A win is a win. This is a common refrain around here, but this one still goes in the record books as a victory. As Herm Edwards famously said, "You play to win the game."
I have lots of issues with the offense. This was not a well organized or executed game plan, and I'll say that from top to bottom. Kyle Whittingham, Jason Beck, Bryce Underwood, the offensive line, etc., they're all accountable. I've seen a lot of heat thrown in Underwood's direction. He's not a difference maker right now, true, but other people - who are more experienced - need to be better. So he's not even my #1 problem.
Jason Beck. I think this game might have been a wake-up call for Beck. This is not to say that I don't think he's up for the challenge, but Beck got a live look at what can happen in Michigan Stadium at 7:30 p.m. on a Saturday night, when a solid MAC team takes its best shot at a big-time program. I think Beck (and some of the players) thought they would walk into the stadium, steamroll a lesser opponent, and then try to walk into the Oklahoma game after having a warmup. That's not what happened. There are two things I'm most surprised about:
- Beck said he had a specific number of touches he wanted for his skill guys. Jordan Marshall should get more than 11 carries, and Andrew Marsh should get more than 2 catches. You can't go a whole game and only find a way to get Marsh the ball twice. It's not like he's an outside X receiver who can be taken away if you double him. He's capable of catching screens, deep balls, in-breaking routes, getting an occasional reverse/end around, etc.
- The passing concepts were vanilla and/or poorly executed. Now maybe the vanilla aspect has to do with the quarterback, but guys often weren't getting open for Underwood. People get mad at the quarterback when he sits back there and doesn't throw the ball, but there has to be a place for him to go more consistently. (Yes, Underwood missed some open players/plays at times, which I'll address below.)
Hit the jump for more.
The Rhino Package. Over the summer, I talked about getting "your best eleven" on the football field. This is an old coaching staple I've clung to for a long time, and I think it has served me well. And it comes with the understanding that, yes, you do have to use different packages and personnel groupings. You're not going to have the same 11 guys out there for 70 plays on offense. That's understood. Also, Manuel Beigel isn't one of Michigan's best eleven players on offense. Nobody came into this season thinking, "No matter what, we have to find a place to get that German kid on the field who has barely played college football." And it the original plan was to have Andrew Babalola out there at the Rhino spot, then the game plan should have been changed, because we've known that Babalola was going to miss the game for a while. Maybe he will return from injury next week and kick Beigel to the sideline so the whole package looks better. Travis Johnson, Jaime Ffrench, Deakon Tonielli, and Hogan Hansen are all better football players than Beigel right now. Find ways to get them on the field.
The offensive line was bad. I'm not going to overreact to Michigan not pushing Western Michigan around up front. Michigan should be better and they should have run for 200+ yards. However, we have seen Michigan start off slowly in recent years with heavy offensive line criticism, and then they pick it up and kick it into gear as the season goes along. That's not to excuse offensive line coach Jim Harding, the players, etc. for playing poorly, but it is a reason why I don't think the offensive line's struggles are a death knell for the season. I fully believe that unit will get better, probably soon. It's a mentality, and when you get stalemated by a MAC team, it's a mentality that will likely change. The Wolverines have too many good linemen, highly regarded recruits, and solid leaders up front for this group to get pushed around consistently. I am both highly disappointed in this group and also fairly confident that they will turn it around.
Bryce Underwood plays like an entitled freshman. The off-season hype about Bryce Underwood had a lot of people thinking he was a changed man, but when the lights got bright on Saturday night, he looked an awful lot like he did in 2025. As is most often the case, the quarterback gets the most criticism when things look bad, and he gets the most praise when things look good. And things looked bad on Saturday. He was 12/22 for 170 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception; he also ran 9 times for 47 yards and 1 touchdown. Those numbers aren't awful, but they're aided by a couple big throws in the fourth quarter, including the Hail Mary game-winner. Underwood had happy feet at times. He missed a couple open receivers. He threw at the feet of an open running back. He threw the ball into traffic too often. He's also too tentative at using his feet. Late in the game, he fumbled the ball because he didn't protect it going to the ground, and that happened against Texas in the ReliaQuest Bowl last year, too. I posted on X after the game that he needs to start approaching the game like a walk-on, not like a 5-star.
