RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan had a solid rushing effort last week against Maryland despite being down the top two running backs and ranks #10 nationally (223.5 yards/game) and #10 in yards per carry (5.59). Running back Jordan Marshall (143 carries, 871 yards, 10 touchdowns) should be back from the injury he suffered two games ago, while Bryson Kuzdzal (20 carries, 100 yards, 3 TD last week) had a bit of a breakout game and showed some nice speed, patience, and vision in his first career start. One key aspect may be the health of fullback/tight end Max Bredeson, who was in a boot by the end of last week's game. The offensive line has improved somewhat in the running game, despite three redshirt freshmen starting. Meanwhile, Ohio State is #2 in rush defense (80 yards allowed/game) and #4 in yards allowed per carry (2.67). They have not allowed 100+ yards on the ground since week one against Texas. Senior LB Sonny Styles (6'4", 243) leads the team with 62 tackles, followed by junior LB Arvell Reese (6'5", 243) with 59. Junior DT Kayden McDonald (6'3", 326) is a force in the middle of the defense with 47 tackles and 8 tackles for loss, and he's been more productive than Detroit Lions 1st round pick Tyleik Williams was last season. Senior DE Kaden Curry (6'3", 260) leads the team with 13 tackles for loss, and junior safety Caleb Downs (6'0", 205) plays down in the box and has made 5 tackles for loss himself. This is going to be strength against strength.
Advantage: Ohio State
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #101 in passing offense (196.9 yards/game) and #46 in yards per attempt (7.8). And they're #72 in passing efficiency. These are decent numbers, especially considering Michigan is #118 in passing attempts (279). Quarterback Bryce Underwood had one of his best passing games of the year against Maryland (16/23, 215 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). Michigan has found its #1 receiver in freshman Andrew Marsh (42 catches, 641 yards, 3 TD), who had 12 catches for 189 yards against Northwestern two weeks ago. Wide receiver Donaven McCulley (32 catches, 488 yards, 3 TD) has also been effective and dangerous at times, but Underwood's chemistry with Marsh is better. The offensive line is iffy in pass protection, and I doubt Michigan will see a sudden improvement there. The Wolverines' best chance for giving Underwood time to throw is probably to establish the run game in order to use play action effectively. The matchup with Curry (9.0 sacks) on whichever tackle, most likely RT Andrew Sprague, is a concerning one. The Buckeyes are #23 in sacks per game (2.64). On the back end, Ohio State is #1 in pass defense (126.6 yards allowed/game), #1 in yards allowed per attempt (5.1), and #6 in passing efficiency defense. They have not forced turnovers a ton in the passing game, with just 6 interceptions total; they are led by Downs and junior CB Jermaine Mathews, Jr. (5'11", 190) with 2 each.
Advantage: Ohio State
RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #11 in rushing yards allowed per game (94.0) and #10 in yards allowed per carry (2.98). There was an anomalous game mid-season against USC where Michigan totally stunk against the run, but they have been pretty respectable otherwise. In the past two weeks, it has taken opponents 51 carries to gain 132 yards. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann missed last week's game without any real explanation from him or the program, but he still leads the way with 68 tackles. He's followed by fellow LB Jimmy Rolder (57) and then two defensive backs in T.J. Metcalf and Brandyn Hillman with 41 each. The Wolverines are tied at #35 with 6.18 tackles for loss per game, including converted LB Jaishawn Barham's 6 run stuffs behind the line; Barham is mostly playing DE these days. The defensive tackles have mostly been unspectacular, but there sure are a lot of them - Damon Payne, Rayshaun Benny, Tre Williams, Trey Pierce, and Enow Etta all play a good amount of snaps. Ohio State has four running backs with 50+ carries this season, and while they put up good stats, no one truly seems special at this point, unlike last year's duo of Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Freshman RB Bo Jackson (6'0", 217) is the lead back with 129 carries for 835 yards and 5 touchdowns, but senior West Virginia transfer C.J. Donaldson (6'2", 232) is the goal line back and has 10 scores. Freshman Isaiah West (5'10", 210) has picked up more carries lately, but mostly in blowouts. Quarterback Julian Sayin (6'1", 208) is a non-factor in the run game (27 carries, 20 yards, 0 TD). Overall, the Buckeyes are #56 in rushing (170.2 yards/game) and #33 in yards per carry (4.95).
