Name: Justice Haynes
Height: 5'11″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Buford (GA) Buford
Position: Running back
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #22
Last year: Haynes played for Alabama. He started six games and ran 79 times for 448 yards and 7 touchdowns; he also caught 17 passes for 99 yards.
TTB Rating: N/A
A second straight transfer in the countdown, Haynes started half the games last year for the Alabama Crimson Tide and would have played against Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl if not for entering the transfer portal. Despite starting six games, his only 100+ yard performance came against Western Kentucky in the season opener when he ran 4 times for 102 yards and 1 score, including an 85-yard touchdown. Otherwise, his rushing output never topped 79 yards. He did reel off four straight games with a touchdown score, including three against ranked teams. So while the overall totals weren't great, there was some steady production. (Quarterback Jalen Milroe and running back Jam Miller led the team with 168 and 145 rushing attempts, respectively.)
With Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards off to the NFL, Michigan needed someone else to step in at running back. Cole Cabana transferred to Western Michigan after the season, and Ben Hall transferred to North Carolina after spending the spring trying to duke it out with Haynes for a role in the 1-2 combo with Jordan Marshall. Haynes and Marshall seem like very similar running backs, guys who have some power, some speed, and some vision, and Michigan's offense should roll smoothly with those two guys in the backfield. But after Haynes, there is a major question mark, because the remaining backs are totally unproven at the FBS level. Massachusetts transfer C.J. Hester already re-entered the transfer portal, and Princeton transfer John Volker will fight with Micah Ka'apana and a couple freshmen for the #3 job. That means Marshall and Haynes are both pretty valuable commodities.
Over the last five full seasons (not counting the 2020 COVID season), Michigan's #2 running back has never had fewer than 119 carries and has averaged about 130 carries per year. If that trickles over into 2025, Haynes should be touching the ball about 135-140 times once you factor in a few receptions. Haynes has a chance to be an integral part of an offense that intends to beat up opposing defenses.
Prediction: Backup running back
We're going to need a heavy dose of both guys. Hopefully they can stay healthy, because nothing after them is close to intriguing
ReplyDeleteYep he should be a fun one to watch. It'll be intriguing to see how things sort out between him and Marshall. Both are talented backs but Marshall was 3rd string and barely played until Mullings and Edwards became unavailable. Hayes lost the starting job at Bama and was 3rd in the pecking order for carries. On one hand that doesn't look like elite talent necessarily. On the other hand both flashed some high end ability, come with big recruiting hype, and stayed ahead of other highly regarded talents on elite programs.
ReplyDeleteWith the prevalence of heavy rotation at the RB position, snaps are limited, so I find it hard to rank guys too high in importance. But there is no doubt that Hayes could generate big stats and a be on a lot of highlights. If Marshall goes down for a stretch, he'll be elevated into a starring role.
Glad to have him on the team and to see if one of Michigan's biggest NIL targets pays off. Encouraging to hear speculation that his running style fits with the offense - though we'll have to see with our own eyes.
...Will also be interesting to see what he does after the season with another year of eligibility still on the table for 2026.
"Haynes and Marshall seem like very similar running backs"
ReplyDeleteYep it seems like it doesn't it. This is an interesting dynamic and a departure from the oft-referenced Thunder/Lightening duos. I don't really think it's any sort of problem but perhaps it opens the door for one of the RB3 guys to carve a niche role for themselves. I don't expect this at all, but I always do enjoy when a FB type gets a big role at the goalline and Bredeson deserves the shine.
If you were to rank-order the running back role in terms of abilities, and the abilities were:
ReplyDeletea) Top-end speed
b) Acceleration, or quickness
c) Lateral mobility, or juking
d) Patience to see and wait for blocks
e) Ability to run through tackles, and YAC
f) Ability to catch the ball
f) Ability to pick up blitzes
How would you rank them? In an ideal world, what's the order of things you'd want in an RB?
D, B, E are tops to me.
DeleteD patience or "vision" can be learned but takes consistency - reps and trust with the OL to execute but it's so critical on gameday
B quickness matched with E strength are the main ways you avoid getting tackled. Either works but ideally you get both (e.g., Corum).
A speed is the most overrated thing but can inflate YPC for guys, typically when strong blocking gets them big windows into open field. (e.g., Edwards, Issac, Shaw, Brown, A-Train). Explosives matter but on most downs it's not relevant to RB.