I really like J.J. Buchanan. The more I watched of Buchanan from last year, the more I liked him. One of the underappreciated parts of his game is his ability to adjust to balls that are thrown behind him, a skill he showed off on Saturday night, too. He's not the fastest guy or the most exhilarating after the catch, but he's tall, has decent speed, and has excellent ball skills. His touchdown catch on Saturday night to win the game was an amazing catch, one that deserves to go down in Michigan history. Regardless of the opponent, that was a clutch play and emblematic of exactly why you want that type of receiver on your roster. I don't think any Michigan fans were questioning the addition of Buchanan to the roster, but that transfer paid off immediately. He had 6 catches for 126 yards (21.0 yards/catch) and the 1 score.
Adding one second. I feel like this has been discussed endlessly since Saturday, but here's the point I haven't seen made by very many people: if we want instant replays of everything - balls and strikes, game-winning three point attempts, etc. - then why are we drawing the line at football game clocks? The play was immediately reviewed and the Big Ten pretty quickly shared on social media the replay video of the officials discussing how much time was left on the clock. Instant replay did its job. If people want to go back to pre-instant replay days of human error, that's fine. But let's be consistent.
I realize I didn't say anything about the defense yet. I have some takes, but I've run out of time to share them unless I put off posting. The edges are good, the defensive tackles are questionable, the linebackers were solid, and the defensive backs were pretty good except for a couple coverage busts.
Your thoughts on blaming coaches (Beck specifically here) echo my own observations in the other thread. You absolutely have to understand the limitations of your people and adapt to it. Do it within your system yeah, but you gotta pick which pages of the playbook need to be emphasized and which need to be ripped out for now and put in a "come back to this later" folder.
ReplyDeleteAlso strongly strongly strongly agree with this on the OL:
"I am both highly disappointed in this group and also fairly confident that they will turn it around." There's a lot of season left.
Also -- yep Buchanan is a beast. Height and speed are one thing but having those Hemingway/Gallon instincts to adjust the ball in the air is not something every receiver possesses -- especially those that might have spent most of their HS years playing another position like QB. Dude can ball and is a massive upgrade relative to McCulley.
Where I disagree:
I am pretty happy we threw a lot to Buchanan and ran a healthy amount with Underwood. Those seem like building blocks that worked. I would not take away from either to force the ball to Marsh or run more with Marshall. We just need more plays on offense period, and that starts with converting 3rd downs.
Also disagree with identifying "Travis Johnson, Jaime Ffrench, Deakon Tonielli, and Hogan Hansen" as the guys to get out there. Hansen needs to get healthy but then I would point to Zach Marshall and whoever the 3rd OG is (or Babalola) next. If Tonielli is one of your best, he should probably be ahead of Hoffman, for starters but even Bonner seems to be ahead of him. I'm OK with keeping the Rhino if Hoffman is really your best TE, but put in your 6th best guy to do it.
I don't know that Bryce's issues are entitlement. From all reports he works his butt off and has an exemplary attitude. I think the issue is talent. Yes, talent. I know he's supposed to be a 5 star but for all the eyes that go on an athlete as impressive as Bryce we know that the real important "talent" for a QB is not arm strength or height or 40 time -- it's mental processing rate (i.e., the ability to quickly see whats in front of you and quickly make the right decision) and accuracy. Accuracy can be measured to some degree but it's a little different in a camp vs in the pocket when you're about to get hit. I think that people are still a long ways off from truly being able to assess the "talent" necessary to be successful at the QB spot. People act like Bryce is a crazy outlier if he's a bust but we also saw Shane Morris stink here. Whatever greatness Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes have/had was not something that was really assessed in advance. Those guys are adequate not great physically, but they process like nobody else and that was not caught fully despite success even at the college level. This is all to say be careful of the guys who are physical standouts when the position is more about other factors. At least have a viable Plan B in place if the best case scenario doesn't come to fruition.
