass Tech - the players from Belleville were choosing Michigan State, Kentucky, etc. over staying close to home in Ann Arbor. Ace recruit Sherrone Moore was put on the case and started to repair things when he was an assistant, but that wasn't enough to seal the deal with anyone. Meanwhile, Underwood himself had strong interest in Michigan all along, but his childhood favorite team LSU came calling and had a recent history of producing superstar quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels.

While Michigan's offense has been extremely shaky this season, LSU has not performed particularly well, either, and people in Baton Rouge aren't super fond of head coach Brian Kelly at this point. As most Michigan fans have heard, the NIL component of Michigan's recruiting has kicked in recently, too, allowing the Wolverines to leverage that end of their campaign, too. I won't get into speculating what type of NIL deal Underwood might be getting, but it appears to be pretty significant. It also seems to help that former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions called offensive plays for the Tigers late in the season, and fellow Belleville product Elijah Dotson is Ann Arbor-bound, too.

As for Underwood's play on the field, he has a ton of playing experience as a four-year starter at the high school level. Some recruiting analysts have pointed out that a lot of the star quarterbacks in college these days have a ton of passing reps from their high school days (side note: current Michigan starter and former walk-on Davis Warren had very few reps, comparatively). I'll jump right to my comparison here, which I usually reserve for later in the scouting report, but Underwood reminds me a lot of former Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner. Gardner was listed at 6'4" and 216 pounds at Michigan; Underwood is listed in some places at 6'3.5" and "pushing 215 pounds," according to Allen Trieu. Gardner was thinner as a recruit, and I think Underwood will end up playing at 225 pounds or so in college.

Aside from size, I think the comparison extends to their play on the field. Both are tall and lanky with slightly unconventional throwing motions. Gardner had kind of a whip for an arm, rather than a compact delivery, and he was capable of making most of the necessary throws. Gardner was hampered by playing for Rich Rodriguez and then spending some time at receiver while Denard Robinson played quarterback, but I don't think Underwood will face that same fate; Underwood will probably be a QB throughout his career, and I'm not sure he's quite on Gardner's level as an all-around athlete.

Anyway, Underwood has a powerful arm; he can throw moon shots, and he has the arm strength to throw far-hash out routes. He has the capability to get the ball out quickly on screens, and I think he generally has good ball placement on in-breaking routes. He's a good runner and I think he runs behind his pads a little better than Gardner did; Underwood runs a bit like a running back, while Gardner ran more like a receiver.

The mechanics for Underwood can be a little bit inconsistent. I don't think he always gets himself lined up with his target, and he sometimes counts on his arm a little too much. There are also times where he drops his arm slot unnecessarily; it's a good thing to be able to throw from different angles when necessary, but sometimes that will get balls batted down or intercepted. There might be some early-career growing pains where defensive linemen get their hands on some passes before he cleans up that aspect of his game.

Overall, I think Underwood has the capability to be an excellent college player. He would instantly be #1 on Michigan's depth chart, in my opinion; that may change if they bring in a transfer portal player, but he's probably better than Warren and Alex Orji right now. I don't think Underwood will immediately walk in and be a superstar because of some of those issues with mechanics, but he might be worth putting on the field from day one. His saving grace is that he offers a rushing element, so Michigan could actually run some zone reads and other designed quarterback runs, unlocking the offense a little bit even if the passing game isn't up to par.

I have in the past been critical of Belleville products, so I'm a little bit gun-shy here. Ever since Belleville produced the likes of Ian Gold, Cullen Jenkins, and Kris Jenkins in the late 1990s, a lot of "star" players have gone through Belleville and there have been a lot of recruiting duds; even top-100 players like Julian Barnett and Devontae Dobbs, both in the 2019 recruiting class, went to Michigan State, transferred, and saw their careers fizzle. They have produced some minor successes like Kaevon Merriweather, a lightly recruited player who became a star for Iowa and is now in the NFL, but generally, Belleville players have not hit at a high rate in college. So I am slightly skeptical but hopeful for Underwood.