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #52 in passing defense (208.5 yards allowed/game), #31 in yards allowed per attempt (6.3), and #34 in defensive passing efficiency. The Wolverines made 11 interceptions in the first seven games, but they have just 1 interception in the last four contests. Surprisingly, the only player with multiple interceptions is backup LB Cole Sullivan (3 picks for 8 yards), and nine other players have 1 each. On the defensive line, Derrick Moore is #2 in the conference in sacks (9.5), behind Minnesota's Anthony Smith (10.5). However, Michigan is getting very little pass rush from the interior of the line, which is frustrating after we've seen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant over the past few seasons. For all the talk about Ohio State's receivers, who are formidable, their squad's volume passing numbers aren't out of this world. Sayin's numbers (79.4% completions, 27 TD, 4 INT) are good, but the team is #28 in passing (270.1 yards/game) and #5 in yards per attempt (9.4, tied with Indiana). Star WR Jeremiah Smith (6'3", 223) has 69 catches for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he sat out last week's game. Meanwhile, the breakout star this year has been junior Carnell Tate (6'3", 195) with 39 catches for 711 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he has missed three games due to injury. Michigan tried to land Purdue transfer TE Max Klare (6'5", 243), but Klare picked Ohio State and is the #3 leading receiver with 38 catches for 400 yards and 2 scores. The offensive line is giving up just 0.55 sacks per game, which is #3 in the country, behind Cincinnati (with dual-threat QB Brendan Sorsby) and Army, a team with just 97 passing attempts. In other words, even though Sayin doesn't run much, it's very difficult to get to him.
Advantage: Ohio State
ROSTER NOTES
- Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: OL Deontae Armstrong, OL Devontae Armstrong, DL Beau Atkinson, WR Mylan Graham, DE Eddrick Houston, CB Davison Igbinosun, RB Bo Jackson, DT Tywone Malone, S Jaylen McClain, DT Kayden McDonald, OL Luke Montgomery, RB James Peoples, LB Arvell Reese, TE Nate Roberts, DT Maxwell Roy, QB Julian Sayin, CB Aaron Scott, CB Lorenzo Styles, LB Sonny Styles, LB Joey Velazquez, WR Carnell Tate, CB Bryce West
- Ohio State LB Joey Velazquez played his first five years at Michigan before transferring to OSU for 2024
- Former Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia is Ohio State's defensive coordinator
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On November 30, 2024, Michigan beat Ohio State 13-10
- RB Kalel Mullings ran 32 times for 116 yards and 1 TD
- QB Davis Warren completed 9/16 passes for 62 yards and 2 INT
- Michigan held Henderson and Judkins to a combined 22 carries for 67 yards
PREDICTION
- Ohio State 35, Michigan 17
Eesh - not what I was hoping to read. It will be disappointing if we give up 35 points.
ReplyDeleteThis is assuming Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both play and are relatively healthy. If they don't, my score prediction for them would drop.
DeleteUltimately, I just don't see enough pass rush for Michigan to make it tough on Sayin to get the ball to Tate and Smith.
Do you think there’s a path to keep it close playing 5 or 6 in the box and essentially forcing them to run the ball?
DeleteIt's cliche, but true: Michigan *can't* make mistakes in this game. Their path to victory is near-perfect execution, and a bit of luck in terms of OSU stumbles.
ReplyDeleteha, close to the 37-16 ive been predicting.
ReplyDeleteosu wins rushing battle by at least 75 yds. sad to say but theyre better up front, clearly.
osu not only more talented at virtually every position, they also appear to have maybe a handful of 25 top players in country who are rolling in confidence. even winning turnover margin, i still dont see how michigan gets off the field enough or scores enough 6s to get it done
hope its a good learning experience for a very young roster. michigan has struggled to consistently execute this year & lack focus on finer details - tough to overcome those season-long issues along with the obvious talent disparity.