Regarding Underwood ...
ReplyDeleteQ1 - How good was he in High School? He's big and athletic, sure, but how well did he execute the offense, as opposed to out-athlete others? What's a candid rear-view assessment of his game in HS?
Q2 - What are the primary challenges for a QB moving from high school to the college game? I have to imagine the game speeds up, and more of the defenders are way better than he faced in high school. What else?
He won two state championships at a freshman and sophomore. Those teams were pretty loaded everywhere. As a junior and senior he had nice runs but went out to the state champion that year ... I think ... each time. He benefitted from having two 5 star QBs go outstate in the previous two, maybe three years ahead of him in two ways. The notion of Five Star Qb in Michigan had some momentum when maybe he wasn't quite that good and Moore pretty much had to get him.
DeleteNow, make no mistake he was a legit big time power whatever it is now Qb prospect, but maybe not a walk on water #1 in the nation recruit. To begin with, everybody talked about the size, speed and arm strength. Nobody I read ever said a word about accurate. I could have missed a mention on accurate, maybe two, but it wasn't a thing. and I recall nothing about 'leadership or gigantic characte or this is a kid you want to go to war with, or any of that stuff. Not suggesting he's a bad kid or a problem kid, just nobody said anything to the effect that this kid is a born leader or saint in waiting or any of those kinds of cliches.
He's suffering some here because so far he isn't accurate. He's not horrible, but ...
On the college game being faster. Hell yeah!!! But he's a second year player, there is no excuse to be given on that issue. My opinion here is that he likely isn't quite as good as everybody had hoped. So far, what I think I'm looking at is an ok BIG Qb. Nothing More. Love to be wrong on that one.
Lbs were better than we feared.
People did say he was a born leader and hard worker and all that. And being elected a captain as a sophomore and getting nothing but accolades for his character from 2 coaching staffs... I'm surprised people keep questioning Bryce's character especially for petty things like telling a freshman RB not to F up the option read. To another set of eyes that would be an example of taking leadership.
DeleteNot saying he is going to be a great QB but it seems pretty clear he's willing to put in the work and has earned respect from teammates and coaches enough to be considered a leader
Question the talent -- I don't know if he's ever going to have the accuracy or processing speed to be a great passer -- those issues were evident last year and remain evident today. But I wouldn't question the character or work ethic. He's already handling an incredible spotlight and a lot of negative press with poise and maturity, while barely being 19 years old.
Yelling at a player on the field is leadership?
DeleteWho got on Bryce last week?
Even in this game, Bryce pitched an Option over a defender, nearly creating a TO
Bryce took a yard loss when he could have thrown it out of bounds
Who yelled at him?
Who yelled at Hill after the ridiculous penalty?
On the TD, it looked like Earls missed the switch; Berry talked with him, but no yelling
Chase Taylor picked up the wrong guy and ended up with Hill; they had a talk, but no yelling
Being a leader isn’t about putting your teammates on blast after a mistake, especially if you’re the most mistake prone on the team
I’m not calling out Bryce’s character, but leadership development comes with learning moments. Yelling at Hiter on the field had the same (bad) look as yelling at Haynes on the sideline last year in Norman
You don’t know football, and you don’t know leadership Lank. Maybe it’s time for another name change?
someone's real worked up and thirsty for attention
Deletekeep the leadership tips coming please don't save them for just the rec center
how do I subscribe to the leadership newsletter?
DeleteHaha, another two responses
Delete#obsessed
#namechange
#dotheyknow
Try sprite to quench that.
DeleteBack to the lad playing Qb for us. UTEP, early in the third quarter he comes to the line of scrimmage focused on Buchanan and I'm thinking not much else, at least thats how it's looking to me. Buchanan beats his guy nicely and Underwood seeing the back of the defenders helmet, drops a very nice little ball right over the top of the kid's face mask. I thought that was maybe the best ball I've seen Underwood throw for us. I could do with a little less demonstration of intent early in the play, but still, it looked like coaching starting to take hold followed by an excellent toss.