F are both often underrated because there's not much analysis or distinction and it doesn't show up in stats. But if you're in an offense that is majority pass then this is exactly what you are doing most of the time. And even if you're run heavy like Michigan you're doing it 40% of the time. Some historical standouts here like Vincent Smith and (for a freshman) Charbonnet, but generally blocking is a necessary thing to get on the field at Michigan at least in the Fred Jackson days (which was most of the last 30 years). Anyway F is somewhat system dependant but often underrated.
First, I think Thunder does a great job with these countdowns. But Haynes is one that I think will rank much higher. I think Haynes is roughly on even footing with Marshall and when you factor in a true frosh QB, meh OLine and meh WRs, I think both backs will be very important (each probably a top 15 player, maybe higher). Also I think Michigan will need two healthy backs and both will be featured. Finally, from the film I saw I might even give the slightest edge to Haynes. So I would probably rank him around 12 or so. (I would rank Bryce #1 because duh QB plus his overall performance will dictate so much of what this team is or is not able to do. Benny might be #2 despite the deep rotation).
ReplyDeleteIf you can replace one with the other then neither is that valuable.
DeleteRotation is preferable, I think that is obvious for most, especially over the course of a full season. But historically when one of the top 2 goes down it is handled by the other taking on a bigger load and the fall-off in production is not really evident. Examples in recent years -- Blake goes down in '21 and Haskins goes from ~20 carries a game to ~30. Blake goes down in '22 and Edwards goes from ~10 carries a game to 20+. Edwards and Mullings unavailable to close '24 and Marshall drops a 100 yard game on Bama.
Not sure either back belongs in the top 15. Look at a position like DT or Edge where you also have rotation also -- but if you're down to one guy you trust you still can't give him 90% of the workload like you can at RB.
Heavy rotation is a luxury at RB but a must at other positions.
If Marshall gets injured then Haynes shoots up in importance...but that kind of logic hits harder at other positions than RB I think.
1. Underwood
2. Benny
3. Crippen
4. D.Moore
5. R. Moore
6. El Hadi
7. Link
8. Hill
9. Williams
10. Berry
I understand your point but my point is that for Michigan's offense, two top RBs are not a luxury its nearly a necessity. Sure, 1 or 2 games you can lean on one. IMO losing EITHER Marshall or Haynes for the season would have bigger drop off than losing Zeke Berry (no offense to Zeke). Until I see otherwise, Michigan's offense is dependent on good RBs, especially with mediocre WRs and OLine. You need two for the season and the drop off to the 3rd back is likely significant (more than Berry to Berry's backup IMO).
Delete@BNC did you notice a big drop off when Edwards went down against OSU or when Mullings opted out of the bowl?
DeleteDefinitely a necessity to have more than 1 back, but that's true at most positions. QB and OL are only spots without rotation. And backups at some spots (like OL) are probably more important than RB because they're subbing for multiple people.
You might be right about Berry but I'll just give the counter argument here. Berry is a starter. Haynes is a backup. Hill is another starting CB, but you need 3CBs to rotate. 3CBs is like 2RBs in terms of that's what you need, minimum, for meaningful snaps. So the analog to the top backup at RB (Haynes) is the top backup at CB (Anderson).
For example against Alabama CB3 was Hill and he played 28 snaps and RB2 was Hall and he played 30 snaps.
You can tighten down the rotation at both yeah, but you still need a backup to play a key role, even in a limited capacity. So if one of the top 3 (meaningful rotation) at CB goes down what happens? It's a freshman or unproven starter. Meanwhile what if one of the top 2 (meaningful rotation) at RB goes down? It's Volker (probably) before a freshman or unproven starter.
The situation is more precarious at CB. The depth is better at RB. So that's why I'd rank the starting CB(s) higher than the backup RB. If Berry or Hill goes goes down you are leaning more on Anderson AND the CB equivalent of Kapanna or Parker. If Marshall or Haynes goes down you are leaning harder into the co-starter but you've got a proven vet at least to step in before you NEED one of the youngsters.
Comparing CB2 to RB2 -- starter vs backup, higher percentage of snaps, tougher to replace without pulling a young/unproven guy into the rotation, and generally considered to be a more impactful position on top of it.