Along with Dotson, Underwood would be the first Belleville product to sign with Michigan in the last 28 years other than the late Andre Seldon, a 2020 signee who would go on to transfer to New Mexico State and Utah State before tragically drowning this past summer. If the current recruiting rankings hold with Underwood as the #1 overall player, he would be tied with Rashan Gary for the top signee in modern Michigan recruiting history.

As we speed toward National Signing Day in early December, rumors are swirling that Michigan could also flip Las Vegas (NV) Bishop Gorman WR Derek Meadows and Denton (TX) Ryan OT Ty Haywood, who are committed to LSU and Alabama, respectively. On the flip side, Michigan lost the commitment of QB Carter Smith as they ramped up their efforts with Underwood; they have also lost DL Jaylen Williams and S Ivan Taylor in recent days, though those losses aren't related to Underwood.

At this point, the #1 question might be about who will be coordinating Michigan's offense in 2025. First-year coordinator Kirk Campbell has not developed any of this year's quarterbacks very well, and it would be a tough sell to expect the offensive staff to remain status quo going into next season. I think I like Campbell more than some Michigan fans, but even I can admit that he has not adapted the offense well to his personnel this season. I might actually be okay with Campbell being relegated to a role as QB coach like he was in 2023, but that's unlikely; it's more likely that he will be coaching elsewhere in 2025 and Michigan will hire a new coordinator.

TTB Rating: 89

46 comments:

  1. beasley was another interesting belleville signing - enrolled early only to leave post spring ball i believe.

    id probably rank underwood around 83. great arm, nice athleticism however michigan QBs struggle to produce, other than mccarthy.

    fingers crossed hes the next mccarthy. few QBs can match his mental makeup though, plus the ability to lead and not mope while averaging 20 throws/game or whatever it was. maybe moore will adjust things if he has a gunslinger. well see.

    certainly nice to see michigan aggressively pursue and land a potential difference maker at sports most significant position. while not ideal, hed likely start day 1 given the dreadful state of QB room

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    1. One bonus for Underwood is that he's a little stouter than McCarthy. I think the coaches were a little fearful of running McCarthy because he was pretty slight, but Underwood is already bigger than McCarthy. So while his mental makeup is yet to be grasped, he might make a few more plays with his legs than McCarthy did.

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  2. A four year high school starter is a real good thing, particularly in our present circumstance.

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  3. I'm struggling a bit to interpret your rating for Underwood, largely because the rating explanations blend both college success and NFL draft outcomes. I see Underwood having a very similar career to McCarthy - all B10 quarterback but never in Heisman contention. 1st round draft pick, and fans around the country see him as "overrated" because of the lack of counting stats. That being said, it does feel like Sherrone is a bit more open to throwing for the sake of stats than Harbaugh was, so we'll see.

    @ Thunder - how would you have graded JJ's career in hindsight? That will be an interesting data point relative to your Underwood grade.

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    1. "Thunder - how would you have graded JJ's career in hindsight?"

      This is an interesting question, and I too would enjoy seeing Thunder's views on this. There are all sorts of "retrospective what-if" questions that could be explored, just for the sake of discussion:

      (1) What if J.J. had been started as a true freshman?
      (2) What if the RB combination of Corum and Edwards wasn't present?
      (3) What if the defense wasn't as dominant as it was?

      If J.J. is a kind of proxy for projecting the success of Underwood (which is not a given, I admit), then those questions point to what Underwood may face.

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  4. Assuming this is a done deal, and Underwood signs and is in uniform for 2025, it will be very interesting to see who starts next year. There'll be all sorts of talk of a "quarterback competition," but the truth is Underwood has to be slated as the starter unless HE asks to be worked in slowly. Imagine the howls of protest if the coaching staff starts someone else, Underwood sits, and the team struggles.

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    1. An edit ... let's assume this happens, as I say. Thunder, you're advising Sherrone Moore, and you are crafting the portal strategy for this off-season given all you know about the current state of the roster.

