Preview: Michigan vs. Michigan State

 

Aidan Chiles (image via On3)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #22 in rushing offense (212.1 yards/game) and #10 in yards per carry (5.78). The team took a little bit of a hit over the past six quarters without star running back Justice Haynes (95 carries, 705 yards, 7 TD), who missed last week's game after getting hurt against USC. Haynes could possibly return, but the running back position is still in solid hands with Jordan Marshall (25 carries, 133 yards, 1 TD last week). It's just not very deep since the next two guys are true freshman Jasper Parker (15 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD) and walk-on Bryson Kudzdal (6 carries, 30 yards, 1 TD). Starting LT Evan Link will also be out after suffering a leg injury last week, so Michigan will be starting three redshirt freshmen on the offensive line: LT Blake Frazier, RG Jake Guarnera, and RT Andrew Sprague. Michigan State is #52 in rush defense (131.3 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per carry (4.24). Against other Big Ten teams, they're giving up over 39 points per game, 5.1 yards/carry, and 181 rushing yards/game. Junior LB Jordan Hall (6'3", 238) leads the team with 51 tackles, followed by senior LB Wayne Matthews III (6'2", 230), a former Old Dominion Monarch with 41 stops. Former Michigan DT commit Alex VanSumeren (6'3", 295) ranks third on the team with 29 tackles. The only Big Ten team the Spartans have "stopped" on the ground is Nebraska (31 attempts, 67 yards, 3 TD), but that game included 5 sacks for 35 yards, so the true rushing numbers were more like 26 carries for 102 yards. In other words, Michigan should be able to run the ball pretty consistently even if Haynes is out.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #96 in passing offense (205.7 yards/game), tied for #53 in yards per attempt (7.8), and #73 in passing efficiency. Michigan is averaging just one touchdown pass per game, which seems pretty paltry. QB Bryce Underwood had perhaps the best passing game of his young career, completing 21/27 passes for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. Freshman WR Andrew Marsh caught 5 passes for 49 yards, including a one-handed catch and a screen he took for a touchdown. But the big story was redshirt freshman TE Zack Marshall, who made 5 catches for 72 yards and 1 touchdown. Michigan now has four receiving targets who have had big games between Marshall, TE Marlin Klein, WR Donaven McCulley, and Marsh, and I think that's a good sign that the Wolverines are developing a variety of targets in practice. Meanwhile, Michigan State is #111 in passing defense (251.4 yards allowed/game), #118 in yards allowed per attempt (8.2), and #131 in passing efficiency defense. They have allowed 11 touchdowns and notched just 1 interception in Big Ten play. There are four players tied for the team lead with 2.0 sacks each, but seven games into the season, it's pretty telling that nobody has more than that; overall, they're #82 in sacks per game. Their best defensive back is probably senior safety Malik Spencer (6'1", 191), who happens to be one of those guys with 2 sacks. Spencer and UConn transfer Malcolm Bell (6'2", 188) lead the team with 3 pass breakups each. With no real playmakers in the secondary, Michigan should be solid in the passing game as long as they don't try to get greedy like J.J. McCarthy did against Bowling Green a couple years ago.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #15 in rushing defense (92.7 yards allowed/game) and have held three out of four Big Ten opponents to 75 yards or fewer on the ground; the lone exception was USC's 224 yards, which seemed somewhat anomalous. LB Ernest Hausmann leads the team with 47 tackles, but new-ish starting linebacker Jimmy Rolder is catching up to him with 42. Speaking of Rolder, he replaced Jaishawn Barham, who moved to defensive end and replaced T.J. Guy. Barham has struggled at times to play his role against the run at his new position, but he will presumably keep improving and already leads the team with 7 tackles for loss. Michigan State is #106 in rushing offense (123 yards/game) and #110 in yards per carry (3.73). Sophomore RB Makhi Frazier (5'10", 218) leads the team with 94 carries for 384 yards and 2 touchdowns, and backup Brandon Tullis (6'1", 227) has what amounts to one solid game for Jordan Marshall with 35 carries for 140 yards. Quarterback Aidan Chiles is actually the team's #2 rusher with 234 yards and 5 touchdowns on 3.6 yards/carry. Michigan has faced a couple teams now with good running quarterbacks in Oklahoma's John Mateer and Washington's Demond Williams; they fared poorly against Mateer and well against Williams. Michigan State's offensive line is worse than Oklahoma's, so I think this game will fall somewhere in between when it comes to stopping the QB run. If the defense stays disciplined like last week, Michigan should be in solid shape here.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. MICHIGAN STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #57 in pass defense (215.1 yards allowed/game), #34 in yards per attempt allowed (6.4), and #42 in passing efficiency defense. They did better than I expected last week against Washington, but things were pretty awful against USC two weeks ago. The pass defense may have been helped a little bit by the absence of safety Brandyn Hillman, who is an excellent hitter but somewhat undisciplined. But Rod Moore also missed against Washington, and that wasn't a good thing. The thing that helped the Wolverines the most was probably the fact that Michigan's pass rush was flustering Williams, and the Huskies' plan to get the ball out quick was defended better by defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and his crew. Defensive end Derrick Moore had a good game, and Michigan's blitzes stopped Williams from getting outside the pocket much. Michigan now has 11 interceptions on the season after making 3 last week, and the Wolverines now rank #5 in that category. Chiles has an excellent arm and has cut down on some of the silly mistakes he made last season. Overall, he has completed 65.1% of his passes for 7.2 yards/attempt, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He was very efficient against Indiana last week (he completed 27/33 passes for 234 yards and 1 TD) in a 38-13 loss, but in the three previous Big Ten games, he completed 57.1%, 39.1%, and 47.1% of his throws against USC, Nebraska, and UCLA, respectively. Has he taken a step forward starting with Indiana, or was that just a random spike? Chiles has two good targets at wide receiver in sophomore Nick Marsh (6'3", 203), who has 36 catches for 404 yards and 5 touchdowns, and senior Omari Kelly (6'0", 188), an Auburn and Middle Tennessee State transfer who has 27 catches for 406 yards and 1 touchdown. The Spartans are #89 in passing offense (213.7 yards/game), #77 in yards per attempt (7.2), and #65 in passing efficiency.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Michigan State players offered by Michigan include: LB Semaj Bridgeman, DL Ru'Quan Buckley, OL Cole Dellinger, OL Andrew Dennis, WR Nick Marsh, DL Jalen Thompson, DT Alex VanSumeren
• Michigan State LB Semaj Bridgeman spent one season at Michigan in 2023
• Michigan State DT Alex VanSumeren is the brother of former Michigan FB/LB Ben VanSumeren and Alex was committed to Michigan at one time
• Former Ann Arbor Pioneer and Michigan State LB Antjuan Simmons is now an assistant defensive line coach for the Spartans

PREDICTION

• I picked Michigan in each category above, but it's not necessarily a decided advantage in pass defense. Michigan State has two good receivers, and the Wolverines have been susceptible in coverage at times. I expect MSU to find some success in the quick game and screen game early, and Chiles will probably hit a deep shot at some point. But I think Michigan's pass rush will eventually win out in that matchup.
• Michigan 30, Michigan State 14