Drag them into a rock fight
ReplyDelete23-17, MICHIGAN
OL having a good day on the ground. Need our WRs to get open. Can we get the TEs involved?
DeleteMarshall opened up with big runs. Haynes almost certainly scores SIX. Kuz is okay; we need more
#RBmatters
RunD (starters) has been mostly fine, great on short yardage. Sayin has far too much time though
So much youth out there. Oof
Fxck Barham. That is all
Mangham has been awful. Send him back to ELansin
DeleteOnce Sayin got the 1st Down on 3&2 in the 3Q, it was over. ohio asserted themselves as the tougher team. Just bullied us
No elite RBs out there, half our Captains out ... just no chance
McCulley was finally getting open. Bryce rushing his progressions; inaccurate too ... the drop to INT on the last game of the season is just poetic
Kuz is a wasted body in passpro
#RBmatters
(-8)yds rushing in the second half ... we needed our two elite RBs
#RBmatters
TEs just not part of the game plan again. It's my only beef w/Chip: TEs are either an asset or ignored
The time of possession was striking -- 40 minutes for OSU to 20 minutes for Michigan. Michigan's 3rd down conversion rate of 11% is terrible. I'm not on the "fire Moore" wagon, but I would like to know if he has a plan -- a realistic plan -- for getting this team from this to better. Not coach-speak, but a real plan.
ReplyDeleteI cannot remember where I read it but the author said the reason for the 4-0 record was the strength of the defensive line. Hutch, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant. All of them first round picks. Benny and Moore are good but not likely to be first round picks. If we are not able to pressure the QB without blitzing, our secondary is just not good enough to go one on one with Ohio’s WR (Smith and Tate are projected future first rounder).
ReplyDeleteIf Bredeson and Marshall are healthy, at least we will be able to control the time of possession. It is very clear that the transition from SmashMouth football to RPO offense will not only take time but might not be the right strategy to beat Ohio.
I thought game was over after the first half when Marshall went with injury and Ohio has our defense figured out. Sorry Kuzdzal is not going to cut it.
Next year will be interesting. Offense should be better. Defense will likely be worse if we are not able to replace Barham/Benny/Moore. The replacement does not seem to come from the current roster (at least not along the defensive line). As many have pointed out, this has to be the priority in the portal.
There's a reason why, other than quarterbacks, very good offensive tackles and defensive linemen go high in the NFL draft.
DeleteOur 2o22 DL was called no-name because we lacked star power. But they were well coached and got the job done. 2o25, not so much. Not sure if that's wink, Esposito or both
DeleteAgree on Bredeson & Marshall. But before I join the sheronne roast, just imagine what happens if we have healthy Rod Moore, a willing Earnest Hausman, and Justice Haynes too. We were missing key parts. It's an "excuse" but it's also a lot of talent & leadership too
I think the decline of our defense under Don Brown was due to poor DT recruiting and development. I am worried we might be seeing repeat of this under Wink and Esposito.
Delete@ je93 10:25 a.m.
DeleteLooking at the injury lists for Michigan vs. Ohio State, there was a clear difference in the quality of players that were missing. First of all, OSU had nobody listed as "out for the season" while Michigan had about half a dozen. Second, Michigan's list included several starters (Rod Moore, Evan Link, Max Bredeson, Justice Haynes, etc.) and OSU's list included mostly guys who don't play. And Jordan Marshall, one of Michigan's best offensive players, barely played.
I'm not sure Michigan wins this game with Marshall, Haynes, Bredeson, etc. in the lineup, but without them...Michigan didn't have much of a chance. Bryson Kuzdzal ain't no Justice Haynes or Jordan Marshall.