I would also argue that Berry is more likely to be an all conference player than Haynes due to talent level and role. But that's definitely subjective.
That's my take. FWIW Zach Shaw agrees with you not me.
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/longformarticle/the-michigan-insider-subscribers-rank-michigan-footballs-25-most-important-players-for-the-2025-season-251811824/#2670808
He has Haynes at 3 and Marshall at 13 in his version of a TTB countdown.
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"Michigan's offense is dependent on good RBs"
This feels intuitive but on the other hand we are never WITHOUT a good RB. Before last game against Bama we lose our top 2 NFL-caliber backs and it might have been a problem except nope just pop in a freshman and we are all good.
As for CB well I still remember a time where next man up was kinda a big problem:
https://mgoblog.com/diaries/never-forget-michigan-secondary-time-heal
Closest we ever got to disaster at RB was Isiah Gash participating in a couple of late scoring drives for a come from behind win over Illinois in '22 after Edwards and Corum were unavailable.
@BlueNC 1:29PM, I have them as 1a & 1b. I lean toward Marshall only because we have seen him run Harball. Haynes has more hype, but until I've seen it ...
DeleteAs to value, if neither were any good or we were even a decent passing team, I'd have both these guys lower. But we are RunFirstRunOften, and should play more toward that w/a FrQB & lack of playmakers at WR/TE. Then there's the fact that RB3 is ... unknown, and not because we have great options
Both Haynes & Marshall are in my top 2o
@llAnKoToMy, Mullings was our best, most productive and most trusted RB last year. So, NO, we didn't miss Edwards in The Shoe
Jordan Marshall was an absolute BEAST against Bama; a true Harball RB. But we did see a drop-off: his backup ran for 1.8ypc ... Ben Hall was not a good RB
We did this exercise last year, and I pointed to the difference against Illinois in 2o22: corum had over 1ooyds in a half, with a TD & 6ypc. His THREE replacements had 42yds COMBINED, ZERO TDs and a lowly 3ypc ... they were not good RBs either
All three examples compare apples to apples: running behind same OL, against the same Defense, on the same day & location. Only change was the guy w/the rock
#RBmatters
I'm not going to go too deep down the rabbit hole (again) with the running back discussion, but the freshman running back Michigan put into the game against Alabama was the #78 overall player in the class of 2024. Michigan didn't put just anyone into the game; they happened to have another very good player (at least according to recruiting rankings).
DeleteIf Michigan was down to C.J. Stokes or Micah Ka'apana or Cole Cabana, that performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl probably would not have looked the same.
Cole Cabana! Lmao, I was doubtful he had the size/strength/DAWG for Harball ... in half a career, we got TWO carries out of him
Delete*Cabana & Franklin combined for SIX yards (2ypc) against mighty Bowling Green. DE had 5oyds at 5.6ypc. BC had over 1ooyds (8.4ypc) and two TDs
Again, apples to apples: same opponent, on the same day & location
#RBmatters
It's hard to know what the RB performance would look like in a hypothetical alternate reality. It is notable however that when similar concerns have been raised in the past performance has remained strong (e.g., Corum going down).
DeleteWhen Michigan needs a RB to step up they have gotten it. It may not look the exact same (more catching passes than running between the tackles for example) but the offense typically keeps humming along. Last year RB3 stepped up while RB4 looked not too good, but RB1b was criticized all year while RB1a was celebrated but also got benched at one point in favor of RB4. It was a weird season for RB, granted, but Michigan got what they needed from the position between the 4 top guys and that piece is not too unusual.
There are a few instances of Corum missing time.
DeleteOne was in '21 Maryland. Haskins was the starter but fairly well contained (under 4YPC). Michigan blew the doors open anyway with Edwards having 178 yards...170 through the air. RBs got it done.
End of '22 was of course the Edwards show but doom and gloom was predicted there (vs OSU especially) and Edwards thrived. Michigan upset OSU, won the Big Ten champ and put up 51 points in the playoff.