      What areas of the team do you augment via the portal to provide for Underwood what he would need to transition in and succeed?

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  5. You absolutely need at least one other "good" QB on the roster. We have not seen J Davis yet so it's difficult to judge whether he could fit that description. Everyone else we have seen likely does not fit that description so if Davis does not, I think you have to find a decent portal QB. Underwood is obviously very talented but no true frosh is a sure thing and he will likely struggle to be "good" in his first year.

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  6. QB is still at top Portal need. Warren is backup material (QB3), and Orji is no more than a gimmick ... no idea about Davis, but I'm guessing he's a late bloomer or transfer/bust

    I love the statement of this pickup. Do I think we just landed VYoung or Cam Newton? No, but even if we did, year1 won't be championship level. Need a QB to compete & bring the best out of the youngster, holding him off until he's ready (think Trevor Lawrence)

    CONGRATS Coach Moore and GO BLUE

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  7. So Moore can raise money to land 5* recruits. Congratulations. I am still skeptical he can be the guy who can build a football program. This reminds me of Jimbo Fisher’s last few years at A&M where they “paid” lots of highly rated recruits to come to A&M. High recruiting ranking every year but mediocre results on the field.

    If we are going to spend that kind of money, I would rather we spend the money on the Dline and Oline. Be the best “smash football team” we can be. What is the identity of Michigan football under Moore? I am kinda of confused right now.

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    1. This is my thinking as well but he's going to get his shot to prove all the skeptics wrong in 2025. Moore will get a second chance with a full off-season to make whatever changes he thinks are appropriate.

      It is possible that things went sideways this season due to a bad OC hire, analyst departures, and relying too heavily on promotion from within the program over bringing in more experienced and qualified coordinators.

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  8. Haven't been to a HS football game in a couple years. Haven't been paying attention to much of anything having to do with sports this year. So I decided I'd go see our new prize play in the tournament.

    Damn!!! Catholic Central put him out. He didn't have a great game 11 of 23, 160 or so yards passing.

    Wasn't stellar in last year's championship game either, going similar in a finals loss against Southfield A&T where he got out dueled pretty good by their kid who I'm pretty sure is playing D1 somewhere. For some reason, I always root for Southfield A&T.

    Still Underwood had just a stellar high school career, winning his first 38 games or so, three trips to the finals, four to the final eight, two state championships.

    He's about to get some real scrutiny and pressure, the likes of which few people of any age ever experience. I'm pulling for him.

    So, I'm gonna go see CC play Cass Tech. Hang out with old football dads. I was told that CC has guys that will hit you. Not sure what's different about that. As an aside why do the Catholic Central Shamrocks wear powder blue? Asking to irritate a friend.

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    1. Southfield A&T's QB was Isaiah Marshall, who signed with Kansas.

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  9. Gardner was hampered by playing for Rich Rodriguez?
    Oh, ok.

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    1. Rich Rodriguez is not exactly known for his quarterback development. His best two quarterbacks were Pat White and Denard Robinson, who went on to play wide receiver and running back in the NFL. The guy has been an FBS head coach for the better part of 25 years, starting in 2001, and he has produced zero NFL quarterbacks.

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    2. Gardner barely played for Rodriguez. He spent 4 of his 5 college seasons with Hoke and Borges and it's not clear if he got better or worse along the way.

      You see it regularly now in the NFL, but 15-20 years ago when Rodriguez what at his peak, the zone read stuff was just completely foreign to the NFL. Rodriguez wasn't trying to turn his QBs into NFL QBs, he was trying to get them to run his system. I don't really see his NFL QB production as any kind of fault in Rodriguez.

      Anyway, Gardner knew what he was signing up in that sense but what he couldn't have anticipated is that Rodriguez would be gone a few months after he stepped on campus and the OL would fall apart. I really credit both Denard and Gardner for sticking with Michigan when they each would have been so much better off (at least on the football field) by transferring to a better coached program.