Also, there's a benefit to blowing people out. Ohio State was beating teams throughout the year by 30 points (average score: 37.0 to 7.8), whereas Michigan's games were much closer (average score: 27.6 to 18.7). When you're winning by three touchdowns and can give guys a break, that cuts down on the wear and tear. For the most part, Michigan needed to play their Dudes well into the fourth quarter this season.
"It is very clear that the transition from SmashMouth football to RPO offense will not only take time but might not be the right strategy to beat Ohio."
DeleteWhat would you say is the right strategy for beating OSU?
Over on MGoBlog there was a comment about RPO, and how that offensive scheme is outdated. I asked what it should be, and the answer was, essentially, run between the tackles until the defense has to commit to stopping that, then play action over the top.
What offensive scheme do you think Michigan should implement to both beat others and beat Ohio State?
Football is won and lost in the trenches. OSU is going to continue loading up with veteran talented fronts. They've been doing that on the DL pretty consistently (*some wobble on interior DL but Edge has been good to great consistently at OSU). Ryan Day has figured out you gotta do it on OL too (being one-dimensional makes you an easy target).
DeleteFor Michigan to beat OSU we have to regain the advantage we had on both lines. It's that simple.
On OL -- it seems like we are on the right path. We couldn't beat up on the loaded up veteran OSU DL but they did go toe to toe with them. For a young OL to get to almost 100 yards on 20 carries out of the backup RBs with very little from Bryce on the ground, and only one sack given up? It was not great, but it was respectable. It should only get better from here.
On DL -- different story. They got exposed. This was a whoopin. Kept their run game somewhat in check but the cost was no pass rush whatsoever. Such a massive difference between what was happening '21-24 when we had guys who OSU just flat out could not block.
Let's not even talk about superstars like Hutch or Graham. Let's look at arguably the weakest of the DLs in 2022 when we had Kris Jenkins, Mazi Smith, Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor. Guess what -- ALL OF THEM are playing in the NFL right now.
On Saturday, OSU played it pretty close to the vest and it just felt like they could have gotten a lot more yards and points anytime they wanted to. On the ground or in the air, they could choose. The DL was the biggest reason why (IMO). Who on that unit is an NFL player - D Moore yes. The end? Maybe Benny. Maybe Pierce can get there. But this was a lot of Taylor Upshaws types and not a lot of Mike Dannas.
There's an "easy" fix and it's doing what Texas Tech did in the portal. This is THE big need for Michigan to catch OSU in 2026. Do they have the ALL IN mentality it will take to reboot the DL? I am skeptical given how the program reacted to the glaring need at QB in 2024 with reaction. IMO, the DL situation in 2026 is nearly as dire. I know I know there are some guys like Nick Marshall and Trey Pierce that have talent and even Etta that you can play but honestly I don't see more than one or two returning guys who really being up to the standard of Harrell-McGregor-Jenkins-Smith let alone the guys who are stars.
It's going to take bold action. Reallocating how you spend your NIL. Some tough decisions of guys who might want to return but also probably can be upgraded (think Olu over Crippen, think Cadeau over Donaldson, think Barner to pair with Loveland). And make no mistake it's going to take a lot of $$$$. M may need to be pushed out of it's comfort zone but that's going to be the cost of competing with OSU.
@Anon
DeleteYeah Michigan isn't winning this game with Marshall, Haynes, Link, Bredeson, and Hanson all healthy. Those guys are valuable (especially compared to a walk-on Rb) but Bryce isn't playing at a high enough level and the WRs aren't talented enough to win a shoot out with OSU -- and that's absolutely what it would have been even if our offense was scoring 30 points this game.
The issue was the defense. I'm not saying the defense didn't put up a fight, they competed here and there, but they forced just one punt before garbage time and had zero sacks and hardly any pressure at all. The injuries on defense were probably more impactful because of the caliber of player we are talking about (e.g., Hausman, Moore) but that unit was just outmanned.
The offense is kinda beside the point IMO. They are young and will get better. The defense just does not have the horses and there is no evidence reinforcements are on the way right now.
I love RPOs. Just like any system, there are weaknesses.