DeleteIs anybody else really liking the uniforms? Thats Maize to my way of thinking ... finally. Our staff appeared to be mostly matching up as well, as was the M on the filed. I was happy.
When we discussed the Rhino last month, it was about playing our best 11 (then semantics)
ReplyDeleteBabaloa made sense to get on the field more … our Giards - who have not played well at MICHIGAN - were not only outside the best 11, but not fit for the role, which at Utah included a lot of pulling
Hopefully we just overlooked an opponent, looking at OU instead. Probably not, but that’s our best chance of avoiding a very bad season
Nobody has seen Bablola play a single snap of college football. Ffrench has been buried on the depth chart and barely touched the field at 2 schools. Tonielli is a 4th string TE as a senior, behind 2 guys who are now seemingly behind a walk-on H-back and a converted DL blocker in the playing rotation. Moa and Robinson are also freshman who have barely played. I'd personally be glad to see Hansen out there but I think that hurts our run game.
DeleteUltimately, anyone asserting they know who the best 11 is likely blowing smoke. Link might be our 3rd OG and he might be better than all of the guys listed above.
Anyway -- I'll put out the challenge. name your best 11. godspeed.
One may not like the OG play but -- you gotta put 2 out there.
One may not want 6 OL on the field but that's Beck's offense it seems and TE options are...well, TE is a weak spot.
Ffrench and Tonelli wouldn’t be my first choices as examples either, but Mr Hypothetical and Speculation may consider this: if college teams could trade, would the Wisconsin, Minnesotas and G6 teams prefer a former 5star in Ffrench at WR, a TE who has actually played TE in the Power4, or a German new to football, who tried defense and recently switched to OL?
DeleteDemand would not be great, but my guess is the latter would have the least calls …
“One may not like the OG play but -- you gotta put 2 out there.
One may not want 6 OL on the field but that's Beck's offense it seems and TE options are...well, TE is a weak spot.”
This sounds almost exactly like what I said a month ago. Sure, we will get stuck with subpar Guards, because that’s a position on the field … but because they’re not very good, I hoped Beck would not force another one on when when a blocky-catchy TE (Marshall) or FB could help the run AND serve as a potential target too
As for your “challenge,” you’re demonstrating a lack of understanding the game (again)
The scenario matters: down and distance, spot of the ball, time on the clock … all that matters when deciding which group presents the best chance
Too easy
In a hypothetical world of trades (like the NFL or MLB) you don't trade for a TE if you already have plenty of good options there but you do trade for a TE if you are short of good options. No team thinks to themselves -- hmmm let me look in the trade market for the best available player regardless of position.
DeleteBiegel and Hoffman (and probably Efobi too) aren't playing because they are objectively in the "best 11" they are playing because we need OG and TEs to execute the offense.
I'm not sitting here defending Biegel or arguing he should play a lot. I'm saying if you're gonna play a 6th OL as a blocking TE -- put your best option for that role out there. To me that seems more likely to be Norton or Link than it does Biegel. That's my "fix".
I don't believe you can just throw Ffrench or Moa or Hiter or whatever skill position guy me or you happen to be individually optimistic on out there instead of a 270-320 pound guy who can block. The concept of "best 11" is fine if you happen to be talking about a 2nd TE vs another WR or whatever other scenario you want to invent on the margins where you are talking about the 11th best guy out of 11. It cannot be extended very far though -- it only works in a very limited spectrum -- because football requires a collection of very different people with very different skill sets.
The most basic way to illustrate this is Henson/Brady or Hurt/Tagavailoa. Those guys were not only in the "best 11" they were probably the "best 2", but nobody plays 2 QBs simultaneously. Barry Sanders/Thurman Thomas at OSU. etc. This concept isn't hard but it illustrates why "best 11" isn't a serious idea, except in very limited circumstances.
I've got no issue if they want to play Z Marshall instead of Beigel. I would be glad to see them try it. But if Beck runs his offense with the intention of having an impact blocker at TE (aka Rhino) then I am not going to pretend it's as simple as putting the chosen Rhino on the bench because his real life Madden Rating is 70 while some other skill position guy's is 80. Dude is likely 6'0 and/or 180 lbs. That ain't gonna work unless you change the offense. It's not a hard idea and it's not worth arguing against.