      But yeah, it's goofy to blame Rodriguez for Gardner not turning into an NFL player.

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    3. I didn't blame Rodriguez for not turning him into an NFL player. The comment was about QB development, and Rodriguez didn't/doesn't develop quarterbacks.

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    4. The comment was about Devin Gardner, whose time with Rodriguez lasted one season. Meanwhile he spent 4 years with Hoke.

      Rodriguez developed QBs like White and Robinson without much expectations about their passing skills into heisman contenders and all Americans QBs.

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    5. I don't 'blame' RR for the Gardner disaster, but he had to have had to have anticipated a coaching change. RR was on the hot seat even before the commitment, and certainly by signing day. Besides, signing along with ... ONE offensive lineman and Drew Dileo as a top WR were gigantic red flags, or should have been

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    6. I didn't feel it was necessary to recap every single aspect of Devin Gardner's career in a post about Bryce Underwood, but I did mention other things that are also being ignored. The comment was not "Rich Rodriguez ruined Devin Gardner's quarterback career." But if you want to pretend I said that, have at it. I spent too much time arguing about things I never said.

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    7. @Thunder

      You brought up Rodriguez! LOL. You chose to emphasize that one year of coaching over the 4 years with Hoke or any number of other things that could have been brought up (like horrendous OL play or injury issues).

      OP/anon asked a valid question.

      @JE

      Gardner committed to Rich Rod and Michigan in spring of 2009, after Rodriguez's first year complete overhaul. They got better in 2009 and better again in 2010 especially on offense. The thing that could not be evident was how awful the defense was going to be in 2010.

      Hemingway and Gallon were good WRs and there were a bunch of others that were highly rated as recruits. OL was loaded with guys who would go on to the NFL (Schofield, Lewan, Campbell, Omameh) and had commitments from more on the way. It was not so bleak as it ended up.

      Gardner is also a local kid, so while you could say he should have fled for greener pastures once he saw the Hoke/Borges combo coming in for 2011, I can't do anything but appreciate and admire his desire to stick with Michigan (him and Denard both). High character. Didn't run away from the first sign of difficulty.

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    8. I was replying to "but what he couldn't have anticipated is that Rodriguez would be gone a few months after he stepped on campus" ... RR was already on the hot seat when Devin committed & signed. "Improving" to five wins didn't change that

      I didn't say he should flee, and do appreciate the loyalty (especially without much of an OL to protect him, & Dileo as his WR)

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    9. Gardner committed before the 2009 season, in March. BEFORE RR's second year.

      I don't think RR's seat was very hot in year 1, everyone understood that he was hitting the reset button. And after starting year 2 season 4-0 things looked pretty rosy in fact. A couple narrow road losses away from being 7-0.

      Things went real downhill in the back half of year 2. By then Gardner had already been committed for more than half a year.

      You can make the case he knew what was coming by signing day perhaps, but not for his commitment. Ultimately, He stuck to his word.

      Anyway we saw a big leap to an elite offense in 2010, after Gardner showed up. The other side of the ball neutralized it. That was not foreseeable, IMO, even as a Greg Robinson skeptic. For a school like Michigan to have a defense near the very bottom of college football remains unforgivable. No one saw that coming, least of all a high school QB from SE Michigan.

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    10. RR was on the hot seat in 2oo8 ... the Toledo game comes to mind ... books have been written. Devin commited & signed with one OL and a terrible WR class ... the writing was on the wall. Character guy to stick with it, but if he couldn't anticipate problems, that's on him


      Was the offense ELITE in 2o1o, or just better than the 3 & 5 win previous editions? It's not like Mississippi State was a great team, but we got handled ... held under 3o points seven times, and only had DRob as a skill player. I remember that season as extremely one dimensional and pretty easy for not-bad teams to defend. But that's another story


      We got Bryce MF Underwood ... onward, and GO BLUE

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    11. I think you're confusing hindsight and what things looked like in march of 2009. Again, the issue was the defense, especially in 2010, and that was not anticipatable in March of 2009.