DeleteOne of the big weaknesses is getting a QB to read/diagnose the play correctly. There are also times where the game situation kind of dictates that you hand off the ball, but if a play is truly being read, the QB might pull and throw the ball. (For example, if you're trying to run out the clock at the end of a game, but a QB throws an incomplete bubble instead of handing off for a 1-yard gain and running another 30 seconds off the clock.)
RPOs aren't outdated. The top teams in the country are running RPOs - Indiana, Oregon, Ole Miss, Alabama, etc.
The scheme Michigan should use to beat OSU is the one they're using. I think people get too caught up in the scheme. Virtually any scheme can work if it's implemented correctly with the correct personnel. I think Michigan (for the most part) did the best they could with the personnel available. They got bullied up front by superior players. It turns out that Kaden Curry, Kayden McDonald, and Kenyatta Jackson are all better than redshirt freshmen Jake Guarnera, Blake Frazier, and Andrew Sprague, which isn't surprising because Curry and Jackson are seniors and McDonald is a junior.
Michigan's overall scheme is fine. They're doing the same stuff they did from 2021-2024, but they're attaching glance routes and bubbles to the same plays. If Kayden McDonald is going to manhandle Jake Guarnera, it doesn't matter if the run play has a WR pushing to crack a S or if the WR is running a bubble route - the chances of the run portion of that play being dead is nearly 100%.
Thunder -- okay, I like to ask questions and pose hypotheticals, so here goes: Moore calls you and says, "Thunder, I give you full authority to identify our key needs from the portal, and offer names of ideal candidates if they enter the portal." What's your list? What's your priority? Who's your top two or three dream transfers?
DeleteMan, I couldn't agree more on DL, specifically at DT
Delete*checks OU comments ... nope, not an overreaction at all:
"DL was nipple fighting with a not-good OU OL. Often, even with blitz help they couldn't get home. What happened to Berry? Another no show game ... the monsoon against Bama covered up a problem area"
@ Anonymous 6:39 p.m.
DeleteI don't know, this is a very difficult hypothetical. Obviously, I'm a football fan but I don't have encyclopedic knowledge of every roster. Assuming there are no early declarations (like Justice Haynes to the NFL) or surprise transfers, here are my top three positions of need:
1. DE
2. WR
3. C
That being said, my top 3 dream transfers don't really line up with those positions, because QB is the #1 most important position. And as much as I think the sky's the limit for Underwood, he's not there yet. So let's say...
1. QB Dante Moore (Oregon)
2. DE Colin Simmons (Texas)
3. WR Makai Lemon (USC)
Yeah, I know it was a challenging hypothetical. In addition to not knowing rosters everywhere, it's really not possible to know what good players elsewhere are considering transfer. We can dream about plucking the very best from other rosters, but that's unlikely -- they're not likely to transfer because their present team will fight to keep them.
DeleteI wish I could sit down with you and have you explain your DE, WR, and C list of needs. I would have thought DT before DE, but you're seeing something I'm not. WR I kinda-sorta get to augment what we have in Marsh. Is there a style of WR you'd seek ... deep threat, or a possession type guy, ala Jeremy Gallon or Roman Wilson? For C, I didn't realize Crippen was a graduate student, so I guess there's a drop-off behind him.
I'm trying to imagine the dynamic of actually getting Dante Moore to come to Michigan with Underwood already on the roster. If you're the QB coach -- oh, that's right, we don't have one of those -- how do you keep both your thoroughbred horses happy?
Getting a speed guy to take the top off of a defense is necessary, I think. That was the role of Roman Wilson. Even though he didn't get a ton of catches, he scored on a high percentage of them because teams had to respect the run. Michigan loses McCulley, and I don't see anyone on the roster who's ready to step up. I am not impressed by Kendrick Bell, Semaj Morgan, or Channing Goodwin.
DeleteMichigan has DTs. I don't think any will be spectacular, but I didn't think defensive tackle was a giant hole this year, either. They weren't playmakers, but you need playmakers at defensive end more so than defensive tackle. I know Derrick Moore finished the season with decent sack numbers, but those sacks came mainly against weaker competition and he got 2 sacks per game for three weeks against that weak competition. It was just a very inconsistent season. Furthermore, Michigan loses T.J. Guy, who didn't have a great year anyway.