You dodged the challenge to name the Best 11 by listing another reason why the Best 11 is not an idea that holds up to scrutiny. Thank you for your services.
-IYKYK
#HIU
No Lank, YOU dodged to provide a scenario for best 11 … because you don’t understand the game. I gave you some examples, but not even that was enough
DeleteMy response is backed by portal history: a 5star WR in the postal is going to demand attention, and find himself at a place like Ann Arbor. Likewise a TE (even if he hasn’t played much); Prieskorn landed at Ole Miss
I can go on. But can you name OL who just switched from DL, that other teams have pulled in with a bag of cash? Offered?
Hypotheticals mean nothing when we have reality, right in front of us
#outsmarted
Dunno what you are talking about amigo. Seriously. Portal isn't a place where trades happen. Trades were the hypothetical you introduced after you argued against using hypotheticals.
DeleteI'll point you back to the point:
I'm arguing against Best 11 theory.
You don't like the obvious hypothetical so I drilled down to the specifics and asked you name the best 11 and you dodged, to say it depends on the context. Which is what I said a month ago. And while I don't expect you to remember that because LOL who cares -- it's relevant cuz I keep saying the same thing.
This coach, like most coaches has to run an offense. He isn't just playing a video game where he can run a whole different personnel scheme whenever he wants.
Another example of this is how Goodwin is playing over the hyped 5-star freshman and Ffrench (who theoretically "demand attention"). Goodwin isn't much of a receiver but he is a reliable vet who does his job as a blocker. Bryce if he is throwing is probably throwing to JJ and Marsh and his RB before he throws to Goodwin so there's not much impact there relatively of an incrementally worse 4th option -- but since WRs are blocking more than half the time -- there's a difference in the run game and receiver YAC opportunities if Goodwin is in there doing his job. So he plays quite a bit.
Madden rating is not what it's about -- it's about running your offense, and complementing your most important players.
Beck isn't doing it wrong. You're making a bad argument that underscores a lack of understanding about the game. The hypotheticals reflect the reality.
-IYKYK
----------------------------------
I can reframe but I would guess you will duck this too.
It is first and 10 at the 25. You are just starting the game against Iowa, first quarter, 0 to 0. Who are your starting 11 if you are playing your "Best 11"?
Start with what I'll assume is common sense consensus -- use the same 5 OL Beck starts and same QB, RB, 2 WR. That's the 8 guys who saw the field on most snaps (minimum 58 out of 63 total) plus Marshall at RB (standard rotation at the RB spot has 34 marshall +26 hiter +3 kuzdal puts us at 63). Nothing controversial.
DeleteThat's 9/11 spots lock in and after that the "Best 11" can be a conversation. Beck's approach was to split the last 2 spots with these 5:
Hoffman 48 snaps
Biegel 28
Goodwin 21
Marshall 17
Owens 14
Is this a problem? Is it suboptimal?
It seems to me like a healthy mix of FB, extra WR, extra OL, H-back, and/or TE. No gimmicks like 2 RB or 2 QBs just leaning into different looks with blockers to help out your primary playmakers (QB, RB, WR).
Two responses, an hour apart because not even Lank agrees with Lank
Delete#selfown
#notsmartenough
#tooeasy
Exactly the response expected. Duck the challenge in favor of insults and hashtags. No emojis tho? Disappointing. Sad. Maybe next time. xoxox
DeleteOutsmarting you is not an insult, but a result. A common one
DeleteYOU answered the question Lank, and hour after asking … keep it together!
In your answer, you finally get it:
“best 11” is not about Madden ratings (lol, 4o times, etc. Position groups and game scenarios matter. You didn’t under the assignment, because you don’t know the game. I am proud that these exchanges have developed your knowledge & understanding of the game
But hey, this reminds me: does the fam know I have you so obsessed? Do they know?