The Illinois game has been covered before. The RB numbers weren't as good and everyone agrees Corum >>> Stokes, but the OFFENSE actually did better in the second half without Corum than with him in the 1st. Gash and Stokes are certainly not Corum but the offense with Corum scored once (on the opening drive and then punted or fumbled the next 4 drives with Corum) in the first half. In the second half they had 4 scoring drives (maybe better to say 3.5) including the last 3 clutch drives of the game to come from behind 10-17 to win out in the end 19-17. How do you get better results with less talent - adjust the playcalling, lean onto the other 10 guys. So under a minute down 16-17, 4th and 3 in Illinois and what do they do...pass to Isiah Gash for a 1st down. FG FTW.
Gash is a dang walk on and Stokes and Dunlap weren't appreciably better. Meanwhile Corum (and Edwards) are NFL talents. So Michigan ran a bit less but used what they had to good effect. Down it's best 2 backs, the offense DID better. 12 points to 7. 4 scoring drives to 1.
Again, these guys aren't Corum but a mid RB like Stokes still had a 17 yarder and converted a 9 yard run on 3rd down. Gash caught a 20 yarder
and the aforementioned 4th down. Michigan's offense moved the ball with these guys.
The outcome could be random or might tell you something about how important the RB is.
Acknowledged, you can play out this logic at any number of positions. On OL we lost zinter and the offense kept going in '23. In '24 we lost Will Johnson and then the Gifts and the defense kept going. It's supposed to be next man up. But you rarely hear doom and gloom (no way we beat these guys with X gone) like you do at the RB positon because it's such a high profile position. Those doom and gloom predictions -- they just don't play out that way.
All positions matter (even the Long Snapper!) but some matter more than others.
IYKYK
FWIW I have Marshall 19 and Haynes 29. So I have a backup RB pretty dang high, not far outside the top 22. I think Marshall is going to be a star but if he misses time Haynes and his helpers can step in. 1a and 1b again this year but as always there is decent help ready and available to step in if when they need it. Step back but catch your balance -- don't fall off the cliff.
DeleteThis offense's fate is like all others -- they need a good QB or a good OL to be good.
The coaches don't agree with me (they prioritized spending on Haynes and freshman recruits, NOT a proven WR or QB or LT) but guess what they stunk up the house last season on offense. It's a new era and Harbaugh is gone. I don't trust Moore like I trusted the proven commodities (e.g., Wink). Hopefully Lindsey is fixing stuff and Castillo is helping newsome fix stuff and Underwood can do more in the plus column than the minus column.
The fundamental concept is here is the "replacement level" performance of a Michigan RB is pretty dang good.
DeleteMichigan's RB5, be it a freshman or a walk-on, was the best athlete on his high school team (or would be on 99% of high schools). Even if he's a walk-on type like Gash, True Wilson, or Kuzdzal he's going to be an excellent athlete with extensive experience at the position (albeit in high school). Otherwise he might be a talented freshman. Maybe the frosh can't be trusted to pick up every blitz or know every play or protect the football reliably, but he can probably produce with some adjustments in playcalling. It won't be the same as Corum! No doubt there, but you adjust. The dropoff can be mitigated.
All positions matter, some more than others. With RB the worst-case scenario is comparatively good. Ditto for WR because the offense can dictate the terms of engagement. That's simply not the case at other positions. For example a walk-on DT (or OT) maybe immediately overmatched and totally dominated due to physical differences. It's extremely rare for a walk-on DT to be even serviceable. A walk-on CB, or even a guy like a young Quinten Johnson who just doesn't know what he's doing, can blow a covereage and give up an 80 yard TD at anytime. A walk-on RB (or a walk-on WR for that matter) isn't going to affect the game that way, because the offense controls where the ball goes.*
*OL is more like defense in that sense because they are reacting to what the defense does, picking up blitzes, finding guys to block, etc.
Lmao, "hypothetical" not needed #lAnKoToMy (iYkYk) ... solid examples where all variables remain constant except RB ...it mattered, but you DODGE!
DeleteDoes MICHIGAN recruit & develop well? Also YES
We lost Hutch/Ojabo and still had an elite Defense, beating ohio in the Shoe for the first time in decades ...
We lost The Gifts (and WillJ) but still stuffed ohio & Bama
4 replies ... lAnKoToMy is fightin for his life here 😂
Honestly don't know what you're talking about or how it relates. Not my problem though.
Deleteanother DODGE ...
Delete#whiteflagaccepted
For whatever it's worth, the coaches put Haynes out there first & most during the BTN visit
ReplyDelete