      The offense was good -- real good -- top 20 good in 2010. Everything there was on track for the future too - Jake Fisher on the way and the basis of the 2011 offense that was still pretty good even with Borges driving it into the ground.

      Miss State was a top 15 defense in 2010. Meanwhile our defense gave up over 50 points. Offense outproduced what Michigan did beating OSU on Saturday. The difference was the defense.

      28 points against Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Great defenses shut them down, yes. That's normal, even for good offenses. OSU was #1 D in the country that year. Michigan's O was not an all-time elite unit but it was very good and trending in the right direction, still, in 2010.

      Many fans memories are colored by wins and losses, understandably. Davis Warren is a "legend" to Thunder when in reality he is a worse than John O'Korn, all because the defense was outstanding and OSU's kicker missed 2 FGs and Ryan Day is a chump.

      2010 had the worst defense I've ever seen at Michigan. The 2010 offense is guilty by association, and Denard was MOST of the 2010 offense. He did what he did without a lot of other skill position talent. Put him on 2021-2023 rosters, NFL guys all around, elite OL, elite Defense... there would be multiple Nattys.

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    12. Davis Warren is a legend because he's a walk-on quarterback who marched into Columbus and beat Ohio State. Say what you want, but he made key throws to Marlin Klein and Peyton O'Leary, ran for a key first down, etc. And any win over OSU is a great win.

      They should build a statue of Davis Warren right next to the Bo statue.

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    13. March of 2oo9 was 4mos after we finished 3-9. I remember quite well how bad every facet of the program was, and the wopping 2 win improvement that followed

      I also recall that the Defense somehow got much worse each year, and that the offense improved a little in year2 and in year3 the run game (DRob) dominated crap teams, did okay against decent teams, and faltered against good to great teams

      But since you downgraded from elite to really good, I now agree. The offense in year3 was really good (at running with DRob) ... that's about it





      *we landed one of the highest rated QBs in MICHIGAN history, yet we're talking Devin Gardner, RR & DRob and now ... Davis Warren?

      F it, I agreed. GO BLUE

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    14. "Davis Warren is a legend because he's a walk-on quarterback who marched into Columbus and beat Ohio"

      Except he did not beat Ohio, he threw a pick at the goaline and contributed 3 points to the scoreboard (the other 2 scoring drives were 100% RB runs).

      He is worse than John O'Korn but he's on a better team, specifically playing with a far better defense.

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    15. @jelly

      The defense got worse, dramatically so. Meanwhile the wins incremented upward, which tells you something about the offense.

      The 2010 offense was excellent. Top 20, maybe top 10. Not as good as 2023, but better than 2021 or 2019 or 2015 etc. Good at passing (146 passer rating as a team, 150 by Denard), ELITE at running...despite a weak group of RBs. Of course we know how much that matters...

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    16. From elite to really good to excellent?

      We didn't agree, shocker. But getting Bryce Underwood is a really good thing. Maybe we agre on that

      GO BLUE

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    17. @ Lank 3:13 p.m.

      This team is better than the 2017 team?

      This team is 7-5. That team was 8-4.

      This team has questionable offensive talent. That team had Mason Cole (NFL), Ben Bredeson (NFL), Michael Onwenu (NFL), Jon Runyan Jr. (NFL), Sean McKeon (NFL), Zach Gentry (NFL) on offense, along with freshman version of Donovan Peoples-Jones (NFL) and Nico Collins (NFL). They had a good RB in Karan Higdon and Chris Evans (NFL). The defense had Josh Metellus (NFL), Maurice Hurst (NFL), Chase Winovich (NFL for a few years), Bryan Mone (NFL), Khaleke Hudson (NFL), Devin Bush (NFL), David Long (NFL), and Brandon Watson (NFL).

      This team is #111 in scoring offense. That team was #91 in scoring offense.