Did we run out of hashtags now too?!? Sad!
DeleteAnyway, good to see the duck population remains strong in greater Sactown area.
Speaking of obsessed lets see who needs to get the last word in.
I accept your white flag Lank. No need to thank me for helping you understand the game
DeleteI knew you could do it! JEDUB
DeleteHow bout Bryce MF Underwood pulling out the biggest win of his career right after his worst game ever?
ReplyDeleteI’m still frustrated by how he carries the ball and some poor decisions with the pass. And, as a Captain, I didn’t care to see him chewing out Hiter on the botched Option play
RBs are due for a game; neither have shown much. Marshall is still looking for the big play, and for some reason he carried the ball with his inside arm on the TD that ran laterally
No Link. Both Guards were meh, with Norton missing blocks on two pulls; Efobi with some knucklehead mistakes on top of a bad day … gotta get better at OL. Hoffman & Owens helping the case for a Rhino
Defense might be legit. Other than a couple bone headed mistakes, my lone gripe was rotations: Chase Taylor keeps getting lost, Jordan Young made me nervous when he was out there, and Cam Brandt again managed to do nothing … even going Boney was more disruptive, and he barely saw the field
Was that the best game of punting we’ve ever seen? Both guys were gems
Proud of our boys. After everyone came down on them, they stuck together and played their asses off
I think this is how we win, run the Dampier offense with BU running 15-20 times a game, throw it 10-15 times a game, D up. I think the OL and RBs' come around and there is your formula. It will take a great defense, mistake free offense, and a top running attack.
DeleteDoable.
I mean, I was hoping to take advantage of what I think is a great receiver room, but the goal is to win the game.
Worked in 2021. Run it back.
on that one pass to Savion, down the sideline, the threat of Underwood running scared the crap out of two OU defenders, abandoning coverage
DeleteThat’s it. Dampier + DRob. The run opens up the pass, even against an elite D
Like Thunder wrote, a win is a win. Having said that, the outcome of this game could have been easily been a loss. We were lucky to recover the two fumbles.
ReplyDeleteI thought the offense remains unimpressive despite the improvement over last week. Offensive Line is still not moving people. False starts/players lining up incorrectly etc. We are wasting the talent of Jordan Marshall and JJ Buchanan. Have we become Iowa 2.0? Is Bryce Underwood Orji 2.0?
As for the defense, they played well and won us the game with the INT but I felt they are still untested. We have not faced a team with decent Offensive Line. My gut feel is the defense will be exposed when we face a team with good offensive line play. Despite the win, I still think this is an 8 or 9 win team at best.
Defense has looked good, but you’re right in that we have not played a good O
ReplyDeleteAs for Orji … take a look at his production in Vegas. Makes Moore/Campbell look like geniuses
Offense was impressive in not turning it over against an elite defense that wants to turn you over. One inopportune fumble or INT and the script is flipped. But again -- this is Oklahoma -- likely a top 10 defense.
ReplyDeleteEarning only 10 points is nothing to throw a parade for but we beat OSU with less in '24, and the offense looked a whole lot better Saturday than THAT.
Expectations are modest -- need to manage the QB spot -- not unlike 2024 and 2025. Except that Bryce, like Denard, has the talent to hit some explosive plays through the air and his legs are a massive weapon. Need to just build comfort incrementally week to week in the run game and not put too much on Bryce in the pocket.
This is a lot like the offense people wanted to see in '24 -- built for Orji. But Bryce is just worlds more talented and capable.
You can win a lot of games this way by just leaning into your stellar D, avoid turnovers, and move the ball on the ground.
-IYKYK
I agree that Iowa will be a big test for this team given their supposedly stellar OL and our depth issues at DT. 9 win season would be over consensus expectations (over under was 8.5) and with the win against OU it's definitely in play. Iowa and PSU look more winnable than they did a couple weeks ago, and so does Oregon. Minnesota and Rutgers aren't scaring anyone, even with homefield on their side. I'd put the floor at 7 and the ceiling at 10 -- but 10 still feels like a longshot unless there is a lot of improvement on O.