And then the only young guy I was impressed by was Nate Marshall. Even though he was physically overwhelmed at times, he has immediate potential for 2026. But Cam Brandt, Lugard Edokpayi, etc. didn't do anything, Devon Baxter was hurt the whole year, etc. No Jaishawn Barham next year, either. Who's going to rush the passer next year and be a consistent threat off the edge?
I'm guessing Jake Guarnera will be the starting center next year if there are no roster additions. And while I thought Guarnera played fairly well, he would still be just a redshirt sophomore and a first-year player at the position. I don't think it's coincidence that Michigan had its best years with seniors there in Vastardis, Oluwatimi, and Nugent. Crippen was pretty good this year (not as good as Jim Harbaugh said at one time, but good), and I would hate for that role to take a step back in 2026.
IMO
Delete1. DT (Pierce/Etta isn't enough)
2. DE (Brandt/Nichols/Marshall isn't enough)
3. WR (agree with the need for speed)
Specific names? Who knows but you want all conference caliber guys at those positions or we'll be back to being on a clear lower level from the top tier.
Of course that's assuming everyone who is expected back will be back but I would guess there would be a few undesired departures on the OL and DB that may alter the landscape. And not expecting it necessarily but if they can get a final year out of Rod Moore that would be epic.
Guarana has earned the starting spot at OC and if he is recruited over in the portal I wouldn't be surprised to see him find that spot elsewhere.
I'm torn between DT & DE. We absolutely need a guy on the Edge who will get to the QB, or at least speed up their clock. All three losses are different games without that. But our DTs didn't do jack in pass rush; no one could shove even poor OL back into a QB
DeleteWR used to be top priority but I think Marsh showed he is an ideal RunFirstRunOften pass threat. Agree with Thunder on a speedy guy to stretch things out, but that means nothing if Bryce cannot improve his touch
Center. I like Guanera, but am not as excited or certain that he's ready to lead the unit. Get him some competition
Punter (duh)
After that, I like how we've used the Portal to fill out the Depth Chart
*I can't blame the coaches for Payne & Williams. They got the best available, but they weren't good enough. This is why I suggested last Fall for a "Conner Stallions-like" obsessed Analyst whose job is to network with other program insiders, and identify high quality guys who are worth meddling with & enticing into the Portal
I do have concerns with on-field coaching. The guys we have are talented, at least enough to ragdoll some of our weaker opponents. Benny got worse; Guy too. Is it Wink or Esposito?
"but that means nothing if Bryce cannot improve his touch"
DeleteAnd the OL getting better at pass protection, so Underwood doesn't feel the need to scramble out of the pocket so often. I don't have numbers in front of me, but my sense is Underwood scrambled out of the pocket far more than he stepped up in the pocket.
"Is it Wink or Esposito?"
The lazy answer from me is "both," but if I had to put blame on one, it would be Martindale. My reasons: he exhibited his urge to play cute with the DL last year when Mason Graham was lined up as a 5-tech. What an incredibly poor deployment of talent. And he has two years running exhibited his stubbornness to do what he wants until forced otherwise, and that tendency has to bubble down to the position coaches. In my mind the jury is out on DL rotation questions ... that may well be a Sherrone Moore thing to condition those guys for next year.
Pass protection does need to improve. Each of the five (8} starters this year were disposed of by opposing DL in a manner I hoped to see from Benny & Pierce. But Bryce pocket awareness was Freshman bad. His eyes are either everywhere or "locked in one area," his footwork is spastic, and the decision to take off is incredibly poor
Delete*sometimes. My hope is the glimpses of excellence grow for the Bowl, and multiply exponentially by next year's Game
For our DL, some blame rests on the position coach. They weren't always bad, but often ineffective and sometimes bullied or out of position ... then there's the backups, who were liabilities far too often, regardless of opponent