      This team is #25 in scoring defense. That team was #13 in scoring defense.

      I don't know who from this current team will end up in the NFL at this point (though Graham, Grant, Loveland, Johnson, and a couple others are good bets), but the overall talent on that 2017 squad included a lot of guys who are still in the NFL. To say unequivocally that this is a better team is a bit of a stretch, IMO.

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    18. @Thunder

      I think the team, outside of QB, is better in 2024 than it was in 2017. But I agree it is a debatable point because both teams had similarly ineffective offenses, rotated through multiple bad QBs, and relied on excellent defenses to win.

      O'Korn managed to be involved in more than 3 points against OSU though.

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    19. @jelly

      It feels good for sure. Remains to be seen if $10M (or whatever) on a High School QB is a worthy risk or if that $ could be spent more wisely on the portal or other positions. I'll be rooting for yes.

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  10. RR job was to win at Michigan and develop a QB to win in college running the smash QB-RB option spread IN COLLEGE. Robinson, in 1000 lifetimes, was never going to play Ob in the pros so RR didn't ruin a future "Peyton Manning". What robinson became was one of the most productive and exciting QB ever at UM.

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    1. Well, he didn't win at Michigan and got fired after three years. So he failed at achieving his objective.

      That's fine if you feel that way about Robinson. He was an exciting player. He was not a good quarterback. And that's okay.

      Regardless, Rodriguez is/was not a good quarterback developer. He never has been, and he probably never will be. Oh well.

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    2. LOL - again, calling an all American, Heisman finalist, and conference player of the year "not good" at his position is laughable.

      Rodriguez developed white and Robinson into excellent college QBs, when a lot of schools would have put them at other positions. I think he can feel good about his development since he did not work in the NFL.

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    3. Feel like this debate should be pretty simple. Was Robinson great against the lower tier B10 teams? Yes. Was he the kind of player who could win a National Championship (or even a B10 Championship)? No. Offense became too one dimensional. Great against bad teams, really bad against good teams. Pretty simple.

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    4. That's not the debate at all. Being so great that you carry a team with an atrocious defense to a national title is a different bar than being "a bad QB".

      Denard beat OSU. Denard put up 400+ yards and 5 TDs against Notre Dame. Most offenses get slowed down when facing elite defenses, that's how it works. He had some bad games, so did JJ McCarthy. It happens, especially when your supporting cast is not very good. Denard had to carry the team on his back in a way that JJ did not. Are we comparing these two or are we comparing Denard to guys like Speight and Rudock and Patterson who most people do not call "bad at QB".

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  11. I don't know that he is going to be the savior people want him to be. The pressure on a freshman to come in and start and play like JJ is going to very tough. Hopefully, he is him, but I'm worried about fan reaction if he is not (and odds are he is not).

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    1. Why would fan reaction worry anyone?

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    2. Because fans can affect the players. If fans are booing the team. If guys like Jabril Peppers and Rashan Gary are treated like they are disappointments and stars like Denard Robinson are denigrated as "bad QBs" by a large portion of the fan base that's something players pick up on and may become disinclined to want to do things like give back (like Tom Brady calling Bryce Underwood or Charles Woods on recruiting Will Johnson).

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    3. I've lived in the South where fans are ruthless ... if a player's feelings get hurt over fans, they probably lack the emotional maturity to make it long-term anyway (in any part of the entertainment industry)

      But fans being worried about fans? I'm with Anon on that

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    4. Fanbases can affect things. Ryan Day is busy trying to act tough because the OSU fans are telling him he isn't tough enough. But that ain't him. The fans deserve some credit for not beating Michigan since 2019.

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    5. Day is reacting to getting his sh t pushed in by Harball, as well as coaching royalty like Holtz calling his team not tough

      My guess is media, peers & ego have a bigger impact than online fanatics

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    6. Agree to disagree. I think the fanbase said the same stuff, more often, more loudly, more impactfully.

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    7. absolutely NOT limiting fans to online message board types only

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